Developer: Property market collapsing without migrants

Melbourne apartment developer and AFR rich lister, Tim Gurner, has attacked the federal government for turning away international students and temporary migrants, claiming the slump in immigration is destroying the property market:

“I am definitely not very optimistic at the moment, the economic shock is coming. It won’t bypass us,” Mr Gurner said as part of a property webinar…

“We didn’t support them [temporary migrants]. We told them to go home. It’s just the most insane thing I’ve ever seen in my career without a doubt”…

“We have treated immigrants [which drive the residential market] like the second cousin, when they have built our economy and built our cities for the last five to 10, even 20 years”…

An exodus of students drove a tripling of residential vacancy rates in the inner city of Melbourne in April, according to new figures published by the Melbourne City Council…

“The rental market had taken a massive hit. It’s my biggest concern,” Mr Gurner said. He said rents had fallen between 10 and 30 per cent, which if sustained would impact residential values.

“We’ve just completed 140 apartments with 100 of them in the letting pool.

“We’d normally lease them all in two hours with one inspection. We’ve leased half of them in six weeks”.

Suck it up Tim. You’ve made out like a bandit as Melbourne’s population exploded by more than 1.4 million people (40%) over the past 15 years on the back of mass immigration:

This extreme growth has been an unmitigated disaster for incumbent residents who have been shoe horned into smaller and more expensive housing, been forced to endure longer commutes on over-crowded roads and sardine-packed trains, and have been required to fund the expensive infrastructure required to accommodate the bigger population.

Of course, developer parasites like Tim Gurner support perpetual population growth because it is in their own self interest to do so. They get to privatise the gains while socialising the costs on the broader public.

A Ponzi scheme is no way to apply government policy for the good of the people.

Developers like Gurner should meet the needs of Australians. Not the other way around.

Leith van Onselen

Comments

  1. The UsurperMEMBER

    In what world are falling rents a bad thing?! No one complains if food, or electricity or petrol falls, but rents – ‘OMG WE NEED MORE PEOPLE NOW HELP ME GOVERNMENT’

    • So real capitalism isn’t good enough for them? They bark ‘supply and demand’ on when it’s going their way but require government assistance in all its forms otherwise. Its called crony capitalism.
      No limits to greed and arrogance either.

      • buttzilla twennythree

        doesn’t matter…. china is closed… they’re not coming back…

        • Article. It’s a blip

          The Chinese dirty money is still flowing in
          Billions – China & Hong Kong etc.
          Maybe more than ever.

          But the usual route of washing the Chinese dirty money into Australian residential property as both a safe haven (no repatriation or proceeds of crime sharing treaty with China) has been temporarily redirected.

          The usual flow of the Chinese dirty money (over $80 billion of dirty money in the last 5 years alone) has been to acquire a low end developers cage unit or a very modest established Australian residential property.

          Kick out any the Australian tenants or convert the new cage housing apartment block into a migrant only zone replete with Chinese ‘controlled’ building manager and paid off councils.
          (Why we have 116,000 Australian homeless and another 340,000 seeking affordable housing)

          Then the Chinese criminal syndicate will rent out the dwelling via an letting agent to a lead transient migrant carefully selected to be transient departing long before the ‘lease’ is up.

          Then the dwelling is sublet with 8 or 9 migrant guest workers on pretext temporary Visas.

          The PR is the proxy and he declares a minimal rent say $400 a week & also claims negative gearing.
          That’s his kicker as PR proxy plus a cut as business manager of the Chinese dirty money ‘investment’

          The cage unit or small modest ex Australian dwelling is then filled up with 8 or so Chinese, Malay, Thai, Indian, Bangladeshi, Nepalese third world poor migrant guestworker pretext ‘foreign student/skilled/working
          holiday/non NZ born SCV/protection/partner etc visa holders.
          All paying $150 a week for the ubiquitous cash in hand ‘room bunk share, bag of rice & toilet roll’ deal.

          The Chinese money laundering syndicate is pulling some $1,200 a week net cash untaxed from one dwelling.
          A ‘manager’ in the cage unit or dwelling collects the cash for a reduced rent and is not on the lease.

