Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Outside local stocks its been a solid session throughout Asia for risk markets, but US futures are pulling back as all eyes are on the US Congress passing the stimulus bill. USD is losing ground against the major currency pairs, although gold remains steady, the Aussie dollar is now above 61 cents.

The Shanghai Composite is up 1.4% to 2803 points while the Hang Seng Index is up nearly the same to 23634 points, still unable to keep above above its high moving average on the daily chart and hence still in swing mode only:

Japanese share markets are bouncing back from their previous falls, with the Nikkei 225 about to close 2% higher to be back above the 19000 point level, despite a much stronger Yen as the USDJPY pair continues its breakdown below its ascending triangle pattern, now heading back to last week’s breakout level at the mid 108s:

The ASX200 is the only market to retreat, as profit taking and new short positions push the market down over 3% going into the close, currently at 4933 points. Meanwhile the Aussie dollar is hurriedly getting back to overbought levels, now almost above the 61 cent level:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are in a minor retreat mode, with the four hourly S&P futures chart showing the start of a rollover:

The economic calendar finishes the week with the latest US PCE print, which again, is backwards looking so all eyes will be on the COVID-19 (aka FreedomFlu) data and the passing of the US Congress stimulus bill.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • I’ll re-post on Weekend Links but I’m hearing from ‘gubmint sources’ that there will be a Big Announcement on Sunday –assuming total lock-down from Monday. Prepare accordingly.

        • Looks like there are a few others onto it. Maybe not Monday — there’ll need to be a few days to prepare I would think.

          Coles v busy this morning.

  1. I think you guys are being a bit hard on Scotty from Marketing. The poor guy’s doing the best he can with the limited intellect he has.

  2. Jumping jack flash

    Woolies to hire 20K people to cope with panic buying.
    Recovery is near!

    20K isn’t going to be nearly enough once we go into lockdown and rely on deliveries.

    Jobs growth, wages growth. Debt growth.

      • Jumping jack flash

        It will grow immensely as we go into April lockdown.
        U/E capped, spending up, nothing to worry about

    • If Amazon was smart enough they would have positioned themselves to take a chunk of the market share. Never waste a crisis and all that. What looks like happening is the Big 2 will gain some share at the expense of IGA.

  3. This is interesting if someone wants to keep an eye on it. All the AirBnB’s coming to market or existing tennants moving back in with parents? Info from the Whingepool RE thread.

    RE rental listings

    Australia wide:
    Wednesday: 89605
    Thursday: 90780
    Friday: 91578 (at 8am) we shall see at 9pm

    Victoria:
    21623 as of 8am. Hadn’t looked previously.

    For sale:
    Victoria
    Wednesday (screenshot) 50848

    Friday 8am 53426

  4. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Ruby Princess Fail:

    “Imagine making stopping boats the centerpiece of your entire political platform for 10 years, and then failing to stop the one boat that actually [email protected]#king REALLY mattered…….”

  5. Here’s this afternoon’s monetary mechanism for idiots thread

    The BoE has officially published that QE increases broad money, and that it involves crediting reserve accounts which creates deposits in commercial accounts

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2009/quantitative-easing.pdf?la=en&hash=0A59C421AC345729A53E1D976D0064E046884369

    On 5 March, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided
    to reduce Bank Rate to 0.5% and to undertake what is
    sometimes called ‘quantitative easing’. This meant that it
    began purchasing public and private sector assets using
    central bank money. In this way, the Committee is injecting
    money into the economy to provide an additional stimulus to
    nominal spending in order to meet the inflation target.

    The aim of quantitative easing is to inject money into the
    economy in order to revive nominal spending. The Bank is
    doing that by purchasing financial assets from the private
    sector. When it pays for those assets with new central bank
    money, in addition to boosting the amount of central bank
    money held by banks, it is also likely to boost the amount of
    deposits held by firms and households.

