Unemployment steady before COVID-19 restrictions

Leith van Onselen

Thursday 16 April 2020

The ABS has released March’s labour force data, which recorded a steady jobs market prior to the COVID-19 restrictions:

Below is the summary data:

TREND ESTIMATES

Employment increased 16,800 to 13,020,500 persons. Full-time employment increased 8,800 to 8,888,900 persons and part-time employment increased 8,000 to 4,131,600 persons.

Unemployment increased 3,500 to 713,300 persons.

Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%.

Participation rate remained steady at 66.0%.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 0.2 million hours to 1,781.7 million hours.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

Employment increased 5,900 to 13,017,600 persons. Full-time employment decreased 400 to 8,882,200 persons and part-time employment increased 6,400 to 4,135,400 persons.

Unemployment increased 20,300 to 718,600 persons.

Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 5.2%.

Participation rate remained steady at 66.0%.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 8.6 million hours to 1,784.9 million hours.

LABOUR UNDERUTILISATION

The monthly trend underemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 8.7%. The monthly underutilisation rate increased 0.1 pts to 13.9%.

The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 8.8%. The monthly underutilisation rate increased 0.2 pts to 14.0%.

It’s important to note that this survey took place in the first half of March, prior to the COVID-19 lockdown. Therefore, it is at odds with unofficial data showing pervasive labour market weakness.

As noted by the ABS:

Chief Economist at the ABS, Bruce Hockman, said: “Today’s data shows some small early impact from COVID-19 on the Australian labour market in early March, but any impact from the major COVID-19 related actions will be evident in the April data.”

“Given the expected unseasonal change in key labour market indicators in the current COVID-19 context, the ABS will increase the focus on seasonally adjusted over trend data estimates for April and subsequent months,” Mr Hockman said.

I’ll be back with the usual detailed monthly report shortly.

About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.