          Any problems or complaints?
          The PR proxy owner blames the letting agent.
          The letting agent blames the lead tenant (long gone)
          Wait a while & do it all over again.
          This is why almost all attempted prosecutions fail.

          This model both provides the safe haven for the Chinese criminal, income for the proxy PR and rivers of untaxed cash for the Chinese money laundering investment syndicate.
          $500k unit / $62,000 a year cash return
          12% return
          It’s a cash flow – not a capital gain model.
          House prices fall? great – buy more
          Interest rates go up or down? – immune

          How many modest ex Australian dwellings of cage units now occupied by migrant guestworkers on TR?

          94% of the TR migrant guestworkers rent. (ABS) in ‘private shared accommodation’ / code for bunkshare.
          90% or 2.25 million TR are in Sydney or Melbourne.
          Say a modest 6 per dwelling. Twice the Australian occupancy.
          That’s 375,000 migrant TR occupied dwellings in just Sydney & Melbourne.
          10 years low end housing supply.
          Vast fetid migrant only slums to the horizon.
          Whole suburbs and much of both cities CBD stare you in the face doing this.
          As example: Regis Pitt St Sydney CBD – 282 units & over 2,000 occupants mostly Thai & Chinese vice workers, spivs, pimps, misfits, Indian & Nepalese slum clearance & rurals or backpackers trafficked in on a visa pretext.
          Go sit on the seat in the lobby sometime and wonder why it’s like a third world railway station at 2am – where are they all coming from & going to?

          -/-
          The weak point in all this is having enough third world migrants on TR visa alibis flooding in to pack up and maintain the occupancy density.

          Well we still have 2.5 million TR third world unskilled migrant guestworkers on visa alibis in Australia.
          In visa breach / living & working illegally.

          No reason for any of them to be here with millions of Australians unemployed and online education means zero reason for a ‘foreign students’ to even be allowed in.
          (Labor of course now wanting to give them Australian welfare rather than force exit them all)

          What the property market is reacting to is that with the China virus & border restrictions- it won’t be 3 million third world migrant guestworkers in 2 years (prior trend)

          But the Chinese and other foreign criminal syndicates are still be washing in their dirty money.

          Buying anything that is a bargain when the property market collapses – for the cash flow not the capital gain.

          So they will pool their money to ‘invest in ‘small business’, leisure, vice. gaming & food – anything that can provide the safe haven and also the ability to access cash so they can corrupt it.

          And once the migrant inflow is restored – back to their old model – mostly old established very modest low level Australian dwellings – cage units & little old shacks in our main cities in the middle & outer suburbs.

          As long as its in or near a migrant zone, a migrant friendly council, close to a train station and a shopping trolley (that can be abandoned by the migrant tenants) distance to Coles.
          That’s their buying criteria.

          So a blip.
          In a while the TR migrant influx will pour in.
          And the Chinese & other foreign criminal syndicates will continue their term trend of being the cash in hand slum landlord of the TR migrant guestworkers in Australia.

          • Used to live near Springvale in Melbourne. Was never a flash suburb 30+ years ago but run down wooden shacks were selling for circa $1Mill last year. All of these houses were occupied by the people you mention, 15+ to a 3 bed house. All working either in the 100’s of local Viet/Chinese/Asian eateries or being van’d out to the fruit and veg farms to work for farmers who never advertise locally. All it would take is for ATO to take a major interest in all these on-goings to get a grip on the issue but without any shadow of a doubt, the FED government and every State and commercial entity down from there is up to their necks in this collection of scams and schemes. In fact our entire federal parliament is nothing other than a collection of vested interests who have no moral right setting the agenda and voting on it. Currently in the UK where the same people in parliament are running their schemes, over here right now it is about keeping the ‘City of London’ and its conduits to the offshore tax havens open and thriving, hence the real reason for brexit (not that any of the dumb voters had any clue about this).But the farmers still want EU workers to fly in so they can exploit them properly. The only jolly thing to report is that all the right wing nut jobs running the place are out of their depth dealing with the real responsibility of the corona virus.

