Australian dollar dragged into US catastrophe

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DXY is back!

The Australian dollar fell heavily against DMs:

Was mixed againts EMs:

Gold was poor:

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Oil is hanging on:

Dirt dumped:

Miners rolled:

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EM stocks don’t look well:

Junk was puked:

Treasuries bid:

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Bunds sold:

Aussie bonds are a rocket:

Stocks crashed:

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Westpac has the wrap:

Event Wrap

Coronavirus update: Latest data from John Hopkins University indicates 75,100 new confirmed cases on 31 March, vs 62,200 the previous day.

European nations announced further extensions to lockdown restrictions, past Easter for Germany, and potentially into May for Italy.

At a press conference yesterday, President Trump and virus task-force coordinator Birx discussed projections indicating that COVID-19 deaths could extend to June. Trump told the country to brace for a tough stretch.

Jia County in China’s Henan province is under lockdown again after the area reported local Covid-19 cases.

France raised the potential of a Eurozone Coronavirus Rescue Fund in advance of the Eurogroup Summit next week. Italy continues to prepare a larger secondary stimulus package after the inability of last week’s Eurogroup Summit to agree on any fiscal coordination.

US March manufacturing ISM was firmer than expected at 49.1 (prior 50.1, est. 44.5), despite employment slipping to its lowest since 2009 (43.8 from 46.9) and orders slipping to 42.2 prior 49.8). March ADP employment fell sharply to show a loss of 27k jobs from prior +179k. However, markets had expected a number of at least -100k.

Event Outlook

Australia: NAB business confidence for Q1 is expected to fall sharply.

US: Initial jobless claims for the week to 28 March are released. Following a record 3283k claims in the week to 21 March, the market expects that an even more substantial 3500k claims were lodged this week. February factory orders are expected to pick up by a modest 0.2%. The February trade balance is expected to narrow by $5.3bn to -$40.0bn, and looking ahead, the effect of the virus will delay a clear read for many months.

The US is on the express elevator to hell. Data is collapsing, via Credit Suisse:

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But the country is still only partially shut down so the virus is running wild:

Within a week, 2k Americans per day will be dying. Within two weeks it will be 4-5k.

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The curve will flatten but I can’t see anything but selling before the catastrophic death rate peaks.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.