Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Everything is awesome as the whole of Asia buys buys buys! Or is it just short covering before another leg down as the US remains in deadlock, both leadership wise and fiscal stimulus, as Congress remains stalled. Gold continued its good run to put in a new weekly high while other Asian nations announce more targeted support packages in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s unlimited QE program.

The Shanghai Composite is up 1.3% after the lunch break at 2699 points while the Hang Seng Index looks set to close nearly 4% higher, taking back the previous losses to be at 22463 points:

Japanese share markets are stonking the rest of the region with a big upsurge in the wake of more internal stimulus, the Nikkei 225 closing over 7% higher for a near 10% gain already this week, at 17940 points. The USDJPY  remains steady just above the 110 handle, unable to beat the previous Friday highs:

The ASX200 had a very solid session, leading by over 4% at lunch before some profit taking in the afternoon sent it down to only a 1% gain, just before a FOMO trade at the close saw it hold on to the 4.2% gain to 4735 points. Huzzah! Crisis over? Great time to add to shorts if you ask me. Meanwhile the Aussie dollar was again somewhat calm, lifting sharply before steadying here at just above the 59 handle as the USD remains temporarily weak:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are gaining following the solid Asian session, but are anticipating more volatility tonight. The four hourly S&P futures chart shows a nascent recovery up towards the 2300 point level, but it seems all upside is dependent on the Congress coming up with a stimulus plan. Would be handy if one or two more GOP senators were sent to quarantine so the Democrats could pass something like what the rest of the civilized world is doing, but one can only hope:

The economic calendar is full of preliminary manufacturing and service PMI prints which you guessed it, aren’t going to be pretty, all across Europe and the US.

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Comments

  1. Here is the link:

    https://my.gov.au

    Spam it.

    Open it up in your browser on your phone, tablet or PC. Refresh it every time you think of it. Get your friends and family doing the same. Overload the system so completely that they have to increase the capacity onehundred-fold. Then, with some luck, when they shyte really hits the fan, at least it might be ready.

    Share it on FB, Twitter, Instagram and whatever other way you can to get people clicking and refreshing.

    It’s time to get very, very angry, and do something about it.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Funny you should say that ….not long back we said the same about their real estate ….Straya different and all that …………time to test the theory …….

    • adelaide_economistMEMBER

      Not to put too fine a point on it but here in Australia a very large proportion of aged care staff are, how should I put it, freshly arrived to Australia and marginally attached to the labour force. I don’t see them having a particularly strong inclination to hang around either in the event of a localised outbreak because the pay is crap and it’s not like being called ‘unAustralian’ is going to hold much sway. Not least because the PM’s exhortations seem to be exclusively in English and therefore probably bypass at least some of those who probably need to be hearing the message.

  2. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    Good to see our world class NBN is working well. 5pm and it has gone to the sh!tter and now with kids home during the day, might as well give up looking for work.

    I was just thinking .. corporations and government have spent millions to stop computer viruses .. but have certainly dropped the ball when a old fashioned virus hits our shores!!!

  3. “Tourism, hospitality, entertainment and retail workers are being banned from borrowing and having limits placed on credit by Bluestone, a specialist residential home loan bank, triggering fears other banks will follow in a bid to lower any risk of loan defaults and protect margins.

    The bank is increasing interest rates across all products, lifting loan-to-value ratios by 35 basis points, imposing a 50 basis point loading on investment loans, and withdrawing a 10 basis point discount on fixed rate loans.

    Mortgage brokers expect other lenders to follow as unemployment soars, economic growth falls and prospects for recovery remain uncertain because of the coronavirus pandemic.”

    Source AFR

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Centrelink can’t cope with the numbers of unemployed workers from these industries now inundating them and financiers are just starting to confirm that they don’t want to know them. Next option(s): homeless and/or starvation?

      How good is Straya (Scotty from Marketing may rue the day he launched that marketing campaign?)

        • Not in my experience during 2008. I was working in the online advertising industry and it was growing then year on year despite the downturn. I guess companies need to promote their products.

          • Jumping jack flash

            In 2008 I was working for a company that sold mostly financial products for the big 4. The company shut down. 4 months unemployed.

