Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A sea of green across Asian stock markets today following the surge on Wall Street last night as markets mistake the absence of selling as the absence of a bear market. Gold remained above the $1600USD per ounce level while other undollar currencies advanced against USD as Congress finally passed a fiscal rescue package.

The Shanghai Composite looks set to close 2% higher at 2783 points while the Hang Seng Index has surges another 3% higher, now at 23362 points, but yet to break above its high moving average on the daily chart and hence still in swing mode only:

Japanese share markets are the best in the region in the wake of more internal stimulus, the Nikkei 225 closing over 8% higher for a near 20% gain already this week, now well over the 19000 point level. The USDJPY remains in a mild climbing phase, now reaching above the 111 handle, but still unable to beat the previous Friday highs just yet:

The ASX200 had another solid session, gapping higher on the open before again selling off during the day, then again surging at the close to finish 5.5% higher and only one point shy of the 5000 point level. Everything is awesome! Meanwhile the Aussie dollar pushed higher with a break above the 60 handle this time and looking on track to get back to the pre breakdown high at the 63 level with momentum on its side on the four hourly chart:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are gaining following the solid Asian session, with the four hourly S&P futures chart showing a desire to get back above the 2500 point level:

The economic calendar includes US durable goods and the UK CPI print but these backward looking data points remain irrelevant for the time being, with everyone watching the virus cases/death totals, particularly the pollies who don’t like the optics of people dying on their watch or people not going to their clubs and hotels.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. Services Australia (Centrelink) phone line still to busy to speak to an operator, meaning that I (and thousands others) can’t get a CRN to even try to make a claim through MyGov.

    • So everything is working as planned. Offer a service, make it hard to use, claim no one is using it.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      ….end result hunger = danger ……….we might still see martial law before this is out ………

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I wrote the below on the (executive) public service pay freeze thread. But your issues run to the core of what I wrote too……

      In any public service function – but profoundly noticeable in any area where there is no functional or technical skills requirement – many of the Executive and the vast bulk of the Senior Executive levels are chock full of scheming psychopaths who couldnt give a rats toss for either the public or the clients they serve, or the subordinate staff undertaking the functions, and are solely motivated by their own personal gain (be it prestige or money). In nearly all public services (Commonwealth and State) a large number are quite aged and looking for the next pay increase for a defined benefit super payout, with the majority in many organisations actually being older women (who have inherited the former mainly male psychopath manager role with an additional sense of entitlement to add to the mix).

      The all too common result is a clique of people who are glib and not believed by the end customers or their subordinate staffs, who do nothing but exhort meaningless jargon and visit meaningless courses and ‘service’ requirements on the people actually doing the job. The proliferation of these over the course of a generation has resulted inter alia in:-

      1. Information technology systems and databases – not to mention email – which fall over the moment there is any sort of demand within departments & public facing systems which also fall over the moment there is any sort of demand volume – think the failure of the last census, think of MyGov, think of filing tax returns

      2. Entire systems which are all too often deliberately designed to deter usage by making the application process confusing, making contact for information about the process difficult to access, and having any scope to actually talk to a person who knows something about that process almost impossible – invariably pushing people to wade through a web interface or spend hours waiting online to chat with someone (invariably ‘recorded for coaching purposes’ and all too often script based nonsense delivered by some poor kid in a call centre which doesnt address the circumstances of the individual)

      3. Entire systems designed primarily to support the accumulation of meaningless stats for the Executive levels to report on – usually to Ministers offices but sometimes to parliaments – as well as entire systems which have outsourced providers embedded into the system – and IT would be the classic case study here – when these are driven primarily by the need to maximise revenues and maximise the bang for buck they get out of their staff – which invariably drives a succession of meaningless ‘logged jobs’ and ‘escalations’ or ‘Second level enquiries’

      4. A plethora of ‘faux’ systems, or systems which control nothing but simply need to be there for public perception purposes, but all insiders know don’t ‘really’ exist The FIRB approval process, the audit of pension claimants (as opposed to social welfare claimants), the examination of ‘contractors’ expenses as opposed to PAYE claimants

      5. The contracting out of functions and services, all too often without any real examination of costs and efficiencies but rather a focus on getting something ‘off the books’ and all too often embedding a private sector funds extraction mechanism on a public service, which ends up costing taxpayers vastly more over the longer term.

      The current coronavirus outbreak is currently seeing low level APS staff handle massive numbers of public coming in to apply for support, on systems which have been deliberately cultivated to force people online as much as possible, or have been deliberately made difficult in order to deter access – and therefor understandably infuriating for shop assistants and tradespeople, and those losing their jobs suddenly, and looking for support. They are often doing this in circumstances where there is little to no scope to maintain any social distance virus prevention would mandate, forcing them to take risks with their own health in the public interest – on behalf of a government which invariably bullshits about how ‘efficient’ the public service is (or isnt).

      Right at the moment these psychopaths who almost always would now be working from home are directing staff to remain at work as ‘essential’ and rejecting leave applications needed to deal with children as schools close, fudging working hours and flexitime arrangements, while ignoring cleaning and social distancing needs in workplaces – exhorting ‘Business as Usual’ for the workplaces they control.

      Those downmarket public service types will be no doubt anticipating that their prospects of any pay increase are frozen too.

      We do need to distinguish between the punter behind the counter at Medicare or Tax or on Defence bases, from the complete nutters who decide on the circumstances in which they are there, and the systems by which they are supposed to do what they do, and will invariably be ‘performance managing’ the outcomes of whatever it is they do with some of the most ‘values driven’ behavioural nonsense known to mankind.

      ……I actually think ‘service delivery’ as a concept as it has been known to the public and public servants for a generation is currently lining up with those unemployment applicants, and that the whole notion of ‘customer self service’ from a ‘menu’ went to the beach at Bondi last week.

      Earlier this year I went to a beanfest in Canberra – as one of those who took the last generation of public service psychopaths out behind the shelter shed, for being ‘closed minded’ leading organisations which were seen as ‘stovepiped’ and helped to introduce a more ‘behaviours driven’ public service model (I happen to think it was a failure that has only embedded a ‘cult of personality’ often revolving around old white women who have a sense of entitlement to go with the lack of technical – let alone numerical, reasoning and writing abilities – skills their predecessors generally did have).

