Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar, ASX to the moon!

Groundhog day yet everyone? The ASX200 gapped over 8% lower on the open while other Asian indices oscillated wildly as the uncoordinated fiscal and monetary response to the coronavirus pandemic over the weekend has caused risk markets to have yet another epic day of volatility. Funnily enough the only sanity out there is currencies, with even gold and Bitcoin relatively calm as we await any progress in the US as fiscal stimulus remains stuck in Congress.

The Shanghai Composite is down over 2% after the lunch break at 2684 points while the Hang Seng Index is down nearly 4% currently at 21884 points:

Japanese share markets reopened after the long weekend with a surprising gap higher, the Nikkei 225 up 2.9% as the USDJPY  gaps down below the 110 handle after its big surge last week:

The ASX200 is having a bad day as I said at the open, in response to the Slomo and State shutdowns, as panic grips those under the age of 45 who’ve never experienced a recession. The index eventually closed nearly 6% lower at 4546 points. I reckon another 1500 points to go? Meanwhile the Aussie dollar was calm-ish, steady here at just below the 58 handle but looking very weak indeed:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures were both limit down following another disastrous press conference by Trump, with the four hourly S&P futures chart showing the 2100 point level about to come under threat – note however, this could shoot up extremely high if the Republican bailout plan is passed by the Senate. A temporary bounce though:

I want to look at one specific stock that I hope goes to zero. No, I’m not short this particular stock (I have some short hedges on the whole index) but Gerry Harvey deserves everything coming to him…down 44% so far. I’m sure those long lines of unemployed at Centerlink will be shopping there soon hey Gerry?

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Comments

    • I was going to get a new TV (current one is nearly 12 years old…little 40 inch plasma!) from Hardly Normal, but paraphrasing Darryl Kerrigan, “tell em to get stuffed.”
      I’ll buy one locally instead.

        • The olds are trying to get a new fridge from their points. Unfortunately we have fairly specific fridge requirements (can’t be larger than certain dimension and must be left hand opening) but they have at least started the -process of using their points by buying stuff.

          • @Gavin I think that is where we got the current fridge from. All I know is they’ve sent an email to the Qantas points place asking if the fridge can also be left hand opening and if it is, we will get a new fridge

          • I thought all fridges these days could be switched for left/right opening?! The three fridges I own are all different brands/sizes and all are switchable (ridiculous for a single person to own 3 fridges I know, but I make it work lol)

      • Screw buying a new one. Just check out facebook market place and pick up a relatively new 4k 55″ that some poor sod needs to sell. I thought I did quite well last month with a 40″ Sony smart tv for $120. Have seen bigger newer units selling around the $400 mark. Sure beats handing your money to JB or Gerry.

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      Realistically, no matter what happens, Gerry is going to die extremely wealthy and in the greatest possible comfort. Just like Highrise, he couldn’t get rid of it all if he tried. And neither of them will try, will they?

      • I dunno. One can still dream that Gerry’s propensity for hubris and bad investments will see him end up broke, against the odds, and MiBo’s ability with a handy lamp post will ensure his end is nothing like “comfortable” either…

        • yeborskyMEMBER

          In another life, I was in the liquidation/solvency business. I can tell you that, almost without exception, when and if Mr Big comes a cropper and the creditors come calling, the money is with Mrs Big or the Big family or the Big Family Trust or or some haven you can’t deal with. This actually applies more often than you would imagine at a fairly basic level – just the bloke down the road, you would think, but if it all goes pear-shaped and you want your money, suddenly, he doesn’t have any.

  1. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Gerry Harvey- the guy who 2.5 weeks ago said on 3AW it was just the flu and this would be over in a month…..so spend spend spend (especially in his stores) – ill informed ass.

  2. Ronin8317MEMBER

    321 new cases, bringing the total to 1674 cases today, so we will hit 2k tomorrow. Don’t see any sign of slowing down yet. By Friday we will be over 1k new cases each day.

    Seems like we won’t do the school closedown until we got 10k total cases. I expect ScoMo will then say ‘suckers, it is unstoppable now, you should just all die!!’ then reveal he is an alien tasked with killinh as many human as possible to pave the way for an extraterrestrial invasion.

