Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Finally, some steady gains across the region, following the lead from overnight stock markets. The USD reversed course as a series of events including a big jump in projected US unemployment and proposed lockdowns in California. The RBA started their QE program today while the PBOC continues to weaken the Yuan, although offshore trading slumped in the wake of the temporarily weak USD, along gold which is stabilising.

The Shanghai Composite is up nearly 0.5% going into the lunch break at 2714 points while the Hang Seng Index is up nearly 3%, taking back yesterday’s losses, currently at 22318 points:

Japanese share markets were closed for the vernal equinox (WTAF?) and trading in  USDJPY was light on until that sharp USD retracement late in the session, bringing the pair back down out of bubble like territory to just above the 110 handle:

The ASX200 is having a solid day, up nearly 2% going into the close at 4875 points while the Aussie dollar is gyrating wildly, currently just below the mid 58 cent level vs USD as it struggles to find a bottom after the recent epic rout:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up slightly but the four hourly S&P futures chart still looks extremely weak with not much buying activity here to get excited about:

Have a great weekend – indoors! Oh BTW – I found a spare toilet paper roll in my office bathroom this morning! 3 PLY! Little things make us cheery don’t they? Stay safe.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    When is the Government going to save lives by closing our Schools!

    “Today we hit 692 cases & we’re still not doing enough testing. Italy had 650 cases on Feb 27. Today they hit 35,713 & hospitals are over run. Doctors on the front lines are pleading with our leaders to shut everything down. Why won’t they listen?”

    • 27th March was the date for shutdown in the west a couple weeks back, effectively giving a 4 week school holiday (that will turn into a 10 month holiday). I would think there’s some co-ordination nationally to have schools close on the same date.

        • They are aiming to scrape through to the end of term 1. School break gives time to rejig curriculum to deliver online, and ensure students are ready to work from home.

          They will have to scrap Naplan. Assessment for VCE/HSC will be a nightmare.

        • It seems like they’re holding off for something right now. An extended school holidays minimises the disruption. The government really thinks they everything be back to normal in another month or two.

          • Census date for Uni is 29 March, if the Government shut schools and Uni’s before then, the Uni’s have to refund the international students their course fees.

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            I vote with Fish. This is so they can keep the uni’s open long enough to have all their students on the hook for the Semester 1 fees. I made a bet with my family about a month ago they will close the schools and unis on April1 or 2. So far so good. 🙂

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            I really don’t know how true the university theory is but I’m telling it to absolutely everyone to incite maximum hatred against our leader.

            I want this bloke marched out at the point of a bayonet.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Oh yeah, I can do that. I was a tradie back when I was just a drunken bogan.

            Electric lawnmower. Lovey says she had to come inside today because of some thoughtless bastard fouling the air with his petrol mower. Was most irate at her yard being out of bounds. Does her noticing mean the air is cleaner since everything started winding down?

          • Well if they’re using treasury or RBA to forecast then I’m sure they don’t understand exponentials and only ‘gentle turning points returning us to trend’. We are doomed, they are deluding themselves the measures they have put in place are working. We are still on the exponential growth curve and it’s asymptotic transmission that’s powering this thing which the chief medical officer doesn’t event admit exists….not to even mention the lack of testing for community transmission.

          • Asymptomatic? They still refuse to test even if someone is symptomatic. In the media conference today the chief medical officer said they will now start testing people if they are admitted to hospital with pneumonia. My understanding is that typically pneumonia sets in some days / maybe even a week or so after other symptoms first become obvious. But until they are sick enough to be admitted to hospital with pneumonia they will not be tested. And then he noted that some other countries appear to be under-reporting.

          • University of Canberra’s census date has been and gone as have many other uni’s. Heard ANU as deferred theirs until the mid-semester however.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      Presumably they are waiting until everyone gets fired so that they’ll already be at home and able to look after the kids when the schools close.

      As opposed to closing the schools down and requiring everyone to stop working and looking after them, thus being the “cause” of everyone getting fired.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        In the spirit of nothing being his fault, I’m sure I heard Scummo say today that the budget will be delayed until October.

        Is he hoping he’s dead by then or the rest if us will be?

        • haroldusMEMBER

          Get fvcked you cant delay the budget.

          Fvck off scomo, he’s lucky there’s no election this year.

        • Correct, budget delayed until October. Watch how many times Morrison says carp like “based on professional medical advice” you know this xiunt will hose these people quicker when it all turns to sh1t than I could ever hoped to pull a cone.

      • Have you changed your mind on job guarantee?

        How would it work now?

        Trust Scummo to run it?

    • That’s just over 20 days behind Italy as that virologist stated the other day. 20. Days.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Trump and Johnson might by sheer weight of money they can throw at the fallout, but little old Straya under Scotty from Marketing – dead, buried and cremated (hat tip to Tony Abbott and no pun intended)?