    If the Bank of England purchases
    an asset from a non-bank company, it pays for the asset via the
    seller’s bank. It credits the reserve account of the seller’s bank
    with the funds, and the bank credits the account of the seller
    with a deposit.

    https://www.pragcap.com/yes-the-fed-does-directly-influence-the-broad-money-supply-through-qe/

    So Qe “increases the quantity of money in exchange for reducing the quantity of bonds.”

    Reducing the quantity of bonds – should make them in more relative demand, which is what I assume pushes yield down?
    Increasing the quantity of money – should make all assets in more relative demand, juicing asset prices and also juicing consumer prices eventually (though far more convoluted as it has to trickle down)

    Therefore, how can QE be anything but inflationary for all assets and CPI? Even ignoring its effects on rates.

    They are increasing M2
    So sweeper is sort of right when he says “people liquidating assets for cash”
    But the emphasis is wrong. Its more the RBA making people want to liquidate assets for cash

    This is why M2 increases during QE operations
    It is not at all restricted to reserve bank operations

    • migtronixMEMBER

      “The aim of quantitative easing is to inject money into the
      economy in order to revive nominal spending”

      Lolololol! And we’re the idiots?

    • The RBA is not following the BoE’s approach of buying assets from non-bank corporates as far as I know. If they did then that would directly increase M2 as they say..

      Sequencing is important. QE is the response to the scramble for cash.
      eg. S 1: households and businesses scramble for cash and sell assets. This pushes up yields
      S2: at higher yields banks buy assets in exchange for deposits. Increasing broad money.
      S3. More deposits increases banks demand for reserves – assuming the desired reserve ratio is stable (in reality desired reserve ration increases in a panic).
      S3. CB responds by creating more reserves

      Also if it works QE should increase yields following the initial liquidity effect as the bond market prices in higher inflation.

      • Sweeper

        If they buy the bonds from commercial banks in exchange for reserves the result seems the same

        That is, there are now fewer bonds available for purchase from deposits
        But government spending is still increasing deposits
        Therefore, there is more broad money in the system

        It is essentially unsterilising government spending

        S 1: households and businesses scramble for cash and sell assets. This pushes up yields
        S2: at higher yields banks buy assets in exchange for deposits. Increasing broad money.
        S3. More deposits increases banks demand for reserves – assuming the desired reserve ratio is stable (in reality desired reserve ration increases in a panic).
        S3. CB responds by creating more reserves

        Im already lost at step 2 here
        Banks exchange deposits for assets

        What do you mean by this
        That doesn’t change the amount of deposits in the system
        Only loan creation increases deposits

        on the other hand if the RBA is actually purchasing from private holders by crediting their bank then it would actually increase deposits (as stated by BoE)

        Could you go into more detail

        • It isn’t really the same because the banks can just leave the reserves on deposit at the CB. Especially when they earn interest, as the RBA is now doing (10bps).
          Plus it isn’t just bonds it’s all fixed income securities which the private sector wants to unload for cash.

          Loans create deposits is an MMT meme which is too simplistic. Banks create deposits and banks write new loans. Both are done by different people in the bank and there is no real cause and effect relationship in the aggregate.
          In reality in aggregate banks demand for safe assets (securities and reserves) and public’s demand for deposits (v yield) is in fact what drives changes in qty of deposits over the short period.
          When new lending is strong deposit growth is weak and visa versa because the two products are driven by unrelated demands. New lending (risk and absence of liquidity), new deposits (safety, liquidity and absence of yield). This ties back to data.
          If you really wanted to track movements in both sides of a banks balance sheet you would see that there safe assets (securities/reserves) moves in tandem with money like deposits, and new loans moves in tandem with term funding and shareholders capital.
          When the data comes out it will show over the last month a big increase in M2 and fall in new credit.
          The bank creates money when it buys things, this could be a new loan. But in the real world it is securities.
          BoE’s approach is much better by the way. Phil Lowe is stuck in 2007.

          • “It isn’t really the same because the banks can just leave the reserves on deposit at the CB. Especially when they earn interest, as the RBA is now doing (10bps).”