      At that function an esteemed former Secretary of one of the Big 3 APS Agencies, referring to the contemporary public service dynamic, noted the following which for the first time in ages I found myself thinking ‘He has nailed it’

      “…all too often contemporary public service provision, and even policy advice is framed within a political narrative which invariably tries to send Australians who want support, advice, or even to report an issue which they believe regulators should be aware of, ‘somewhere else’.

      It is about making Australians smaller and their expectations of government smaller. Encapsulated within that ‘smaller’ is smaller accountability, smaller visibility of who is getting what and why they are getting it, and smaller certainty that public programs are actually serving the Australian public.

      Also within that ‘smaller’ is smaller margin for error, smaller preparation for contingency, smaller consideration of whether any policy is for the public good or not, and smaller scope for redress or review where Australians face negative consequences from policy outcomes.”

      Ultimately smaller has limitations and it is time to start thinking better – if not bigger – in terms of public service and policy outcomes for Australians.

      ….and its time to dirk a few executive psychopaths (and maybe get a fresh batch in)…

      • God that’s depressing but 100% accurate depiction of corporate management culture. We are all f***ed

        • No skip, it’s worse than that. I doubt any of these scrotes have MBAs — they are way more ordinary than that. These organisations have become bloated and disfunctional, as bureaucracies have a tendency to do. The public sector has 3 distinct parts: the political wing, the vast bureaucracy under them (the Admin department) and frontline troops (teachers, nurses, firies, police, ambos, defence force etc).

          The Admin department (if not the executive branch) is a farcking abomination, and if I recall correctly, during my stint in the UK, when public sector cutbacks occurred it was always frontline troops which copped it. Utterly disgraceful. As a taxpayer that BS cuts me deep. The Admin segment could be cut by 2/3rds to no discernible negative impact. Most of those jobs are little more than welfare – much of it expensive.

          • Well aware and read on the theories which came to dominate administration in public and private sectors going back to the 80s Dominic. I started in C-corps during the transition at that time and I must say added and abetted by computational power. So when some past and present talk about government bloat it sets of a mad case of giggles, when C-corps is manifold, oh and lest we forget Military power point presentations that make being trapped for a week on the Disney ‘its a small world’ ride seem like heaven.

        • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

          I think the attacks on MBA’s started no so long ago because of a lack of ability to articulate other more appropriate targets. It’s an easy three letter throw away word. Having achieved an MBA, I continually observe in Australian workplaces the dearth of management skill from multiple causes, including from a lack of study of management. Having actually studied the problem of management to a high and intensive level, its frustrates me hearing this dumb “MBA blaming” by people who simply wouldn’t know. It’s obvious from your posts Skippy that you’ve had your head too far up your academic economics studies with little practical application that I doubt you’ve ever managed teams of people to achieve a difficult goal.

          • Read above Rorke, got decades on you and in multiple industries with international experience. I would add with the crapification of education due to profit incentives and narrow degree mill attributes the problem is compounded.

            I and my wife have watched as standards were lowered to meet both market demand for “product’ and to facilitate investor demand on Universities. The results are evident in the market IMO.

          • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

            Yes I agree with general crapification. Just standing up for the study of management being productive.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            Back in the 1940’s and 50’s managers of manfacturing and Industrial enterprises came up from the shop floor, starting as apprentices and moving through variuos departments. The Brightest were earmarked for senior management, regardless of social station.
            When such a worker was promoted to the managment level s/he had a thourough working knowledge of the business.
            Around the late 50’s the MBA was seen by some owners as a ticket for their offspring to short circuit the old system and so hese young MBAers were put into senior management, but without the knowledge of the previous generations of mangers.
            The result is there for all to see. Boeing, GMH for example.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Somebody said a few years ago the MBA schools have a lot to answer for …..indeed they do……….Curtin and Chiefly would have been consigned to middle manager roles today ……..and probably “managed out “ before they found their true potential ….

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          “profoundly noticeable in any area where there is no functional or technical skills requirement”

          Health has very high technical and functional requirements so Gunna wasn’t really saying what he was about State health

      • Paddy Finucane

        Gunna that rant should be a thread on its own.

        I’m APS in Melbourne and you have pretty much nailed my (25+ years) experience. The IT and the psychopaths! You should work in the zillions spent on surveying staff to work out why they dont like or trust their bosses, and to gee them up with some mindfulness, Blue Bus or PEP – big juicy contracts for consulting firms, those.

      • People are going to starve before they get any money from Centrelink.
        Charities are going to be swamped.
        All while everyone, eventually,will have to be at home.
        I reckon that is one of the main reasons we aren’t at Level 3 stay at home/lock-down already, which we should be.

        • Correct. Which is why, a month ago, I said send cheques to all households (as a starter). They either don’t understand the gravity of this crisis or they don’t understand how to deal with a crisis of this magnitude and nature. Scummo and his cohorts (collectively) have the intellect of a fcking rock and are out of their depth.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            One of the things I would be looking at right now is simply coming out with.

            Every person in Australia is going to be locked down for the next 15 weeks (I reckon it will take that long).
            Every person in Australia can do a 12 week course (online) – set out a menu of options, tell everyone they can take a week to decide. Make it vocational. Government pays.

            Keep people busy, get them positioning for the other side of the shutdown. Something they can sit at home with families (etc) and do.

            It should be mandatory for every last public sector employee (I reckon they will be stood down within days/weeks) to continue getting their pay.

          • Completely agree Gunna. We had a decent chance (esp. being an island) to contain this and literally fiddled while the world around us burned. History won’t be kind to those in charge.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        My experience with corporate sector non-technical companies is similar. Swap the women for men is all you have to do. Most of the competent technical people have been exorcised. Somehow the monopolies survive despite themselves.