      • That’s the great thing about this crisis – a drink is justified just about all the time 😉

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Dog help me, I never thought I would say these words, but Trump looks agile compared to Scovid, and that ol buffoon BJ frequently sounds statesmen like and sensible vs the conflicting dribble that Scovid spews. I will admit the bar is way lower than I could have ever imagined, but even so – EZFKA’s leaders are the (western) world most awful. urrrrrgh.

    • Depends who I’m arguing with – Kafka or Voltaire.

      Good to see the world is watching us in action – just another reason NOT to come in future. Struggling to think what ScoMo’s legacy will be at this point.

  2. Mining BoganMEMBER

    We’ve hit the top 20! We’ve jumped over Portugal in the infected stakes but that may change again overnight. China still way in front but appear disinterested. Canada and Malaysia are in our sights and Japan will be overtaken in a few days.

    Once again our plucky little nation is punching above its weight. Brings a tear to the eye.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Gold is a long way away but surely with Scummo’s leadersh!t a top ten position is possible if maximum ineptness is deployed. South Korea I’m confident will fall down the rankings, and one would think the Scandinavian nations are smart enough to pull out when hurt.

        It will be a long, hard road but one Scummo says as Strayans we must take.

      • Nah mate, don’t you remember last weekend, the virus does not work on weekends only during the week, everyone should get out and attend a auction, you don’t even need to have a job to have mortgage now

  3. We pay soldiers going to war zones $150 a day extra and make their income tax free while in the AO.

    Should we not be doing the same for teachers now? I mean, you are more likely to die from Covid19 than a Taliban insurgent.

  4. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    LOL re. vernal equinox (WTAF?)

    It’s the same as when they read we have a day off for Moomba or the Melbourne Cup.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Or you know… A footy grand final. I know my US colleagues are in awe of our ‘any excurse for a day off’ long weekends.

  5. CBA: All of our home loan customers will be able to pause their repayments for up to six months should they need to.

    They know they can’t foreclose without destroying themselves.

      • Maybe renters should just stop paying. The authorities will be too busy to evict you. You’ll get to live rent free for a year or two.

        • Sure… let them come for an inspection and 2 days later go into quarantine and tell them!

          • They also advised all tenants with routine inspections now had to do it for the real estate virtually by either video chat or checklist with photos. Can’t believe they’re being so rigid on the rules. Funny thing is they haven’t given me an inspection in a year (not sure if landlord said don’t bother or they’ve just forgotten me). If they ask me to do virtual I’m just going to play a luddite and say I don’t have the equipment or capabilities lol

    • jonathan grant

      Same here. Just be careful. If you check the last time these market conditions prevailed during the GFC there can be quite rapid 10% pull backs. i think we now stand at 8.
      Who is your broker by the way. I fret about actually getting paid.

    • Jonathan Grant, Andynyc. I also have a lot of money with my Forex broker now after some good short trades and I am concerned about counterparty risk. My broker is Vantage FX. In every way over the last few years they have been straight-up and efficient. Totally no complaints. Now I will find out if I can get my money out. Will do a test withdrawal Monday next week and report mid-week how it goes. Would greatly appreciate if others tried same with their brokers and reported. Arty

      • jonathan grant

        I’m with the bucket shops, cmc markets, and Oanda. The last couple of weeks I have withdrawn a substantial amount from XM and it has been instant no problems. I think this thing can go downhill fast though. The way the market is going today though I may not have to make anymore withdrawals. This is brutal.

    • When reported cases of Covid-19 keep doubling every few days. I’m pretty sure $AUD will keep sinking. If reported cases slow. I would stop shorting.

      • jonathan grant

        So do I want corona to keep increasing and become a millionaire? Or do I want this thing to go away and be broke again? Not much good having money in Mad Max world and don’t want to see hospitals overflowing but it ain’t my fault this whole country is so irresponsibly run. If you’re right Gavin, unfortunately I am probably gonna end up a millionaire the way things are going. At least in TP AUD terms.

  6. Ran out of toilet paper and having to use lettuce leaves.
    Today was the tip of the iceberg.

  7. I’m a member of a tradie facebook page, mainly for the laughs as they’re almost as un-PC as we are here. Plus they post some absolute dodgy shit (i’m not a tradie, just a casual observer and when I was young I was the labourer/son of a builder). There was a discussion there about work drying up, lots of talk about jobs for the next few months being cancelled, pipeline work disappearing etc.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      I dunno, but given their “who could have predicted this” response to the bushfires, it seems plausible and likely.

    • Even if it was as late as mid-January he still did f/a. A psychotic disregard for human life to try and save a small part of the economy, which has resulted in an economic catastrophe.