          • I ran a market research company in Dublin in 2008 doing work for Guinness , Diagio amongst others , the work dried up over night…major companies reigned in their marketing spend immediately…Hence I moved to Australia months later…Depending on how this plays out…I may go back, you miss your people more when events like these happen.

          • @Tom I briefly worked for an SEO/SEM company called Interactive Return. They were looking after a Guinness account at the time. Did you work there? I believe the company went under.

          • I ran my own Company Gavin and did work for Lansdowne Marketing and Millward Brown on Mount St I think… had contacts in there

  4. It is reassuring to see so many office workers helping themselves to computer systems and taking them home. I have been relocating for the last month and have set up a home gaming LAN. IGP might be a bit meh but wife and kids are having a heap of fun on Minecraft building their own village and farming. It teaches online cooperative working, design and resource management, important skills in this brave new world of the pandemic.

  5. My response to a sales person about commodities reports.. could have written it better but I am not in best mood..
    “Will let you know once I am ready.. Situation in Sydney is going from bad to worse with eh covid19 as our incompetent politicians are trying their best to get us killed. I’ll contact you if I am interested to go ahead. Reports are good it’s just do I need them now. “

    • because Scumo and Josh want a surplus and refusing to launch proper stimulus – to start paying unemployed. They’ll rather wait until there are riots and looting of stores and property as people realise they are left to rot and die. WHen it starts hope those desperate people head straight for the Shire and other Libs areas.

      • Interesting you mentioned looting. I went to my local Coles and felt that we aren’t far off that, going by the quiet panic and security guards. I saw several people eating things and discarding them in store blatantly in front of staff… looting is not far off.

        • Jumping jack flash

          North Brisbane the same. Old lady grunted past me and grabbed a heap of veggies. Glared at me then rushed off. Panic buying still happening.

          Great for the economy. I don’t think anyone’s ever bought this much in the past 5 years! I don’t know where they’re finding the money from… retail was just about to collapse 2 weeks ago from lack of interest.

  6. Perth bus driver confirmed to have the virus, catch those buses everyday wonder if I can shut my office down or if they need to confirm I caught that bus.

    • Do you need more evidence? It was Putin who did it. Russians athletes couldn’t compete under their country’s flag at Olympics so Vladimir said: no one will!

  7. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Young friend picked up some ( hard to find) eggs for me this avo …..asked if cage eggs were OK ?………..Jeez I dunno ?……….such ethical questions will crowd our judgements in the days to come ……….

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      “Okay gang, they’re both out the back. Who do we eat first, the hippy or the bogan? Hippy will taste like sh!t but the bogan has a few in him and may put up a fight.”

  8. reusachtigeMEMBER

    You offshore haters, ie, the loser IT Crowd, will love this. Loads of chatter about banks and financial institutions in a load of trouble because their Indian centres have closed due to lock down with no possibility of remote working for those curry peeps because of the security protocols that basically mean that curries have to be vetted each day when they come into the office. No office no job done. They are scrambling to come up with a local solution or else ASIC issues arise.

  9. claiming the 15th spot after solid performance and laying the ground to go further by releasing thousands of infected from cruise ship unchecked. Top 10 spot is almost guaranteed now. Well, we are known to punch above our weight so why not on this occasion.
    Thank you Scumo, Gledys and both Fed and States oppositions for nowhere to be heard of. You all played pivotal role in our success to compete on world stage and give countries like Brasil run for their money.

  10. If there was a virus targeting people in their 30’s, but left boomers them relatively unscathed, would boomers accept a 50% hit to super and property? Or would they just tell all the people in their 30’s to self-isolate while the rest of society gets on with things.

  11. So, the super withdrawal thing…. I’m a sole trader earning fvckall from the biz and going to TAFE at the mo and living off my own dime. Super is in SMSF with the boys here which has only lost about 4% from the highs. 20 years to retirement. I think I would be stupid not to rip the 10K out. Thoughts?

    • If you are a sole trader it is a no brainer tax play. No tax on the way out. If you need it you have it. If you don’t need it you can contribute it back in due course (getting a tax deduction too).

