Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

A very mixed day here in Asia with most stock markets in retreat mode after what was a stellar start to the Trading Week. The US Congress is set to pass the Senate’s stimulus package on Friday, as traders and indeed everyone watches the growing death toll and case load of COVID-19 let loose in the US, as Trump continues to fumble the handling of the pandemic. This is setting up a very big dead cat bounce for risk markets as the peak is not even reached yet in the continental US while Europe hopefully peaks soon.

The Shanghai Composite looks set to close with a scratch session currently at 2782 points while the Hang Seng Index has fallen about 0.7% or so to 23394 points, unable to keep above above its high moving average on the daily chart and hence still in swing mode only:

Japanese share markets had the steepest falls, after gaining 20% in the last couple of days, the Nikkei 225 closed 4% lower recede back below the 19000 point level. The USDJPY has broken below its ascending triangle pattern, in a very minor but still significant selloff to be at the 110.60 level going into the European session:

The ASX200 was the only market to advance, moving 2.3% higher to finish at 5113 points. Meanwhile the Aussie dollar flopped back below the 60 handle as other risk assets including commodities failed to gain traction overnight with momentum still positive on the four hourly chart but only jsut:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are falling following the mixed Asian session, with the four hourly S&P futures chart showing the start of a rollover as it failed to get back above the 2500 point level:

The economic calendar includes the latest BOE meeting, but more important will be the initial jobless claims from the US and the latest caseload and death toll overnight, particularly in NY.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. migtronixMEMBER

    New normal is now just normal.

    Good news bad, bad news good – in Soviet Straya, economy plan you!

    • Are you suggesting the Market does not distribute goods and services in an efficient manner – ?????? …. gasp …. another free market fairy dies …

        • Quantifying helps baby … open ended rhetorical gestures allow the pro claimant lots of wriggle room and as always the Trump-esque ploy of saying “you knew that” in repose …

          Bit like a leading statement or question by someone using cold reading, sets up the issuer as having some special powers of “deduction”.

    • this been posted second time today. First time I typed and wiped as I did not want to trigger responses but fck it.
      This is my view.
      If they did not break any law then people should direct their anger at our Gov who allows this and I will expand on this point. But before I go there here is the simple answer if these chunts broke any Australian law – fkcn kick them out – but not before freezing their funds and taking them as compensation. If not enough money in their accounts then take the chunts as hostages unitl China sends back same volume supplies or monetary compensation.

      Now to the point if these guys did not break any law.
      Why our Gov did not issue any ban on exporting any critical medical supplies and products OS and ban bulk buying when we faced such a threat. I am 100000000000000000% sure intel agencies would have and already know CSIRO warned our Gov of the threat.
      Why our Gov hasn’t done what India did – ban any export of critical drugs and supplies until strategic reserves are built to fight the virus???

      Stop blaming Chinese for putting Chinese people’s interests before ours.

      This is not directed at you personally Gone Baby but to all people that think Chinese should care about us.

      Baby formula issue has been going on for years, purchases of existing properties NEVER STOPPED. Where is the outrage on our politicians?

      And to be clear, I am as mad as everyone else with what happened but I refuse to blame Chinese if they did not break any law.

      • I hear you Nikola, I shared it coz the news outlets want people to be surprised/ angry of such behavior but here in MB we all saw that coming and happening and warned people around us of it..our useless governments and port authority must have known of that yet no action..hence my synic comment right after the link. 👍

      • +1
        And the PM says hoarding TP is unAustralian.. what is so Australian about inviting the Chinese in to freely deplete the resources we will need not long after to save Australian lives?

          • I think the point is, if there is no law against it, don’t blame the ones that took advantage of it. If it’s such a problem then why not stop it before it happens by – yes – making laws about depleting life saving resources.. it’s all too much work, political correctness. Meanwhile you’ve sold your citizens for it.

          • In situations like these, yes we do. How many will get infected because they don’t have gloves to use to fill up their cars with petrol.
            No bulk buying of certain products and you list those.
            Heavy penalties for any retailer caught selling more than certain volume to an individual.
            Heavy penalties for any individual caught doing it.
            If any corporation caught smuggling such goods will be banned from operating on Australia. Plus heavy penalties.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          If only one of our journalist had the balls to pop that one on his chin at a press conference.

