Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar poised for higher as Trump destroys America

Outside local stocks its been another rough start to the trading week throughout Asia for risk markets, but US futures are pushing higher as the risk complex again reweights the growing pile of virus victims versus the verisimilitude of a v-shaped recovery! USD is holding its ground against the major currency pairs, although gold has fallen a little, while oil prices gapped lower but have recovered later in the session as markets transmit higher volatility ahead.

Chinese stocks are acting the same with the Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 2740 points while the Hang Seng Index is off nearly the same to 23210 points, still unable to keep above above its high moving average on the daily chart and hence still in swing mode only:

Japanese share markets fell the sharpest in the region, the Nikkei 225 closing 3.4% lower to remain well below the 19000 point level, not helped by a stronger Yen as the USDJPY pair continued its breakdown on this morning’s gap open. The pair remains solidly below the 108 handle but has paused this afternoon as it now extremely oversold:

The ASX200 is the only market to advance, as the fear of missing out and delusion spreads wide and sunder, the market eventually closing exactly 7% higher at 5181 points. Meanwhile the Aussie dollar is hurriedly going nowhere, stuck at the mid 61s as it completely ignores any weekend news:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are advancing after gapping down first thing this morning, with the four hourly S&P futures chart trying to get back to the previous highs at the end of last week nearer the 2600 point level:

The economic calendar starts the week with the latest German CPI numbers plus US pending home sales. For a great lesson in “not what to do” leadership style and techniques, tune in to the White House’s press conference tomorrow at 6am – now held conveniently after markets are closed.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • ChinajimMEMBER

      What is really absurd is that there has been temperature screening going on since SARS, for 17 years, for EVERY passenger at nearly every airport in Asia and this bunch of clowns are using thermometers.

      Just fvckn staggering.

    • Is the goal to actually stop the virus, because it looks like we are always doing the exact opposite.

    • Jumping jack flash

      I agree. Flu season is still around the corner, and all the deaths and disruption it brings that isn’t coronavirus-related.
      We still have some pretty nasty flus floating around that aren’t coronavirus, too.

      Or they could redefine all flus and flu deaths as coronavirus and coronoavirus deaths, just like they did for pneumonia quite a number of years back to try and boost the stats for their dodgy and expensive flu vaccine that works quite literally by luck.

      • How will the flu travel if we are all isolating and its less contagious than corona? We may be in for the lowest flu season on record.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Ive been thinking this also.
          It Will be interesting to see just how dramatic a drop in flu numbers we will see.

          • My guess is the govt will conveniently assume normal flu deaths and subtract them from the total to lower the corona death totals.

          • There was only 340 flu deaths last year. And there wont be hardly any flu with all the little germ spreaders stuck at home.

        • It’s remotely plausible that we make that extinct for a few years too.

          Until it finds its way out of another animal reserviour.

    • With 165k deaths a year in OZ up till Sept 2019 we will have to wait a year to see how much 3101.0 has increased. And if numberwang is required.

    • They have seasonal data for both overall mortality and mortality for pneumonia/flu.
      Of you just look at how many medics are dying, or in China, look at the extra 35k cremation urns wuhan had delivered.

      • I think MBers are suffering from fever – cabin fever

        There’s some fairly hardy conspiracy stuff going on

        • No conspiracies.
          Australian deaths are around 160k every year give or take a few thousand.
          In a year we will have deaths at the end of the September quarter of this year.
          I believe this will be interesting to see.

  1. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    this mortgage keeper payment is going to get rorted like no tomorrow, every habibi and mohammed out this way will suddenly have five employees by next week

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      exactly. we are suddenly going to have more employees than the total population of the country.

      And why are Myer going to keep paying 10k retail staff to go into stores and stand around risking contagion

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Because the comedy duo, Scotty and Joshie, said everyone should be part of Team Straya?

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Noticed they included sole traders also,…so that could be basically everyone.
          Takes only a few hours to set up an ABN and register a trading name.
          Typical libs setting up MORE pathways to rorting.
          Why not just pay the money to every adult citizen.

          Anyone who earns over,…say,…100k at the end of the tax year can have these payments added to their taxable income.
          Theyd still get over half of it no matter how much they earn, but its money into the economy now that we are trying to achieve.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Suppose 5 of us each started a company that hires the other 4 person, does that means everyone gets 4 x $1500 = $6000?

    • Libs are dancing like Ballerinas around actually giving anything to f*cking households which are expected to cough up for every rorting crook in the country now.

      • Despite finding myself unemployed I don’t qualify for any of this help. Last year I paid the Government $130k in taxes. $80k in salary based tax and $50k in stamp duties. Yet after paying so much into this system. I don’t get any help.. this is why I’m an advocate for a temporary UBI.

        • Yep I’ve paid about half that income tax but getting nothing zero zilch in return. Just the bill for all this.

        • same here mate. on top of all kinds of tax i paid and pay , I’ve been a tax collector on behalf of them (more than $50k in GST ) and of course thats not paid job by them …and Zilch nothing even with the loss of 25% of business so far

        • You understand the purpose of welfare is to create a society where the rich don’t get stabbed while walking down the street right!

          • The shakedown is electronic and facilitated by the government. You don’t get stabbed but you still lose most of your wallet.

      • Yep. At Mrs Nut’s work, a couple of people have dropped hours to support the company yet there’s nothing for them. At least they have a job I guess but they’re pretty p1ssed that a casual who earned a couple a hundred a week is now up for $750 while they get a pay cut.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        From march first.
        Also a 30 % reduction in turnover required post that date.
        So that should prevent the likes of Woolies, Coles and Bunnings getting the money.
        Not to mention Bog roll manafactures!
        Those cnvts are literally cleaning up!