            If the CB is buying bonds from commercial banks, I am assuming that commercial banks only used reserves to purchase those in the first place?
            So, the government deficit spends and credits commercial banks with reserves and deposits
            The reserves are used by the banks to purchase the concomittant government bonds
            Presumably the deposits are also removed? Otherwise all government spending would increase M2 regardless of bond issuance

            Why do commercial banks hold government bonds at all? Is the bond coupon paid to them in the form of only reserves? Or is it paid in actual M2?

            “Loans create deposits is an MMT meme which is too simplistic. Banks create deposits and banks write new loans. Both are done by different people in the bank and there is no real cause and effect relationship in the aggregate.”

            Well I think that is patently untrue. BoE also published a document which supports it

            “In reality in aggregate banks demand for safe assets (securities and reserves) and public’s demand for deposits (v yield) is in fact what drives changes in qty of deposits over the short period.”

            Again, I ‘m not sure if the bank is exchange deposits, reserve or either in exchange for bonds

            “When new lending is strong deposit growth is weak and visa versa because the two products are driven by unrelated demands. New lending (risk and absence of liquidity), new deposits (safety, liquidity and absence of yield). This ties back to data.”

            Actually the prag cap link I posted shows that deposits and new loans are very tightly correlated, until QE started

            “When the data comes out it will show over the last month a big increase in M2 and fall in new credit.”
            I contend that this is from QE, which is what the pragcap link shows also

            “The bank creates money when it buys things, this could be a new loan. But in the real world it is securities.”

            This doesn’t make any sense to me. The bank creates money when it creates a loan
            When it buys things, it either does so with deposits (in which case no new money is created), or with reserves (maybe?) which is a transaction at the reserve bank and doesn’t affect deposits (otherwise who’s deposits would it affect?)

          • they buy securities from households/corporates and in return credit their deposit at the bank – could be independent transactions but the effect is the same. reserves aren’t involved unless the deposit then leaves the bank. Which is why they would want more reserves to maintain the desired reserve ratio.
            They would only use the reserves to buy securities if they were buying off other banks or from the CB (quantitative tightening).

            btw the BoE paper has been misinterpreted. The paper said at a micro level banks create money when they make a loan. Most economists know that and have for a very long time.
            But that is different to saying total volume of new lending drives total volume of new deposits at a macro level. Because it doesn’t. And the paper didn’t say that.
            the coupon is paid from the Treasury deposit at the CB not reserves.

      • Sweep, the sequencing is largely irrelevant — QE boosts the money supply.

        An increasing money supply should lead to higher yields but often it doesn’t for a number of reasons:
        – speculators buy bonds to front-run central bank buying of bonds (CBs are price insensitive, remember)
        – QE drains the market of collateral – scarce collateral leads to higher prices (lower yields)
        – CBs have taken to ‘yield curve targeting’ i.e. they stipulate what yields should be across the curve and buy/sell bonds accordingly

    • I thought this was all known?

      QE boosts the money supply — that’s it, nothing more to it.

    • Jumping jack flash

      So.. if this is meant to grow the money supply then where’s my QE cheque?
      What.. there isn’t one?

      Pretty sure this is all banking gobbeldygook for – “we give the banks money so they can lend it cheaper to the rubes who still think taking on even bigger piles of debt than the rubes last week had to take on to hand to the ones selling houses is a good idea, and good for the economy”.

      I suppose it is good for the sellers of the houses, but for everyone else it is a terrible thing.

  6. Who ever decided to let the Brisbane city council elections go ahead in the current time needs a slap upside the head.

  7. https://www.pragcap.com/yes-the-fed-does-directly-influence-the-broad-money-supply-through-qe/

    So Qe “increases the quantity of money in exchange for reducing the quantity of bonds.”

    Reducing the quantity of bonds – should make them in more relative demand, which is what I assume pushes yield down?
    Increasing the quantity of money – should make all assets in more relative demand, juicing asset prices and also juicing consumer prices eventually (though far more convoluted as it has to trickle down)

    Therefore, how can QE be anything but inflationary for all assets and CPI? Even ignoring its effects on rates.

