Australian dollar breaks out as global reflation takes hold

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar starts to labour as stocks rocket on

DXY was soft last night:

Which helped the Australian dollar break out to new post-crash highs:

EMs rallied:

Gold is stalled at the break out line:

Oil is firm:

Dirt is breaking higher:

Miners up:

EM stocks broke out:

Junk went mad:

Bonds were bid:

Stocks see nothing ahead but Nirvana:

Westpac has the wrap:

Event Wrap

COVID-19 update: The global case count, according to the latest data from John Hopkins University, indicates 96k new confirmed cases worldwide on 19 May, vs 88k the previous day. Whereas in March daily cases accelerated, in April and May they have trended sideways. Although cases in much of Europe and the US are rolling over, cases in, Brazil and India are accelerating.

FOMC minutes reiterated that while the current stance was seen as “appropriate,” the Committee could “clarify” its forward guidance. Some participants though they could make guidance more explicit by adopting an “outcome-based” (scenarios) approach, a “date-based” approach – specifying a time duration for the policy rate, or clarifying its asset purchase plans. There was also some discussion about yield curve control – treasury purchases could be used to “keep long term rates low”, and a few suggested that the balance sheet could be used to cap short and medium term yields. Interestingly, the Open Market Desk surveys showed respondents “attached almost no probability to the FOMC implementing negative policy rates.”

In a CNBC interview, FOMC member Kaplan doubted the recovery will be strong enough for consumers to feel more confident. He said Fed is probably going to have to do more, but it will also take more fiscal action to grind down the unemployment rate which will probably hit 20% near term.

Event Outlook

Australia: The major event of the day will be RBA Governor Lowe’s participation in the FINSIA webinar “The Regulators: Priorities Updated” (12:30 pm AEST). Following this, Deputy Governor Debelle will participate in a webinar titled “Assessing the Impact of the FX Global Code”.

New ZealandRBNZ Chief Economist Ha will deliver a webinar on the May Monetary Policy Statement.

US: The May Phily Fed Index is expected to recover slightly from the 40 year low seen in the April update (market f/c -40.0). Initial jobless claims will follow, and whilst the rate of job loss has been moderating, it remains at an elevated level (market f/c 2400k). The April leading index is poised for another soft print of -5.4%, largely driven by the collapse in the labour market. April existing home sales are poised for a 19.9% contraction as the lockdown suppresses turnover. Finally, the FOMC’s Williams (00:00 AEST), Clarida (03:00 AEST) and Chair Powell (04:30 AEST) will speak.

Global:  Flash reads for May services and manufacturing PMIs are due for Japan, the UK and the US.

As DXY falls, all markets begin to take on the shape of a classic global reflation. Everything EM takes off as capital floods out of the USD in search of higher returns. Credit spreads compress. Gold and commodities bubble up.

This is the perfect environment for a flying Australian dollar.

The only problem is, this kind of reflation would usually start post-crisis at attractive valuations and, given now is the opposite, you have to believe that the virus is not only dead but gone for any of it to make sense.

Basically, the market is betting heavily that the Fed&Co has beaten it and now everything revolves around equity:

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. I think everyone important has realised it’s a bad flu

    It’s just the media still milking it for page clicks, and the government trying not to look too stupid for panicking by walking it back slowly

      • But is he wrong? It also seems to me that the course that will now be steered is broadly “whoever is bound to get the virus and die will be allowed to get the virus and die. Just not all at the same time, because that looks too much like a disaster.”

        And if that’s right, and even if the virus takes 1% of the population over the next couple of years (victims consisting mostly of the aged) – that doesn’t really impact either aggregate productive capacity or aggregate demand.

        That’s how I read the doctorX-Coming thesis, which is being adopted as government policy.

        Am I missing something important?

        Maybe the idea that the initial shock will reset people’s marginal propensity to spend to a lower level. So people will spend less and save more? I reckon that has flaws on multiple levels, including:
        – in aggregate, we can’t really “save” by storing away production
        – our attempts at “saving” in aggregate in the usual way (buying stocks, bonds) will just push up asset prices
        – in any case, our “saving” will be counterbalanced (or, in the context of asset purchases – augmented) by an insane amount of government borrowing.

        • I reckon the important missing factor Peachy is that once cases and deaths take off again, individuals withdraw and lockdown again even if the government doesn’t. So you get the economic impact anyway, plus more deaths, plus the government gets the hate for killing grandma.

          • Voice of reason as usual.