      • Not a lawyer but reckon there was no legislation enacted to restrict the purchase or export of these items. At best we had those two blithering fvckwits ScoVid and DuttFvck appear on tv and bang on about being tough on whatever with no tangible actions.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Tangible actions require Funding and go against, Small Government/market does it better, ideology.

          Every failure is a product of underfunding or no funding at all.

          Thats why im now watching Gladies on the TV saying State and federal government’s are only now confirming a unified policy on these coronavirus Crusie Ships.
          What she means yo say is they are only now orking out who fking pays to sort out this shyte storm.
          If your going to round up and quarantine 3000 people walking of a cruise ship who pays for and supervises the carrying out of the task?
          Who pays to feed them, where are they taken?
          Who dies the security?
          And most importantly of all who cops the kick in their budgets guts?
          This is the reason the Army took so long to be called in during the bushfires.
          The State Government must officially request military assistance from the federal Government AND then gets billed by the feds for the service!

          I think one of the major problems with our 25 million person Democracy is the way State governments are responsible for essential service delivery but the Federal Government has Monetary sovereignty.

      • The biggest problem of this is we keep importing these people that have absolutely no allegiance to this country and are basically coming here to enjoy the infrastructure built up over 200 years and couldn’t give a flying fck about anything but their own self and of course care more for the sh!thole they came from than their new adopted country. Send the chunts back. Fvck em.

        • Get rid of the bullsh!t dual citizenship and permanent residents. You are either an Aus citizen or you’re not. You’re either with us or against us. Citizenship should be stripped when you’ve acted contrary to the interest of the country.

      • The Daigou now control our politics – ala Gladys and some NSW seats.
        It is a sad reflection on Oz, or China, that newly arrived economic refugees can make a business out of buying at retail and sending Oz goods back to China at some sort of markup plus freight.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        You can double your money buying mask/gloves/hand sanitizer in Australia and then sell it in China back in January and February. Now it’s the reverse : you can make 10x your money importing mask from China and then sell it in OZ. The bottleneck now is the lack of freight space.

        The Chinese government knew they are in a life-and-death struggle, so they resorted to getting medical supplies in every way possible. The contrast compared to Australia is telling.

        50 million masks a year. China produces over 100 million mask a day.

      • Wouldn’t they be classed as foreign agents then, if they are in Australia but are putting the interests of China ahead of ours.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      In some places in the world the people would now rampage and burn down their offices and under construction star building. Not here. We just accept being [email protected]! Maybe we asked for it.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        And in some countries common decency, a level of respect (yes even here) is assumed.

      • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

        Foreign companies have been pillaging and raping our mining/gas/Ag commodities and shipping them offshore for decades now but narry a peep ?.

      • Jan and Feb, then were do our restock of supplies come from ?
        Yep, the Motherland 🙂
        Oops never arrived

        • innocent bystanderMEMBER

          if they had asked slomo for permission, which they didn’t need to do, he would have said Fine, go for it. Pleased to be of assistance cause we don’t have a problem here.
          and, all those now squealing to the press about it, why didn’t they squeal back then – cause, fckn useless.

      • Qld voters in this Saturdays local elections have been advised by the qld branch of the AMA to wear a mask, if they have one, when going to vote.
        I am amazed by the continued stupidity of voting this Saturday.

      • innocent bystanderMEMBER

        govt only just realised that stockpile they had been bragging about has disappeared back to manufacturing country.


    Unemployment claims are skyrocketing across the U.S. … Yahoo Finance

    The COVID-19 pandemic is wreaking havoc on the U.S. economy, and data released Thursday morning is expected to reflect the severe damage being done to the labor market.