  3. After the gym ban was introduced last night, I jumped on gumtree to try and find some stuff I could set up in the backyard. It seems like I wasn’t the only one with this idea..

    Called a bloke who had a massive pile of assorted gym crap – he mentioned I was about the 30th caller in the last 10 minutes ಠ_ಠ

    Jumped on eBay and saw price jacking all over the place and items were selling out within minutes. Absolute mayhem. It looks like it’s just overpriced and cheap/nasty stuff left. Anyone know where I can buy some cheap iron plates in SA?

    • This is a brilliant, easy to understand summary of our options to respond to the virus. I insisted my girlfriend read it too, and we sent it on to several friends.

    • Please also listed to this doctor in the UK.
      https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0877rxr
      Someone else posted it on the weekend, it shows how serious this thing is.

      Some people will have mild symptoms but for those who don’t (and we don’t know why some react worse than others) without the equipment they will die!

      He thinks death tally will be worse than WW2.

      • Actually the reason some people do badly is pretty simple immunology.
        It comes down to how much the virus replicates in your lungs, which depends on the speed and strength of immune response and the size of the infectious dose.
        Then the killer is if your immune system responds with an inappropriate TH2 response designed for fighting bacteria with infiltrating neutrophil cells that release toxic compounds, rather than a TH1 response that produces CD8 killer cells that target infected cells specifically.
        Both your immune response, and your ability to use the TH1 pathway decline with age. Zinc and Vitamin D deficiency contribute to TH1 dysfunction. Sleep is also critical for the early stages of fighting infection.

          • Vitamin D seems more critical in this case as it is directly tied to the development of ARDS if you are deficient. Sunlight is the best source, but daily low dose is also good. big one off doses have been shown to be ineffective in preventing respiratory virus illness.
            Vitamin C helps more with bacterial diseases, as is keeps your immune cells alive for longer by protecting them against the free radicals that form from the chemical toxins they release. If you get severe disease due to TH2 activation it may help lessen the symptoms and the potential for cytokine storms to take place. Also useful for preventing bacterial secondary infections.

        • Ermo mentioned the other day that he is dosing up on enchinacea, garlic, zinc and vitamin C tablets (from memory). Chemist Warehouse sells those tablets under the Cenovis brand. That with some regular taint tanning might possibly make it more of a contest.

          PS Thanks again Robert for your input.

          • Echinacea, Liquorice root and elderflower are the only 3 herbals that have shown effectiveness in human studies against respiratory virus. (But not SARS2) note liquorice and elderflower can mess around with your fluids. I go the ACE zinc echinacea tablets from Blackmores. I start popping them when I feel run down and they make a huge difference to the severity of colds.

  4. Does anyone know if there is a Yen ETF on the ASX? I have been unable to find one.

    I know there is a Euro ETF, EEU, which bought some of today.

    I also bought some PMGOLD today, to hedge against the USD and fiat in general.

  5. anyways.. someone that works with my wife dropped off my wife’s headphones (my wife’s been working from home) and they both happily chatted at the door for 20min.. >1/2m away from each other. I was raging.. then my wife walks in my room and asked me why I did not say hi to her girlfriend when I saw them on my way to get a drink. Still fuming..

    we are so fckd.. so fckd.

    • saw that in the morning.. interesting indeed.
      she is posting some good stuff on oil but she is totally delusional on geopolitics and she claims geopolitics to be her forte.

  6. That $1100 per fortnight dole why don’t we make it a susso payment.

    Open some mask and sanitiser factories and get them working in them for their susso payments.

    A mask and sanitiser led recovery.

    • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

      Yeesh, is it wrong that I guessed the surnames (or close to) before opening the article ?.

      Maybe I am becoming one of those xenomorphs….

        • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

          “What the f— are we gonna do now, man?! We’re in some pretty s— now, man. Game over man. GAME OVER”.

          Hudson was an awesome character.

          Would be great if someone could overlay this bit on Scomo’s face. Probably exactly what is going on behind closed doors in Canberra.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          It’s harder robbing houses when people are home.
          And the robbers in question are probably queuing for centrelink’s doubled newstart benefit as we speak.

          I’m sure normal service will resume shortly.