            Take the unchecked spread of the virus through New York in March, multiple that across the world and put the fallout from that into your aggregate demand calculator. What Coming and Doctor XXX have done repeatedly through this whole issue is start with their world view and wrap the “facts” around it.

            As for Australia…how about this crazy notion… The actions of March/April were appropriate risk mitigation given the circumstances, and the May/June easing of restrictions is also appropriate, given the risk seems to have abated and we’re in a better position to manage any uptick in cases (e.g. ubiquitous testing and hospital capacity).

          • How many peeps have died in New York? How many is that as a percentage of the total population of the city?

          • BrentonMEMBER

            Who would know how bad that figure could’ve been, New York locked down…

            All have something in common, as curve goes exponential and health system gets overwhelmed, they panic lockdown. A month or 2 later after lockdowns have effectively stopped the outbreak, naysayers come out of the woodwork and unironically say how effective lockdowns have been in stopping the spread.

          • Peachy, most people don’t calmly run the numbers, calculate a one-in-100 chance of dying and then go “yep, I like those odds, I’m going out for coffee”.

            People instinctively fear potentially deadly infectious disease and almost all will take serious steps to protect themselves. You might call it disproportionate but it’s how humans behave. I’m not talking about this week in Australia where we are becoming (possibly justifiably) comfortable and a little complacent. I’m talking about any place where the cases start spiralling upwards (which is most places that have not locked down). People intensely fear getting infected. They lock themselves down. Economic outcome is the same, just with more chaos and more death rolled into the package.

          • Nah, I was a naysayer before lockdowns even started

            The fact is that the degree of restrictions seems to have no correlation with number of deaths per population across the world

            Doctor X has posted plenty about this, I can’t be bothered reiterating it

            Additionally, as we’ve discussed multiple times, the deaths are coming at some point whether you like it or not – there’s nothing we can do except drag it out

            And ventilation appears to make no difference to mortality (and may even make it worse), so the excuse of not burdening the healthcare system is also a nonsense

            As far as people’s fear goes: that is a direct result of the media. People don’t fear plenty of things that are far more likely to kill them, and they don’t fear influenza which is nearly as likely to kill them and also an infectious disease

          • BrentonMEMBER

            You keep trotting out the same rubbish.

            Ventilators are effective in treating symptoms, like being unable to breathe properly. Even a simple IV drip can be the difference between life and death for an incapacitated patient. In other words, the healthcare system can and does provide critical symptom relief in the absence of a cure.

            As noted before, I get why you’re so dogmatic about inaction, you are deep in the hole for a risk off event you didnt see comnig.

          • See my response to you below

            Its pretty clear you have no idea what you’re talking about, and no medical background at all

            Also, I’m not deep in the hole at all

            I’m up 40% for the year on my investments (PPOR excluded)c

          • GeordieMEMBER

            The other aspect of this persistent argument that “It’s only a bad flu” that “only kills old people” is the implied zero value of human life. You can make all the economic arguments you like and cough out arbitrary stats like “It’ll only kill 1% of the global population”, but that doesn’t change the fact that people don’t want to die or have their loved ones die.

            This is where our bastardised neoliberal, perverted capitalist politico-economic completely falls over. The government should be ensuring that the value of human life isn’t zero or so close to it as to degrade a portion of society into a worthless, swelling mass of “dole bludgers” living in poverty with no hope of escape; exactly what we see in the US.

            The other stupidity of the aforestated argument is you’re making the bold assumption that the virus is genetically stable indefinitely. So, let us presume we choose to live with it and let it kill people. More people have it, it remains actively spread, vastly increasing the odds of a mutation appearing and persisting in the population. All we need is one mutation that knocks it from sub 2% mortality rate toward the SARS or MERS mortality rate and we’re completely boned. I don’t know about you lot, but I’m not keen to take that risk.

          • How on earth is it going to kill 1% of the population?

            Infection Mortality rate is 0.2-0.4%
            Assuming 70% of the population gets it total mortality might be 0.3% at the most

            As far as the rest of your argument goes – what is your alternative?

            Shelter in place for the rest of time?

            The deaths were baked in from the very beginning

          • Geordie, you’re right, but you’re also wrong.

            Yes, nobody wants to die or to have people they like die even if they are old.

            But the reality is that this is how it will play out, whether we want that or not. I am just choosing to face that.

            Having faced that, I estimate that the playing out of this tragedy may well do very little for “the economy”. That is – if 1% of people die, that is a terrible tragedy, but it changes little in terms of day to day life (for those that don’t die).