    • Once the threshold to claim is: ‘having a pulse’, I’m piling on too, so make sure you get through sooner rather than later. If the myGov site isn’t coping now, then dog forbid, we’ll all die of hunger, Ermo’s stash of 1,300 cans of baked beans in ham sauce notwithstanding. I’m sure though, being the compassionate fellow he is, he’ll make a couple of tins available to all MB members in need 😉 (postage not included).

    • I managed to login to MyGov via my Mobile (try it on Mobile) and there is a prompt to sign up for Corona’s I did it. They say they will contact you. But I don’t think I qualify because my wife is working. No free money for me.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        Hi Gavin
        just wondering if you could help me in relation to foreign currency transfers back to oz
        i know you guys discuss it from time to time but I don’t take much notice (sorry story of my life)
        well my daughter is working in NZ and has a few dollars she wishes to send back to pay a credit card
        who would you recommend
        thanks in advance

        • I used CurrencyFair to move a large amount of Euro and USD back to AUD for my property settlement. It’s a peer to peer exchange platform so you generally get better rates than the banks. But it can take a few days to get it all set up.

          • China PlateMEMBER

            That’s the one
            Thank you Gavin much appreciate your help
            Stay safe and have a good weekend

    • Other departments have just disappeared! My GP couldn’t ring through for my usual painkiller approval & hasn’t been able to get through for a few days. Hasn’t been told anything & doesn’t know what’s going on with a few other area’s either, & not impressed. Cynically said to come back in a couple of days & maybe they’ll have come back from wherever they are…..(indicating it’s all fallen apart & little support already) He’s over the hypochondriacs & really not looking forward to being sneezed & coughed at.

    • 1 million Australian citizens ‘made unemployed’ in the last 2 weeks.
      Most have never claimed welfare in their lives.

      The 🇨🇳ChinaVirus🦠 – allowed in by Morrison, aided & abetted by our totally incompetent health officials, migration agents, corrupted Universities etc – the virus is now spreading like myxomatosis thru a paddock of rabbit burrows. (🇨🇳XImatosis)

      Well just wait a month or so when its couple of million Australian citizens infected and they are trying to get health care.

      When is the Australian government going to act on the TR, SCV & PR third world migrant overshoot?

      Current situation.

      4.5 million non Australian non citizens.

      4 million or 87% in just Sydney or Melbourne alone in vast fetid unassimilated migrant slums.

      You can argue all you like but facts are they are foreign born non Australian foreign nationals.
      Most (eg the Chinese and Indians) are on a sole Chinese or Indian passport.

      In order of cleansing Australia of this long standing economic, social & now bio security risk.

      🔻1.9 million third world Temporary Residents (TR) on pretext visas (835,000 foreign student / partner, 270,000 so called protection visas, 260,000 so called working holiday, 170,000 so called skilled or partners & so on) all here only to steal an Australian job.
      Most with no real health care coverage.
      Universities & schools shut down.
      Their stolen jobs or illicit income in vice & black market job theft also gone.

      These 1.9 million non Australians TR will absolutely overload our health care system.
      Foreign Nationals.
      The basis of their visa no longer exists.
      Cancel all their visas and start the forced repatriation.

      🔻Then we have another 670,000 so called ‘NZ SCV’ but 40% are non Zealand born third world unskilled Asians & Indians trafficked into Australia via NZ with the NZ passport stamp..
      Again no real health care cover.
      The non NZ born should never have been allowed into Australia in what was intended to be a program for Australian & NZ born citizens.

      🔻Then add on another 1.9 million third world unskilled migrant PR – including over a million being mostly old mainland born Chinese or Indian etc Nationals sole passport holders here as parasites on our welfare & healthcare.
      All non Australians. Non citizens.

      Why should they get Centrelink or Medicare?

      Non Australian citizens.
      Second stage clean out after the TR & NZ SCV.
      The PR Medicare & Centrelink should be downgraded (so Australia citizens are given priority) or denied.
      And the virus pandemic a good reason to cancel their PR & send them back.

      And that’s 4.5 million to be cleaned out.
      Non citizens. Foreign nationals.

      Restoring over 2.5 million jobs back to Australians.
      Restoring over 900,000 ex Australian dwellings back to Australians.
      And our hospitals, health care & social welfare capacity directed to Australian citizens in the 🇨🇳ChinaVirus🦠

  2. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Conspiracy theorist here. The Newstart payment ceased to exist from 20 March. Being replaced with a “Jobseeker Payment” which also encompasses those formerly on Sickness and other benefits. Methinks they knew what was coming and have revamped the system to hide the new jobless.

  3. The Traveling Wilbur

    So given that theverything is fix now, I really don’t need to ask this question, but just in case…

    Anyone recommend a suitable vintage to accompany work from home? Essentially just the day drinking for the next 6 months part – I have the rest sorted.

    Thanks in advance.

  4. Picking Bottom

    I think we are approaching the bottoming of ASX… maybe in April, coincide with minimum solar cycle .. as said by bcnich

        • Narapoia451MEMBER

          That’s just become a tally of money that will never be repaid. Disastrous adventures in the middle east, structural deficits delivered by successive republican administrations and president full orange retard have made sure of that. When that default happens – that will be great depression V2 for the US.

          • That could well happen as part of this crisis.

            “Slowly, then suddenly”. (for clarity the ‘slowly’ began in the 1970s)

        • Yep.

          Quoting CNBC – “ The S&P 500 rallied 9.4% yesterday for its best day since October 2008.”

          … Oct 2008 you say? How’d that pan out?

    • DingwallMEMBER

      What Covid-19 virus? Almost feels like it doesn’t even exist. People are happy the US has saved us.

  5. We need some m&a activity to get things rolling here!
    I’m betting the travel sector and Anyone who needs a placement debt next 6 months!!!

  6. Nail salons closed, Lash salons closed, Gyms closed, Tanning salons closed, waxing salons closed, cosmetic surgery postponed…

    It’s about to get ugly out there.

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        Never watch it but, from the ads I’ve seen, like the southern end of a northbound camel. And that’s just the blokes.

        • That’s an outstanding description – I’ll borrow that if I may.

