Consumers have no pent-up demand. None

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Quite the opposite. Via FTAlphaville:

If you pick through the recent musings of Wall Street’s wonks, whether on the economic or corporate side, you’ll find one discernible trend: analysts trying to figure out how fast we return to ‘normality’ once we emerge from our hovels.

There are various approaches to this, but they typically revolve around modelling a set of different outcomes post-pandemic and then weighing them by probability. To inform their predictions, analysts can utilise third-party data — credit card, traffic, electricity prices, etc — to figure out which industries, countries or companies are in the process of recovering. Soft data, like a survey, may also help those industries, like cruise ships, which are still in a coronavirus crunch.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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