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      I want to draw Out of my super so I can engage in a greater degree of social isolation in a couple of weeks time.
      I’m still working Now but at an intentional reduced work load.
      I’m trying to be hypervigilant only doing sewer chokes on tidy well kept middle class houses.
      Factories with Staff/public toilets, crammed share house and jobs in unclean houses im already knocking back.
      Im doing extra disinfecting after each job but if I keep going into 10 plus customer houses a week for too much longer I’m gonna end up catching this virus.
      How does one get the ball rolling on drawing on ones super?

  12. A nice kick in the guts on the way out the door, final pay is short by 15 hours, hmmmmmmmmm.
    Gnna happen I suppose when everyone is getting laid off and all the interruption to routine and such but I found it very silly to still be doing paper timesheets in 2020. Asking for mistakes to be made and of course it happens to me at the worst time, thanks murph

  13. Yes it looks like a lot will be falling down this time at times like this you see what men are made from only the strong of mind and heart will be able look inside themselves and dig a bit deeper to carry on a lot will fall down

  14. I’m staggered that people think it’s okay to suddenly stop paying their rent.

    Landlords still pay for maintenance, council rates, water rates, interest if bought with loan, management fees, strata fees if a unit. None of these things stop.

    To suddenly decide to not pay without exhausting all other avenues is theft plain and simple.

    If tenants really are in hardship, before stealing from the landlord (not his/her fault you’re out of job), these people should first sell all their investments, pull the maximum they can out of their super, sell their car, sell the $1500 iPhone, cancel all the streaming subscriptions, sell their jewellery, and when they’ve run through that money then go to the landlord and say this is what I can pay you per week do you accept?

    How many people are actually doing that? I bet none have done that.

    I bet most of these people drive a better car than me. Go sell your car, sell your $1500 phone and replace it with a $9 one from Coles, sell your valuables, pull $10k from super, and then when you’ve run out of money go to the landlord with your bank statement and say this is all I can pay this week. Can you accept x amount of money? Or do the honourable thing and move into a mate’s garage or shed.

    • “ Those who were “sick and in the frontline of the pandemic fight would get preference for treatment”, he said.

      “In order to reassure the public that no favourites are being played here … if we have a pre-pandemic vaccine I would be the last person in Australia to be given it.”

      Wow. If true then kudos.

      Scomo would never consider that!

  15. TailorTrashMEMBER

    How will the great China belt and road come out of this one wonders …………..will all that new debt in the world narrow the opportunity for Chinese concrete ?

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        Once all the cruise companies go bust, can we sink all the ships off our coast and create some fish breeding grounds ?

        Asking for the thousands of species currently relying on the soon-to-be-extinct GBF.

    • I’m boiling away on my lounge thinking after the rubbish comments from scomo and his chief medical officer about the school kids not transmitting the disease as much and only mild symptoms etc etc and not one commentator or jurno questioning that uni students (that are in their 20s) are a hugely potential spreader of covid19 . I know the census for the uni’s to get paid is the 29th of this month. I cannot believe the msm is so beholden to not ask this question.
      P.s listening to the clowns 9pm address and ready with head in hands.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Costa Victoria sailed put of India on 29th Feb. Diamond Princess was stranded off Japan on February 4th. You have to be really, really, really, really stupid to get on a cruise after Diamond Princess.

  16. Ok so I read the don’t pay your mortgage don’t pay your rent post today from Crikey. I have a question. If we are going to be giving out all this money and support. What should I ask for?

    I mean I already missed out on the stamp duty exemption which cost me $53k..

    I have a mortgage of $150k (or close to) but may need to dip into offset after this madness. So may be a bit higher. But my repayments are much much lower than when I rented in Sydney. ($2,700 P/month).

    I was planning to have 3 months off to work on my cars and then go back to work. Child due in August.

    The missus is still working, we can manage on 1 income.

    But here is the rub for me. I got educated, worked for a multinational for 11.5 years, invested, and bought a house. I didn’t go stupid at auctions. I planned for armegeddon and it arrived.

    Things that irk me are, 1 free money to the plebs who didn’t plan, 2 paying stamp duty when I was a first home buyer like anyone else. But I just had more money because of above.