          My mates and I often describe the perma-tanned, burnt-to-a-crisp dollies as ‘a saddlebag with eyes’. I guess it applies to the fellas too (in the interests of social equality).

    • I have a theory that all the ABC presenters have now been forced to do their own makeup… next time your watching, keen to see if anyone agrees.

      • Agreed. Leigh Sales has made some interesting clothing choices over the past few days, and her makeup looks like it was not done by a professional.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Leigh Sales has always made some interesting clothing choices over the course of her professional career, and her makeup has never looked like it was done by a professional.

          • The Traveling Wilbur


            And she’s a good journo.
            And not as good an interviewer as she is a journo.
            Also accurate.

          • Leigh Sales is from Brisbane — even as a local I’d say that the ladies (if not the men) certainly ‘travel their own path’ when it comes to fashion. The results are somewhat ‘mixed’, to put it politely.

  7. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Ok …so how many bags of rice or pasta or packs of eggs can I now get for equity ….maaaaate !

    • Mmmmm, good thinking: Miele appliances plus 6 months supply of TP, diced tomatoes and pasta ..

      I think that could work you know ..

  8. happy valleyMEMBER

    Pfft. US$2 trillion in government fiscal etc support. That all. The US government needs to try harder on that front. At least, the Fed is going to have a go at saving the global financial system, so it deserves to get a go at that. Quadrillions anyone. The Japanese already know what they are. Trillions are just so old hat.

      • You should be okay. If Trump actually opens things up, market will go up further, then the exploding case numbers and the rapid escalation of a shutdown as a result will crash the market. If Trump comes to his senses and backs away from not reopening in a few weeks, market crashes again. Stimulus isn’t really moving the market in my opinion, it’s all trying to price how long the shutdown goes for and the impact that has….

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        Better a couple of weeks ago, of course, but I don’t think you’re too late to the party. Watch it closely and take a profit – the roller coaster has a long way to go. I’m only on BBOZ.

      • Same here although got BBOZ at open and BBUS at close (damn that 3% rise in the last 5 minutes).

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Salvatore is worried for his job ……..not surprised ….given his honesty and outspokenness I’m sure he is in his VC’s sights
      ….good to see our universities still have thinkers like him ……good interview

  9. Ventilators used in veterinary clinics for cats and dogs are being urgently sought for use in human hospitals to assist with the rising number of critical coronavirus patients.

    Many ventilator models used by vets are exactly the same as the machines used in human hospitals

    It’s better to have too many machines than not enough.

    Nah, it’s better to give tax cuts to the rich.

      • Are you inferring that there could be an incel on Macrobusinsess? How dare you. Next you’ll suggest not all of those who support lower immigration here do so for reasons of economic fairness and social utility.

          • I do believe, that if left to the most irritably vocal of shut-ins, or at least those who believe that the term vibrant is clever, that immigration would be decided upon whether or not you had at least one aunt that would place in a Penelope Keith look-a-like contest. And, should they achieve absolute power, that to stay in Australia the same condition stand should be met.(Indigenous Australians begrudgingly excepted.)

          • I do believe, that if left to the most irritably vocal of shut-ins, or at least those who believe that the term [email protected] is clever, that immigration would be decided upon whether or not you had at least one aunt that would place in a Penelope Keith look-a-like contest. And, should they achieve absolute power, that to stay in Australia the same condition stand should be met.(Indigenous Australians begrudgingly excepted.)

          • Probably a little late,
            but you just demonstrated why the term [email protected] came into regular use on MB.
            It’s an arms race between the censorbot and posters who just want to say stuff making up alternatives that sneak through.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I’ll kill these cunz if Pookie can’t get her air when I pay 10k a year in insurance!!


    Smart bloke made a computer model of virus spread
    1. Reckons we need 13 weeks (!) of lockdown . Almost impossible to maintain civil order for that long I think. Military will be involved

    2. Reveals that shutting down schools makes FA difference just to stick it to all the MDS sufferers here (not that the bloke isn’t a useless pr1ck but I’m sure he was acting as advised by “experts”)

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      The old ‘It’s all too hard, so why bother?’ strategy. Being exploited to the max already I see. That really was quick.

    • You left out the majority of the effect of school closures.
      His modelling also assumed that the children with mingle in their community if the schools were closed.
      If the schools were closed and the the children didn’t run around and mingle then it would have an effect.

      The major point of the piece is that according to the model 80% of us need to be in lockdown to get it under control. School age or otherwise.

    • Coming, with all your knowledge and many many days/weeks of research you have done looking into this virus, how many deaths do you think will be caused by this virus, including deaths due to the hospitals being overloaded?

      Also, what number of total deaths do you believe is required to justify deviating away from business as usual?

      I’m genuinely interested.

      • I can only regurgitate what I’ve read but the upper estimates are 150,000

        Now of those how many of those would have died of something else anyway? Either this year or next

        Average annual deaths in Australia is 150,000

        So instead of 300,000 (150,000 150,000)
        For instance, We might get 250,000 this year (50,000 who would have died of something else anyway get put in the Covid category)
        Then the following year(s) some of the vulnerable have already been weeded out so we get a lower death total than normal (zero from corona)

        Let’s say it goes like this

        2018 150,000
        2019 150,000
        2020 250,000
        2021 120,000
        2022 130,000

        That’s 50,000 excess deaths over three years (Arbitrary numbers but you get the idea of the effect I’m postulating)
        So we won’t know true impact immediately

        But to be honest we’ve seen the growth in case numbers in Italy peak and start to decline , and they’re at 7000 deaths currently (with more than 2x population of Australia)
        I honestly don’t believe they’ll get anywhere near 300,000 deaths so 150,000 for Australia seems extremely unlikely especially since we locked down relatively much earlier

        Probably only a fraction of that
        And mostly old people (of course there will be a small proportion of young that will be trotted out in the media for disaster p0rn)

        Additionally, there’s not a great deal of evidence to suggest that ICU markedly improves mortality rate with numbers showing mortality of ventilated patients (ie fully treated and the supposed reason we are trying to flatten the curve) is between 80-97% anyway
        So how many marginal deaths are we saving ?