    The number of Americans filing for unemployment is expected to have skyrocketed to a record-breaking 1.64 million for the week ended March 21, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. The previous record was 695,000 claims filed the week ended October 2, 1982. Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 14 jumped by 70,000 claims to 281,000 and was the largest single-week increase since the Great Recession. … VIEW & READ more via hyperlink above …

  3. The self-isolation blues.
    I’m having a quarantine party this weekend! None of you are invited.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Do you know why those are called Dad jokes? Because in the not too distant future there won’t be any Granddads around to tell ’em.

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      my brother was/is rewriting the lyrics to Desolation Row (for those that remember the melody and nasal twang of BD)

      The motions from my rectum are hanging
      Painting my undies brown
      Supermarkets are filled with wailers
      No Sorbent is in town
      Here comes the Blind Prime Minister
      Hillsong’s got him in a trance
      One hand is tied to the lump of coal,
      The other is in his pants
      And Dutton’s Force is restless, 
      They need to find a foe
      As Tharunicaa looks out tonight
      From Isolation Row

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Noice. Your brother’s got skillz. That would sound even better with the track behind it.

  4. Stephen Morris

    For those who missed it ( ):

    ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott told Perth radio station 6PR, the reason banks are capitalising interest comes down to Australia’s banking laws.

    “If we don’t charge you interest, even if we defer it, your loan becomes what they call ‘impaired’ and that means that we have to go and allocate a whole bunch more capital to support your loan.

    “If we do that, as an industry, we will not have enough capital. That wouldn’t be in anybody’s interest.”

    So they’ll just carry on capitalising the interest and pretend all this is not happening.

  5. Having an argument with property investors that they should have a buffer if a tenant cannot pay rent/property is vacant. They say they rely on rent to pay their mortgage and ongoing costs and its “unreasonable” to have a buffer, for noone could have foresaw this corona crisis. Are you serious? We should bail you out because you did not foresee the event of having your property vacant / no rent for a period (or a tenant in crisis not paying, same deal). My goodness gracious me……. it is not our problem you’re leveraged up to your eyeballs.

    They went on to attack me for living in a suburb where I cannot afford market rent (which is false). Talk about ad hominem.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Tell them to learn from the very condescending comment of Christian Porter, the federal Attorney-General and Minister for Industrial Relations, who said a while back of casual employees, that they get a higher hourly rate and should have known to put money aside for a situation such as we are now experiencing – same advice goes for Reusa’s IP specufestor mates with their over-the-top rents.

    • Thats just the cashflow issue, wait till they realise their equity has disappeared …. it’s going to be a real struggle for some to understand economic gravity.

    • Australia is going to learn so many lessons that were force fed to the American public during GFC. Repeat after me: THE ONLY ONES THAT MATTER ARE THE BANKS AND THE TOP 1%.
      Landlords, tenants, rent etc.. minor details.. fight amongst yourselves peasants.

    • Excellent point Dyllip.

      Basically No one in this country has a buffer, for anything. Maxed out at all times.

      And it’s the government’s job to fix it immediately when maxed out on all counts turns out to be a miscalculation.

    • If you went to the landlord asking for a rent reduction, he has a point, and it’s certainly a case of pot calling kettle black.
      Why don’t you have a buffer to cover this emergency? It’s not like people don’t become unemployed all the time.

  6. DingwallMEMBER

    I know the ASX200 is made up of generally laughable stocks but when Afterpay Touch is part of it you know it is worse than you thought

    • Too right, Ding. The majority are simply uninvestable, then you weed out retail. banks and anything else hit by CV-19 and there is very little left.

      How about Dominos Pizza, competing with mom and pop shops with skinny overheads, variable labour, no tax to pay and their only compliance cost is food safety. Good luck!

    • That’s the best Australia could muster in a tech boom, an unregulated junk credit scam targeted at financially illiterate masses in insecure employment already geared to their eyeballs.

      • Hey Malcolm said to innovate so they did. Not very much, but still. They had a go and for a while there they got a go. Winning Straya style

  7. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Who’s let the Prime Retard talk to other leaders tonight, hope he’s not too pathetic, I think I’m starting to get that good old Australian cringe back

  8. I have a question about monetary mechanics

    What has happened to money supply during this coronavirus lockdown

    Essentially no new loans created, no loans paid down (in any significant volume)

    QE I am unsure of the effects in Australia . If only reserves are exchanged then that doesn’t effect money supply

    So here we are in our closed system with what I assume is essentially static money supply – none has been destroyed or created relative to 2 weeks ago

    So where has it all ended up to cause this sudden shortage ?