    • I think was yesterday or the day before I was spewing my guts here arguing about shortage of testing kits. The moment Sout Korea, Japan and Singapore got hit we should have acted. Every politician should be tried for treason – let the army take over.

      • The treason of opening our borders from 1965 to 2019 far outweighs any treason over a virus.
        The former destroyed our nation permanently, the latter just cost a few lives.
        The latter like losing a battle, the former like losing a war.

  8. Anyone here have any thoughts on how they’ll open up super for withdrawals ?

    I think it is certainly coming.

    And where are our W. Swan cheques?

    I’ve still kept my stub for posterity.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Hardship provisions are already there. It’s just the numbers that need tweaking.

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      I think they will, but superfunds will need to sell equities for them to cash out so…
      call me cynical but a lot of these hardship cases (mortgages, business loans, renters etc) will have a lot of hoops to jump thru and loops to navigate to qualify. Political PR followed by expense(budget) amelioration.

  9. beyond believe. White House is trying to stop unemployment numbers from being published.

  10. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Qld premier telling Queenslanders not to go to the pub tonight which probably is a good thing, however hospitality industry may as well throw in the towel and shut with as much money as they can, in a week Sydney will probably be a ghost town seeing as some fcking geniuses let a cruise boat with 2700 people on it into the city – dumbest fkn country on the planet, we fkn deserve scum Morrison

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      Couldn’t believe my own eyes when I read that a little earlier. So virus carriers/infected are OK off ships but not planes. FMD. Someone should go to gaol for this act of absolute blind stupidity.

        • Yeah it’s astounding that this line repeated trotted out without question. The testing criteria prevents anyone that could have caught Covid19 from community transmission from being tested. Then we hear the PM and premiers say there is no community transmission, all cases are traced to international arrivals etc. next week will be when the numbers surge as the doubling from 1K to 2K to 4K etc…

          • 1 thing you have to admire about natural disasters and a pandemic. Is that both don’t give 2 sh1ts about marketing spin.

          • Sccomp is using the bushfire strategy…
            1. neglect the fire front as long as possible, then commit all resources to containment lines once the flames are 100m high.
            2. Ignore embers at all costs. Let new fires roar behind your very good containment lines
            3. Blame labor

          • Ah, watch for ‘spontaneous corona cases’ as an equivalent to ‘self igniting piles of manure’

    • Bloomberg has the vampire squid forecasting that hospitality spending will drop by at least 50%, and that the 2020 GDP will drop 6%. Stangely, they reckon that reportable unemployment will only get up to just over 8% (they must be picking sh!tloads of underemployment). Worst conditions since the great depression they predict. Likely that Goldmans is talking their book and are positioned for any panic but still …. so not so much a recession, more a depression.

      • Yeah out you have an uber driver account you are employed. If you don’t do any hours it’s because you are lazy.

      • Only if they’re povo refugees arriving in clapped out fishing boats. The LNP are more than happy to accept diseased immigrants and tourists to arrive by plane or cruise liner. That is far more becoming.

    • Maybe that was in response to footage of Australians flying back today to be greeted with hugs and a quick trip to the pub with mates. I remember a previous long term plan with self isolation in it. I must have been dreaming.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      I would have to redesign it to your satisfaction of extremely slow and painful.

  11. had 2 shots of Rakija. Now will start on wine or beer.. Salmon and green salad for dinner.

    • Any suggestions on good varieties of Rakija and where to get? I know there is different styles but am yet to try it.

          • I only trust 3 people in the whole country. These guys make better stuff than anything you can buy in any shop. But they make for themselves only and don’t sell. Each year they throw couple of bottles my way for free. These guys have been making it since they were teenagers learning from their fathers and their fathers from their fathers..
            I would not buy from any privateer.

        • Well, IIRC, noobs at distilling alcohol for fun and profit have to learn first the difference between methanol and ethanol. Many fail, with horrendous consequences….

        • Thanks for the tip Niko. I’ll give it a bash if I can find it local. I know it from Croat mates mainly. Went to dinner at an Italian’s mate place and his dad had home made grappa, it was pretty decent for home made. One of the best spirits I ever had was some type of brandy so must get round to trying.

      • just to add it is made from grapes. Serbians and Croats make really good stuff from plums but it’s too weak for me.

        The one I recommend you drink it with green salad before dinner or lunch. One shot only recommended but me and my mates have finished bottles..
        If you intend to switch to something else after drinking Rakija, best thing is beer. Beer actually will cancels it and you can continue on the beer all night.. if you are in that mode.
        Do not go to wine – mark my words – especially if you had more than 2 or 3 shots.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            I have a mango port from cairns (it’s a present) let’s just say when you want guests to leave bring it out

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Geez, that mango wine from the tablelands is horrible stuff. I poured mine down the sink just in case I was hopelessly drunk and drank it out of desperation.