    They are increasing M2
    So sweeper is sort of right when he says “people liquidating assets for cash”
    But the emphasis is wrong. Its more the RBA making people want to liquidate assets for cash

    This is why M2 increases during QE operations
    It is not at all restricted to reserve bank operations

    Even the BoE says the same thing

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2009/quantitative-easing.pdf

    • Yeah problem is the massively deflationary concerns you have that are much more in the near term

    • an “unprecedented impact” on the sex worker community, which has urged the state government for some form of emergency relief.
      Surely it would be the former clients who need some form of emergency relief.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Over to Reusa for the industry support on this one – you’ve made a killing on IPs, so it’s up to you to bankroll this industry bailout (and partake at the same time – a win/win). This one’s not a priority for our happy clappy PM. Come on Reusa – do it for queen, Scotty and country.

      • Also really tough times for house burglars with all this work from home, another group for assistance?

      • I’m surprised the Gubmint doesn’t class brothels and the like as ‘essential’ — there’s gunna be an awful lot of pent up frustration by the time we come out the other side of this. The scale of social disorder could be quite epic.

  8. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Anyone notice SMH went into bat ON BEHALF OF CHANNEL 9, to get the PM to close down the NRL?

    Channel 9 significantly benefit financially from wrapping the season up.

    There was nothing wrong with the plan to go to Gladstone, all be isolated and play the season.

    What else has SMH pushed to close? NOTHING.

    The first corporate casualty when all this is over is tearing apart Channel 9 and Fairfax. What a disgrace.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Nah – Pete Costello’s chairman of Nine Entertainment, the ASX-listed owner of Fairfax and Nine TV – so, all good.

    • Nothing wrong with the plan? Seriously? I enjoy my NRL, but let’s be honest here, a lot of the players need to be told it’s wrong to crap in hotel hallways. What could possibly go wrong?

  9. happy valleyMEMBER

    OMG – at the “death”, all of a sudden many banks realise that they “need” retail depositors more than ever (for one more and final an.s job) so they are setting the “honey trap”, with to-die-for term deposit rate offers of 1.7% pa or thereabouts for 12 months (all savers will be dead by then) – tell the banks to take a running jump.

  10. here’s an idea.. anyone caught breaking the social distancing rules and gets infected will not qualify for ICU under any circumstances.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Geez, imagine being a health worker in a hospital having to walk through rows and rows of seated and coughing death stare carriers, every one of them knowing they’re not getting treated because numbers game.

        Jebus, I can feel the hate eminating just writing this…

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          If enough of them stared at just you could you burst into flames, it’s a pretty powerful stare so….

      • Obviously this was a comment not to be taken seriously but rather to highlight the occasional extreme ideas that get published here here…just fji incase anyone thinks it is serious.

  11. Morgue Exhibition Centre

    Jeff’s Shed

    could become a massive makeshift intensive care hospital, treating hundreds of seriously ill coronavirus patients

    sources with knowledge of the plans told The Age that preparations were also under way to use part of the riverside landmark as a temporary morgue to store what is feared could be a large number of bodies

    The state only had about 475 ICU beds before the crisis developed, compared with about 875 in NSW.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/jeff-s-shed-earmarked-for-giant-covid-19-hospital-and-morgue-20200326-p54eab.html

  12. I’m a doc who is forming part of a wuhan flu team in Aus. Happy to take anyones questions this arvo. Can’t guarantee length or accuracy of replies. All opinions are my own. AMA

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Jolly good of you in the dire circumstances that Stray now finds itself in.

      Your 5 top tips (max 1-line answer each for your sake), regarding dealing with the virus on a personal level are?