        • The turnover effect must be on an honour system. Not sure how many businesses could prove that over such a short period.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Financial year turnover isn’t going to be dropping for Woolies or Coles.

        • I have to go to work so people can drink their aldi wine. Need to see if I can get a carers leave cetificate since we live with my 65yo father in law on chemo.

        • Actually treasurer just said on 730 it’s 50% reduction in revenue if your have turnover over $1M. It’s calculated March 2020 v March 2019 and prob into future months as well.

    • I think there needs to be an employment history to qualify — I know this because I was going to rort the thing myself! 😉

      Dammit – have to wait for the next bailout package to see if I qualify for any lollies. 🙁

      Scrooges. Fcken.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Yep. Who cares about the infection and death count as long as Mr Market is on the mend?

      El Trumpo nows sees the death count being kept under 100,000 in the US as a victory for his administration. Next stop, under 1,000,000 deaths will be the next great outcome. Yippee?

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        If this is true it just goes to show how disconnected the Real economy is from the Money for nothing, financialised casino economy of Global Corporate plutocracy.

  2. Why in this environment do we have to endure the biggest 2 week bull market in aud history? The best risk on indicator of them all is ripping non-stop. Dingwall, this is no longer a floating ‘poo’. This is more like a resurrection from the dead. This thing is a sacred cow.

    • Everything risk on is ripping. Have you seen stocks?

      Real world impacts are not priced yet. Global recession coming and yet people are all like buy buy buy! Ain’t nobody Big actually declared bankruptcy yet but that’s coming too. And it isn’t priced.

      Check this chart, look how many bull traps in the GFC: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007–2009

      and the dot com bust: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble#/media/File%3ANasdaq_Composite_dot-com_bubble.svg

      • Stocks are ripping but are still at least way off their peaks. Aud is pretty close to re-entering the lower bound of its pre corona band at about 0.6340. It’s literally as though nothing has happened.

        • Not only that, the government is throwing hundreds of billions at this and the AUD goes up?

          • The Gubmint is obviously not throwing ENOUGH billions at the problem — the US are doing a far better job, which makes the poo look like a bar of Lindt chocolate next to a Kitkat

    • DingwallMEMBER

      This is the way!…………… the poo has been a serial rider of the waves….🤢

    • Recovery that is V shaped is priced, plus some short covering and few novice bargain hunters. We’ve had steep falls, it only really started a month ago. Got to suck more people in before the next dive comes. It’s all about filling the seats on the roller coaster from those that got sick on the last sharp fall. Roller coaster is filling as the market rips up a bit and gives the illusion that 60c is a solid floor and 5000 on the ASX200 is solid too. All the stimulus is starting to create recovery FOMO. We are barely 1 month into a multi year economic crisis. Keep calm and trade accordingly.

  3. this is driving me mad. One of my neighbors constantly plays this music (not sure how to describe it) that sounds like one is seating and playing poker in Kansas City in the days of Doc Holliday. I would not mind if I can also hear cowboy’s drunken laughter and whores screaming and laughing with it. But being where I am it is just driving me mad.

  4. ApproachingZero

    The job keeper payment is useless. If you’re a business owner with a total collapse in revenue, $1500 per fortnight per employee isn’t going to keep your doors open. What business owner is going to stay open when they’re still making a loss? Better to fire everyone and “hibernate”.

    I have a friend with a business where revenue hasn’t dropped the prerequisite 30% to qualify, so he’ll still have to lay off staff. Very few businesses have a 30% margin.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      It’s made for fake businesses popping up to looting the government money. You will see lots of people driving around in brand new Porche and Tesla in a month.

      • Was thinking the same thing. The money isn’t going directly to employees, and it’s completely open to rorting. Someone enterprising will start up a company and hire a few mates on the cheap – Gunnamatta’s Chodley Wontok may rise again!

        • PlanetraderMEMBER

          You are going to struggle to do that as it relies on STP and had to have employees at 1 March and compare to turnover equivalent month in previous year.Hard to rort this one, but where there’s a will …..

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      What do you expect from something pulled together in one (1!!!!!!) day. On the abc they said that last week treasury, ato and others were preparing options papers.

      But the actual thing was put together in 2/3 of a day.

      $130 billion. 16% of annual gdp. And there nuffs through it together in a few hours.

    • ApproachingZero, you just don’t get it do you? It’s not about keeping businesses trading. It’s about keeping landlords receiving rent.

      As I’ve said before, once you realise that every measure is to prevent a property market crash, everything Scumo does will make perfect sense.

      • 100% all about keeping those rents and mortgages paid. We actually couldn’t have the UK system of 80% as people are too highly leveraged for that. So went 100% for all the hospitality, retail and tourism workers.

    • I wondered that. If the business couldn’t be stuffed and it’s all too hard, so they intend to close, why would they even bother, therefore any employees would miss out too.

    • This Gubmint is useless – run by a marketing bully and a wannabe tennis pro. What in the fck would they know about the real world. The rest? Professional politicians i.e. as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike.

  5. Oi Gav, you might get corona dole after all, hopefully your missus earns under $80k yr

    Edit: Also, how does this wage subsidy apply to casuals who have already been let go? Do I get rehired?

      • Do you view yourself as a commodity which is relative to other commodities in a market place?

      • How good is lifting

        You only have yourselves to blame

        Or, not to cut to fine a point on it, you could be glad to be in your position and healthy

        I also get nothing but happy to have a job and keep family safe

      • Gav, next time you want to have a go, DON’T. I can’t handle the consequences of you breaking the world.