          • Nah not that… was thinking about fermenting it and then distilling the alcohol out of it. The dregs are then used as fertilizer. The distillate ought to be like the plum brandy of other places …

          • yep. that’s how you make grappa. and can make it from any fruit.
            or brandy – same thing.

          • Yes, but I was wondering if the mango aroma would carry into the finished product….

          • yes it does. I can tell if I drink Rakija made of grapes, plums, pear or peach. Aroma still stays.

    • That sounds a tad healthy for a Friday night, Niko, especially with all that grog. I like comfort food on the weekend – maybe something sensible on Sundays.

  12. Any word on how the sqm distancing advice from the PM will relate to slumdog accommodation for students?

    Surely the 2 bed apartments with 34 coolie occupants is too much?

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Harry – have been wondering myself when we might see unfriendly vessels off Sydney heads?

      • if/when they turn up MSM will describe them as the friendliest of them all. And as long as Xi promises house prices to the moon they will be welcomed by the bogans with open arms. People will be throwing flowers at them.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        *Wanders into the kitchen, “what’s in the fridge?”
        *Drink until 2.00am, “No meetings”

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Keep all this drink talk away from Ermo’s eyes, he’s hopefully on the wagon and still on his health kick

          • haroldusMEMBER

            At some undefined stage in the future, I’m going to need to come over so you can show me how to work out if that’s OK with you.

            You saw my frame, still a bit of muscle, in my 20s had a bit of definition.

            Not a total weakling now, having sand kicked in my face. But lost a lot.

          • Lol this should be good. I’m sure Boom will be impressed by your massive forearms. Must be all that left handed mouse practice.

    • I’ve not heard of a fat vegan before. Is there such a thing as vegan junk food? Just curious.

  13. In a crisis, everyone’s for MMT. Even Ken Rogoff.

    “I mean, there’s never been a concern about our government’s defaulting. The concern is being able to borrow massively when you need to. That’s the whole point of saving for a rainy day. When it rains, you want to really open up the floodgates.

    And, here, I just — there’s no limit. We’re in a war. You have to win the war. I would have no problem with the government debt magically going up $5 trillion in the blink of an eye, if we could get out of this in two or three months healthily.”

    Convert [!!!!!!] …. repent later … best line in the whole movie …

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Though It was funny at first it’s getting a bit tiresome now.
          BTW the song uses 3 x Skippyeee’s not 2.
          Just saying

      • Difference Dom is I’m not – for – MMT, its not some choice I make under various circumstances, its the way it works and no its not cookie cutter monetary theory – bit more complex.

      • It’s not a policy , it’s a theory

        And it’s about to be proven correct when the government airdrops money, and the central banking/bond market smoke and mirror show gets exposed

        • Please read Coming ….

          PK MMT argues that MMT has been around for awhile see Rumsly. Confusion is that ad hoc administration by Monetarist and now the quasi variant is all for ideological and political reasons.

          Would also point out the complete academic coup of orthodox economics and Nobel boobie prizes to ensure dominance.

          Look all it says is resources are the linchpin for the economy moving – forward – not bloody money … everything else is a choice.

          • ‘New economic perspectives’ — smells the same as ‘New Miracle Diet’

            Economic laws are as old as time itself, skip. They are immutable.

        • It’s a policy which is correct in extreme circumstances.
          eg. When the natural rate is significantly negative, money demand explodes and employment is collapsing.
          btw. old Keynesians would recommend exactly the same policy now they just wouldn’t call it MMT.

          • Old Keynesians – Keynes took exception to them so the point is – ?????

            Keynes started[!!!!!!] a project and never intended it to become a cult.

            Natural [tm] rate … sigh

            You mean Milton’s quasi gold standard E.g. invoking Keynes and then bastardizing with neoclassical is not what Keynes was on about, no more than in ill health trying to sort out the system have bancor bastardized by the yanks. But yeah Money.

          • Seriously Sweeper why ….

            I understand pfts issues, but why persist in this faux Keynesian [neo] garb considering the events … unethical just to start with and for some immoral … for what …. an antiquarian narrative – ????? – really ….

            How some might be remembered ….

  14. The United States is facing a grim dilemma: either effectively shut down society for months to prevent transmission of the coronavirus or see health care systems overwhelmed by people needing treatment for severe infections.

    That’s the conclusion of a influential new analysis by a well-respected group at Imperial College London that does computer simulations of outbreaks.

    Its findings put policymakers in a bind as they think about how to move forward in the weeks ahead when there’s no vaccine or proven treatment.

    “The take-home message of that Imperial College model is that in order to keep from overwhelming the health care system with severe cases, we are going to have to have very tight controls in place on transmission through social distancing. And those controls are going to be so tight that they will be economically and socially very damaging,” says Marc Lipsitch, an expert on infectious disease modeling at Harvard University.