          • Always enjoy your posts Mike MB. I think to myself just needs graphics to get the point across to more people.

            I’m imagining a website with flash or something similar and humour. There used to be a web game ‘catapult’ could change the cats to temporary visa holders and blast them home.

            Use the Chinamans own weapon against them , propaganda.

  2. GunnamattaMEMBER

    Rich Chinese Snapping up Luxury Homes From Singapore to Sydney
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-25/china-luxury-home-buyers-are-popping-up-from-singapore-to-sydney

    I particularly liked

    “It’s been flat-out,” said Monika Tu, founder of Black Diamondz, an Australian company that caters to Chinese buyers of luxury real estate.
    Since March, Tu has sold A$85 million ($55 million) of prime property, with about half the sales to Chinese clients who were in Australia when the pandemic hit. That’s a 25% jump from earlier in the year. The homes, priced between A$7.25 million and A$19.5 million, are all in Sydney’s well-heeled, ocean-front suburbs such as Point Piper.

    A gradual easing of virus restrictions is making it easier for wealthy Chinese to view properties and complete purchases in nearby Asian hot spots like Shanghai, Seoul and Sydney. In another favorite Singapore, virtual tours and photos have been enough to seal multi-million dollar deals, pointing to how transactions are evolving. That’s in contrast to London and New York where real estate remains sluggish amid lockdowns.

    Chinese buyer inquiries for South Korean property increased 180% in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, while inquiries on New Zealand homes jumped 75%, according to data from Juwai Iqi, a real estate firm. Searches dropped 32% in the U.K. and 18% in the U.S.

    Foreigners can only buy new homes in Australia, though the very rich can get around these restrictions by applying for “significant investor” visas, which give them an easy path to residency, allowing them to buy existing real estate as well.

    • The UsurperMEMBER

      I’m still not sure why we allow foreigners to buy property at all. Especially Chinese. I can’t buy property in China, why should they be able to buy property here?

        • To which I will add: proof of Australian funding source for deposit, and proof of Australian finance.

          • Well considering that our parasite politicians still haven’t implemented the final phase of the money laundering rules they agreed to well over a decade ago, I would say things are exactly where they want them to be. Suitcases full of cash buying up everything they can get their hands on and our local turds filling their pockets at the real populations expense.

    • Chinese, make no mistake, will buy everything world wide, no property mkt will escape….they are about to dis-stabilize global property….

    • It’s the usual fuqing beat up, isn’t it? if the average price is $8.5 million she’s sold ten properties in ten weeks, five to Chinese.
      WHEN WILL THIS MYTH THAT FOREIGNERS CANT BUY ESTABLISHED PROPERTY, HERE, END? They apply to FIRB and they get approved. 32,000 approvals a year. How hard is it to fact check something: Hard when it comes to discussing real estate in the Australian media.

    • Would love to see this company go down – which would be most effective?

      1) Convince Trump on Twitter that Black Diamondz is a CCP front.
      2) Convince the CCP that capital flight is occurring via this company.
      3) Have the FIRB do it’s job… just kidding.

      • DominicMEMBER

        Get Trump to bomb the muthafugga!

        Black Diamondz becomes, er, charcoal. (Any difference?)

  3. Developers like Gurner should meet the needs of Australians. Not the other way around.

    Well, that’s a pretty quaint notion. I thought capital’s only purpose was monetary accumulation. Whether it’s building apartments, selling slaves, pimping your grandmother.
    Doesn’t matter what.
    As long as it can be done with a surplus and at scale.

    The concept of “Australians” doesn’t even come into it. Literally. It’s just making money.

        • -2.

          To a point. Though many wanted appeasement, Britain in 1940 chose to fight back against the bully, regardless of the cost.

          The Chinese Communist Party is this generation’s Nazi party. The sooner Western democratic governments recognise and act on this fact, the better.

          What business chooses to think and/or do in such circumstances is irrelevant; National Interest, as directed by the government of the day, wins out.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Yes, yes!
      And after the banks get their dues, anything left over is yours to keep!
      Marvelous!