      • I’m with you, Gav. Three fcken stimulus packages and every one has a lumpa coal in it (for me).

        • Thing is I don’t want a handout, despite my joking about. I actually do think a job is the best form of welfare, but just make it fair for everyone and give them a form of UBI for 3 months no matter their employment status and make it easy to understand and administer. In 12 months they can check tax returns to determine if people were overpaid or underpaid and adjust accordingly. Not hard. Unless you’re ScoMo and co. I’m self isolating but only because I’ve got some savings to rest on. But if I didn’t I’d be moving around looking for a job.

          So to prevent that UBI is what’s needed.

          • *sheepishly*
            Agreed. My frustration is with administration of it all. It’s beyond stupid. I grew up believing only the crème de la crème became politicians (which they were to the extent that successful businessmen became pollies) but now we are run by people who have no idea about the real world. In a crisis the people who have no idea are devising policies for the real world. We are mere weeks into the crisis and yet these clowns are trying to work out what the real answer is.

      • Yeah, just ‘stood down’ …. temporarily.

        There’ll phone calls tomorrow — Hey come back, all is forgiven (for now … snicker …)

  6. bit of RE pron..
    just spoke to a mate who is (for another 2 weeks) still renting in Cronulla and decided him and hi wife to move with his mother. When he called the agent he was told that he was the 11th person giving such notice on the same day. Few days later agent offered them $100 per week discount but my mate turned the offer down.
    How many owner occupier will be moving with their parents and try to lease their properties? I would not like to own IP during this period.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Next cab off the rank for a fix from the comedy duo, Scotty and Joshie, so nothing to see here – move on?

      • he just gave 2 week notice to the RE agent as they decided to move with his mom. my mate did not ask for rent to go down or anything.

          • exactly.. they are vacating the property next week. Scumo will not be able to keep the house of cards standing. On that same day 11 people gave notice that they are leaving. Doubt other RE agents would be in better position.
            Things will get even worse as owner occupiers start listing their properties for lease as they too move with their parents.

        • innocent bystanderMEMBER

          agree the outlook looks bleak for landlords as tenants leave for cheaper pastures.
          I would have thought most tenants were on a lease, or if the lease expired on periodic tenancy?
          Rules vary from state to state tho – here in WA once on a periodic lease then tenant has to give 21 days notice.

          once financial pressure is applied to relationships and they fracture then even more household reformations – even in normal times partner swapping is a big driver of housing turnover.

          • Well … it’s been several hours and no Reusa to comment on ‘partner swapping’. He must’ve just switched to the NBN.

    • Plus all the AirBnb properties now listed For Rent.

      And the best bit is with unemployment so high we can’t exactly fly in a million jimmy grants to take up the rental slack. In fact, once the welfare for temp visa holders ends then many of them will fly back home.

      • Borders closed for at least 6 months. Once they open net migration will go negative as people with mortgage holidays flee from their negative equity situation (6 months capitalised interest on a 90%+ LVR plus the dip in the property market, equity mate gone).

      • It’s funny you should mention the Jimmies and times likes these. When you’re a foreigner, footloose and fancy free somewhere in the world, your freedom is absolute and you think of the world as your playground. But the moment the borders start shutting and flights stop, reality descends like a tonne of bricks and you just want to be home with your mum. I seriously think the ‘world as your playground’ mentality is going to take a serious beating and for many this will preclude the risks of being stranded so far away from family. Even the backpackers in London, locked down (indefinitely) in some filthy dive as they are, will start to dream of more wholesome times, gathered with family and friends back home.

    • Interesting. My lease is finished and I am now ongoing. Agent says landlord wants to put the rent up. This despite never doing any repairs in all the years I have been here.
      I told the agent he should perhaps speak to the landlord about the current economic situation and weigh up the fact that I will be demanding my list of repairs be done or 1) I will go to tribunal and request they be done or 2) Will leave.
      I told him that someone who is in a relative secure job and able to pay rent every week is golden during this period.
      He said he will speak to the landlord again.

      • Clearly Negative Gearing isn’t working out for your landlord when they’re out of a job and there are no taxes to get reimbursed for… Me thinks they are trying to MAKE your property positively geared by just upping the rent.. how simples!

        • So true. To think we fought an election about 9 months ago on two tax loopholes of negative gearing and franking credits and both have gone to zero for a lot of the populace after fighting to preserve them. Not to mention balancing the budget, all poof and it’s gone.

      • If it is easy for you to move, then I strongly recommend you ask around and see if you can get a better deal. You could try for something like: “I will signup for full price, but want 50% reduction for 1st 3 months”

      • I’m not sure I’d have even bothered to outline any grievances or highlight the current economic crisis facing the country. I’d have said to the agent – I’ll look around first to see if there are any better (and cheaper) options and get back to you.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Geez ya mate’s mum is going to be busy if her son was the 12th that day to give the same notice. Hope she has a large house

  7. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Any recommendations on a trading platform to short, commsec stopped it, and I got some hot tips to lose lots of money on, mainly aviation related 🤪

      • I signed up with IG Index last week. You can short most of the ASX 200 and SP500 from what I’ve seen so far. The spread can be rough though on some stocks.

        • I used IG once too. Easy to use.

          Did my dough though…never want to relive that again.

          Surely shorting time was weeks ago, before the ass fell out? Balls of steel required to do it in this market.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Be careful. Short selling is a tricky business. I do it via ETFs only via my regular online broker – even then it can be a wild ride. It’s very possible you are smarter or more ballsy than me though. Not saying don’t do it. Am saying it is not for those with faint hearts or shallow pockets.

