Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Another sea of red across Asian stock markets today as the crash continues, with local stocks leading the way despite a big cut to interest rates locally by the RBA and a near twenty year low for the Australian dollar. Japanese stocks are off as well despite the BOJ stepping in and buying up big, while Chinese shares have diverged fortunes a little, helped by a much more aggressive PBOC cut:

The Shanghai Composite was off by nearly 100 points before the lunch break but has recovered somewhat going into the close, currently down 0.4% at 2717 points. The Hang Seng Index is falling much sharper, down 2.7% to 21709 points with the daily chart showing no bottom in sight:

Japanese share markets continue to stumble with the Nikkei 225 losing 1% to 16552 points with the USDJPY pair lifting slightly after breaching last week’s peak above the 108 handle as the bearish double top pattern on the four hourly chart is wiped away as King Dollar returns to strength while shuffling off the normal risk correlation:

The ASX200 was thee worst performer, down 3.4% to close at 4782 points, now off by nearly 23% year on year. How’s your super travelling? The Aussie dollar is the star of the day howver – 55 cents now against USD and at parity with the Kiwi. Big signal there on global risk sentiment being in the toilet as it tracks commodities prices lower:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are pulling back again, down 4% so far with the four hourly S&P futures chart again showing another breakdown is imminent, ready to break below the 2300 point level for yet another new low: it aint over!

 

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Comments

  1. Well something has made the poo do an almighty bob up.

    NZD the same.

    AUD has gone up 150 pips and is back to where it was at lunchtime!

    Not sure why it plummeted from about midday TBH but it’s back now.

      • Ah no you missed it. Sorry to hear it.

        I did too. But mine is actual cash in the US, takes about 2 days to move. I might get a bit more ready though…

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Yes. Site would be fine then show an error then be fine then error.

          Wasn’t brave enough to jump not knowing what would happen after hitting enter. But meh, don’t think it will be the last time we see it.

  2. Retrospectively, I wish I’d listened to you guys and bought some baked beans online…

    Heinz’s site is a wonderful thing!

  3. Coronavirus … what can we learn from Germany ? ….

    Why does Germany have such a low coronavirus death rate? … Justin Huggler … UK Telegraph (behind paywall)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/18/does-germany-have-low-coronavirus-death-rate/

    Scientists are struggling to understand why the death rate from the coronavirus is so much lower in Germany than other countries. Germany has seen just 27 deaths from the virus so far despite recording 10,082 infections — more than anywhere except China, Italy, Iran and Spain.

    That represents a fatality rate of just 0.2 per cent, compared to 7.9 per cent in Italy — raising hopes Germany might be doing something right that other countries can follow.

    The disparity has even led to allegations of a German cover-up by the Italian far-Right. But experts have cautioned that Germany may simply be at an earlier stage of the pandemic, and that death rates here may soon catch up.

    But they also point to other factors that may be helping keep the German death rate down … read more via hyperlink above (behind paywall) …
    .
    .
    Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    • Germany has the 4th highest number of hospital beds per 1000 people in the OECD at 8.0. Italy only has 3.2.
      The two countries that have the highest beds per 1000 are Japan at 13.1 and South Korea at 12.3. South Korea has by far the lowest death rate so far.
      Unfortunately Australia only has 3.8, US 2.8, NZ 2.6, UK 2.5, Canada 2.5.
      The 5 eyes are about to be up to their eyes in dead people.

  4. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Well on the plus side of Corona virus Armageddon and societal collapse Ive been keeping off the junk food and the P!ss for weeks now and in combination with my Fish oil, vitamin D, Zinc, ecanacia garlic and Vitamin C pills, along with a conscious effort to eat healthier,…
    Im feeling pretty fken Good.

  5. Super down 3.3%. A bit of a hit, but better than 20 %. I’ve ignored Australian Super’s plea to remain in equities. Now paying them management fees to keep my cash in a bank account. Sigh.

    Meanwhile…posted elsewhere this arvo, but worth a replay I reckon…Warren Zevon doing the National Anthem.

    https://youtu.be/LbhYqV17CoQ

  6. Castle Hill Myer has closed down due to an infected employee and efforts are now underway to track down recent customers….shouldn’t be too hard to find all 3 of them.

  7. innocent bystanderMEMBER

    A couple of weeks ago two bulls* were walking along the ridge line.
    Young bull sees a large herd of young cows down in the valley.
    Young bull says Lets run down there and get us some of those cows!
    Old bull says Lets walk down there and have them all.
    Flawse probably said that, back in time.
    * not that sort of bull.

  8. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Went to chiropractor today. Said he’s down 60% and has heard every excuse under the sun.
    Yet people think going to Coles carries no risk

    • Any chance that people are preferencing buying food instead of paying quacks, regardless of potential virus exposure? With so many people facing uncertain employment outcomes not hard to imagine cutting away everything except the most essential medical appointments and buying food before they have no cash to buy it. Another potential trigger for hoarding “True Australian” Scummo didn’t consider.