          • BrentonMEMBER

            The alternative is to use Taiwan as a policy template; ie mandatory society wide face masks and effective social distancing.

            Instead your reaction is to dogmatically slam down any policy response for fear of it hurting your chances of ever recouping losses made in March.

          • GeordieMEMBER

            That is – if 1% of people die, that is a terrible tragedy, but it changes little in terms of day to day life (for those that don’t die).

            And there you have it, ladies and gents. The worthlessness of human life writ large. “If you’re not dead you don’t care; if you’re dead you can’t.” Just peachy, that is.

            I strongly suggest if you see no problem with the psychotic nature of the “let it go” argument you start with the Trolly Car problem and finish with seeking professional help.

          • I’m sorry Geordie, but that’s the reality we live in.

            I don’t make the rules. I just help people realise what they are.

          • GeordieMEMBER

            So we can throw you into the same camp as the Nazis, Khmer Rouge, CCP and you’d willingly follow the rules – right or wrong, moral or immoral, ethical or abhorrent – as long as you personally can profit. Nice. Let us not question the rules. That sort of thing will get you shot. Nah, much better to make a buck of the misfortune of others, because hey, if them’s the rules, it’s all good!

            Utterly sickening.

        • Yes, he is wrong. Diamtreically wrong. Death rates everywhere are far in advance to any flu.

          The lockdowns roll on as well and that won’t change. Nobody in power has concluded it’s not worth fighting. That’s fiction.

          As well, private sectors everywhere shut down whether government want to or not. See Denmark vs Sweden with one open and one closed or the same economic result.

          And Peachy be warned, you’re astroturfing is starting to annoy me.

          • Yeh, death rates are worse than the flu. But see what I’ve written – I’m proceeding on the basis that 1% of the population carks it.

            This is much much much worse than the flu. But I can’t see that this changes things. Unless the virus starts killing young people.

          • BrentonMEMBER

            It is much worse than the flu, as discovered by all the “just the flu” world leaders that are now licking their wounds in humiliation, as death rates spiral out of control relative to their peers.

            Unacceptable policy to allow 1% of the population to die without attempted intervention, irrespective of the demographic make-up of that 1%.

            What I have never understood is why we are not emulating what many eastern European nations did, and took the lessons from places like Taiwan and apply them to our own population.

          • BrentonMEMBER

            Rubbish. We don’t know what the final mortality rate is if left unchecked; ie health system overrun. Everyone has always locked down when it reaches this point.

            Sweden and Brazil are a lesson in how not to do this. Taiwan is who we should be looking at.

          • You keep trotting out the same rubbish

            What is a “healthcare system overrun”

            Ventilation makes no difference to mortality, and may make it actually worse

            There’s nothing to be done – people will either die or they wont

            We have plenty of capacity to make people comfortable

          • Peachy is ok – he is a priori stance is cynicism, which keeps us doubting ourselves, and thinking.

            Sure, it’s the kind of cynic that taps you on the shoulder quite frequently to say the same sorts of things, but we all need such an advocate. I’ve learnt a lot from Peachy’s cynicism – I’d say it’s actually one of the main reasons why I’m in the right investment place now, instead of the wrong one (again).

            I still disagree with Coming and DoctorX, and have been saying much the same as Arrow since the beginning; but we need people with the other views, even if it just reminds us how willful we can all be.

          • BrentonMEMBER

            You keep trotting out the same rubbish.

            Ventilators are effective in treating symptoms, like being unable to breathe properly. Even a simple IV drip can be the difference between life and death for an incapacitated patient. In other words, the healthcare system can and does provide critical symptom relief in the absence of a cure.

            As noted before, I get why you’re so dogmatic about inaction, you are deep in the hole for a risk off event you didnt see comnig.

          • Brenton, are you a doctor?

            Because I am

            Ventilators don’t treat symptoms – that is one of the most ignorant statements I have read here

            No ventilation is not effective – the problem for the critically ill covid patients is not one of ventilation, it is gas exchange because of capillary thrombosis due to immune response
            The mortality of ventilated patients is nearly 90% in new york data. Some suggest that it exacerbates the condition as ventilation predisposes to bacterial superinfection and also causes trauma to the lungs

            Here is a layman’s article for you

            https://time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/

            https://www.labroots.com/trending/microbiology/17311/ventilators-covid-19-patients-worse

            We don’t have an effective treatment for these patients

            As far as IV drips go – we have plenty of capacity to provide that, but I’m not sure what you expect that does either

          • BrentonMEMBER

            The bloke who has repeatedly been caught out in lies (on this site alone) is suddenly now a doctor?