  7. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Just back from Jack & Winnie’s walk, met a business owner. He had rental properties and the gym tenant just gave notice. My advice reduce your debt his reply was that he’s getting more in dept.

  8. if we avoid infection over the next 8 weeks and things start calming down from there onward, we will be fine. But next 8 weeks we will need to be careful and very very lucky.
    and I really need gold price to be trading at $3k usd soon. with aud at 46c.

      • mate, those intercepts would have set them up on fire if we were under normal trading conditions. I did buy more today.. fck it.
        I’ll hold for 6-24 months if I have to. Tow more diamond hose been drilled to the south and will be coming out in Apr. Looking at older RC drills both diamond drills will hit the body and should be solid. I just hope ALK uses more gentle angle so they can test more at depth.
        It is clear that this ore body dips north-west as per their comments so if they test at strike to the north they will have to go for deeper holes, Otherwise they will only scrap the Au halo and the very top of the second shell of the porphyry.
        On the south side it seems ore body is very near the surface.
        Next stage they will need to test the eastern boundary so they will have to drill from west to east. But first we need to wait for last 2 drills from the south.
        Be patient and if I am right we will make some money on this one. Or you will curse me for rest of your life. lol

        Unless NCM makes a move while ALK is on its knees and scoops them at 80c.

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          Thanks, I agree, I’m also balls deep in AQX unfortunately, and now also ALK, I’m just gunna wait it out like you said. Put these aside and next could be oil, massive, massive sell off there

  9. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Good to see the gubmint on the ball. The VicEmergency app just now informed me off a pandemic in the state and gave some handy advice.

    Kinda woulda thought something may have popped up before this.

  10. Doesn’t bode well….
    ” Sir Richard Branson penned a blog post last night to confirm he would be investing $250m to save his Virgin conglomerate from collapse”
    “…procedural vote fails on $1.8 trillion package in Senate; talks continue”

  11. no skippy today and all his no meaning posts
    also reusa seems hiding
    peachy comes out when the topic is matching her predictions
    coming is the Pascometer
    who else should be added?

    • Sorry if day traders think ex ante ideology is economics, or something, not to mention the money cranks ….

      I’m working still and have to prepare for my daughter returning from Banff due to shut down and quarantine.

      Don’t you have some day trader boot strapping to keep you busy Gone, you know the numbers that frame reality in some minds, if you can call it that.

      PS … oh and comments are in the ZH range so not much to work with there … all quivering in the expectations of a collapse and its requisite rise from the ashes to rule ….

      • People play in the Casino and then pout about being reminded of it …

        Come on Gav … My mother was rookie trader of the year before I was even born, drove a Lincoln convertible, dad was a computer engineer for BoA back in the 60s. People asleep for decades is not my bad, neither is the wonky ideology some mistake for economics. Not like half the rubbish was refuted decades ago but some thought we [they] still needed it.

        Its like cutting off pudding in the jail mess hall and the residents having a sad.

        Watching people cling to beliefs contra to everything happening around them is a thing to behold. Usually the point of departure for me do to risk factors. On that note most don’t even understand the difference between uncertainty and risk to start with.

        I’m MMT – post Keynesian and all the literature is there for anyone to reconcile for themselves …. but naw … focus is on individuals.

        My fav is those fiddling with Jr gold miners ….. chortle … due diligence … snicker …

        I helped put one guy here in Qld in jail – https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/02/scammers-behind-virgin-gold-mining-corporation-bit-off-chew.html

  12. Well I upped my survive the apocalypse skills today. Went for a drive to try and find a place that usually advertises chooks on a major road nearby. All signs in front of small farms advertising what they usually sell were no where to be seen. However still a lot of horse poo on sale. Wonder how long that will last for? I saw some fruit on the road and pulled over and collected about 4kg of pears growing on a massive pear tree on council land (I didn’t pick the fruit that was over the boundary fence so I probably need to up my ruthlessness but I just couldn’t do it, I’m not really the monster Harry calls me). I then remembered seeing a lady picking fruit up from that tree about 3 weeks earlier before I broke my toe. I got about 2kg of eatable fruit and the rest went into the pot and has now been deliciously stewed. I also stripped a basil bush that was going to seed and I made pesto for the first time. So I now have a large jam jar full of home made pesto. The things you can do with time.