    • ASX listed or overseas? Try a couple of different platforms – hopefully someone will have borrow available. IG, Interactive Brokers… Or try structuring your trade using options, though you might pay a volatility premium.

      • Volatility is ridiculous at the moment. Might calm down over the course of this week but even deep OOTM options aren’t cheap.

        • as in WebJet?
          Having twice used what they pass off as their ‘service’ I have desired to see them fail for years.
          If so, they are currently suspended on the ASX. Id be concered about a market maker that lets you establish a new position given trading in the underlying security is suspended.

          https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200330/pdf/44ghyhmn4mmpdk.pdf

          May have no choice other than to wait till they resume trading after their capital raising. Expect to see a lot of companies do dillutitive raisings.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Ok, Yes they’re proper fooked apparently, and looks like another short I’ll miss fuk it, they’ll most probably gap down massive on reopening

          • Yeah.. say you have missed that doughnut. Based on the directors notices they are going to get their clocks cleaned.

    • Anyone load up on ASX200 shorts at 3.58 pm today? Might have been a nice entry point given the lunatic surge at closing.

      • Didn’t Chris Becker say he got some BBOZ late in the day. Might have been a bit early though.

        • It’s a long time since I read the prospectus of BBOZ but from memory it doesn’t trade in the first or last 15 minutes of trading (perhaps that’s when they close out their options / futures positions or something).

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Seeing how I’ve missed webjet going to the wall BBOZ could be an option soon, anyone else got some not inside knowledge that is inside knowledge

  8. Giggity….
    https://www.propertychat.com.au/community/threads/non-permanent-resident-tenants-on-student-visas.44805/#post-807248

    We have international students sharing a house. We pay all the bills, electricity, gas, water etc.

    We just received a group email saying that they have all lost their jobs and are experiencing financial hardship and hence are requesting a reduction in rent.

    These students cannot access Centre Link . I thought that those on a Student Visa had to demonstrate to the government that they had a certain amount of money in the bank to pay for rent , living expenses, tuition and an airline ticket back home , if I am correct ???

    These students are only here temporarily, some only 6 months and then go back home.
    How do we deal with this?

    • “ thought that those on a Student Visa had to demonstrate to the government that they had a certain amount of money in the bank“

      Yeah maybe they did. One one day, once. Then they spent their entire safety buffer on some other sh!t just like you did you useless specufestor-pustule.

      “How do we deal with this”? – ummm who cares. Sell the property? Declare bankruptcy? Why not both?

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Yes! This is the bit I don’t get. If it ain’t working as an investment then GET OUT. Sell the bloody thing. What’s all the sniviling blackadder style for handouts and help to save the property value?!. These people are pathetic.

        • Well put.

          I assume it’s because –
          – they haven’t bought an “investment” they’ve bought a fail safe iron clad money making retirement plan, no need to think about anything ever again
          – they’ve fallen for marketing which assures them that rents can never go down (the “rent ratchet”) and property prices only go up
          – they have gone all in on this strategy (I don’t just mean money, I mean their life, retirement, self esteem and ego)
          – and they have no plan B.

          Sad!

          • Goldstandard1MEMBER

            That’s the thing right? Nobody sees property as “nope that didn’t work so better sell and save the leaking”.

            They do everything to keep it because it has to go up eventually-It JUST HAS TO!!!
            A lot of people are gong to go down with their ships on this one.

      • I’m sorry, I appear to be experiencing an extreme bout of Schadenfreude. A bout so extreme I may require hospitalisation.

    • I had completely forgotten about all the students that were working for cash. The news for prospective home owners gets better every day.

      • I will dance on every one of their graves. I promise.

        The home owners, that is. The students, I feel sorry for.

    • There’s another thread there about the effects of Covid19 on being a landlord where they admit that they have to play it tough, but know they won’t get an eviction. Quite funny how property managers and landlords are going to have to do some actual work now.

      We’ve been advised by insurers to follow the process as usual- Notice to Remedy, Notice to Leave, Tribunal, etc.

      The reality is that the tribunal hearings are going to be significantly delayed AND I’ve already heard that in existing cases, Adjudicators are refusing to evict people who are experiencing hardship. This is going to really suck if you have an awful tenant who deserves to be thrown out, but it creates a legitimate opportunity for us to work with people that are doing their best to keep a roof over their head.

    • “Are they not entitled to some form of centrelink from their country of origin, considering the current circumstances and an inability to return “home” ?”
      LOL. If the 3rd worlders could get centrelink at home they wouldn’t f*ckin be here!

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      Whatever the end result of this, I suspect the gloss is permanently off the university sector trading faux education for PR. Ironically, ScoMo’s yielding to the uni lobby and opening the floodgates to the 30,000+ disease vectors at exactly the worst time possible may just be the very thing a critical mass of the public needed to bring this scam into their consciousness. Whereas before they would probably have nodded and ignored it, now that they fear for their lives and their economic futures, I suspect it’s doing a wonderful job of concentrating minds on how we ended up with literally millions of non-residents with zero backup resources or real connections sitting inside our borders.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Tradie friends who ban all political discussion over beers are now taking notice and paying attention to what is going on.
        Status Quo Politicians are about to be put on notice.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      They must leave and return home to their own country.
      If they cannot afford the flight the Government should pay for it,…but no future visa into the country should be allowed with out the cost of this flight being reimbursed to the Government.

    • How do we deal with this?
      Offer to buy each student a ticket home via cruise ship, and then rent the house out to a deserving Aussie family at a fair price.

    • Anyone whose chief argument is “it’s not fair” has already lost the argument.

      Vibra-boy needs to learn to phrase his argument as “it will assist the interests of certain elites and Mates if my group is given cash, because…”

      Give him 48 hours and he’ll get it right.