      • 1) STAY HOME. Encourage family members to do so too.
        2) Aim to stay healthy and optimise lifestyle as possible, ie sleep 8hrs a night minimum, try and improve diet – ie minimise insulin resistance (links to improved immunity
        3) Monitor your Mental health – this is going to last a while and the economic recovery even longer – try meditation
        4) Think about virus contact and spreading – you might only go out and touch a few things, but every surface you touch beyond this will lead to spread of the virus.
        5) Have a long supply of medications on hand (avoiding pharmacies later) and a list ready if needing to go to hospital

        Honestly, there’s no health tricks to avoiding this beyond minimising contact and washing your hands. I know it’s tempting but cutting back all unneccessary social gatherings and appointments is paramount. Start preparing now as though we’ve got Italy level restrictions and you’ll be ok. That said, I can’t emphasise enough home important it is to look after your own mental health

    • 1) How scared are you personally of contracting the disease?
      2) We saw that quite a few young doctors from Wuhan died of the coronavirus, do you think repeated exposure is especially dangerous?

      • It seems like the ‘dose’ makes the poison. Our shifts are in an interrupted fashion, although I don’t think they were set up specifically to reduce exposure. I figure I’m likely to get it, but hope that i’m part of the 80% with minimal or no disease. Thankfully I’m not doing any intubating etc.

        Appropriate PPE does protect and reduces risk of transmission. I’m also not a martyr and we’re being told explicitly (no shit) that even if someones lying on the floor in a room dying, to make sure we have appropriate equipment on before going in.

        • A few people have mentioned “dose”. It doesn’t make sense given that the virus replicates itself.

          What would make sense is doctors having a compromised immune system due to lack of rest. Also a higher probability of contracting secondary infection from one of many patients.

          • Going by my symptoms I would suspect the virus invading the thyroid…….the rolling fevers, the heart racing when least expected and the bowel and bladder loosening reminded me strongly of the wife’s bouts of De Quervain’s before we took her thyroid out.

        • If the dose makes the poison, does that mean it’s not really an efficient or effective replicator inside the body?

          Not a medical person, just a numbers guy, so that would be my takeaway from this oft-repeated comment.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      A “little birdie” tells me that hm520 might be a 12 year old aspiring medical student from Bathurst? True?

    • I am a doc too and disappointed that a bigotted sociopathic chunt like you ever got into med school or weedled yourself onto some Aus Covid medical team

    • oh! I have so many questions.
      1) Will similar cut-offs with regards to age also apply here if we run out of ICUs? I am reading stories of anyone over 60 being refused a bed in Italy.

      2) Of the people that are younger than 65, how many are:
      a) “mild” vs
      b) how many are needing a hospital bed Vs
      c) how many are getting seriously ill?
      I am told there is difference between needing a hospital bed, Vs needing an ICU bed – not all the same.

      3) Warning: This is half a rant – The powers to be keep saying “children are not known to be major contributors to the transmission” blabla so keep schools open. BUT this is exactly the opposite of the lived in experience of EVERY PARENT out there. My toddler brings every little virus in from daycare and it’s one big pool of virus there.. How on earth are we supposed to believe that kids don’t play a role in transmission of THIS virus? Is it true and why hasn’t anyone actually done some digging on kids here??? They keep saying “doesnt affect kids”. Yeah great. But then my kid always gives it to me and then I get horribly sick.

      4) Who’s looking after our kids if we are both sick and at the hospital and grandparents not allowed near them and noone wants to catch a virus? Just general ef-fen question!?

      5) There are two types of pneumonia, bacterial and viral. Which one is this and does taking a bacterial pneumonia shot help?

      6) Flu shot – I know it helps, but I swear I get sickest the year I take a flu shot. Am I just becoming sick from taking the flu shot this year just in time for the wuflu to also hit?

      7) What are tips for how to nurse a pneumonia at home if the hospitals are massively run over? I have read something about pneumonia physio…

      I will think of more I am sure.

  13. so did those 24 Irish medical staff left Australia already? Thought someone said they resigned from Perth to go back to Ireland to help with fighting vovid19.

    • Im waiting to see how bad the crime spike will be. Wonder if we’ll get to looting stage?

      • I called it few days ago. I think we will. Too many with no savings at all that are now unemployed.

      • I can’t see it. The NSW riot squad on high alert. Army Reserves are being called up. We will have something resembling martial law with zero tolerance.