    Not in the hands of casual workers who haven’t got any wages
    Not in the hands of their employers who don’t have any revenue

    It’s all in the hands of the landlords and bank share holders?
    Who have stopped spending or investing it because they think it will buy more (consumption or productivity dividend) later on

    So following commencement of the coronavirus the total number of dollars in the system is unchanged , it’s just more concentrated in the hands of a few

    The next step is of course debt deflation , but the banks and RBA and APRA have put a stop to that

    Now government deficits change the distribution of the money: in the hands of workers and SMEs , and from the hands of bond purchasers … but the RBA is buying the bonds . So how does QE possibly not increase the money supply?
    Private individuals who might have otherwise bought bonds will now not do so because the yield is suppressed by RBA buying
    They then retain the excess money and hoard it? Or choose to consume or to invest it in productive projects with the hope of profits from the now enriched proles

    But ultimately it does increase the money supply even before anyone takes out new loans

    Can someone explain where I have gone wrong

    • FX flows is missing.
      AUD has dumped as international investors have left the liquid markets.

      • In order to sell AUD, there has to be a buyer

        No change in the money supply, just changed hands

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Net of liabilities it increases nothing. You know this, we’ve been doing this dance for 10 f&#@^% years…

      • Who’s liabilities?
        The central banks “liabilities” in the form of reserves – they’re basically irrelevant as a liability in the true sense because the RBA creates and destroys them as it wishes (for instance when it pays positive or negative interest on them)

        The question was whether the money supply increases

        And I don’t see how it doesn’t

        But the money supply didn’t cause the financial crisis, so why would increasing it fix it

        • migtronixMEMBER

          FFS it doesn’t because it’s a function of the outstanding liabilities. There’s plenty of debt out there to soak up that in 12 years we never managed to grow our way out of. Again, you know this!

          • Please tell me where I’m going wrong

            Baseline money supply = x

            Federal government launches UBI, credits commercial bank accounts of every citizen . We will call this y

            Now money supply is x + y

            Government Offsets new spending by selling equivalent amount of bonds

            Scenario 1 : new bond issuance is purchased privately . y-y nets to 0
            Money supply = x
            Reserves are unchanged

            Scenario 2: All newly issued bonds are bought by the RBA (directly or indirectly)
            Money supply remains x+y
            Reserves have also increased by y

            How are these not very different scenarios regardless of interest rates ?

          • migtronixMEMBER

            As you know perfectly well the x is function not a scalar value and that x is diminishing with each new step/iteration. The y is going and filling that up in the absence of private sector loans. There will be more money supply than otherwise would get destroyed but if you’re still looking for inflation – keep looking…

          • How can you disregard interest rates when the interest rate determines the qty of money people want to hold?

    • Most likely broad money has increased a lot in the past month. As people have sold assets to get money. The same thing happened in the crisis stage of the GFC.

      • Sold assets to whom ?

        Sale of assets through the commercial banking system doesn’t change broad money

        • Yes it does. Businesses / households sell securities to get cash. Yields go up. At higher yields, securities become more attractive v new loans for banks, banks buy securities / sell some to CB for reserves and issue more deposits. Broad money increases. Even while new lending is collapsing.

          • “Businesses / households sell securities to get cash. Yields go up. “

            By securities you mean bonds?

            “At higher yields, securities become more attractive v new loans for banks, banks buy securities “

            Buy securities with what ? They can’t use reserves to buy securities from the private sector . Reserves stay in the reserve banking system . They can only use reserves to buy from each other or from the CB

            “sell some to CB for reserves and issue more deposits.”

            I don’t understand this part
            The banks sell bonds to the CB for reserves – how is this creating deposits in the commercial banking system ?