    This is why I’m against all these handouts. I DON’T Bleedin qualify!

    So should I refuse to pay my mortgage? (Currently have no job) or do I keep paying it and find a job and shut up? I know some will say I should shut up and be happy but I personally think if we are gonna give out handouts then a UBI should be given to everyone. Regardless of if they have a job or not.. it’s the only fair thing to do. Thoughts?

      • Swampy – I presume they will go to private treaty sales (ie advertise with a price) and private inspections. Hope yours works out ok, sounds like you have interest so might be fine.

        All up this means houses a) will have a clear price, and b) are only open to genuine buyers and are not a form of entertainment for the neighbours and the speculative masses.

        This should be the fcken rule ALL THE FCKEN TIME!

        • We’re rural regional so auctions aren’t like that

          We’ll be adding a price guide early next week – yes, PT, which we’re fine with

          Thanks for wishes , appreciated

          Been hard slog listing during fires (we were close to fire ground for months), smoke drought and Xmas and a crap agency

  17. Scummo announces end to auctions / open houses

    RIP AUS house price bubble … 24/03/2020

    True armageddon for every real estate agent and property flog.

    Because, you only ever need one (1) house.

    (… big….big… worry for banks!)

    Absolutely necessary measure, So good on ya Scummo.

    What does this tell us tho?

    The virus may slay more than 100k in Australia (esp with schools staying open! wtf with that? mad)
    Hospital ICU capacity woefully inadequate

  18. Just saw Scomo on the news a couple of minutes ago announce no more open homes or auctions.

    So that’s the end of the real estate market for a while. Lol.

    We live in historic times.

    I wonder if Corelogic will be laying staff off?

    Edit….well how late to the party was I? Hats off to everybody whwho was quicker on the draw than me.

      • Jumping jack flash

        April lockdown.
        Will fix everything. No unemployment because all the displaced can work stacking shelves and distributing food to the rest of the population. The rest of the population continues to pour QE cheapened debt into the economy through endless panic buying.

        Nothing to worry about.

        • In the ACT schools are closed but essential (health etc) workers’ children can still attend IF their families can not make any alternative arrangements. The kids get to sit supervised in the library (socially distanced) and do the same online / learn from home curriculum as the kids at home do.

          It doesn’t seem like rocket surgery.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Oh and don’t forget #ScottyFromMarketings impassioned pleas to consider the crucial importance of Children’s education.
          After the foreign student course fees are banked on April first ya won’t hear a fking peep out this cnvt on children’s education!
          Slimy turd just Obfuscates and lies every time he opened his mouth!
          I know all politicians and political parties engage this constant game of spin/narrative management but our PM just doesn’t know how to switch the BS off. Maybe it’s just who he is all the time!
          A truly revolting human being.

    • Him and the Uni lobby need to be charged for mass manslaughter. Guarenteed he will shut them after census. I cant believe he basically shut the whole country down except the petri dish that is schools. Fvcking unbelieveable.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      WTF is his obsession with keeping schools open when he won’t even send his own kids in??

      Why does he keep saying “for an education”??

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Why is everyone banging on about schools. Its essential to keep people in jobs and appropriate for managing health risks. I heard 16% attendance only so its fine. If you dont want your kids there fine, its optional. I at least appreciated Scomo recognising the economic crisis and trying to keep some sanity in decisions.

      • Because kids are typically asymptomatic Carriers. They will get infected and spread it to everyone else (adults who are doing the right thing) despite the lockdown. It undermines the lockdown. It ensures infection spreads. It’s absolute idiocy.

        • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

          I hope Dad the toilet paper deliverer and Mum the critical care worker dont live in your area then if forced to stay home, in spite of your simple one-dimensional thinking on this.

          • Have you got any idea how many people standing in those Centrelink queues do NOT have school age kids?

            Hint: sh!tloads of them.

            They can deliver the toilet paper. It’s not that hard.

            Critical care workers with kids already have arrangements in place (in those states that closed schools).

            There is no reason to keep schools open for everyone else.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            There is no reason to keep schools open.
            Unless economy more important than saving lives.