        • https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/australian-army-reservists-asked-to-prepare-for-coronavirus-battle-c-762398

          The Australian Defence Force is now gearing up in what could be a sign that even tougher restrictions are on the way.

          An order has gone out to thousands of Army Reservists, warning them to prepare to be mobilised in the battle against coronavirus.

          7NEWS understands this could mean anything from enforcing quarantine orders, to delivering vital goods to people in the event of a lockdown.

          A message was sent to Army Reservists nationwide, even battalions that were not called up during the bushfires.

          Members are being asked to indicate their availability now, but emergency services and health workers are excluded from this call-out.

          Strengthen numbers
          It is understood the Australian Army is keen to bolster their numbers with those who may now be unemployed.

          Our military force is 30,000 strong with another 13,000 Reserves.

          Armed forces are being used around the world to help health officials with lockdowns and public order including in the UK, US and Italy.

  14. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Today’s number is pretty good again. We have 3167 infected, an increase of 357, representing a 12.7% increase. With Tasmania and NT it will be around 13%. 5 days ago we are around 25% per day, so our rate of increase has halved with the lockdown. However, it will only take one super-spreader to undo everything, like this couple.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/jetsetting-couple-who-caught-coronavirus-during-a-luxury-skiing-holiday-to-the-us-say-they-are-victims-of-a-hate-campaign-after-they-allegedly-ignored-isolation-rules/ar-BB11I600?li=AAgfYrC

    The step to quarantine people coming back from overseas is an important step, because self isolation is not a policy : it’s mere wishful thinking.

      • Wrong side of the peninsula (thank god). Do you honestly think I could put up with the [email protected] from Portsea? I’d be locked up for snarky eye rolls (something I do at work for some of the Melbourne crowd). I’m on the sensible and normal Westernport Bay side of the peninsula

    • The forced quarantine should have been in place 8 weeks ago. Along with the borders slammed shut 8 weeks ago. First I blame the China. Second I blame the scumo. Weak a** greedy science denying retarded morons.

    • if only happens to all our politicians who acted negligent and are incompetent.. yes, I know the parliament will be empty, but is that a bad thing?

    • This is why I’m annoyed, everyone is gonna get money except me lol. I want my UBI dammit.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Make sure you get a mortgage holiday and stop paying any interest until the dollar drops even more then sell the shares and clear the mortgage, not advice, and if they track ya down I never existed ok

        I was late paying a tax bill recently, it was under the passenger seat of the car fuk, anyway accountant told me I wouldn’t get any late fee, they’re waiving all that shyt, in fact they’re in such a sh!tstorm they’re not chasing sh!t

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Really? Paid my last one on Monday. Could be on BBOZ instead of bailing out barristers.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Yeah the tax stuff is directly from the accountant, not my half arsed brain 🧠

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Seriously not interest suspended, so the amount owed goes up ?

            This is why you don’t take anything I post seriously 🤪

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Now that is too fcukin funny …….can’t those learned gentlemen find someone to sue …and earn a crust from it ……imminent collapse appears to be here .

    • And why exactly can’t they get into the centrelink line like everyone else, single file, 1.5mtr apart?

  15. This is deadly: 1000 auctions pulled as floor falls out of market

    https://www.afr.com/property/residential/this-is-deadly-1000-auctions-pulled-as-floor-falls-out-of-market-20200326-p54e57

    More than 1000 residential property auctions planned for Sydney and Melbourne have been pulled at the last moment by sellers worried COVID-19 bans will keep potential buyers at home.

    Only 218 auctions of a scheduled 1372 are going ahead in Melbourne on Saturday with more than 800 passed in or gone to private treaty, 228 sold before going under the gavel, and 43 rescheduled, said SQM Property, which monitors property markets.

    In Sydney, 290 of a scheduled 1009 properties are going to auction, with more than 400 passed in or gone to private treaty, about 240 sold prior and 56 withdrawn. Smaller state capitals are posting similar numbers.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Ladies and gentlemen….I have a late and surprise bid from the batbug …….thank you sir…thank you ……..any one want to better it I’ll take bids in $1000s

    • haroldusMEMBER

      That’s OK, they can just go to auction next week.
      .
      .
      .
      .
      ahahahahahahahahahaalolollollllo1llo!11!L!oL!