    “There’s no really good option that doesn’t involve at least one of those two problems,” he added. “And in fact, both could happen if we aren’t very careful about how we manage things.”

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Head in the sand is a false analogy. Ostriches don’t put their heads in the sand to ignore reality – quite the opposite, they are trying to pick up soundwaves travelling faster

      • Hope you’re eating brownies, you really should be looking after your lungs right now.
        The phase and level difference in sound waves arriving at each ear is how sound is located. This is based on the speed of sound in air.
        Sound travels faster in most solids and liquids, thereby changing the phase and level information at the ear. Try sticking a bucket on your head and then locating a sound source.

    • you have to stop thinking that Scumo is trying to resolve the problem but just doesn’t know how. Try with Scumo knows how bad this is and then you will come to the right conclusion.
      In regards to Trump he is just plain stupid and his advisors played him in order to bring him down.

    • If scovid honestly thought that letting kids stay away from school would cause an unacceptable shortage of health workers he would just not cancel school, he would cancel the school holidays (not as if they can go anywhere during the holidays).

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Although my missus just pointed out in response to my rant “vacation care for holidays”

        • Tell her, it is not a legal requirement to send your kids to vacation care, it is a legal requirement to send them to school. Noone will send them to vacation care if they are not wanting to send to school right now

  15. Would be good if we had world class broadband internet right now… I think this guarantees that productivity will grind to a halt.

    Streaming companies such as Netflix and Stan have been asked by communications minister Paul Fletcher to consider reducing the amount of data required for streaming videos over the internet as the national broadband network tries to cope with large swathes of the population working from home.

    • “reducing the amount of data required” how is he the communications minister? the only way they can do that is disable to ability to stream at certain definitions, they can’t magically make the size smaller while retaining definitions or they would actively be doing that.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        And off dodgy memory, the Comms Minister in a former life worked for Optus and Malcolm made one of his fortunes out of being a part owner of Ozemail, one of the first internet providers in Straya and probably should have known better when he blessed us with his better, sooner, cheaper version of the NBN. On the other hand, who knows where we might be up to with KRudd’s FTTP version?

    • BoomToBustMEMBER

      Dumb. Don’t need to do this, Netflix for example has rack mounted caching servers it deploys to ISP’s, a few more of these and free IX between ISP’s and problem solved.

  16. When the footage of people being welded into their homes and robots spraying the streets of Wuhan was released, that was the time to close the borders in Australia.

    I can’t believe it has come to this – but also, I can.

  17. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Had a desk for sale on gumtree ……been there a fair while ……suddenly everyone wants it ……lots of iffices being set up in the spare room
    ……all for the lease signs on the pacific highway at Chatswood I mentioned a wee while back could be about to spread ……….

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      ….and only the Indians ask ….are you negotiable ?
      … I love multiculturalism…,,

      • I just mark up the price higher to start with, let them “beat me down” a bit and they leave happy with my old sh!t.

  18. So we’ve taken the kids out of school and started to “isolate” as a family. Just keep to ourselves but still go to the beach and ride bikes with the kids. Just no school, no play dates, etc. The in-laws think we are freaks and are mighty pi*#ed off……am I a bad person for thinking this virus is ok given the fact we won’t spend time with them for a while? (and if Alan Jones or Murdoch don’t make it that’s just a bonus)……

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      Whirrrr buzzz beep beep beep whiiiirrr. (Carry on exactly as you are, C3PO.)
      And it breaks my heart to think of John Laws all alone in his ivory tower.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      We got that. I’ve always been an outsider freak so it was a meh but Lovey struggled with it. She’s actually quite confident now though that we can come out the other side and I hear her repeating things I say to others on the phone.

      Poor deluded fool.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Hey, now that’s too much! All the event thingies I go in are cancelled until August at the earliest. The club I’m with has closed down for the duration. Even my pool is shut. I have nowhere…nowhere…to wear my purple and lime active wear. I haven’t exercised with a group of active wearers since Monday. Monday!

          Yeah, I might drag Lovey and the boy through this safely but the cost! I will look terrible. Nobody wants that.

    • Won’t know until the virus is over, if it ends up doing minimal damage then you end up looking silly but then if it tears through the country you are sensible. Should of let them stay in school and then if the kids are diagnosed with it force the in-laws to look after them, they might change their opinion then.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      No – to me, you are being eminently sensible for both sides. A couple friends of ours, who are seniors and one of whom is a nurse, have a 35-year old daughter, who is married to another doctor and they have 3 young children (all under 6). The daughter and son-in-law are the ones that suggested no meeting up UFN and our seniors friends totally respect that proposition.