        If we were talking about ECMO then maybe it will make a difference, but we have the capacity to provide only a handful of patients with ECMO (in nsw only RPAH and SVH)
        And at a cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars a day
        And it’s not a rapidly scaleable service due to expertise required
        And severely affected patients who survive will be left with pulmonary fibrosis and a drastically reduced quality of life and life expectancy anyway

        So overall I think it’s in large part for emotional/political reasons, and I am almost certain as a fig leaf to hide the real reason for bank and debt market bailouts
        Never waste a good crisis

        As to how many I think is acceptable, it’s a philosophical decision but I can tell you that we make decisions every day that exchange economic efficiency or autonomy for mortality and morbidity : speed limits, alcohol , healthcare funding for surgery/chemo/novel drugs/medical devices, pollution, Cigarettes etc

        But all of a sudden everyone is a humanist
        Pathetic hypocrites of course

        Not to mention the absolutely astounding hypocrisy of using this undemocratic, non market based approach when the same approach has never been even seriously considered to combat climate change which threatens the survival of the entire human species as well as other species (not just a few million elderly)

        • Look that is a point of view that I suspect quite a few have been mulling.

          On the one hand 150,000 is an out of your arse figure. Try do nothing = close to 100% infected. 2% – 3% case fatality rate for 25,000,000 would be 500,000 – 750,000. Italy is no way near done, they are just recycling their ICU beds as people die. Their lockdown now is more extreme than we have even tonight.

          On the other hand, how may suicides will follow the economic ruin and how many physical health problems will be exacerbated by the stress of losing so much?

          I suspect if there were a strong view that we should let it burn through the population we would have heard it and Trump would certainly have proposed it. There is not the broad political support for rolling the dice with this thing.

          The other consideration is that Australia’s whole political economy was growing ever more toxic by the month. It had to crash no matter what, and despite the humungous number of morons in this country, there were quite a few who knew this to be true. This is dreadful, but we needed something like this to destroy the economic cancer in this country.

          The sun will rise again, and more people than you give credit for know this, even as they stand in the Centrelink queues.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      There are 30,000 active members, and 17,000 reserves. Around half of them support the boots on the ground.

      How are 25,000 soldiers going to be spread around the country?

      12 hour shifts, and we are down to 12,500 max. That’s 2500 is for 5 major cities. In groups of 12, that’s not many control points.

      • Plus 70,000 police

        But whatever

        They’ll need everyone if we’re going to become an autocratic state

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      R₀ is not a constant, but a function of social distance. The research is using the predicted result as an input variable..

      • Haven’t got access to the methodology but I’m sure they would account for that …

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          No, they use R₀ to infer a constant ‘k’, which is then used in the probability of someone being infected in an interaction.

          The simulation about how containment will fail if not enough people is taking it seriously is correct, however the percentages at which it fails is a complete hack. It also depends on the initial condition. If the number of infected is small, then you don’t need 90% social distance to get the number down. When the number is huge like in Wuhan, the number didn’t go down until they weld people shut inside their home. (so 99%+).

    • 11:00 GMT – Spain surpasses China in deaths

      Spain recorded 738 more deaths over the past 24 hours

      10:30 GMT

      India’s colossal passenger railway system has come to a halt

  11. God damn, 10 mins before ASX closes and we get a ramp, which funnily enough continues into the thinner ASX200 futures market. Currently at around 5230 points. Is all this unlimited money starting to have an effect? This could be the start of bcnich’s ASX to 10k. Real economy is fvcked of course, and the workers won’t benefit from this increase at all. Which means an even larger wealth divide and more capital for the capital class to oppress the workers that don’t die.

    • cant last wall street having one last bailout before it all turns custard

      ftse up 5% with london in lockdown and NO economic activity taking place

      central banks think they can fix everything

      will buy the dow when it hits under 10k and it will

    • Nobody actually buys shares any more…….just a derivative there of. Reckon Commsec, MLC, First State and others are getting regular phone calls from above about their social obligations.

    • There are a number of calls for extremely high futures targets – not just bcnich’s, but the rule is that the recovery doesn’t begin with a V-shaped rebound – typically you get a ‘re-test’ of the recent low at some point. Honestly, we’re too early onto the US virus ramp to get excited — I think we go lower again. If not this week then in the weeks ahead. The headlines can’t be anything but negative for while.

      To be sure though, there is nothing fundamental, outside of money printing on a massive scale that could justify a ramp in the ASK to 10k. Be prepared.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Sure you could wait until next week or the weeks ahead. But the next 5 minutes looks toats promising already.

        • I’m not here to knock it – if 5 minutes if your timeline then pile on. You probably can’t loose!

    • It’s over red rover, buy anything like Gold, BTC, land or vintage cars or art work that can’t be easily replicated. Because these boffins are gonna destroy fiat.

  12. I am pretty sure I’ve had Covid-19 last year. I see that some of the Italian doctors are questioning the pneumonia deaths from last year … Ho Hum …

  13. per Stoller:

    The Federal Reserve just hired one of the world’s largest Wall Street firms to manage the entire multi-trillion dollar Federal Reserve bailout of Wall Street. This is a fucking joke.

    Which is his response to this Bloomberg story:

    Fed Enlists BlackRock In Its Massive Debt-Buying Programs

    BlackRock advising the govt on the bailouts. You can’t make this stuff up.

    Pretty much a take over of Government if you ask me …

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Well, the Fed is basically a private sector owned/controlled central bank and everybody knows the private sector does everything better – just look how well they have managed the financial system.

      • The Fed is administered by orthodox economics first and foremost, albeit one could see Trump putting political pressure on Powell to facilitate the financial sector due to his economic views E.g. the market not politics determines distribution vectors.

        • BS, isn’t it skip? Time for hard-money reality — unless you like to traffic in shyte you create from thin air. Isn’t that the measure of anything? Not to worry though, style over substance has been ‘en vogue’ for so long now, which chunt knows any different these days? The fiat crowd are about to be incinerated (and rightfully derided for believing in such childish notions).