    • DominicMEMBER

      Capital’s aim is to expand — preferably via the mechanism that is capitalism.

      Unfortunately, capitalism died many years ago and cronyism appear to be the order of the day.

      Work hard in a competitive environment? GTFO! Bribe someone to grease the way, instead …

      What moron wants to work so hard when pollies come so cheap?

      • The ABC says they are foreign students, then says this:
        “With no income at all, they’re just one example of the many Australians who simply can’t scrape enough together to pay rent right now.”
        So they are both foreigners and Australians! Marvelous.

        • Yep ABC has been tasked with blurring the lines around what it means to ‘Australian’ in 2020…. cos it sure as fvck ain’t what it used to be. ScoMo and the great Aussie sell-out rolls on, pandemic or not.

        • Great point. Schrodinger’s immigrant who is Indian and Australian at the same time!

          an international student living in Wantirna South, lost her position as a florist

          A student and florist at the same time!

  4. MajulesMEMBER

    to much immigration=overheated property market. Overheated property market mostly benifits mega rich property developers that are featured on the rich list!! i wonder why he is suddenly so worried about the welfare of those wishing to come here?? Surely not self interest

  5. “We didn’t support them [temporary migrants]. We told them to go home. It’s just the most insane thing I’ve ever seen in my career without a doubt”…

    When he says “we” he doesn’t actually mean himself does he? Otherwise, with all those empty units, you would think that he personally could support a whole lot of them.

    • Thinking the same. “We” doesn’t mean him.

      Society is only to sponge off, not contribute to.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Yes, I want to ask him just what is HE doing to support those folks. Sounds like he could actively support them with some cheap / free accomodation, but has he made such an offer I wonder….?

  6. migtronixMEMBER

    “We didn’t support them [temporary migrants]. We told them to go home.” who stopped your industry from supporting them?

  7. GlendaFMEMBER

    “We didn’t support them [temporary migrants]. We told them to go home. It’s just the most insane thing I’ve ever seen in my career without a doubt”…
    Ummm…actually the most insane thing I’ve ever seen in my lifetime is that the average house price has risen from 3-4 times the average salary to 10-12 times…. now that’s insane. Sending temporary migrants home when they no longer have work, that’s simple logic!

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      this is a condition that’s common with very wealthy people in Australia, its quite ugly, what happens is your head disappears up your own ar$e so far and deep you end up looking like Jerry Harvey or Lucy Turdball, quite a shocking disease

    • Jumping jack flash

      “the most insane thing I’ve ever seen in my lifetime is that the average house price has risen from 3-4 times the average salary to 10-12 times”

      10-12 times is nothing. Consider what it will be in 2050!
      Nothing is overpriced, nothing is unaffordable. It is all about the eligibility for obtaining the correct amounts of debt to pay the prices.

      If you look at it that way, then a whole lot of other things start making sense, including but not limited to 2 decades of manipulating interest rates down, the introduction of immigrant slaves and foreign investors, the starting of QE, and pretty soon a UBI or ongoing wage subsidies.

      • GlendaFMEMBER

        I’m about to incur to wrath of Peachy here, but here it goes…. how in God’s name can this insanity continue????
        How can people who can’t afford to rent a house and earn nothing/next to nothing, buy a house for $1m+ I still just can’t get my head around it!!!

        • Jumping jack flash

          “how in God’s name can this insanity continue????”

          its pretty simple really:
          “manipulating interest rates down, the introduction of immigrant slaves and foreign investors, the starting of QE, and pretty soon a UBI or ongoing wage subsidies.”

          Plus whatever else is required to make people eligible for the amounts of debt that are required to keep it going.

          There’s no risk, so don’t even worry. Houses are worth whatever they say they are worth. 1 million, 10 million, 100 million. It doesn’t really matter. At the end of the day its just a parameter in a function that works out how much debt can be attached while still maintaining the acceptable level of LVR. If there’s any problems, the house is sold to someone who is eligible for the correct amount of debt, and the original amount of debt plus any interest is recovered out of that new pile of debt.