          • In Victoria schools remain open to vulnerable kids and those who parents work in critical services.

            They need to shut the rest of the nation’s schools now.

  19. Looting in Chedraui Veracruz caused by the quarantine lockdown due to Coronavirus.

    That’s coming next. People will start looting! That’s what ScoMo is trying to prevent. Increased new start to stop us going all caveman.

    Do you think it will happen here? Place your bets. Now thinking it’s time to buy a gun or 3.

    Edit some comments say it’s from a few years ago. Might contain fake news.
    https://www.facebook.com/200466990306655/posts/1114019315618080/

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          How are you guys going to get to your registered fire arms during a home invasion if they are locked in a safe as is legally required,…mmm?
          Your Better of, for close quarters confrontations, to possess an illegally acquired hand gun that you use to kill said intruder, put his prints on the gun as well as yours and tell the police that you disarmed the intruder and shot him with his own illegal gun.
          A much more sensible strategy for home defence.
          Come on people,…think!

    • To be honest, I don’t think it’s that simple. If you’ve lost your job and your visa is expiring but you can’t get out because no flights or your own country is shut, there’s no easy answer.

      Eg India has stopped incoming flights.

      Personally I’d almost rather pay them survival money to sit in their bedsit or whatever and not move, than have them roaming about, what? Begging? Trying to work in a closed economy? Coughing on people?

  20. WHO SPOKESWOMAN SAYS SEEING “VERY LARGE ACCELERATION” IN CASE NUMBERS IN THE UNITED STATES, SAYS IT HAS POTENTIAL TO BE EPICENTRE OF OUTBREAK

    look out

    (black death = futures limit up, o’course)

  21. My nine year old just watched Scomo’s presser.

    She turned to me and said “So he is saying money is more important than lives”.

    Me: “Yes. Yes exactly.”

    Proud.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          If I’ve been asking A2’s little portable-money-sink any questions of any kind there are bigger problems manifest than what some poor scandie kid has been subjected to by world media and parents.

          And, she’s right of course, she’d have told her Dad to buy BTC futures, not the digital currency itself.

    • You should be! I haven’t watched it yet, might catch it on youtube after putting in my champers order at Dan Murhpy (still haven’t gotten around to ordering my case of champers to celebrate the reprehensibles carking it)

      • It’s the bit in the Q and A where he says they won’t shut down certain (infectious) activities because it is someone’s business / job.

        Oh yeah need that champers!

        • Just ordered 8 bottles for the reprehensibles (hopefully a nice Brown Brothers), now that I figured out my sh1t list, and a bottle of sparkling rose and a sparkling red. The olds have their birthdays on two consecutive days in April so I think their present will be a happy colour sparkling, plus a homemade cake and a nice dinner.

    • The 8 yo told me tonight the kids at school were saying Scott Morrison is killing people. To be fair I had to say “not personally”.

      The third class kids are all over this!

      She also said he’s “making incorrect decisions!”. She didn’t get that from me either.

      Course, this is Petersham, not exactly Scomo central, but funny what the kids are picking up.

      Edit she must have heard last week, this week has been “school from home”.

  22. I think that after this absolute train-wreck shi$show of a news conference tonight, we’re all aware the Govt is not telling us everything they know.

    (!)

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      They know that there is no vertical axis on a graph high enough to be able graph our gold medal winning version of daily exponential growth of the virus spread?

      • Me too. I finally twigged to what will happen to some people after listening to today’s Chris Martenson youtube vid. A South African ex olympic swimmer has had Covid 19, apparently he is on the mend but a short walk fatigues him immensely and it takes him hours to recover. I then remembered that serious fatigue was reported by many in China in the early days. A very common way of developing chronic fatigue syndrome is through having a virus and getting ‘post viral fatigue’ (that never goes away completely, if you’re lucky is lessens over time). My mind shudders in horror at hundreds of thousands of people being struck down with chronic fatigue syndrome (it’ll take at least 6 months for those diagnosis to come in as that’s how long your unexplained fatigue needs to have existed for most countries to diagnose). This is the syndrome that has stolen my life from me and has been incredibly difficult to manage and learn to live with. It is the reason why I can’t do ‘career’ work (which is stressful in nature) or work full time (too draining). It has had an unimaginably large impact on me and my parents financially. I’ve considered killing myself because of it (there is a heap of chronic physical pain that usually comes with it which sucks). I’m single because of it. I was never all that into having my own kids (I love being aunty to my friend’s kids though) but it might have been nice to have been in a relationship where it was actually an option to consider. If there is an epidemic of chronic fatigue syndrome worldwide I’m sure it’ll finally be researched properly so we understand what it actually is and all the ways in which it screws up the normal systemic functions of your body, but oh boy I would not wish this on anyone.