            For the layman and from an actual certifiable doctor:

            These critically ill patients die because they are so sick from COVID-19 that they needed a ventilator to remain alive, not because the ventilator fatally harms them, said Dr. Hassan Khouli, chair of critical care medicine at Cleveland Clinic.

            https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200415/ventilators-helping-or-harming-covid-19-patients#1

            I see you sidestep my clarification that we don’t have a treatment for the virus itself, but we do for some of its symptoms.

            An IV has no impact on someone that is critically ill? 🤦‍♂️

          • As I said, SOME PEOPLE believe ventilators cause more damage
            Perhaps some don’t

            In any case the mortality is 88% for ventilated patients

            Shortness of breath (dyspnoea) is a symptom – the best treatment for shortness of breath is morphine, not a ventilator
            Hypoxaemia is not a symptom
            Again, you are out of your depth here because you have no basic medical knowledge to engage

            IV drips?
            The question is IV drip is not a treatment – its a piece of equipment to administer fluid or medication
            Are you talking about keeping them adequately hydrated with IV fluid?
            As I said, we have plenty of capacity to provide that

            Again, you don’t have the experience or knowledge to engage in this debate

          • BrentonMEMBER

            A) You have just reinforced my point that the healthcare system is capable of treating life threatening symptoms and is critical for hospitalised covid patients.

            B) Your medical expertise is apparently dogsh!t, as you are now trying to backtrack your way out of points made; including ventialtion, but also that even something as simple as hydration is the difference between life and death for someone in a critical condition, never mind that IV’s are used for more than simple hydration…… Dr Coming.

          • Honestly, this is cringeworthy

            One cannot die from symptoms, so symptoms can never be life-threatening

            You’re too ignorant for me to engage on this discussion

          • BrentonMEMBER

            Ladies and gentlemen, from our resident ‘doctor’

            One cannot die from symptoms, so symptoms can never be life-threatening

            So much for that axiom of: certain symptoms left untreated, can be life threatening.

          • BigDuke6MEMBER

            It is amazing how the herd on this site have ignored what they were told by the doctors here.
            They had a chance not to panic and be part of the sheep but some/many here have stayed scared. At least migtrannie has realised his error and admits it.
            I’ll tell you right now – as a doctor – if people want to get back to any sort of normal people are going to have to learn to ignore this virus…. and in a year or two they will.

          • Coming hasn’t told us about the role of high flow nasal oxygen.
            They are limited in number too. So let it rip and some won’t have access to that. The argument for letting it rip doesn’t stack up.

      • “Sweden becomes country with highest coronavirus death rate per capita”

        Whatever decision made were “wrong!” It’s all easy looking back….

        “Swedish virologist and author said she was frustrated that the country refused to alter the country’s strategy despite growing evidence of failure.
        “They have made a decision and if they admit they have taken a bad decision that means taking responsibility for creating a bad situation,” she said.
        Einhorn is one of a group of 22 Swedish scientists and researchers who have from the start challenged the country’s strategy.”

        • bzunicaMEMBER

          I’m not sure where that quote comes from but the worldometers site is reporting Sweden’s per capita death rate is 8th in Europe behind countries like Spain, Belgium etc. Sweden is certainly not first.

    • Coming
      We haven’t agreed on too many things but I am with you 100%
      I agree it’s terrible to get sick, and i have been told if you get it it’s pretty bad but the statistics show it’s not much worse than very bad flu.
      It’s only the very old that are dying, it’s not the bubonic plague
      It’s been completely mismanaged, they should have locked up over 70s or people who feel they are more vulnerable and let the disease spread through the community so we could build up immunity

      Bit like what Dom said

      We are delaying the inevitable

      We need to take our medicine with the economy and accept that the CV19 will spread through the community

      The economic & mental health, eg suicide, family violence stress is going to be many many times worse than COVID.

      (that said I can’t even cope when I have a head cold)

      Suicide is going to be a much bigger problem than COVID will

      • Quarantining the vulnerable had been my thoughts too, as opposed to everyone in lockdown. It definitely would have meant more deaths regardless, but it’s clear these are inevitable and somewhat front-loaded from the annual figure of not next few years of mortality figures. There’s a lot to unpack with such a short statement, I do not deny it, especially if triage comes into the picture. But at least we have the opportunity to be discussing this now without question that we could have done much better.