    • Company has a Shanghai office, dealing with this since day one. So between that and this website I have been way ahead of the curve. We have had my 6yo out of school all week, and have been working from home. My wife is a primary teacher who is not working since we also have a 2yo. So you would think it would be easy for us in terms of home-schooling, but we seem to have gone much earlier than everyone in the school (WA) and the wife is freaking out about my daughter missing out on things….and listening the gubmint messaging she wonders why I pushed so hard. At times she is saying she wants my daughter to go back, but at 4sqm per person how the fkn does that work with kids ?!

      I keep having to do the whole speech and explaining / reminding how utterly inept this government is. It has been chaos at home all week with kids’ meltdowns left right and centre, super-high levels of anxiety and minimal productivity! At first the in-laws questioned us but are now in support, despite the old man still not fully understanding all the risks. It’s actually really stressful being so far ahead of the masses and watching the slow moving train wreck. Still, I’d rather be safe and look weird than the alternative

      • Yeah, I don’t trust those in charge to be making the right calls. I trust my own gut instinct and intuition.

        Not long ago I was the chicken little according to my family. Too conservative on risk taking they said. Now I laugh at them. Remind them on what I said and what’s going on. My mum thinks I was being crazy when I said house prices will drop up to 60%. We shall see who is right.

        But it’s much more comfortable being part of the crowd. Being the outsider is hard work.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Gav, my LNP campaigner, oil & gas father in law wistfully told me I was right the other night. Then apologized for not listening to me or his daughter. First time in almost 20 years. This thing is going to change politics.

      • It has been hard being ahead of the curve. I used to live in China so I was onto this as soon as Wuhan went into quarantine. I had to drag my parents who are very organised, intelligent and all that but it was a bit of a struggle. I got us prepared before they left for a quick trip to QLD, and in their early 70s driving to the Gold Coast from south of Hellbourne is not something anyone wants to do, but they drove because who knew what the situation would be. We’ve been completely self isolated since they came back, and I actually got a thank you from them the other day as they acknowledged I was ahead of the curve and therefore so were they. Mum is getting a lot of passive aggressive push back from some of her friends for having gone into self isolation, but others are ok as they understand I have a compromised immune system. Sometimes you wonder how some people are alive. How can they be so bad at identifying a life threatening risk? How did their genes make it off the savanna? Anyway it is a good way to identify among people you know who have real world smarts and a flexible intellect. I respect some people I know more, and I respect lot of people much less than I used to.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      I would say ‘sensible’. We have stopped our regular extended family Friday night dinners. Just remind them that everyone thought you were crazy when you did a little bit of light prepper shopping a month ago too. Sadly so many folks still have no idea what is coming.

      • Yeh thank dog the pepper shopping gave us a bit of street cred with them. TBH I couldn’t GAF what the in-laws think but like a few of you the wife gets the guilts and starts questioning things. Thankfully others have pulled their kids out of school and when things like letting 2,700 people off a cruise ship to wander through the city happen she is the one to start rabbiting on about how broken this place is now.

    • You did the right thing. We have done the same, I’d rather be a week early than a week late. We have a retail shop and felt we needed to lead by example. We have closed the shop but it’s still been a few days of backwards and forwards to get things sorted.
      What the leaders aren’t saying is this is a collective action problem, if we all act together we can minimise the harm.

      I also feel that the people in charge have never actively managed life threatening risk, like for real on the ground this will kill you kind of thing. I’m an engineer and climber and many times have faced the – ‘if you do it this way you die’ problem.

      We need to put the firefighters, pilots and outdoor ed instructors in a room, get the doctors to explain the problems and then vote on the policy then get the year 3 primary school teachers to explain it to everyone

      • Thanks and your suggestion of who to get involved is brilliant. Best of luck with your business.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        It’s clear our pollies have spent a life time avoiding responsibilities, sucking up and pushing down. They sound so out of their depth on the radio.
        You could add any officer that ran the Aussie HQs in Afghanistan to the list.

  19. 2 hours ago

    when the crisis is over, rather than go back to the same welfare system we have had, the Government should move permanently to a “guaranteed minimum income”.

    National Australia Bank senior economist David de Garis said on NAB’s morning podcast that as coronavirus spreads and workers around the world are at risk of losing their jobs, reverse taxation was a good option.

    “You want something that’s going to go to the people who need it, and you want something that’s easy to administer,” he said.

    Poll: Younger voters want universal basic income while older ones reject it overwhelmingly

    Love the boomer remover.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I ain’t letting young scum take my taxes for nothing! Send them over to tend to my gardens and clean my pools!

    • There’s no such thing as free money, it’ll come with big strings attached. Basically you’ll need to maintain a good social score to continue to receive the payment.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Ok Jacob ….say we give you a UBI ……..what will you do to contribute to the society that provides it …..( nothing personal old chap ….just a question for the many recipients ) ……
      …signed a boomer that will be hard to remove …..

    • Income without productivity = hyperinflation – some clutch pearls about.