        • My brother had a big car accident years ago, nearly died. Then went to Asia and went tubing and nearly died again after hitting the water hard and causing internal bleeding (not helped by the fact he’s on blood thinners after his car accident operation), he then got chronic fatigue as a result of so much trauma.

          He is lucky in that his wife and he decided to buy in Healesville and were able to buy a home nearly outright that way (with parental help). But it at least means they don’t have to do stressful career work and can look after their health.

          I was feeling immensely burnt out in my last job. So much so that I couldn’t work out with intensity without getting sick and run down. So I can somewhat understand how debilitating it is.

          Take care of yourself. I really don’t want to get Bat flu, I got regular flu 2 years ago. Knocked me down for 3 days, although I still walked the dog daily, but I’m still young (under 40) for now. I think this WuFlu causes far more long term damage than what is being met on or maybe even known at this stage.

          • If u had the real flu .. you wouldnt be able to lift your head off the pillow…very debilitating..had it once in Ireland , sick in bed for 4 days ..Terrible..I dread this one as Im older now..maybe you had Manflu? 😷🤔

          • I went to the doctor and had a swab taken that confirmed I had influenza. Definitely not just man flu. But I’m quite resilient to these things. When I had pneumonia I went to the doctor and he looked at me and asked how I felt. I said ok, just don’t want to work tomorrow. He said you should be in Hospital you have pneumonia. I have a pretty tough immune system in general, but yeah flu knocks you around for sure.

          • Thanks Gavin, the whole household is taking care. Mum saw a cardio specialist today on the peninsula and she said again she was the only person wearing a mask. I’m glad your brother seems to have found a lifestyle that suits him and I’m very glad that your mum was able to help him buy a place. Having that stability of ownership means so much! Mum, Dad and I have commented repeatedly we are so glad we got out of the suburbs in 88 after a trip around Australia in a 4wd and campervan, these 2 acres are an absolute godsend. Best wishes for you and your wife. I feel for all the pregnant women worldwide right now.

        • Locus of ControlMEMBER

          Interesting theory. I note that around the same time Spanish Flu was going around there was an epidemic of ‘sleepy sickness’ which also affected millions:

          https://www.thevintagenews.com/2018/02/03/sleepy-sickness/
          https://www.neurologytimes.com/blogs/encephalitis-lethargica-still-unexplained-sleeping-sickness

          No evidence that the two (Spanish Flu and ‘sleepy sickness’) were linked, neither is there evidence that they weren’t linked. Does make you wonder if one left you vulnerable to the other though.

          I don’t want Wuflu. Had a bad head cold/ flu infection in 2011 which was quite scary – my nose and throat were so inflamed that I couldn’t breathe lying down. I spent 36 hours awake and sitting up because that was the only way I could breathe. About six months after that cold I got post-nasal drip, which became chronic and turned into asthma. Subsequently had testing done in 2013 (which revealed severe allergies to dust mites and grass pollens) and was diagnosed with adult-onset asthma. Found a good doctor who got me onto a treatment program (sublingual immunotherapy – this is not cheap BTW – $1200 annually and required for three years!) which, with time, lessened the symptoms (I no longer suffer asthma) and residual symptoms are managed with (don’t laugh) Chinese herbal treatments (I’m impressed at how effective these have been – prior I had used every Western medicine under the sun – inhalers, corticosteroids, nasal sprays, antihistamines, none of which were half as effective as these herbs have been). However, I swear that flu episode in 2011 triggered the subsequent respiratory issues I experienced – I feel like my immune system overreacted at the time and then went after all the innocuous stuff too. Prior to that, I never had any breathing/ respiratory issues.