          • they buy the securities in exchange for deposits. it doesn’t have to be bonds.
            Some of the securities they keep, others they exchange for reserves.
            The overall effect is to increase base money and broad money.
            The last month has been textbook. people scramble for cash, yields go up. assets move to commercial banks from non-banks and others, banks issue more deposits.
            I am fairly confident when the data comes out it will show broad money expanded even while lending collapsed.

          • Yes it will show that, but because of QE

            Reserves can’t be directly exchanged for private sector assets as far as I know ?

            So you’re saying banks use deposits of private entities to buy assets from other private entities , thereby crediting their deposit accounts?

            How is that not zero sum ?

            I’ve got $100 on deposit at Nab
            Nab uses my $100 deposit to buy bonds from mig
            Deposits and reserves are unchanged

    • QE does increase the money supply because it replaces bonds that exist as assets in the private sector with cash. The holder of that cash can then choose to invest it somewhere else or sit on it. The large number of superannuants who choose to go to cash also affects the amount of money effectively in circulation.

        • Lytton Road in Brisbane, it’s a main road that links to the toll road highways so is regularly busy but it has been insane traffic day and night since Sunday, majority being family cars. Been living where I am for 2 years and never seen such sustained traffic. As I type it has finally died down so maybe folks were gearing up and then getting out of town but where to? All campsites are closed, small towns here are hostile to outsiders at the best of times and I’m sure most people don’t want extended family around during a pandemic.

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      A fail on so many counts I won’t mention them. Certainly also feeds into the conspiracy theories about this being more about ‘testing’ what people will tolerate. Ill-conceived and disastrous anyway you look at it. Now is not the time to tackle alcoholism and I’m guessing prefect Khoury isn’t aware of the significant per cent of the population who self-medicate their issues with alcohol. Hospitals, police and government services do NOT need a dramatic increase in attendances and demands at this particular point.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      In Dan Murphys this avo …..lot more customers than usual all getting what looked like a bit extra ……good stocks available ……no panic stations yet ….but Booz costs a lot more to stock up on than toilet paper …….


    I have a story.

    Had a bloke come round to our sharehouse the other day. Invited by our housemate. He was gonna do some work with him and go surf ect.

    Then story comes out: He’s just been to WUHAN. and SPAIN. And now he’s at my HOUSE. Says he was on a cycling tour through China solo, and was about to get a ferry to JAPAN and the sign said: NOCANDO because KUNGFLU. Went inland and ended up in WUHAN ie. GROUND FECKIN ZERO. Decided he wanted to leave and see his mum (in SPAIN!). Got last flight out of the WU to Madrid. Police car ride to WU airport (showed me video of the ride, massive SWAT type armored vehicles blocking an otherwise empty 5 lane freeway. Police patrols at otherwise empty airport walking single file, with dog handler at back. Boarding staff basically in full hazmat gear)…

    Gets to Madrid. Straight from airport to QUARANTINE LOCATION. Showed me video: passengers loaded up into minibus. Minibus gets full police escort (2 cars, 4 bikes – lights ON) to QUARANTINE destination. 2 weeks in hospital quarantine and TESTED (negative). Goes to visit his mum in the country somewhere. He then decides Spain is getting too hectic so he books a flight back to Sydney. Gets back the DAY AFTER they “implement” 2-week self-isolation. He then decides that as technically he isn’t required to self-isolate and that as “he feels fine”, he’s right to go.

    Gets word there is a bit of work on with my housemate (Geelong region). Drives 10 hours to get to our house…

    Upon hearing all this, and after he’s been in our house, we’ve politely told him to GTFO and dressed down the housemate for his murderously poor decision making (he needed a worker..). Not before though, this SUPERSPREADER, has the nerve to tell us “its just the Flu” (NO JOKE). Told him within a week its gonna be full lockdown, best you get back over the border, as they’re all closing, and find somewhere to settle in. You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here type vibe.

    It turns out DON QUIXIOTE was an Aussie.

    2 things to take from this: *People, even when given all the information they need, have no F-ing idea
    and, *how do we reckon Australia’s Airport security stacks up to that of CHINA and SPAIN, who, have had extremely bad KUNGFLU outbreaks??