          No risk at all.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          And don’t forget that the 5th largest lender in Aussie mortgages is (drum roll…) “The Bank of Mum and Dad”. Nope, not kidding. They seriously are.

          The whole sh!thshow is one giant ponzi scheme.

    • Charles MartinMEMBER

      Add him to the list …

      Also “We’ve just completed 140 apartments with 100 of them in the letting pool.
      “We’d normally lease them all in two hours with one inspection. We’ve leased half of them in six weeks”

      Quit your whinging, you said sweet FA when your schitboxes where selling and renting like crazy.

      • MountainGuinMEMBER

        Im sure if he wanted to let out all the apartments in a few hours he could… just drop the price to make it attractive.

        • billygoatMEMBER

          @Mountain Yes they could drop prices but seems like every other landlord holding out for return of students & back packer crowd, Airbnb market or local Ozzie’s crowding 4-6 “flatnates’ Into a 2-3 bedder and getting $250! – $300 per week per bed.
          Asking rents up there and stock growing at rate of knots.

    • Staggering really. The fig leaf has well and truly been removed from this economic mutation.

      They’re not even pretending anymore. The property parasites mantra “foreign buyers and migrants are having no effect on the property market” has been dropped.

      We now have a chorus of fat addicted trough feeders screaming like Jim Cramer for their next feed https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EklCI7D7Rns

  8. His next logical course of action should be to burn down all excess apartments to inflate the value of whats left.
    Create a shortage and profit.
    I hope he goes broke.

  9. Jumping jack flash

    There seriously must be 2 types of these “temporary migrants”.

    One type must be the 3rd world slaves who are used to steal wages from to create the capacity for business owners to acquire more essential debt. These types can never aspire to own their own house-shaped piece of debt, they are here to essentially work for free, and who cares where and how they live as long as they can get to work on time to start their 20-hour shift.

    The other type must be the ones who already possess the debt/money (who really cares how and where it came from), to hand over to those lucky property owners/developers wishing to sell their properties for incredible prices to generate the capital gains for themselves and everyone else, and make themselves instantly and insanely rich in the process.

    I take it the latter type is who this guy is crying about.
    Sometimes it is a tad confusing.

    Both types are vital to support the New Economy. At least, they are in Australia.

  10. Tiliqua scincoidesMEMBER

    What happened to all the property industry representatives have been running the narrative that immigration doesn’t affect house prices? Where are they now?

    • Ukraine fnMEMBER

      They have come out from behind the curtain.

      Trouble is this Wizard of Ausz is scarier after being exposed. Hellbourne and Shitzny are beyond saving now anyway.
      These Developers have no shame and no sympathy should be given as they (hopefully) go down the drain.

  11. Any politician that runs on an aggressive anti-immigration policy will smash the elections.
    It’s blindingly revealing that both Labour and Liberal are in tandem on this issue and want more immigration.
    If I have ever seen an issue that pulls apart politicians from the people, its this issue.

    • Identifying competent, electable politicians who DON’T own IPs would be a start.

  12. Surely this Tim Gurner leech needs to go and queue up for Job Keeper allowance? Sounds like he’s down 30% or so by my calculations… I really feel for ya Tim Gurner
    #TimGurner #HighEarner
    #PonziMaster

  13. Sorry was meant to be here as comment.

    Article. It’s a blip..

    The Chinese dirty money is still flowing in
    Billions – China & Hong Kong etc.
    Maybe more than ever.

    But the usual route of washing the Chinese dirty money into Australian residential property as both a safe haven (no repatriation or proceeds of crime sharing treaty with China) has been temporarily redirected.

    The usual flow of the Chinese dirty money (over $80 billion of dirty money in the last 5 years alone) has been to acquire a low end developers cage unit or a very modest established Australian residential property.

    Kick out any the Australian tenants or convert the new cage housing apartment block into a migrant only zone replete with Chinese ‘controlled’ building manager and paid off councils.
    (Why we have 116,000 Australian homeless and another 340,000 seeking affordable housing)

    Then the Chinese criminal syndicate will rent out the dwelling via an letting agent to a lead transient migrant carefully selected to be transient departing long before the ‘lease’ is up.

