UBS: Chinese rebound is a write-off

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Via UBS:

Jan-Feb activities plummeted, Q1 likely much weaker
Jan-Feb economic activities were severely impacted by COVID-19 outbreak and related nationwide shutdowns. Industrial production declined by 13.5% y/y and some services have been hit hard as well. Work resumption is picking up but activities are not fully back to normal in March (see China Daily Activity Tracker). We estimate China’s GDP may fall by 5% y/y in real terms in Q1 2020.

Worsening global economy will likely hamper China’s recovery
As the virus outbreak increases around the world, more countries are implementing lockdowns and imposing mobility restrictions. As the negative impact on the US and European economies are felt going forward, the much weaker global demand will hurt Chinese exports. The increasing risk of imported cases may also mean more cautiousness in relaxing mobility restrictions.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.