          Wishing you well Popcod. It sounds like you’ve done your best to accommodate your symptoms and adapt to the hand which has been dealt you, although I’ll warrant it sounds neither easy, nor without significant compromise. I always enjoy your contributions to this forum.

          • Thank you for your kind words! I know I go into a bit of detail that some might find unnecessary but until I was struck down with a debilitating chronic illness I didn’t understand any of the ramifications. This is a finance/economics blog and this type of ill health has massive financial implications on an individual, household and society wide level (and when I’m at work lifeguarding and I look at all the unhealthy people who use the centre I realise that I’m very functional despite it being a debilitating condition) I figure I’m doing a bit of a public service in shining a light on this segment of society.

            I certainly agree with the avoid Wuflu at all costs stance you have. It sounds like you’ve been through the wringer as well. Good luck and best wishes getting through this extremely difficult time. It is going to be a different world moving forward, I just hope this period of transition is not accompanied by too much upheaval.

    • agree – tomorrow off to chemist warehouse for stuffs tomorrow (note: protein powder glutamine etc ) then dans, gun shop, coles , bike shop , work, home then WFH

      What are you referring to specifically

  23. The Austrian, neoclassical and neo/new Keynesian converts is a sight to behold.

    I kid not as someone with thousands of hours wangling the lot over going on a few decades, dead set like the Red Sea parted and the only path to safety was everything they proselytized against since Hayek became a novelist.

    I do have a suggestion … everyone from the top of the ideological propaganda mill has to publicly denounce whatever barge of dreck they were payed to spew before getting any assistance as anti social parasites. Don’t want these sorts thinking they can resume business [tm] as usually post facto – too much rinse and repeat …

    Ethical – intellectual rigor means testing … has a certain je ne sais quoi about it … does it not.

  24. “Here’s what’s closing tomorrow
    From midnight tomorrow, restrictions will apply to the following services:

    Food courts in shopping centres but they will be allowed to serve takeaway
    Auction houses and auction rooms
    Open house inspections and auctions
    The states and territories will make a decision on markets. Food markets will be exempt
    Waxing salons, beauty salons, spa and massage parlours, nail salons. Health-related services are exempt
    Hairdressers and barbers can continue but with strict limitations on the number of people. Patrons should spend no more than 30 minutes there
    Amusement parks and arcades
    Indoor and outdoor play centres
    Community and recreation centres, health clubs, yoga studios, barre studios
    Bootcamps and outdoor personal training will be limited to 10 people and social distancing must be adhered to
    Swimming pools
    Large groups of people doing sporting activities outside, such as playing a game of soccer
    Galleries, libraries, youth centres, RSLs”

  25. Sooooooo….. What are the 1.6 million temporary residents going to do? They can’t leave with no flights (unfortunately…..) so… looks like the corona supplement and Centrelink will have to cover them…. Or what else? Mass crime? Grrrrr

    Labor’s immigration spokeswoman Kristina Keneally has called on the government to extend coronavirus support payments to immigrants to ensure they can afford to stay home if sick.

    “They could be left with no choice but to unknowingly spread the virus as they are forced to keep
    working or keep seeking work,” Senator Keneally said.

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        There are still significant numbers of international commercial flights entering and departing Australia and they are mainly passenger aircraft. They may well have extra cargo on them, but they wouldn’t be flying at the current frequency if they didn’t have significant numbers of passengers on them and there’s no way they are just “essential” people.

        Check out flightradar24 or similar for real time display. At this very moment, I can see multiple large airliners from Qatar Airways and Emirates have recently left Sydney and Melbourne on their way to Abu Dhabi, Singapore, Denpasar and Doha. International traffic globally is still at around 40-45% of pre-covid19 levels (apparently).

        • Yeah but airlines will not board you if you don’t have a visa for your end destination.

          And places like the UAE and Singapore tend not to let penniless Indians lob up without a visa even at the best of times. Less so when India is shut and there is bit of a virus about.

          Honestly I am willing to believe a large number of them are stuck here at present. Much as I wish it were otherwise.

