The miracle current surplus Australia has enjoyed for two quarter all but disappeared in Dec 19 as iron ore and, especilly, coal got thumped:
It’s still rising on an annual basis:
Net foreign debt fell slightly:
I wouldn’t give up hope yet on more CAS. As the virus ravages domestic demand through winter and China stimulates for bulks, it may hit all new highs.
The challenge has never been whether Australia can sustain a CAS. It is whether it can do so without being in recession.
So far the evidence suggests not.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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