      • There is a point that some people seem to consistently not take into consideration in these discussions and that is because it is a novel virus it is most definitely not the flu esp when you take into account the many different ways in which it can attack the body that the flu does not. The flu does not leave you with multiple organ failure, the flu generally does not leave you with with lingering malaise or fatigue of the type many survivors are now complaining of. There is much we still do not know about the long term after effects of even mild Covid infection. Focusing on infection rates and death rates only, misses a significant part of the story that we just don’t know yet and means this type of conversation is a form of bs. Take it from someone who’s life has been destroyed by chronic fatigue syndrome from post viral fatigue acquired nearly 2 decades ago, Covid 19 appears to be way more dangerous to the long term health of survivors atm than the flu. I’m guessing we’ll know much more by Xmas about how good ‘recovery’ from this is. Humans have developed a healthy fear of the unknown and novel viruses fall intothat category. It’s an evolutionary survival instinct that has served us well.

        • Strongly agree. One telling point is that the health authorities in countries where vaccine candidates are already in human trials are refusing to allow challenge testing, even though it could immensely speed up vaccine development and has been used for other diseases. Several thousand healthy young people in the US have already stepped forwards to volunteer for it.

      • That’s funny, before COVID, Sweden was notorious as being the least democratic country for its immigration policies and grand coalitions intended to keep the largest party, Sweden Democrats out of power. Now they’re apparently the most democratic because they let it rip and got the highest death rate per capita in Europe. Did they ever vote on this policy? Of course not. But very democratic. Belarus is doing even less, next to nothing in fact. They must be double-plus democratic.

        • TightwadMEMBER

          That’s funny I don’t recall voting on our immigration policies or if I agreed to become a prisoner under house arrest either. I suppose when you drink the kook aid you just have to keep trying to justify it rather than look a fool.
          The death toll from the lockdown throughout the world will most likely exceed the death toll from this virus. Think third world starvation, suicide, lack of access to medical care routine cancer screening etc. etc.
          We are happy to send our young people away to die in a multitude of wars and equally willing to sacrifice them now to save a few old sods like me.

          • No one voted on anything in any country mate.

            I don’t know what connection there is between third-world starvation and lockdowns although a few opponents have raised it now.

            I don’t feel like a fool. Nearly 100K dead in the US with no end in sight. Gonna have to be a heck of a lot of suicides to top that. No surprise that the people who didn’t give two sh!ts about the opiate crisis, e.g., Trump, also want to end the lockdown ASAP — I’m detecting a trend.

          • 100K dead in the US but so far per capita lower rate than Belgium, Holland, Italy, France, Spain and the UK.

          • Probably because people are afraid to go to doctors or hospitals in the US since that could bankrupt them

    • Coming: Media and government is also milking the “we got lockdown wrong” for the same click bait effect, you just choose to ignore that to suit your agenda, or they’ve sucked you right in and played you like a fool. You probably think it’s your powers of critical thinking and above average brain power seeing through the BS but you’re as blind as the rest of us. Anyone displaying your level of certainty is you is not really worth listening to in my experience.

  2. Can the fraud fed ever get out of outright purchasing if bonds and etfs etc etc as well as never raising rates ever again??

    Talk about NO price discovery and a fraud market

    • Never JB
      This is all going to end in tears and not 18 months, much sooner
      1 we need some free market and price discovery

      It’s just one big credit card balance transfer for12 months at 0% and then after 12 months interest rates go from 0% to 20%

      • How did U work out your call months ago that March April would be turmoil? Did U expect this relation? Hard to imagine the virus will not have a massive second wave just before the presidential election

        • JB
          It’s just easier for me to say I guessed and got lucky.
          You sometimes just get lucky…….

          I think most things I have said are pretty obvious if you really want to see

          • Good call.

            My thoughts. This will rip thru the states and they will be caught in no man’s land. Shut again and wreck their economy or let it rip and health system will go.