          Good luck, chunts!

          • Their is a preponderance of works covering soft money and all its features, you not availing yourself of it and then pontificate about hard money is a punch line to an economic joke. American history going back to early days is even contra to your beliefs, nothing logical about holding a ex ante position when the evidence is contra to it … no matter how much you – believe – it so.

        • Skip, I should exhibit more humility on this subject but I am now so convinced we’ll see another gold standard in my life-time I couldn’t give a rat’s. As someone who has young children, nothing could make me happier. People who believe in fake money are themselves, fake.

          Sorry, chief, but I’m a believer in ‘an honest wage for an honest day’s work’ — if you don’t agree then, good luck to you and all like you.

          • Look your moralization about gold is pure money crankery, inanimate objects can’t imbue human traits and their is no run around. BTW don’t give me the honest days work narrative when you tried asscovering for Munger the destroyer of honest work and capital to line his pockets – survival of the fittest capitalism – pure FIRE sector antics with no real production or capital formation.

            You read like an old Cato – Heritage devote …

            PS. contra to your desire no one is looking at going back to a gold standard because it would necessitate a global depression and we know how that worked out last time.

        • Skip, why don’t we leave it like this: you think one thing and I think another. That’s all healthy.

          In a few years time one of us will be proven wrong — it’s all good.

          • Sorry Dominic I disagree with your base premise of what thinking is and the methodology behind it. You blindly believe in Austrian ecoomics, IMO which is based on ex ante philosophical axioms or moralistic prescriptive regardless of any evidence to the contrary. This is preached to the unwashed from high above [self awarded authority] not unlike your recent tautology of “the Capitalist” and Immutable laws [tm] of Economics.

            Further complicated by past statements about being neoclassical trained only to view it a lies at some point. Drama here is neoclassical is based off fundamental Austrian ex ante axioms, too which, they applied bad maths and physics in an attempt to make it a science – some suggest for dubious reasons.

            Anywho “thinking” is an intellectual undertaking and necessitates changing or adjusting ones views as new or better information is available. To date I find that hard to reconcile with Austrians full stop and to a lesser degree neoclassicals – neo/new Keynesians [neoclassical in drag].

            Not to mention this is not a personal opinion fracas, I’m not per se in a binary juxtaposed opposition to you personally [time and space issues], I’m contra to what the Austrians are selling. You just happen to be an individual on the sell side and mistake my intent for a personal attack. That said sometimes Austrians think themselves clever and engage in disingenuous dialogue or semantic pettifoggery to advance their cause – its just so Bernays.

            Look its not much different to say fundie Marxists, whilst Marx did make some keen observations and predict a few outcomes that does not make him omnipotent or justify turning him into a cult figure. I’ve already said I disagree with the labour value theory basically on its moralistic underpinnings E.g. bad methodology.

            Please don’t use twisted equivalencies such as thinking and faith/belife, its a form of agnotology.

        • Ya know, skip, I used to mechanically swallow the Keynesian Kool-Aid (much to my personal discredit) and never quite understood any of it — but thought to myself : it must be right, otherwise why would it be so ‘mainstream’? And taught in good Universities, to boot!

          The beauty of Austrian economics is that it speaks to the common man, the pragmatist (like me), with both solid empirical evidence and sound theory to back it up. Keynesian economics is a grand exercise in sophistry which has sucked a huge number of credulous but (largely) ordinary intellects in and nigh destroyed Western economies.

          Not to worry, because these quacks will soon be exposed.

  14. How will the government balance the budget after this is over? Double income tax rates? double GST? remove negative gearing? remove franking credits (not that companies would give out much dividends anymore).

    • ill fated bid to instill hope. LOL
      If Putin said that he would not have been forgiven. MSM would have been spilling their guts over those comments for weeks.

    • Just part of the broad risk on / bear market rally I presume.

      Real world will reassert reality eventually … wheee crash again.

    • I heard that the US was taking the opportunity of the low price to stock up its strategic reserves.

    • Short covering rally and …. yuuuuge money printing, designed to offset the demand deficit.

      The beauty of this strategy is that the inflation arrives later — thereby not directly attributable to policy-making. Oil is going not going lower — not for any sustained period of time. If it crashes lower from here, buy it hard.

  15. This thing must be making the Libs incredibly sad. Due to mass job loss they are having to move centrelink wholly online. No longer will they be able to make the poor and desperate do the walk of shame into the centrelink office and be told to wait for 3 hours to talk to a psychopath with no empathy that will make them jump through 500 hoops and wait 3 months for their first payment. How will LNP pollies be able to smile in the morning knowing they dont have their boot on the throat of the downtrodden?

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      By making the online system return an error when you click on submit, then lose the progress of everything you have filled out.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        That would never happen.

        Much simpler to put up a muli-page form with a dozen-plus separate sections and ensure the Submi button is never enabled for most applicants.

        Just sayin’.

        • Good idea, no progress indicator too. So you don’t know how many more steps there are. Then when you submit it no confirmation or email sent. So in a week you follow up and they can say we never got that application. 😃

    • Fckn alright!

      I was doing fine with all the ingredients but I couldn’t keep up with all the farckens!

      Recipe bombed!

  16. FFS – this wedding was on 14 March when everyone was well aware of the risks:

    Meanwhile, one of our local hairdressers had to close because one of their clients came back from Aspen 2 weeks ago, didn’t self isolate and went to the hair salon. Of course she later tested positive but the hair dresser was open for 3 more days after he served her and now he’s tested positive as well.

    I hope he sues her for negligence.

  17. It is not a dichotomy of death vs no death. It is a completely overwhelmed hospital system versus a functioning one.
    As one senator (I believe) in the US put it with respect to Trump’s apparent desire to reopen things- how is the public likely to respond to nightly news footage of hospital corridors packed with sick and dying people?

    • Support for State Govt borrowing is a nailed on certainty — no state secrets!

      Gunna be on a humungous scale by the end of this crisis. They have no idea of the scale at this point.

  18. parasite developers fcken!