  16. social distancing my rs. for about 30min kids from the neighborhood playing together and moms chatting not even 1/2m from each other. we are so fckd.

  17. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I love how you retarded commies continually bag Prime Minister Scott Morrison yet our rate of infection is one of the lowest in the world. He’s actually doing a ace job while youse pr1cks will always be poor and homeless. LOLOLOL

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Yes, that has been the cause of much schadenfreude hilarity amongst the shutins.

      Yours truly included.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Oh Jebus yes, hope this cancer dies.

        Been checking RE up the NSW south coast. There’s a lot come onto the market. Still hail mary prices though. Give it a month or so and I might just email a few agents and tell them there’s a cash buyer on the prowl but the prices will have to come down considerably.

  18. TailorTrashMEMBER

    In my local supermarket this avo . Among all the usual stripped shelves ( pasta rice toilet rolls and eggs ) I notice the feminine health shelf bare .
    Are these all imported too ?….In a country of 12 million
    odd women surely we could make our own

    After this Sh1t is over I’d propose a minister for industrial re establishment……a few dollars send this way might be better than all the handouts to buy imported stuff
    Yeh but no but …..

  19. CanuckDownUnder

    I received an email from Rabobank, I assumed it was the usual Friday arvo passing on the full rate cut to their savings accounts but no, they aren’t cutting any savings rates and actually increasing a bunch of their TD rates.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Got one from ME Bank saying the bonus interest for tapping your card will be automatic while we’re shut in. Also not dropping rates in line with the last RBA decision.

      Looks like they’re desperate to retain what they’ve got.

      • Same. Might have something to do with people like me shifting close to 100% of my money out of ME Bank and into government bonds. I like the reassurance that deposits guaranteed by FCS.

        Having said that, ME Bank owned by Industry Super funds who will probably inject a heap of money into it to keep it afloat.

      • Same here. Perhaps they’re sniffing the wind and smelling a run! I’m only hoarding a little cash lest there be some temporary “interruptions to service”.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Wouldn’t mind betting there’s a trend across all the banks of strategic withdrawals of just in case cash.

    • looks like they got the message as people started to pull money out and buying physical gold.

      • That’s what I’ve done. I noticed yesterday the wait time on the phone to Perth Mint was longer than normal and they weren’t as chatty as usual. When I liquidated one of my house deposit term deposits last wk at my used to be credit union but now bank the chatty customer service person said in response to my info that I was plonking it in gold for a while as a safe haven “oh yes we’re getting lots off people taking savings out to buy bank shares because they were cheap now” (pretty sure she mentioned WestPac. I face palmed silently

    • mueh! Ok…
      My banks had this:
      One bank -Term Deposit (AUD) special offer of 1.7% p.a.:
      We’re introducing a special 12-month personal AUD Term Deposit rate of 1.70% p.a. which will be available to both new and existing eligible customers from Monday 30th March.
      Is that a good rate now?

      • if inflation doesn’t jump above that perhaps yes – Considering many bonds have negative rates. My gut feeling is we will see high inflation as Govs will be forced to introduce more helicopter money. Trump is dreaming if he thinks US will open in 2 weeks. Even today’s price of fruit and vegetables is showing inflation higher than that rate.

        But If you want higher rate there is always Argentina and few African countries.

  20. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    I just want to add to the 107 comments already on here.
    In a world of “expert” investment/economic/gov/health etc people, this blog for me heading into the weekend is such a great gauge of ” what is actually going on out there?” beyond the numbers it’s actually damn crazy!

    Great to have this forum. It a privilege to have a group real time experiencing this event and giving insight into something that has literally never happened before with this level of communication.

    Respect ya’ll.

    • Yeh I know what you mean.
      My friends are thinking of doing a zoom hook up one night for a “whine and wine” sess. Lol.
      With two little ones, probably “see” my friends MORE now that they have to stay home too, than before where they could paaartaay and I am home.