      Just giving people money to spend ends up right back in the Oligarchs bank account and bakes in a permanent underclass …

  20. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Ok, I’ve started doing the right thing and allowing more of my tenants to pay via alternative means. I’ve been getting some good gear, and great pleasures. The thing is, a man only has so many shots loaded into his gun per day. I do envy the massage girls who have no limits. It’s like they’ve been designed to maximise reception of DNA.

  21. Usual train is about the same, might just be my line but don’t see much slowing of foot traffic.

  22. wtf’s going on? did FED see BoE ‘s unlimited amount of money with unlimited amount of money plus WW3? gold is tearing..

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      The poo was in hot pursuit too but ran out of puff.

      Must be asthmatic.

      The Brits must be feeling confident too, but WuFlu cases worldwide reaching half a million by the end of March should fix that. Stupid optimists.

  23. Today seems to mark the end of the first phase, where everyone thinks monetary ad fiscal policy will fix all the thing.

    Now we wait for the real world impacts and the next let down after that reality sinks in.

  24. Mate of mine needs shoulder surgery, got in to see the specialist for an operation within three days. He asked the doctor why so quick, and the answer was “no-one’s playing competitive sport so no one is getting injured. Business has dried up completely”.

    I thought geez, the economic ripple effect of this virus defies imagination. There is no way we aren’t heading for a full on depression.

    • She’ll be sent back to Australia to hoard bog rolls. That’ll learn ya ya round eyed xiunts.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      She would be lucky if she only face deportation. The Chinese authorities are waiting for her quarantine period to be over before she’ll just.. disappear.

  25. innocent bystanderMEMBER

    ¿ does anyone remember that advertising campaign, ANZ I think it was, one with the most property when they die wins


    Mortality was very high among the 32 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, of whom 31 (97%) died.

    So we’re shutting down the entire world to have enough ventilators
    But even if everyone of those patients with severe enough disease to warrant ventilation gets it, then we only save 3% of them?

    The vast majority (80%) being asymptomatic
    15% hospitalised
    5% critical (presumably ventilated )

    Let’s assume worst 20,000,000 cases in Australia
    5% require ventilation = 1,000,000
    If we can flatten the curve and ventilate all of them we save 3% = 30,000 lives and 970,000 still die

    This is for the apocalyptic scenario and very unrealistic as the true percentage of asymptomatic patients is almost certainly higher than 80%

    For the more realistic scenarios which have been posited by the mainstream media of 150,000 deaths its even more meaningless a difference

    Anybody else feel this is a waste of time?

      • Vaccine is 12-18 months away

        The majority of the population will already have it by then

        Treatment seems a forlorn hope

        If there were effective treatments for viral pneumonia, ARDS etc we would already have them

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Coming around?

      If you read the Chinese lit, that 80% were defined as ‘mild’. They were not asymptotic. The 80% had been tested and needed some form of hospital assistance, had pneumonia but were not given oxygen.

      The asymptomatic cases were not tested.

      • Well that would suggest that the number of cases requiring ventilation is even less as a % of the overall number infected

        So the benefit of flattening the curve is even more marginal

  27. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The 12 townhouse construction site down the road has stopped dead. Forced manure?

    It was a buzz on Tuesday. Not a peep today or yesterday.

  28. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Wayne Bennett has WuFlu! Just saw him coughing all over the poor bloke not social distancing right next to him.

  29. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Last week I thought as the number of cases hit 1000, ScoMo would close the schools. I was wrong. Today the number of infected is 871, and it’ll definitely be over 1000 tomorrow. Australia’s border is closed to non-residents, UTS, MQU, USyd and UNSW is now ‘online only’, and UWS will be online only from March 31st. NAPLAN is cancelled, Royal Easter Show is cancelled, ANZAC parade is cancelled, BBQ at Bunnings is cancelled, but our schools still remains open.

    Why? This is what I can’t understand. Is ScoMo doing this because he hates Australian that much?

    School holidays starts on 10th April. If we wait by then, there would be about 50k infected reported, and about 200k infected in reality. By that time it doesn’t matter because we would be well on its way to the worse case scenario.

    • where do you get up to date Australian numbers? I use JHU site but does not update regularly.

    • I think the truth is that stress-testing alternative delivery for all schools and TAFES which, in NSW at least is aligning to Dept. Of Education, has shown that our world-class NBN will not cope foe digital delivery. I reckon they’re scrambling to come up with a plan B.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Is it simply a case of they don’t know what to do during a lockdown so delay, delay, delay hoping for the best? The Liberals in Straya have a history of being unable to face facts and make decisions. This might just be history repeating.