    The country’s biggest developers will ask federal Housing Minister Michael Sukkar to consider boosting the first home buyers grant nationally, to support demand for new housing and construction jobs during the coronavirus pandemic, during a telephone hook-up on Wednesday.

    The meeting is being co-ordinated by the Property Council’s Residential Development Council, which includes senior executives from Stockland, Lendlease, Mirvac, Satterley, Frasers, AVID and AVJennings.

    Satterley Property Group chief executive Nigel Satterley, who sits on the council, said a great and immediate national stimulus was needed “in these unusual times”. “I would like the Housing Minister to consider increasing the first home buyer grant to between $25,000 and $40,000 over the next six months, capped at a house and land price, and means tested,” Mr Satterley said.

    • as if that’s going to happen. There is a queue of industries waiting to be bailed out. The government is bankrupted.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        There is no limit to the amount of your-money they will be prepared to spend now. None.

        • TTW gets the cigar! When the tide goes out … you get to discover just how many people are swimming naked.

          In Straya … about 98%! Money printing is about to go nuclear.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        But, but the property ponzi must be saved at all costs, as it’s Scotty from Marketing’s core promise – so, every other bailout will just have to wait.

      • The government cannot go bankrupt in debt denoted in its own currency, only drama would be inflation, which is not going to happen at this moment. Seems some are still beholden to refuted beliefs due to ideological preferences – see ScMo latest missive about doing stuff and bad stuff happening after the coast is clear.

        • So, ummm, Straya won’t become Venezuela. Why not? Pray tell — this is bound to be good.

          • Again I reiterate there is heaps of data and information which you could easily use to reconcile all your misconceptions – saying Venezuela denotes more about your cognitive disposition than it does to reality.

            Australia is not even comparable to it in a cornucopia of factors, but thanks for the highlighting of what passes for AET monetarist thinking, not that it was soundly refuted back in Rayguns and Thatchers day, hence the move to quasi monetarism.

            Keep the faith dom … lol … cookie cutter economics … with a side of bond holder trepidation ….

    • migtronixMEMBER

      25k is really going to help now youre unemployment – i can see the attraction of this offer..

    • Normally I would oppose this stupid policy, but now that I’m a snug Kent with a home. I’d like to see my house increase in value. So thanks Mr Property Lobby Guy.

  19. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Prince Charles has the virus- William straight into the hot seat after the Queen kicks it.

    Remember when the royals used to be the main news – Harry got booted maybe like 4 weeks ago.

    I didn’t care then but I remember it was the main news over this “weird flu in China” back then.
    The world has changed.

  20. Prince Charles tested positive to Bovid19. Might set the cats amongst the pigeons if he carks it.

    MiBo, this might be your aha moment!

  21. Can someone please kindly inform Slowmo that the term ‘house party’ went out of usage in 1999? Cringe.

  22. Singapore is telling people if they go on holiday and come back with the virus then their medical cost is full charge, no national health discount. Considering the amount of fvcktards in this country that are willing to jump on a cruiseliner because “they deserve it” and “its just the flu” we need to implement this immediately.

    Maybe if someone catches it from their kid that has gone to school, maybe Scummo should pay for their care as well.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      An Enduring Guardian should be appointed to all Australian who got on a cruise ship after Diamond Princess, as they clearly lack the mental capacity to make rational decisions for themselves.

      • Its mind boggling stupidity that these fvcking retards decide to do it after the Japanese ship experience. Seriously, we should let Darwin sort them out. I have no clue how they have survived to retirement if they are so seriously fvcking stupid.

    • There are two systems available to the State:
      1. The State provides free (or subsidised) healthcare to its citizens and instructs them how to live their lives.
      2. The State provides no free (or subsidised) healthcare to its citizens and lets them lead the lives they wish to lead.

      • There is obviously a third way where healthcare is available and we plebs just keep going about life. That great big bogeyfolk the state may say “done’t smoke” or “cut down on bacon”. They are yet to outlaw either. In fact, there is so much grey in between the two statements posted, and we’ve lived in that grey for the past 50 years, to show that the bluster of the ideology that you sprout is but a pop gun against the reality of lived experience.

          • More misrepresentation, smithy. It’s about having a reference point from which to direct policy rather than simply believing we really can live in a world of skittle-sh1tting unicorns. You’re welcome to do so, of course but believing in something doesn’t make it reality — you and ScoMo (and his Hillsong happy clappies) have a lot more in common than you think. 😉

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            More misrepresentation, […]

            You literally wrote “there are two systems available”.

            (And that is just one of a myriad examples of your either/or ultimatums.)

        • So, you’re happy to provide scarce and valuable healthcare resources to people who freely choose to live risky / unhealthy lifestyles?

          Oki-doki …. it’s a free world. Perhaps we should divide the country into those who wish (voluntarily) to chip in for those folk (mentioned above) and those who don’t. That’s fair isn’t it?

          But would such a system work? Of course not, because you can bet your bottom dollar that all those in favour want ‘other people’ to fund it all. In all other words, those talking the talk are not walking the walk. Same as it ever was.

      • The most troubling aspect of it for some of we shut-ins is that they have been the [email protected] pure breed. We are all as selfish and foolish as each other. The virus has shown us to be beyond similar. They more bigoted of the shut-ins may have to say that it is the old white blokes that have been running the show that should shoulder the blame. For they are the ones who make the rules. It’s a monkey scratching their head moment but if they scratch for long enough they may eventually stimulate the neuron that leads to a new thought.

  23. Also, first hand Doctor account of COVID in the ED.

    This would be about 14 days ahead of where Aus is today

    I would strongly recommend this, even if you don’t have critical care or even medical training. It may help if, god forbid, you or your relative ends up on the wrong side of this thing.

    Or this

    Ignorance is the enemy.


  24. As an update – things are getting tense at work. New teams being made with mandatory staffing requirements and i’m taking the front with one of them (mandatory). Cases are escalating and doubling every 2.5-3 days and the trajectory is steepening. Still none in ICU (yet) but it’s only a matter of time. The number of people I’m seeing who were overseas and didn’t self isolate and later had a positive test is scary.