    Then the dwelling is sublet with 8 or 9 migrant guest workers on pretext temporary Visas.

    The PR is the proxy and he declares a minimal rent say $400 a week & also claims negative gearing.
    That’s his kicker as PR proxy plus a cut as business manager of the Chinese dirty money ‘investment’

    The cage unit or small modest ex Australian dwelling is then filled up with 8 or so Chinese, Malay, Thai, Indian, Bangladeshi, Nepalese third world poor migrant guestworker pretext ‘foreign student/skilled/working
    holiday/non NZ born SCV/protection/partner etc visa holders.
    All paying $150 a week for the ubiquitous cash in hand ‘room bunk share, bag of rice & toilet roll’ deal.

    The Chinese money laundering syndicate is pulling some $1,200 a week net cash untaxed from one dwelling.
    A ‘manager’ in the cage unit or dwelling collects the cash for a reduced rent and is not on the lease.

    Any problems or complaints?
    The PR proxy owner blames the letting agent.
    The letting agent blames the lead tenant (long gone)
    Wait a while & do it all over again.
    This is why almost all attempted prosecutions fail.

    This model both provides the safe haven for the Chinese criminal, income for the proxy PR and rivers of untaxed cash for the Chinese money laundering investment syndicate.
    $500k unit / $62,000 a year cash return
    12% return
    It’s a cash flow – not a capital gain model.
    House prices fall? great – buy more
    Interest rates go up or down? – immune

    How many modest ex Australian dwellings of cage units now occupied by migrant guestworkers on TR?

    94% of the TR migrant guestworkers rent. (ABS) in ‘private shared accommodation’ / code for bunkshare.
    90% or 2.25 million TR are in Sydney or Melbourne.
    Say a modest 6 per dwelling. Twice the Australian occupancy.
    That’s 375,000 migrant TR occupied dwellings in just Sydney & Melbourne.
    10 years low end housing supply.
    Vast fetid migrant only slums to the horizon.
    Whole suburbs and much of both cities CBD stare you in the face doing this.
    As example: Regis Pitt St Sydney CBD – 282 units & over 2,000 occupants mostly Thai & Chinese vice workers, spivs, pimps, misfits, Indian & Nepalese slum clearance & rurals or backpackers trafficked in on a visa pretext.
    Go sit on the seat in the lobby sometime and wonder why it’s like a third world railway station at 2am – where are they all coming from & going to?

    -/-
    The weak point in all this is having enough third world migrants on TR visa alibis flooding in to pack up and maintain the occupancy density.

    Well we still have 2.5 million TR third world unskilled migrant guestworkers on visa alibis in Australia.
    In visa breach / living & working illegally.

    No reason for any of them to be here with millions of Australians unemployed and online education means zero reason for a ‘foreign students’ to even be allowed in.
    (Labor of course now wanting to give them Australian welfare rather than force exit them all)

    What the property market is reacting to is that with the China virus & border restrictions- it won’t be 3 million third world migrant guestworkers in 2 years (prior trend)

    But the Chinese and other foreign criminal syndicates are still be washing in their dirty money.

    Buying anything that is a bargain when the property market collapses – for the cash flow not the capital gain.

    So they will pool their money to ‘invest in ‘small business’, leisure, vice. gaming & food – anything that can provide the safe haven and also the ability to access cash so they can corrupt it.

    And once the migrant inflow is restored – back to their old model – mostly old established very modest low level Australian dwellings – cage units & little old shacks in our main cities in the middle & outer suburbs.

    As long as its in or near a migrant zone, a migrant friendly council, close to a train station and a shopping trolley (that can be abandoned by the migrant tenants) distance to Coles.
    That’s their buying criteria.

    So a blip.
    In a while the TR migrant influx will pour in.
    And the Chinese & other foreign criminal syndicates will continue their term trend of being the cash in hand slum landlord of the TR migrant guestworkers in Australia.