  21. Here’s something to ponder…

    SmoCorona et al like to laud that we have one of the highest testing rates in the world yet it was only up to this week that we were solely testing people with an epidemiological connection to a recent arrival.

    In addition to that, they’re saying it’s “good “that 2/3 of total cases were from overseas yet yesterday in NSW, 145 of the 190 reported cases had no epidemiological backgroundin to overseas (I.e. community transmission).

    Am I missing something? How is any of this good? You shut the borders too late, now we have 3/4 of reported cases in our most populous state as a result of community spread and you still won’t lock the place down. Fkn doomed!

    • Uni census date on sunday. Expect shutdown after they have locked all the cashcows into their uni fees.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      It’s not any good. The testing rate is poor. Two weeks ago, there was around 15% of all cases being tested. That percent would be much lower, as spread becomes exponential.

  22. Ok so I asked a financial advisor (a good one who doesn’t take ANY commissions) that I was about to engage pre apocalypse – where should I put my 200k hard saved deposit that might help protect it from a bail in or similar. He didn’t seem to know what I meant? Help MB, I’m conservative, it’s in RAMS…

    • I moved most of my money into short-term government bonds. You can buy via CommSec. The only catch with these is you will cop a small capital loss (not tax deductible) vs interest which is taxed.

      The rest of my money is mainly spread across the NSW/Vic/Qld Police Bank/CU. My logic with that is they are all well capitalised (CET 1 close to 20% according to their APS 330 report), and that Police are not going to be sacked en-masse in the middle of a recession which hopefully means lower default rate.

  23. can anyone explain to me where those $2trln will appear on the US Debt watch? In which category?

        • All money is debt and all have been impermanent since time immoral – there is no absolute store of notional price that transcends time and space.

    • Fed will credit private banking accounts with deposits and concomitant reserves in the reserve banking system , on behalf of the government

      Fed will buy the associated bond issuance (possibly via banks as intermediaries) as a part of QE

      Federal reserve liabilities increase by 2 trillion (the new reserves created)
      Federal reserve assets increase by 2 trillion (the nominal value of the bonds they hold)

      Bank liabilities increase by 2 trillion (new deposits by private citizens and corporations)
      Bank assets increase by 2 trillion (reserves at the fed)

      Private assets increase by 2 trillion
      Private liabilities are unchanged

      Profit!

      If anyone can correct me that would be great

  24. So on other news…
    Malbourne is looking pretty wobbly here – https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/daily-indices
    Been RED a couple of times in the last week and a bit. -0.12 is actually quite on the high-ish side for a one day fall.. hmm.
    I know there used to be a lag in the data, I can’t remember how much. Sydney still looking OK, only one random day was a RED..

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      How does the corelogic daily register no bids? Honestly, there is not a house available in Victoria this week I would buy with my cash, because my liquidity is worth more than that ill-liquid asset.
      Simple.

      So many defaults and horrible stories “coming”
      ****Popcorn in the microwave****

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Seriously, I’ll pay your annual subs to leave this blog. I try and skip your comments but I read them by mistake and then I feel guilty about the opportunity cost of the time it took.
      Please leave- surely it’s past your bedtime.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      none of the ZH article is true. One of your fellow WuFlu truthers posted the entire 3-hour committee interview on an earlier post today. I’ve watched it all. You have to take a fox-news view of the new information to come up with the POV that ZH (and you) have come to

      • Read the new scientist link they copy pasted from then

        The real mortality rate is going to be <1% when the dust settles
        And it was never a particularly deadly infection hence the high transmission

        ICU never made much difference to survival

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      In the original article, Ferguson say the lockdown is credited with the drop in numbers, so it’ll reach the peak in 2-3 week. Then ZH added some research from no idea where saying 50% of Britian is already infected but with nothing to back it up..

  25. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Oh crap, Boris Johnson got it now. Wow it must be EVERYWHERE in UK.

    Brex chit!!!!!!!