    • I don’t get it either. It is obvious kids transmit the disease. It is also obvious this thing will become endemic and we all need to get it eventually so flattening the curve is essential. But they are obviously still not properly understanding the aerosol transmission, the lives up to 9 days on a surface depending on circumstances and the prevalence of asymptomatic transmission. It’s gonna be a shit show and it really didn;t need to have been if we had some pollies with half a brain and the ability to actually communicate and cajole and threaten the community into reacting in the correct way. Anyway the poppy household is out of the game. We’re in self isolation and we are all happy to be that way. There are still the occasional trip to Bunnings, Coles and the chemist, but I hope Dad just decides screw it, none of that is necessary very soon.

  30. DingwallMEMBER

    Futures up big for US and Aus. Obviously no workforce layoffs, no companies going to the wall and no deaths going forward. Everything is awesome…….. and oil is back to over $25

    • Had a dabble with some gold miners earlier in the week. Closed it out rather than held them over the weekend.

      • Depends on your time horizon and thoughts. AUD Gold still above 2,500, some have a bit of cash, no debt and a lot better outlook than 5 years ago when they were a real risk proposition. Have a look at the the AUD gold price, the gold miners share price, make up your own opinion and expect some volatility.

  31. Wonder how those Chinese investors are feeling about their investment.. i always think back to the days banks were lending to o/s investors based on o/s income..

  32. arthritic kneeMEMBER

    As the world falls down around me, I find myself wondering….
    What did Stagmal have for dinner, and did he find anything interesting in a bin recently. Is Dubbo in lock down? I am anxious about the bug getting to Popcod. Will she be OK? Have I been here too long? Should I be seeking help?

  33. You know, i really hope they remembered to get those people they sent off to Christmas Island in all this chaos.. I can imagine them still standing around going “err guys.. is anyone there? They’re coming back right?”
    And then imagine coming to this sh1te after spending 2 weeks there uninfected. Wonder if they want back on Christmas Island now where they are separated from mainland by a moat.

  34. I’m in a small business & have been for lots of years. I employ 6 incredibly loyal employees who I would never want any harm to. I am absolutely shit scared for now & the next 6 – 12 – 18 months. I have no idea what is going to happen but it is VERY VERY BAD OUT THERE. If you are a small business owner right now you are in deep deep poo. No-one is going to help you no matter all the bullshit talk by the banks and Anna Bligh & dodo comyn they will not help you. Your Landlord will be the biggest prick, trust me they never let up no matter what. (PS big tip if you are in trouble with rent payments do not talk to the property agent they are fellons, go direct to actual owner, they may or may not be more intelligent than the property guy!!) MB & all the talk of Government funny money & whatever they espouse is absolute bullshit. If you are in business it will not help you. The best that you can hope for is that it might help your employees. The Government will talk the talk but it WILL NOT HELP YOU. If you are struggling right now you need to take immediate & desperate action. DO NOT DELAY. Most on this MB blog are not self employed business owners with employees so they have no idea what it is like to put the key in the door in the morning & wonder how you will pay the employees & anyone else & then yourself. For the many “micro” businesses out there I wish them good luck. Many on MB would call you the bogans but you were just doing what you thought you could & “you had a go!”. Good luck in next period of time, for however long that is. But whatever you do you need to act first & act hard. P.S. if you’re in a government job just stay there, it’ll be like nothing happened anyway.

    • You know.. we all know this deep down. This govt is all about big announcements and no follow through. Just look at fire relief..
      Do what is right for you. The govt let this virus run free here, so much they could have done early. And they didnt want to for big business would lose $$. Now they want you to carry the dead bird. Do not do it. Look after yourself because noone else will
      And look after yourself because not everyone will survive. These natural disasters are made so not everyone survives.

    • Mrs Nut works in a small accounting firm with a stack of ScoVid’s beloved small businesses. She reckons the small business package is bullshido as most a tradies who at best only own their ute. All this money that ScoVid’s supposedly throwing around won’t affect a majority small businesses. A bit different for those who have workshops or a retail outlet but most will let go of staff if there’s no reason to keep them on. A roundly bad situation that Government has totally misunderstood.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Sool mate I’m so sorry to hear that, and not even because I’ve been fond of your take on thing.

      This fkn bulls#it Potemkin Village economy that drove AUD to 1.10 only to bring it back where it started is such a fraud!! And these prolapsed rectums in “opposition” don’t say diddly!!!

      This shit!

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Sool mate I’m so sorry to hear that, and not even because I’ve been fond of your take on thing.

      This fkn bulls#it Potemkin Village economy that drove AUD to 1.10 only to bring it back where it started is such a fraud!! And these prolapsed rectums in “opposition” don’t say diddly!!!


  35. migtronixMEMBER

    What make fken bloodshot eyed livid is that not one mothrfka in this whole fkn social distancing fiasco has pointed out THE GREATER THAN SUB-HARAHN AFRICA population growth we’ve been careening into!!!

    F#ck yo house prices!