    • Posted earlier today but Victorian police did a spot checks and found around 10% of people that were supposed to be self- quarantining either ignored the direction or gave a false address. Its almost amusing that they cannot differentiate the two. Was listed on the SMH blog.

    • Stephen Morris

      This always happens during a crisis. In times of threat the apes all go running to the Alpha Male for protection.

      • Yep 😆😆

        Hilarious and menacing at the same time: Turnbull’s Kim Jong-un moment

        Turnbull gave his press conference in front of a military vehicle and a line of machine-gun-wielding commandoes whose identities were deliberately concealed with Darth Vader-like gas masks.

  10. Property investor colleague: “no landlord has savings, that is unreasonable, no such thing as a buffer, landlords need full rent.”

    Me after a 1 second google of property investment 101:
    “Typically, it’s best to hold 2-4 months of rental income on hand as an investment property buffer. By failing to hold adequate cash buffers, investors can easily find themselves under financial pressure should they need to address urgent maintenance works or if their salary is suddenly reduced or cut off.”
    Why every property investor needs a cash buffer – Momentum Wealth

    You cannot wipe the smile of my face right now after seeing his face. Happy days. The fun has only just begun.

    • “I felt a great disturbance in the Market, as if millions of landlord sphincters suddenly puckered out in terror, and were suddenly clenched . I fear something terrible has happened.”
      ―Obi-WanK Kook-knobby senses Australian infestor destruction


      I never understood why, as renters, you’re required to provide payslips and whatnot to prove you can pay you’re rent. Meanwhile landlords don’t have to provide any financial details to prove they’d not go under during a crisis.

      • You don’t HAVE to provide those details, but they also don’t HAVE to take you on as a tenant.
        You can ask for those details from a potential landlord, but again they don’t HAVE to take you on as a tenant.
        Welcome to a power imbalance. Until there are so many vacant rental properties that many are vacant for months on end it is unlikely to change.

  11. Apparently, if you sort out the ‘from’s from the ‘with’s the death rate in Italy could be revised downward by 88% !!

    Dying with covid-19 is not the same as dying from covid-19. Covid-19 does knock you off the perch if you are close to the edge it seems.

    Certainly not worth the massive economic pain caused thus far. Certainly any newly acquired police-state laws should be rescinded immediately and those responsible for passing them need to be financially disembowelled.

  12. Gotta love the libertarian minded going @peshit … one moment its get the Government out of my life so I can climb the greasy pole of wealth and the next minute some single cell mindless virus might steal [tm] their freedom exhibit primate behavior with tree branch displays and gnashing of teeth …. absurdly delirious …

  13. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Ok. I’m calling it. This is a conspiracy to take away our freedoms. I’m hoping American patriots and militia soon wake up to this and start fighting back. Here, we’ll just take it up the ….

  14. Rorke's DriftMEMBER

    Friend of a friend story. Would occassionally see her at the races, early 40s, glamed up excessively, nipped and tucked, I thought her personality shallow and a bit up herself but known to be cashed up and doing well. I disrepected her when I found out she had a small recruitment business, bringing Indian (I assume IT) workers into Australia. Complete traitor leveraging Australias natural and economic assets for commission.

    Caught up on the gossip today. She always rented and like so many struggled to establish a permanent home for herself as a single woman. Could never afford to buy in Sydney, but after her best commission month ever in February she managed to buy an expensive townhouse in Brisbane. Her business has just collapsed to zero, right after settlement, has realised she’s massively overpaid at the top of the market, crying to friends she had previously talked down to and very distressed.

    I actually feel sorry for her. A product of the system, forced to move state and become a debt slave just for a home, led down a traitorous but ultimately fragile business path to get ahead, even ending up single is a product of decades of social engineering. Just sad and I expect all to common. We lost our way.

    • ApproachingZero

      Don’t feel sorry. The unsustainable mass importation of “skilled” workers has driven house prices up. She is the product of her own making.

      • You’re right, but this is the society and people that have been created by those who want to manipulate opinion. In a functioning society that values the rights of workers, limits the reach of those with vast capital, and encourages the community rather than the self, this woman would never have existed.