    • I just responded to him. As young man many years ago I used to worked OS as temporary worker. When work dried up I would go back home. How can I expect the Gov from another country to pay me social security if I am not permanent resident or citizen of that country?

    • Seriously though… is it ok to say to these temp workers “well just fvck off then, we don’t need you anymore”?

      That’s my gut reaction and feels so right…but I want to understand the valid counter argument (if there is one).

      • there is no counter argument. there was an need for extra workers (fake need or not that’s irrelevant now) and that dried up. Any foreign workers that took that chance and did not save enough by now is simply bad luck. Same if you make bad investment decision when investing. I’ve been there and lost on couple of occasions having to head back home hungry.

        • Yeah all of us foreigners living in China who were not expats but local hires, knew we were on our own if the shtf. We all made sure we had our ‘get out of dodge’ fund and plans (I didn’t for almost a year after being screwed over when a company went broke and it was extremely stressful). It would have never occurred to us to ask the Chinese gov for a handout. If you’re not a citizen but on a temporary migration visa (or in my case a work visa) you know you aren’t a citizen or have PR and that you aren’t worth anything when things go south. Always, always, always have your exit fund. Now I understand that many of these people are here under exploitative migration systems and that they may owe significant debts to their migration enablers etc., but in that case they can rest easy in that they’re in Australia, they aren’t going to die from starvation, not are they likely to die from civil unrest. And if the worst happens they also are going to be given some sort of medical treatment regardless of ability to pay (unlike in China where if you can’t pony up the money, you die, regardless of who you are). No one appreciates the certainties of their life being upended, but there is not a lot for them to complain about in reality.

          • +1 that’s why I was a bit surprised that the Rio guys didn’t have a better escape plan.

          • Well said, popstar. And an excellent ‘relative’ backdrop. No gweilo has any pretensions about where they stand when they’re on foreign soil — like we’ll demand equal treatment in a foreign land, or demand not to be referred to in derogatory terms. Like anyone would listen and like anyone would care. What moron would even expect that, and yet — we live in a country crawling with morons who’d expect that every visitor (on whatever terms) be accorded respect bordering on sycophancy.

      • I think it is perfectly valid. They are TEMP workers. We allow them here at our discretion in return for their work we pay them wages. When the we no longer required them they are repatriated.
        When estimates of 2 million unemployed are bandied about I don’t see why the 2.3 million temp visas holders aren’t immediately repatriated.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I’m not sure it’s a counter-argument, but it is a valid point: do you remember what things were like when lazy, whyte-and-other-assorted, semi-unionised, semiliterate Australians were doing the jobs Australians didn’t want to do?

        Just sayin’. Literally.

        Through kids could get jobs then. There was that.

        • I like the idea of a bit of wage inflation at the low end…cafes and the like paying actual minimum wage or heaven forbid, above it.

      • They paid for expensive visas and were sold on certain ‘expectations’?

        The Gubmint is filthy and rancid and corrupt beyond measure. They have no morals.

    • you all know that I don’t shy to stand up if you chunts push it too far (in my view anyway) when it comes to racism but this got nothing to do with being racialist fckn. It’s just silly to expect foreign gov to support you because your business deal did not pan out. wtf. On what planet is this guy living on.

      MB – I will believe she likes me only if she offers a roll of TP.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Mate, if she offers you a roll, that’s when you’ll know she likes you. 😙

      • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

        Next piece of the puzzle is the private RTO’s all asking for a bailout.

        Their customers will head home as soon as flights restart.

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        Both there and elsewhere I see them confusing paying uni fees as paying “tax”. Well no, technically they are paying for a service called an education. The fact they know it’s a rort and therefore see it as a tax has no bearing on the ostensible reason the visa that allows them to be here exists in the first place.

  9. blindjusticeMEMBER

    For any country: X number of ventilator s ICU beds
    Y number of cases
    2-4 weeks to clear cases
    Z is 10-20% of y

    If the number of cases goes above the threshold so that z is greater than x then death rate goes nuts. Therefore we must lockdown and keep it in range. Right? Seems to be the plan everyone is following to some degree – or at least pretending to be. Now because it takes weeks to clear cases we can only turnover x and y once to maybe twice a month. Some really simple maths shows that it would take decades to achieve herd immunity without mass casualties. Impossible without letting it rip.

    A cure or vaccine is necessary. Wishing it doesn’t make it possible though. Therefore in my eyes it would be both quicker and cheaper to eradicate this with strict controls, masks etc. Once eradicated travel abroad is a different beast until other places eradicate it too or we never open to them. Alternatively if this becomes part of an annual cold and flu season or a general all year round thing it’s also not good enough as retirement aged life expectancy is gone. Toast.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      “Some really simple maths shows”

      and that’s your first hurdle. expecting Scotty and Josh to meet this threshold.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      I know a few ‘front line’ health workers (talking ER type specialists) who are all deeply worried and concerned about where we are heading. I listen to them more than Scotty and ol “She’ll be right” Murphy.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Perhaps, but they also talk a lot with the colleagues overseas too. They are pretty tight group professionally.

    • The vaccine will come quick and will be a placebo. Iceland has already identified 40 strains. It is mutating aggressively apparently and becoming more contagious and weaker at the same time. It will burn out in 1-2 yrs and turn in to the common cold.

      • Slow mutation rate mate, read the literature. (Don’t worry even epidemiologists don’t understand genetics)

    • It’s a good point, flattening the curve prolongs the period of the controlled curve. I guess it’s about getting us to the vaccine, though developing a reliable one for a novel virus is not a given despite all the hype. Reality is life won’t go back to normal for a long time. They’ll be border controls and other measures in place for longer than the authorities are letting us know from their modelling. The moment this realisation hits, markets will tank some more.

