We have updated our scenarios, driven from our core market models.
The drivers are rising unemployment, and business failure thanks to the impact of the virus. We discussed these scenarios in our live stream event last night. This is the full version with live chat. The show starts formally at 32 minutes.
We estimate that mortgage stress is set to rise significantly in the months ahead as household cash-flows are interrupted.
Given we’re already at a Pandemic scenario, I don’t get the split of cases. Still. I agree that we’re headed for some kind of scenario around the “global disruption” numbers, though some of those price falls will be real not nominal.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
