COVID-19 mutates, vaccine ain’t coming

Advertisement

This is not super hot news but is an example of the difficulty in confronting the coronavirus longer term, via Los Alamos National Laboratory in the US:

Even better news comes from Robert Graham is a biomedical scientist and former executive director of the Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute, at Domain:

There are more than 90 vaccines in development worldwide against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 disease. While these involve both traditional and novel approaches, all are based on the same premises regarding viral entry and host response.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong, but I suspect it is going to take many, many years to develop a vaccine, despite the extra $12 billion pledged into the search for vaccines, treatments and tests this week.

There are also other reasons to be concerned. Successful vaccines provide protection by stimulating the production of so-called neutralising antibodies that prevent viral entry into cells. But despite years of work, vaccines have yet to be developed that can stimulate the production of neutralising antibodies effective against HIV, hepatitis C, cytomegalovirus or dengue fever, let alone SARS or MERS.

And certain viruses mutate rapidly, rendering the vaccine that was effective against last year’s flu virus, for example, ineffective against the strains causing infection this year. Rapid mutation may also mean that antibodies from patients who have recovered from COVID-19, so-called convalescent antibodies, may be ineffective for treating the disease in others who have an active COVID-19 infection, although trials of such antibodies, prepared by the CSIRO, are in progress.

Advertisement

We still think the most likely outcome is that we’ll have to learn to live with it. Treatment and behavioural change shows more promise.

Thanks for nuthin’, Xi Jinping.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.