            Djia rising on zero rates and fed outright buying etfs. Also Swiss buying stocks…how is that legal? As in the SNB buying stocks directly

            Candidate Trump said some good things prez Trump is a giant fraud and complete psycho

          • @JB

            The deflation this time is too powerful
            Noone can stop what’s coming

            The financial crash & depression that’s coming will be so much worse than anyone is expecting

            It’s going to be “of biblical proportions”

          • Hill Billy 55MEMBER

            More fake news. Its VERY disappointing when those who try to make sense of the world are castigated for it by others who have similar views but see a different prism.
            I have a Christian viewpoint, and see the world from that standpoint. The virus, Trump etc etc etc seem to point in the direction of this being towards the end times. There are other views and I read them with interest. The angst shown toward fellow commentators and members on this forum is unedifying. I guess it is a reflection of the world, and why there is concern about the levels of suicide and domestic violence precipitated by the lockdowns happening around the world. If it were all peaches and cream, what a different world we would live in.
            I often think of the conversation Jesus had with the rich young ruler, He accepted the young fellow’s choice not to follow Him, for he had compassion for him. Maybe a little more of Jesus in all of us would go a long way to getting through this thing.

          • Heya Hill Billy 55! I agree that the world would benefit from more real christianity. (Bet you didn’t expect to find support from me, eh?!)

            Unfortunately christianity is one of many things/institutions which has been successfully corrupted by the current world order (see, for instance, Scott Morrison, George Pell). So there is little practical hope of Christianity coming to the rescue.

          • Good thing is that God is firstly concerned with saving individuals from themselves, and not necessarily cultures from themselves; that being said, cultures tend to change as individuals get saved, knowing their Maker personally.

            ‘Christian’ institutions are not how God prefers to work; he prefers direct, one-to-one, and using saved, changed people to reach others, and meet others’ needs.

          • Now, now, BurbWatcher, what you say about institutions not being how god prefers to work is perhaps how the lutherans see the world, but not how catholics see it….

            I say that not because we need a religious debate, but as another reason why we can’t count on christianity to fix this. There isn’t just the one christianity 😉

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Surely, you meant -20%? Property prices only ever go up, as we all know – and interest rates only ever go down, compliments of CBers, as we also all know.

  3. robert2013MEMBER

    At the tail end of 2018 I drew a channel on a chart of AUD USD pointing down. With a couple of blips the price has stuck in the channel. In March and April the price action was well below the channel, now it’s back there. The question I have is whether the dramatic lowering of US rates a couple of months ago will cause a longer term AUD appreciation. The upper boundary of the channel is now 67.5 cents. The current price will be the upper boundary in September.

  4. Brace for impact
    I bought some miners / gold miners this morning, so downturn imminent. Please get out now before it is too late.
    Sincere apologies for turning the market on you

  5. Well, I was wrong about a sharp correction in the SPX occuring by now. I considered, if it was going to happen, that it would be around the 7th or 19th. But a break upwards hasn’t really occurred either. It’s just been an overall grind upwards.

    Capital flow is is extremely confused right now. The daily oscillations are still volatile and sensitive. Gold is being bid to ludicrous levels at the same time tech stocks are inflating. People are even talking about silver being the next beast thing which. Gold and Precious metals resembling Bitcoin in the lead up to its disaster. Bonds are becoming the leper and the USD is strong.

    Many of the most successful investors have gone to cash (USD). Greed, positivity and desire for growth are on display but the bulls have two black eyes and are not entirely exuberant. There’s still an overarching significant fear and uncertainty which is preventing a breakout up but at the same time there’s more underlying bullishness opinion about the future than bearishness so the market is irresolutely marching higher. Short positions are gradually capitulating, sellers who moved to cash after getting belted are gradually healing their wounds and feeling positive and brave to slowly get back in. Added to that, a zero rate environment and a growing misguided and false dogma that the FED is “printing” money to an abundance which therefore means stocks, gold, whatever will go higher so “we must get in today before we miss out on the wealth”. Valuations are relatively (to history) outrageous.

    Before the c19 crash, the market was closest to the dot com bubble in my opinion. Buying out of fear of prices being higher tomorrow. It seems that this has now resumed clearly in the tech sector and doubly so. Right now, for the stock market as a whole, it seems like a slow grind up for several more months with the potential for a wild correction which may not even happen.

  6. Thank Popcod for the voice of sanity.
    The complete dataset on the outcomes and corollaries of Covid-19 will not be available for some time. Already there is enough evidence beyond outright death rates to suggest we tread carefully with this outbreak. Doc XXXX claiming it is analagous to a bad cold took the cake for me for shallowness.
    Anyone claiming that they have prescient knowledge of how this ends up is spouting codswallop.
    I wasn’t too worried about Covid-19 myself, personally absent of any co-morbidities. However, I find myself increasingly wary of having to experience even a non-lethal outcome. More worrying, for me, is the thought that Coming might be a doctor, as claimed.

    That makes me sh!t-scared.

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now