  10. China PlateMEMBER

    well those dow futures have turned out to be a flash in the pan…..hey St Peter

      • China PlateMEMBER

        with a five o’clock shadow like that i’m surprised they didn’t cut his throat and use his head at the local bowling alley

    • Interesting link. I don’t know too much about the debt markets, but I can see why the aud has just ripped since the bottom. the chart indicates they increased their AUD holdings by 33% in a week!! 40bill…..in a week. Our exports are 250 bill a year. Current account is around /- 10 bill a year !! and they did 40 bill in a week.This is absolutely criminal manipulation. i get stabilizing the dollar but jacking it up by 10-15 % . What a bunch of cvnts.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      I don’t know but let’s hope they tested everyone before they lock them in the mountain because otherwise every single one of them is going to get it. It’s clear this virus has been circulating around the US in massive numbers for longer than the last few weeks.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      It looks like they are escaping to the evacuation site through the star gate to me!

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      If you’re gonna strike first with nukes. In the middle of a pandemic would be perfect timing.
      The only plausible strategy to avoid Mutually assured destruction is to target and take out a large percentage of your enemies Nuclear arsenal leaving enough of your own capacity to threaten to take out all the major population centres if your enemy refuses to make agreeable terms.
      An insane strategy I know but how sane and rational is any Authoritarian institution?
      Their behaviour is always paranoid

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Only 20 years to get back to the equivalent GDP!
        That’s a lot of breeding even with a female to male ratio of 10 to 1

      • You had me scared for a moment. I thought you were suggesting that they were going to put fluoride into the drinking water.

    • it looks to me like a standard procedure and I am sure Russia, China and few others done same.

  11. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Wrong spot but Ill leave it here.

    Responding to,

    CanuckDownUnder
    March 30, 2020 at 7:19 pm
    “Can you just knock this hooplehead off and feed him to Wu’s pigs?”

    How Good was Deadwood.
    One of my all time favorites.
    A brilliant depiction of Proto American Capitalism.
    Named my daughter after that traumatised blockhead little girl. When she finally spoke her name me and the wife looked at each other and finally agreed on a Name
    we both agreed wasn’t “Skanky”

    Steely fella that mister Wu,

    https://youtu.be/4KsU89R1A8M

    https://youtu.be/UZfkxem3Qhk

    • CanuckDownUnder

      Definitely one of the best, did another binge not long ago and will probably fit another one in before things go back to normalish. Great series to watch when you’re drinking alone!

      What did you think of the movie? I thought it worked simply due to nostalgia but wasn’t on the same level as the original run.

  12. China PlateMEMBER

    5 billion a week to subsidize wages
    Where is whinging Wendy or is she in the centrelink line

  13. it’s now or never. As China heads for even worse recession as EU and US are shutting and Chinese factories realise they have no customers, watch all empty apartments in Syd and Mel being listed For Lease or Sale as starving Chinese become desperate to put food on the table.

    • I think the world should Boycott China anyway. Especially if they re-open wet markets. Time that we told China to get inline or we will cut off their economy. Then we can overthrow the commies once and for all.

      • Wrinkled Sachs

        You seem like a better person than this generally Gav – the China baiting is so extreme – here is the direct results of your words as it filters down to the younger, less educated.

        https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/frnqy1/asian_sisters_get_harassed_at_3pm_in_marrickville/

        Austraila has wet markets – have you been to Queen Victoria Market ? Go there are 5am – take a picture sea food, meat, goats, chickens everything.

        We freak out at foreigners eat “strange things” – we eat kangaroo – I know people who eat all manner of food from turtle to Dugong.

        But eat traditional food and you are a heathen, a backwards findel. You must eat white chicken breast and steak – anything else is backwards.

        • @Winkled Sachs, I think the difference between China and here is rule of law around trafficing certain species. For example Pangolin would be banned along with many other endangered species. But you must look at the conditions of these wet markets with animals being slaughtered on the spot. Not in an abbotoir and the blood and guts dealt with.

          I have seen footage of dogs being burnt while still alive. Stomach churning for a dog lover to see. I know many western slaughter houses are abhorrent places and to be honest this whole situation has made me feel like I want to become vegan myself.

          So it’s not that the Queen Vic Market is without fault, but the behavior of China on a global level is shocking and driving extinction of many species (rhino horn for example) and they must be stopped. Because their traditional medicine is just like religion full of shyte and not based on any scientific reality.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            “I have seen footage of dogs being burnt while still alive.”

            They torture the Dog because it is believed that the adrenaline release makes the meat taste better.
            Its usually done in front of the customer so they know its actually been done properly and that they aren’t being ripped of buying dog meat from an untortured dog.

            Cultural relativists can fk off.

          • Made my blood curl to see it. The crying and yelping as it was torched. I hate to think anything suffers unnecessarily.

          • “Unnecessarily”

            Millions of cows chickens pigs sheep dying every year unecesssarily, too

            Kill lines – delightful

        • Would suggest we have a much higher bar to operate any food outlets, storage or abattoir including such things as Licencing, food safety standards and codes of practice including inspections, refrigeration etc
          Using Kangaroo from your example ……….. “Stringent quality controls underline all aspects of the kangaroo industry and the harvest process is tightly regulated and monitored. All kangaroos must be harvested according to the National Code of Practice for the Humane Harvesting of Kangaroos and Wallaby for Commercial Purposes. In addition, Harvesters and Processors must comply with the Australian Standard for the Hygienic Production of Game Meat for Human Consumption.”.
          Indigenous Australians have rights to bush foods and have been prepping and eating it for 1000’s of years. They don’t import rare and/or unknown species for eating or imagined medical and sexual benefits.

