Australian dollar starts to labour as stocks rocket on

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The Australian dollar is struggling a little this morning:

However, it is interesting to note that the AUD has begun to labour a little versus stocks:

One wonders if the falling CNY isn’t a carpet that is slowly being pulled from under its feet. It remains at a historic breakdown point:

Bonds are still bid:

The XJO rocket is flying into the great fakeflation:

All cylinders are firing today with Big Iron up:

Big Gas just resting:

Big Gold up too:

The big story remains Big Banks as they price out the tail risk:

Big Chunt doesn’t know what risk is:

The Aussie dollar appears to be slowly decoupling from the stock rocket.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


    • Nice one Geordie, very powerful, but you do realise you’ve just planted a bullseye on your head now for the Laurel and Hardy of MB, don’t you?

        • Ideological cockheads/ self proclaimed enlightened ones…it’s a fine line isn’t it?

          I’ll take door number 1 Turps.

          • GeordieMEMBER

            Ha! I’d forgotten good ol’ Ian. Must watch Swift & Shift again some time. Think that was his last gig, wasn’t it?

      • GeordieMEMBER

        I can honestly say I didn’t validate the data. I’m assuming you can demonstrate that the absolute number of cases for each disease depicted here is wrong and favours having Covid-19 come out worst despite these “facts”? Please provide evidence.

        For example:
        “..between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year, higher than a previous estimate of 250,000 to 500,000 and based on a robust, multinational survey.” – Dec, 2013 CDC.

        According to the chart heading this thread, deaths due to the flu top out at 82,070 near the end of March. If we scale that up to a yearly total, we get approximately 200k deaths, well below the 300k lower end of the estimate. If we scale the flu deaths up to match the 300k minimum case, we get about 115k death due to flu over the corresponding period, well below the 345k deaths due to Covid-19.

        I’m struggling to see how cherry picking comes into it. Back of the envelope calcs call BS even at a high level. Chances of some minor factor completely screwing the overall representation of the situation? Pretty f’n low.

        • Perhaps he’s referring to the fact that the graph leaves out all the top causes of death to make covid look more serious than it is relative to the total number of deaths each year? To me it clearly shows it’s worse than the flu, yes, but also tries to overstate the overall impact.

  1. AUD really did not go my way lately, I was hoping for under 0.6 (I export), I could be in trouble if it keeps rising (my memory of 1.1 is still painful 😉 )

  2. WTF are you talking about?!? AUD is back at its straight line recovery after a dip of rationality. It has been all rockets blazing for the last 10 hours up over 1%.

    • I think that’s a pretty good call by MB, re AUD feel like it’s lagging stocks too

      MB called bullish formation on ASX200 around 5600….

      So I’d say genuinely DLS is making very good calls at the moment

      Think MB is actually spot on target in all markets …..

      I’m lost ……….

      Every dog has their day…. I’ve seen the best traders have really bad runs at times, no one gets it consistently correct……

      I truly have no idea WTF is going on

      I can’t possibly know why you would be buying banks here no DIV no growth

      • AUD could be lagging a bit on the China tensions thing.

        What will Trump announce on Fri…?!?!

        • I sold my USD ETFs this morning just before aud jumped again. Geopolitics will crush it but if US and China make up then global stimulus will send it to the moon. Almost impossible to tell which direction aud will take.

          • I sold my USD YANK etfs too

            Partly to start pulling together a house deposit later this year, but also because this is a powerful bounce and I cannot gauge where it may end up.

        • I’m not sure A2
          I’m chasing my tail
          I can’t work out what’s going on

          Feels to me everyone thinks things are better than what they really are and until that changes ……..who knows

          The Q is AUD lagging telling us shares have run a bit too far? Or other way around…,

          This is very fckn hard

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Last 10 hours lol….. go back 14 hours and it’s down 1%+…… teh poo is the poo.

      • Maybe I’m taking “this morning” too literally. But something clearly happened last night for it to fall so sharply. For all of today it has been steadily bought though. I would consider a >1% non stop rise a very deliberate move. As soon as the currency has the slightest fall there is persistent buying.

        • DingwallMEMBER

          On the poo strength side Australia keeps releasing old or numberwanged data such that all the bots see Australia as this perfect island oasis where everything is golden and everything else in the world is not as golden………….. but when a rumour like the Yuan being depreciated arrives it drops. I also think the shorts have been taken out – need to see some data though.

          Edit: also we do go through periods where Asia and Europe pile into the poo then it gets sold overnight……….

  3. DingwallMEMBER

    How’s the AUD short levels looking David? … I keep searching on to replicate your chart…….. found it ages ago but do you think I can find it now… nup

  4. we had an extreme drop over a very short period of time, why wouldn’t we have an extreme rally out the other side? Doesn’t mean it lasts…