      • Absolutely zero f*cks given from me. I have no time for people who have contributed to the destruction of our IT industry. I deal with these imported muppets every day and I am so over it.

    • I feel sorry for her, sure she’s got an obnoxious personality (probably close to the Real Estate agents I’ve dealt with), but I guess this is an important lesson. She won’t forget it quickly.

  15. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Total number of cases reached 2800 today. After the horrid increase last week, the rate of increase has gone from 25% a day to 15% a day, so our day to double have went from 3 days to 5 days. The lockout is working. If we didn’t let that Ruby Princess dock we would be 10% by now. So ScoMo may have stopped the refugee boats, but he didn’t stop the cruise ship when it really mattered. If the number continues to decline Australia will peak out less than 10k, meaning we will escaped the ‘mass death’ event caused by lack of ICU beds. If it’s under control before winter, we won’t get a ‘second spike’ in June to September as well. The credit goes to the various State government, while the Federal government is busy making everyone unemployed so they can be infected while queuing outside Centerlink.

    I am now seeing non-Chinese wearing face masks on the street, especially Indians. The 21 day lockdown in India got through to them far better than ScoMo’s “non-essential essential’ speech.

    The number from the US is still scary, however it’s still early days. We will know in a week whether the virus will become a world changing event.

    • The main area producing positive tests in Sydney was Northern Sydney District (refer NSW Health maps of positive cases) which changed its testing criteria from ‘all comers who have respiratory symptoms’ to strictly by the book recently due to testing kit shortage. The virus is still spreading and sadly the slight dip in growth rate last 24 hours isn’t significant. Testing has been widened again so the rate with go up as more kits available but 3-4 days lag (still) to get results and 1 more day to get stats reported. The social distancing thing has traction with some people (i.e. those into climate change etc and those who have a positive result) but not others. The number of ‘New Australians’ coughing in supermarkets and on trains and congregating in extended groups on footpaths for hours at dusk (as they do – and this is prime ‘Ind##n Granny Death Stare’ time for those who are interested) is appalling. Social distancing is not part of their culture.

      I would love to have some hope, but there is little.

      If we don’t have a deluge on the hospitals by April 15, we’ll know that we have dodged a bullet.

      Also, India is barely testing and its reported numbers absolutely cannot be trusted. Its reported rate of spread given its population density is not credible.

    • QLDers seem to be locking themselves down despite Scummo, so maybe that is helping. No idea whats happening elsewhere…..

    • Yes Ronin, I noticed the numbers down a bit today and yesterday.
      I was estimating 4000 tomorrow, a 3 day double from Tuesday.
      We 3 day doubled from Saturday (1041) to Tuesday (2146)
      4000 would require an average of around 700 a day of new cases per day after Tuesday, we only got 290 Wednesday and 375 (edit) today.
      I usually wait until evening to get the daily figure.
      Fingers crossed it is the start of a longer doubling time, 3 to 4 then 4 to 5 etc etc

    • I’ve seen a bunch of people walking around my hospital with masks one..One was an elderly couple wearing surgical masks (good if YOU have symptoms and wanting to protect others), but they were inside out. Also lots of visitors wearing obvious 3M N95 disposable masks, but then taking them off when they sit with their family member. The shits aerosolised for a while.

      New patient visitor limits – two in 24hrs with significant time limits.

  16. Can’t make this sh1t up; from the Guardian blog:

    Michelle Landry, the LNP member for Capricornia in far north Queensland, and Queensland senator Matt Canavan have written to Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk to request her “urgent consideration for shutting north Queensland’s borders”.

    It is worth noting that as it is not an independent jurisdiction, north Queensland does not have borders.

    There’s that name associated with sh1tfvckery, Matt Wankervan.

  17. Anecdata from Western Sydney: the last threads of the lie of harmonious multicultural vibrancy torn to shreds. So say I after being on the receiving end of increasingly hostile stares / glares from ‘New Australian’ males and females when venturing into the supermarket for the last 3 trips, as if to say ‘we do not want your kind shopping in here competing for the limited supplies’. Quite noticeable, since pre COVID their usual pattern was basically to ignore you and never make eye contact.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      Your “Fk off we’re full” and goose-stepping down there aisles may be getting them on edge.