    That said – I went to Dan murphys to buy some beer the other day. People were acting like retards to keep distance between us. Maybe it’s catching on?

    catch it is an expectation, just hoping it isn’t severe. If it takes me, know that I hate globalism.

      • I pussed out and bought a case of the Sierra Nevada Californian ipa, only 4.2% but a great drinking beer if you like juicy hops. Might break out the laphroig tomorrow night after some exercise, also have some nice SA reds in the pantry too. What are you drinking to the end of the world?

        Another big ups for bluesy folk music – if you search jimmybay – saw him live in SA the other week, he’s doing regular instagram shows at 830 SA time each night, good one man music. Bit of a story teller too

        • I’m a Yuuuuge fan of Rhone reds. And whites.

          I drink Condrieu when I can afford it and Gigondas and Vaqueryas (or CNdP).

          Sorry – my time in the mother country has spoilt me ..

    • Good luck. I hope you have the appropriate PPE. When/if you get infected just make sure you get a low viral load if possible, I think this may be a reason why some people have mild vs severe cases (at least I hope this is the case).

      • There definitely seems to be a correlation between ‘dose’ of inoculum and severity of disease. Yes, I’m no mater, someone could collapse in a room but I wouldn’t go in without appropriate Ppe, a sick Doctor doubles the load on the system.

        • Well once again good luck and I wish you all the resilience, strength, patience, compassion and courage you will need. I went out of self isolation to get my CFS body a flu vaccination today. I was wearing my Zoono bonds to the skin for 24 hours and kills the SARS COV2 surrogate sanitiser on my hands and all exposed skin, had hair tied back in a bun covered with a Japanese headscarf (to ensure stray hair didn’t touch my fact and make me itchy and therefore want to touch my face), my aviator sunnies (largest lense glasses I have that are closest to the eyes) and a mask. I was geared up before leaving the house and when I got back home I re-entered via the back door laundry, stripped off with all clothes immediately in the washing machine and then I jumped into the shower and washed with soap (not body wash, urgh skin is still dry but you do what you have to do). I made my boomer mother do the same when she got home from the Dr yesterday too, which I count as a victory. I got a few strange looks while I was out but I don’t care, no one could identify me! I also managed to get my parents wearing masks on the few occasions we had to break self isolation last week, even though they felt funny doing it. Someone has to start a new behaviourial norm, and it may as well be our family. It is funny, during the bush fire smoke season I hated wearing a mask as it triggered all my negative emotions from dealing with pollution while living in China, but I wore it because I was shocked at how my lungs didn’t cope with the smoke. I thought after being in Oz for 3 years they would have recovered from any damage. Now I find wearing a mask deeply reassuring. Once our safety goggle order is delivered from RSEA then our household will be set wrt to normal person ppe for not getting this thing. We are doing our bit by self isolating and riding out the first wave as we have no idea how my chronic fatigue syndrome immune system will cope with it (I suspect not well) and my parents are early boomers.

    • Thanks, I wish you all the best. Let me know if there is anything I can do for you? Even a small task. As an unemployed man I want to feel somewhat useful.

    • Yep, it’s the alt-right’s fault .. proves they’re chunts!

      Nothing to do with cronyism, eh skip?

      • Look the Conservatives in the US and UK are well known as the Corruption parties for the better part of their history. In the US case the Democrats joined the party when Bill Clinton reformed the party and moved it too right, evidenced by Rubinomics – the guy that did not blink when productivity and wages diverged followed by parabolic C-suite remuneration and increased FIRE sector percentage of the economy, plus tax haven antics.

        That’s not to say I have soft spot for the likes of Eisenhower or Goldwater, all things considered back in the day, even Raygun at least kept the loon pond hobbled, till Pat Robinson was used as a go around gate keeper.

        History Dominic, history, ex ante cookie cutter optics is a poor observational tool in retrospect and does not refute it – great goats sack who pushed Bernays supply side with Trickle down again?

    • Did he mention leaving the gold standard?

      No? Oh, well, pretty much proves he’s another moron to be ignored.

      No to worry, plenty of space in the world for another religious lunatic.

      • Vacuous rants with only references to a gold standard is not an argument or any kind of logic, you need to support it. The Great Depression happened on a gold standard and the intransigence of the ideologues of the day that called themselves economists only acerbated it, strangely or not this then lead too a rise in socialist – communist popularity in the masses – which in effect required totalitarian – authoritarian measures by the state to clamp down on it – own goal …. sigh.

  25. “An amazing revelation in RTE Radio that 24 Irish medical personnel in Perth in Australia have quit their jobs and are coming home to help with #covidireland”

    Ahhhh such respect and allegiance migrants have for Australia after we welcome them with open arms and taxpayer wallets. We’re so lucky to have them at this time of crisis!

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      Maybe ScoMo can call them “unAustralian”. Would have about as much applicability as the other people he’s been applying it to.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      More a case of if they stay here under Strayan leadership they will die. They’re smart to run.

  26. Also interesting “ Instead, what this means can happen is that the Treasury can now create a bond whenever it wishes and the Bank of England may buy it directly from it, without ever involving private banks. In effect, then, the Treasury can now run an overdraft at the Bank of England (even if it is wrapped up in a bond arrangement) which is exactly what is required at this point in time. It also means that private banks need no longer profit from this arrangement, which they have done to date, quite unreasonably.”

    • Welcome back Morgs
      On this issue the Gubmint was always keen to ‘distance’ itself from the deficit funding process – now the circumstances are such that any pretence is tossed in the long grass.

      It is now money printing till TPTB recognise the game is up and introduce a currency the citizens can coalesce around.

    • Seems kind of young for my liking (the author) – but entirely possible .. depends on desperation. Prefer gold, myself but each to his / her own.

      • The history of Gold does not support your views, same goes for a digital token that has epic and wild swings in notional price, all based on a pinky swear of ideological origins in block chain.

        Interesting that some on one hand bang on about Sovereignty and in the next breath globalist market dogma.