    One of my junior gold miners announced a very positive maiden drill result on ground just outside of Perth and closed up 137% so I’m a happy chappy, though I know it’ll go back down, but it now at it’s highest level since 2012, and it is fully funded. Today I had a couple of wins which was nice.

      • i’m not sure it could be called the nature strip as it is in a semi rural area, but the Mornington Peninsula used to be a massive orchard area before the UK joined the European trading block and stopped buying Aussie fruit. Most of the orchards got ripped out (which is a shame) and it is now more vineyards (which means more pesticides and less insects) and some other specialty farming (livestock, veggies and herbs). I swear this tree was 3 storeys tall and probably 80 years old. I might go back with Dad and a ladder later as most of the easily reachable fruit had been gone. It was obviously an orchard escapee what had been left alone. I’m now thinking a bit of strategic driving to find other trees like it may be a good idea (I’ve been housebound for 3 weeks now). When I was working at a cafe in a town about 10km away we would get all these older Greek migrants come down and pick mushies on the side of the road at the right time of the year. We’ve got a few growing at home, but I’m rather cautious about picking wild mushrooms (though I do remember my brother swearing he picked the right ones and dried them in the oven one year and had his own party).

    • When I make a batch of pesto, I break it up into meal size containers and freeze it.
      Sometimes goes a bit weird if you don’t eat it fast enough otherwise.
      The other great freebie around often is rocket- self seeds everywhere, and sometimes parsley.

      • I’m leaving it out for a night so the flavours can mingle then I will freeze portions. It was quite a labour intensive process so I do not want to lose any to mould! I am planning on making a ricotta pesto ‘gnocchi’ (no potato involved) tomorrow night with a garlic naan, so that’ll be two new recipes to try out tomorrow night. We’ve got 2 fruit boxes of spuds about ready to be harvested, but I’m not sure if they are the right ones for real gnocchi, but I want to try making gnocchi too. I made an awesome potato and onion with blue cheese soup the other night 🙂

          • I know we have an awesome mortar and pestle but it is never used and I couldn’t find it (it’s not my kitchen). I’m the major cook/baker in the family and when I moved back I kind of made some noises about how it would be nice to have a food processor that worked. The olds went out and bought one, and actually spent a little bit of money on it. We can’t get the fcking thing to work. I swear to g0d you can not take the top off the bl00dy thing even IF you read the instructions. So I used our chopper bought from a Tibetan town in Qinghai for RMB7 a decade ago (Dad LOVES that knife) on the garlic and then a stick blender thingie on a massive amount of basil. Needless to say it was a tiresome and extremely messy process. I used a Jamie Oliver recipe cos it was the first one that came up when I searched for a pesto recipe and it seemed like a decent recipe. I did not pay attention to quantities (I rarely do, I prefer to let instinct and thought guide my cooking and baking, which is dangerous). I’ll taste test tomorrow and make adjustments before freezing if necessary. I was careful to make sure I picked mainly the greenest leaves and on the stems that had gone to seed I tried to get the most fragrant leaves as I know once it goes to seed all the energy goes out of the leaves and into the seed head.
            https://www.jamieoliver.com/recipes/vegetables-recipes/pesto/
            I did not put any lemon juice in even though I harvested some from the top of the tree yesterday (with a metal rake, I was pleased with my lemon harvesting problem solving skills as normally we just leave the lemons at the top of the tree but they were the only ripe ones and the ladder wasn’t stable), I was a bit tired toward the end of my kitchen session and couldn’t be bothered with lemon juice.

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      Hiya, Pop,
      In the early 90’s, I did a couple of years of Italian language at night school. Il Professore was a nice bloke from Genoa, the home of this recipe. A few of the class got together near Christmas to celebrate our learning and wonderful pronunciation skills etc and, while we all contributed, Dante cooked a traditional pesto, which was outstanding. He emphasised that quite small cubes of potato were always in the mix – just slightly firm, thrown into the water a little while before the pasta was al dente. It works!