      • Never bothered them before. At least I am getting my own medicine now eh?

        Tolerance, the oldest one way street in the world.

  18. I remember the Good times when all we worried about was plastic bags, Im tearing up thinking about those heady days..

  19. From Facebook:
    Me: Corona virus or otherwise, government shouldn’t bail out property investors who do not have a buffer or made a poor investment choice in a recession.
    Guy, “Im just a small time mum and dad investor”: scientists also state that climate change is real and the corona virus is pay back from mistreating the earth but then again Harry potter hard magical powers moral of my rent donr believe everything you read or see on tv

    There’s the intelligence level of your average investor fellas and maams.

    • I don’t understand. Agents keep telling us property continues to boom and buyers are “rushing” to secure a house in these troubling times. Why do they need to be bailed out when they can still sell and make a massive profit? Please explain.

  20. Canberra supermarket report today. Coles, 4pm.

    All items in stock except toilet paper, hand wash, disinfectant wipes. And eggs.

    Big bags of rice in stock. Some pasta. Baked beans in ham sauce. Mince etc. All good.

    Pretty crowded. Fairly perfunctory social distancing going on. Checkout staff not wearing gloves or anything. (Do I need to disinfect my groceries now?)

    Only about three chunts wearing masks (one was me).

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      To answer your first question, I’ve heard you have to throughly scrub your nuts.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Gerard’s Herbal, printed in 1621, quotes the English botanist John Goodyer on Jerusalem artichokes

            which way soever they be dressed and eaten, they stir and cause a filthy loathsome stinking wind within the body, thereby causing the belly to be pained and tormented, and are a meat more fit for swine than men.

            Sounds about right for our Harry.

    • For the past two weeks whenever Mum, Dad or I have gone out we have worn masks. We are the only people to have done so. That includes all of us going to the Drs separately to get the flu shot (with each of going for a speccie supermarket stock up, where we couldn’t buy eggs or flour or anything we wanted either at all or at a reasonable price). Mum went to see a cardiologist today, so was in a private hospital on the Mornington Peninsula. No one was wearing a mask. She has to go back tomorrow to drop off her heart monitor and really does not want to.

    • Today was a lot more meat and veg products, for some reason all the dips were gone and I haven’t found TP for 3-4 weeks now. But yes a lot better apart from the TP shortage. North East Melbourne (Ringwood area).

  21. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    LOL from smage
    “A woman in Lake Macquarie and the staff at a Sydney massage parlour have become the first people issued with fines under new public health laws designed to help stop the spread of COVID-19.”

    • Hmm, yeah, DXY is taking a dip…bugger…

      I’m thinking I should have sold some more USD and picked up some more gold and Euro…I guess there’s always tomorrow?

      • my new strategy is to wait for mine outages. Only couple to release announcements saying they had to shut operations due to infections all will go down.
        That is what’s been keeping me awake at night so gave up today and sold most. But seeing gold on the move I think I should have hold NCM. I think gold will be going up and up and up. There is no more large falls for gold from here. Infinity printing started and there is no way of stopping it until someone resets the system.
        All commodities will be going up from now but gold will really shine. I doubt CBs and Govs will be able to control inflation and they will get it in big way.

        • Only one thing to beware of. Could be another rush of asset liquidation / flight to USD when the second wave of the panic hits (the wave triggered by the realisation that printing money doesn’t stop the virus). I reckon it’s still to come.

          • I tend to agree, the acceleration in the news cycle has slowed which has allowed some of the responses to catch up. But the underlying issue hasn’t been solved, the second order issues are still yet to come.

  22. I cant help but think this corona virus pandemic was an opportunity for US business to cut staff above and beyond what was necessary. Not for a second do I believe unemployment will ever again fall down to these levels. There will be a lot of ‘automation’ substitution going on.

    It is the beginning of a great depression that will make the last one look like a Sunday brunch with the Queen.

    The same goes for Straya.

    End times.