          • adelaide_economistMEMBER

            I’m not doubting this is a disaster and there’s no way we can get rid of even a fraction of the temps regardless before things shut off. It may be for the best if our treacherous media bother to report on all the welfare they’ll be getting but somehow I think not. Story on ABC where every example of a ‘trapped’ foreigner they chose was a lily white Englander. What percentage would that be of the total? 1% at best? Funny how the ‘be representative’ imperative disappears when it suits. It’s clear to see the ‘narrative control’ at work in every aspect of our modern world when you look closely. As a taxpayer I’m getting more than slightly annoyed with constantly bailing out the fallout from rich people who benefit from this horde of cheap labour getting richer at my expense even in a crisis.

    • My bad, just saw Macrobusinesses article on this from today. I am FUMING! They should never have been allowed in without being able to support themselves – including in times of crisis. Now they will get welfare and medicare? Outrageous!!!!

    • Jumping jack flash

      After lockdown is announced for April then all the newly unemployed will be super busy preparing and/or delivering food to the rest of the population who weren’t allowed to board.

      • Locus of ControlMEMBER

        I’m actually thinking this might go the other way Timmeh. COVID seems to be taking out the oldies mostly – i.e. those people who have already slowed down and ceased partying. When this washes through, I’m expecting those who remain will be young and jubilant and looking to hit the shops, clubs and cinemas, etc. to make up for ‘lost time’ and to celebrate life/ surviving. Similar sort of effect to what you saw after both world wars.

        In short, I’m expecting a second ‘roaring 20s’ to follow. However, I’m a pessimist at heart – humanity is pushing up against some serious boundaries – climate change, devastating ecological destruction, unsustainable rates of consumption, potential resource shortages and ‘false (i.e. printed)’ wealth. We’re not self-sustaining. And I expect those things will start to ‘bite’ us as we move into the latter half of the 21st century. I console myself by saying I won’t have to personally worry about it – I expect to be dead by the 2070s. And I do believe humans will adapt. Potentially through depopulation, otherwise I reckon via a perceptible decrease in living standards.

  26. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Seems like mygov is down again. Didn’t they learn anything from the census? When it fails to load to first, people will continue to spam it, so it’ll get overwhelmed.

    There is a simple solution that is cheaper than expanding capacity : queue to login. This is implemented in every MMORPG. As long as there is a queue, people will not refresh the browser for fear of losing their place. Is Australian IT really that stupid?

  27. Jesus H. CHRIST

    But despite the range of further restrictions, Scott Morrison said the national cabinet would not “just rush on the sense of an opinion of inevitability” towards a full lockdown, because measures to contain the spread of the virus may yet prevent it and more severe action would threaten the livelihoods of many Australians.

    They’re actually going for the “herd immunity” option!

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      A hard lockdown like Wuhan/Italy means everything close down for a month, then they can restart. The incremental close down means everyone will be out of a job, as each industry get decimated and the lockdown continues for 6 months. Most business may survive close down for a month with support, but how many businesses can survive closing down for 6 months?

      It will both kill more Australians and make everyone unemployed.

      • Do not underestimate the power of the Moron Side of the Force. Usually the opposite of an obvious solution materializes.

        So…. we will incubate the coronavirus community-wide for 6 months and then export a mutated version back to the other hemisphere, only to import back another mutated version from the northern hemisphere in 12 months. Repeat this for several more cycles. This is how a merry-go-round works. Woooohoooo!!

  28. Ronin8317MEMBER

    2146 cases now, with NSW reporting 209 new cases. Number of new cases is 430.

    We will have 1000 new cases a day by this weekend.

    Can we have a military coup? Because Australia really needs one right now.

  29. Take from this what you will – the wife tells me her friends husband has been called up to the Royal Army. He has been out for about 9 months, in the reserves, but looking like at least 3 months duty.

  30. If you haven’t yet, join property investor groups like Property Road on Facebook and laugh at the content.

    There is NO WAY prices will fall. What do you mean 2 million unemployed? Pub workers aren’t unemployed, just temporarily not being paid indefinitely….

    LOL investors are thick as thieves.

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