      • Mmm sounds yummy. I’ll keep that in mind. I did a risotto class in Beijing with a Tuscan bloke who went on to open a restaurant in NYC. Boy that mushroom risotto is divine. I’m sure you had a great time in your language class. I’m actually planning to start learning Italian online, perhaps in a week or two. That’ll be some of my self isolation intellectual stimulation. Watching the markets tank is getting a bit boring.

    • My survival skills took a big blow today.They had sold out of old el paso nacho sauce and all the good flavours of shapes at the local Woolies. For some reason no one has cottoned onto peanut butter. But I’ve already got that covered. A 100 pack of Twining’s Earl Grey was half price. Yes please. Pasta shelf was bare. Meh. All the UHT milk was gone. Even the soy. Home brand oats and bran is gone. And the tinned tomatoes. I didn’t make it as far as the TP isle. I was chatting to another young bachelor in front of the mexican section. He too was sad that the nacho sauce was gone.

      Bonus gripe!!!!!
      People have stated using paper towels and tissues and things when opening door handles and they just drop them on the ground. That’s why we don’t deserve nice things Australia. Because we are basically flightless bin chickens. Now I’m off to watch some Mel Brooks. He’ll make everything better for 90 minutes or so.

  13. pajjer457MEMBER

    Before Melb Uni announced the shutdown a rumour was being spread that Dan was in the VC’s ear forcing their hand to close shop. There appeared to be a remarkable amount of inertia to do much otherwise. Family working there had already stopped going in and was pretty p1ssed that it took so long.

  14. I think I’ve had the wuflu. Dry sore throat, heavy feeling chest, mild fever, headaches, fatigue which all came and went over a 12 day period. Wife and children experience same.

    Saw doc in car park as he wouldn’t see me inside. He suspected wuflu but couldn’t test as no confirmed contacts.

    Now recovered, but how many thousands are out there who are the same? This thing will explode in the next fortnight.

  15. “ Worst since 1932′: Two million Aussies face unemployment queue”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/worst-since-1932-two-million-aussies-face-unemployment-queue-20200323-p54d14.html

    “ The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has spoken to senior sources in both the banking and forecasting sectors who said their analysis showed Australia was headed for an unemployment rate of 15 per cent or more. It currently stands at 5.1 per cent.
    A source who could not be named for commercial-in-confidence reasons said unemployment at that level would see more than two million Australians out of work. It would be the highest jobless rate since 1932.
    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg would not be drawn on unemployment projections on Monday but said up to one million people could be paid the special coronavirus payment, which will go to existing and new recipients of unemployment support. This includes sole traders. The hospitality sector alone employs more than 10 per cent of Australians.”

    Fark that’s a lot of people.

    Mortgage broker told me today the banks ain’t giving mortgages to people in the hospitality sector no more.

    • Here’s the best bit… adults in charge!

      ” The unemployed will get a $750 payment from March 31, but they will have to wait until April 27 before a special $550 a fortnight virus supplement is available for those on the Jobseeker payment.
      Minister for Government Services Stuart Robert said the timing was a matter for policy ministers, including Mr Frydenberg and Social Services Minister Anne Ruston. Mr Frydenberg’s office said it was a matter for Senator Ruston. Senator Ruston’s office said it was a matter for Mr Robert.”

          • If I were you, I’d keep schtum! Deep down you know you caused this… you and Timmeh! Just couldn’t hold your cash, you had to buy.😂😂

          • Farken h3ll. We just asked for aus housing msrket to crash. You broke the world. That was a bit on the much side …

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Yeah, when the wiki page is up for the Greatest Depression, it’ll just be a picture of Tom Cruise dressed as the Kinks sitting in a Nissan Fairlady in the driveway to a mud brick home.

          • I’ve always been the type of guy who likes to do a job properly, no half arsed stuff. Just do it right the first time. I figured a global reset was the only way. 🤣

    • innocent bystander

      yep.
      I used to only watch it when I jagged it
      now I record it.
      Now that the SHTF one has to have sorted their reliable news sources.
      I am finding it is like when a bushfire hits, all sorts of rubbish info floods the news waves, you need to know what to ignore and what to take notice of.

  16. If Trump opens up the US again and people says goodbye to grandparents in their millions as the virus lets rip why would the rest of the world engage with any travel/trade w/ Trump’s infested hellhole?

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