    • Wrinkled Sachs

      Do you really think China is the one in trouble here. Pandemic under control, factories re-opening, business starting – or the west which has just printed $7 Trillion dollars and failed while a million Americans are about to perish with almost every single European country in catastrophic crisis.

      Really ?

      USS carriers have had to head into port because their ships are infested with the virus, the ports they have docked in and the bases serving them are ravaged by the virus.

      The US held war games with 30k troops in the EU and pretty much handed the entire military the pox.

      Reckon we might be in trouble here.

      • Everyone’s in trouble mate. China is re-opening their factories but who are they going to be making things for. As you clearly stated US and EU are in trouble and on top of it they are just starting to shut down. Chinese economy is not like Russia’s which has manufacturing geared to service Russian markets. China depends too much on exporting trinkets to the west.
        Everyone is in trouble and factories will start shedding jobs as orders from the west are being canceled and no new orders will be coming. This is the picture you will be seeing in the next few months.
        Apart from that I agree with rest of your view.

      • Everyone is in deep doo doo. There’s no easy way out of this calamity for anyone. We are so busy spending money to get to the other side of this pandemic no one has stopped to even think the world will look and need to be different at the end of this. This threat doesn’t go back in the bottle and the implications on trade, travel, supply chains etc. plus it’s popped the asset bubble and will send governments bankrupt. They are saying temporary to put in on their sovereign credit card, but this ain’t temporary. Everyone’s forgotten the GFC was temporary but the solution was still more active than ever on Feb 20 2020. This is short stimulus, you gotta be kidding me. All the engines are stalling one after the other.

    • But, Niko, don’t you know that, no matter how bad the rest of the world is doing, everyone will still want to own property here? No really …. I read it from several eminent voices on these boards. I can just feel the tsunami of ‘mea culpas’ coming down the pike.

  14. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Just put the bins out. (Yeah, you all want to know that.)
    Anyone notice how little waste is produced when shutin?

    • Opposite here. I’m making all meals at home. Not eating out anymore. So much more food here but less food waste since I’m using every single thing.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      Yeah, but I’m more than making up for it by filling the big yellow recycling bin with glass bottles every fortnight

        • Yep, ban single-use plastic bags yet pretty much everything you buy in shops comes in a plastic bag, the fruit has those irritating plastic labels on every piece and the kids’ sandwiches and fruit all go in disposable plastic bags.

          Are chunts farcking insulting me?!!

  15. migtronixMEMBER

    Tweet from Jericho – this one can see.
    “Imagine just realising that your 20 years of reporting about budget surpluses and deficits as though it mattered doesn’t”

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      People like a familiar narrative.
      My kids are always getting me to re-read their favourite stories to them at bedtime.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Animals in general don’t understand the concept of numbers greater than 4. Likewise, Republican voters don’t understand the concept of numbers greater than one million. To them, 2 million, 2 billion, 2 trillion, are all the same thing, which is why Trump can argue saving millions while spending trillions can balance the budget.

      I wish I am joking, but I’m not.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      Not sure how they put the genie back in the bottle after this one. The GFC seemed like a ‘one off’ and of course it was put down to Labor profligacy. Now we’ve had the mother of all stimulus programs (and growing by the day) by our ‘responsible economic managers’, the average wang or mo or in the street is entitled to ask “why then the permanent budget restrictions on [insert pet area of spending”] and in a sense they would be right. I think the leap to understanding, whether someone is an MMT acolyte or not, that the government is no way shape or form akin to a ‘large household’ in its spending decisions might still take a while to sink in though. The calls for massive budget spending on any perceived ‘major issue’ in the future will be deafening.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Every reporter should be asking ‘how are you going to pay for it?’ and ‘what do i do with this back in black mug?’

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          Scotty from marketing would stand with his hand on a bible and swear to dog that they didn’t see this coming.

          But he also strikes me as someone that is constantly surprised that the sun keep rising from the east (every single day… what are the odds?!?)

        • Lots of defeating silence from the media. No question around QE or where this money is going or how it helps anyone? It seems to me the rich will get a free pass again and in 5-10 years time people will see that this crisis was used to fuel more inequality again. But hey you got some free money and rent relief so just shut up.

    • “Mr Moselmane has also taken nine privately-funded trips to China since entering Parliament in 2009, with disclosure records showing his transport and hospitality costs were often met by Chinese government officials or agencies.”

      The comprising sh!t they must have on this bloke would be as extensive as it is disturbing.

  16. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    “Frantic negotiations are underway to save more hospitals from closing and ensure tens of thousands of beds could be used to treat coronavirus patients.

    Private hospital company Healthe Care has already stood down 800 staff and is putting in doubt 8000 beds at 34 private hospitals across Australia after the federal government cancelled elective surgeries in response to the COVID-19 spread.

    Chinese billionaire Liu Dian Bo bought Healthe Care for $900 million in 2015. Now, the company, which 9News understands was already facing financial pressure, is putting the heat on federal and state government for help.

    “We have received no firm proposals,” the company’s letter to staff said.

    “Regrettably, this has driven us to these immediate actions.”

    Other private hospitals are threatening to follow suit.

    “We need it to be solved by the end of this weekend or hospitals will start to close,” Australian Private Hospitals Association Michael Roff told 9News.”

    https://amp.9news.com.au/article/69040a83-b020-4b47-a543-24e2348788d4?__twitter_impression=true

    Time to seize and Nationalize like the Irish already have,
    https://twitter.com/NealeTowart/status/1243661628123402240?s=19

    • It’s also the product of the government not thinking things through properly. The public systems is funded by an annual budget from the state governments. The private system is funded by case payments per procedure through billing private health insurance (what you would call activity based funding). The government just banned elective procedures, I think category 2 and 3 which private hospitals do a lot of. So basically they’re funding disappears as of Wednesday this week. Huge drop in revenue and a whole bunch of overheads remain. I’m sure they are also posturing for their own rescue package to compensate for this and absorbing the loss wouldn’t get anyone’s attention.

  17. Anyone else notice how neither Scummo or Fraudenburg look the least bit frazzled? They dont look like they have missed a minute of sleep nor do they look worried at all facing the biggest pandemic and economic calamity in 100 years. So are they just fvcking thick as two short planks or absolute sociopaths?

    • anything short of a coup they are guaranteed huge salaries/pensions for life. they know this and they just don’t give a flying fck about anything else. Every time Scumo looks at the cameras and responds to a journo he sends that same message with his smirk.

    • Look at it this way, they now have something to blame for the bubble being burst. Job done. They kept it inflated as long as possible. Now it’s Labor’s fault

  18. blindjusticeMEMBER

    > In 80 in-patients receiving a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin we noted a clinical improvement in all but one 86 year-old patient who died, and one 74 year old patient still in intensive care unit. A rapid fall of nasopharyngeal viral load tested by qPCR was noted, with 83% negative at Day7, and 93% at Day8. Virus cultures from patient respiratory samples were negative in 97.5% patients at Day5. This allowed patients to rapidly discharge from highly contagious wards with a mean length of stay of five days.

    https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf

    • arthritic kneeMEMBER

      That is why playing for time works. There are some very smart people out there working on this 24/7. US style ‘Let it rip’ robs their people of the opportunity of improvements in care. Even if a ‘cure’ was found today the impact of this would be massive. It will be a mess but sometimes it pays to sandbag

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        A vaccine typically takes 3-4 years to reach approval, but that’s under normal circumstances.

        But even with extraordinary circumstances like these, the insane amount of variables that must be accounted for; and the potential risk of getting it wrong (they are only going to vaccinate the entire planet of 7 billion effectively at once) means that this will still take considerable time.

        Every reputable estimate by ppl that actually do this stuff (ie, not politicians or economists or Alan Jones) say early 2021 is a perfect scenario, later in 2021 if they encounter at least some setbacks.

  19. Ronin8317MEMBER

    The number of cases in Australia today stands at 4223, with 240 new cases. That puts the percentage increase to 6%. At this rate we may stay under 10k total, but the number is somewhat deceptive since a big chuck of new cases had been those returning from overseas. We will need another week of data to see if we’re out of the woods. While this is an achievement, the cost to the economy has been enormous. If we had gone hard right in the beginning like NZ, the lockdown would be over around Easter already. I expect NZ to lift their level 4 lockdown by the end of April.

    ScoMo recently annouced two big policy : 6 month ‘rent memorandum’ and ‘Job Keeper’ allowance, but nobody knows how it works yet. This brings ‘policy on the fly’ to a new level.

    • Labor need to mercilessly and ceaselessly prosecute scrotumo’s failure until they’re out of office

      Then uncover what went on with the unis

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        The ‘word on the street’ is that after 6 months of not paying rent, the tenant cannot be put onto the tenancy blacklist. Note that it won’t go on the tenant’s credit report either, meaning only suckers will pay rent in the next 6 month.

        Technically speaking, you can bankrupt someone for a debt over 5k (threshold is now 20k, but should revert back after 6 months). However, the cost to bring the action using lawyers will cost more than the rent owed in most cases, making it a moot exercise unless you know they have asset you can go after. So expect a lot of DIY landlord going to the bankruptcy court and getting it very, very wrong. I didn’t believe this comes from a LNP Prime Minister : the anger from the landlords will far outweight ALP’s dividend imputation proposal.

        • Its glorious isnt it? Imagine when its all over he says we need to scrap negative gearing to balance the budget! Lol, i would die from schadenfreudegasms. The little landlords would be apoplectic.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      Job keeper was put together in less than one day.

      By the stupidest PM and treasurer to ever grace our parliament. They are lucky they got the spelling right. They have basically thrust the entire thing onto the ATO…

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Bending and twisting through hoops and whatever it takes to make the assistance all about business to avoid claims of their stimulus being no different to KRudds $900 cheques.
        All just transparent and poorly executed Unspeak every time they concoct a new response.

        Pathetic and hard to watch.

  20. Am I right in saying real estate inspections are effectively banned ?

    An agent can go to your house as it’s for work
    But a potential buyer? Or is it ok if it’s the agent and one buyer only 2 people max as long as you’re not there

    What about if you need to inspect a rental to live in ?!

    Anyone know?

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      They can do house inspections but it’s 1 person or couple at a time. You also can’t touch anything and they try and limit the time.

      Many are rapidly trying to get video walk throughs or 3D maps produced.

      • I’m told that McGrath at least have been told 1 person in house with agent – for a couple or family buying this might mean 1 person inspect inside with the other outside with kids

        We have acreage anyway so people want to check sheds and the land so that’s ok

        It’s just not unambiguously clear anywhere how to handle – obviously not a high order priority I get that

      • Given current circumstances I think not. I’d try to take photos in lieu of an inspection and tell them you have concerns re: people coming around etc..

      • Just tell ’em you’re sick and see if they still want to do their rental inspection for the landlord.

        There’s no way I’d let a real estate agent come in just to do a check for the landlord. Tenants need to have that protection put in straight away.