  9. so AFP and Border Protection spearheaded by Peter will fight toilet paper hoarders. the world is laughing at us.

  10. China Takes Axe To Alternative Energy Funding, Slashing Subsidies For Solar And Wind … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china-takes-axe-alternative-energy-funding-slashing-subsidies-solar-and-wind

    Things might be going from bad to worse for Elon Musk and his merry band of alternative energy cultists in China. While Musk is currently in the midst of criticism from the Chinese government related to a bait and switch he is pulling on vehicle hardware (while blaming the coronavirus), the Chinese government appears to be set on slashing additional alternative energy subsidies in 2020.

    China is going to cut its budget for new solar power plants in half this year and plans on completely ending handouts for offshore wind farms, according to Caixin.

    It is the latest in a string of moves by the Chinese government to cut support for renewable energy. The attitude has shifted in recent years as manufacturing costs have dropped. The government now seems focused on getting renewable energy to stand on its own. …. Read more via hyperlink above …

  11. Having donated money to that Instagram bushfire chick in the name of community spirit, and that community spirit is quite clearly now dead (if it actually ever existed)…would it be unethical to recoup my donation by selling my stash of children’s Panadol at the going market rate, if there was no nett financial gain?

  12. So when can we claim compensation from China for the WuFlu ?

    I think that the world should put a tax on anything China from now on in order to make back what it has cost them.

    • Still waiting for someone to break in and streak across the field. It’d be one for the ages and the only worthwhile entertainment for the night. Where is Helen D’Amico when you need her?

    • I wasn’t a huge fan of his business practices. Saw a few cars he brought in and flogged off. The Museum was anything but. It was just a used parking lot he charged entry for. Clever idea, but stock turned over quickly.

  13. Mining BoganMEMBER

    If there’s nobody at the footy then why do they have the big stadium screens on showing the TV coverage?

  14. Via the SMH: “Forget toilet paper – shoppers in the Netherlands are panic-buying weed”

    Within minutes of the announcement (that “coffee shops” were to close) lines stretched around the block at shops across the Netherlands as stoners sought to stock up on enough weed to get them through weeks of quarantine. “We were going to get groceries and saw a huge line in front of the coffee shop,” said Guntars Upis, a student in Amsterdam. “We decided to get some too, before it closed.”

    Add that to the list of why Australia is a sh1t country.

  15. When’s predictions on when this will actually kick off? Feels like just a whole lot of nothing so far. I recall all last week seeing reports of ‘we will be Italy in 5 days’. What are the chances this is overblown considerably? Germany’s death rate vs total cases is very, very low. Not that I want to be complacent.

    I understand exponential growth and the time it takes to take hold, etc. I thought we would have had a few more deaths by here, though.

    • I don’t recall a 5 day lag to Italy. I think 2 to 3 week lag is probably closer. We are still doubling every 3 or 4 days. It may feel like a slow motion train wreck knowing what is coming, but it’ll be here before we know it.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      As of tonight, we’re currently at 709 cases and 6 death. If ScoMo still continues his ‘best scientific advice’, we will hit 1000+ by the end of the week, and 2000 around next Tuesday night. The death rate will then go toward 10% as we run out of hospital beds.

      • My question at this stage is who the f-ck will Scomo blame when this turns to sh!t. I’m presuming his medical advisors, the States, the public and Labor are on the list, and perhaps (in private) Satan. I just wish those wacky Wuhan chemists invented something that made your balls catch fire at the first sign of smugness.

    • 1. RBA has done QE
      2. Bottom has dropped out of the Australian dollar

      Only thing left is for house prices to crash, then they can close the site and we can all go home

      18 months away I reckon

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        LOLd.

        And what *was* happening on the 18 September 2018?

        Martin North, the founder of Digital Finance Analytics, said ballooning household debt, compounded by sliding prices in Sydney and Melbourne, would cause house prices to fall fall 40 to 45 per cent in the next 12 months.
        “We’ve got a debt bomb a debt crisis and at some point it’s going to explode in our face,” he said.

        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/09/martin-north-strung-up-next-to-steve-keen/

      • I wish it were true (not the site), but I hear rumbles of payment holidays and with Apra relaxing as well they will try to forestall what needs to happen

        • Just not sure it will be enough! This debt monster is huge. I think Morrison and co. will bring a water pistol when you need an MG42.

  16. Is it me or are the bogan states of WA and QLD now recording the largest jumps. You know the ones with likely the largest numbers of bogans scurrying back from Bali and Asia with the clap and covid 19 from local girls.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      is it Bali and Thailand holiday makers, or that they have the highest representation of right wing radio shock jock (Alan Jones et all) listeners ?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Well, they all votes LNP anyway, so no matter the reason, it would seem The Vogon Constructor Fleet Ship’s Captain’s last words would be apropos here.

    • Ooooo….imagine if Pauline caught the Chinese virus. I can’t figure out if that’s karma, irony, tragedy or comedy.

      • Yeah she’s a twat, but it would remove a decenter and we’d end up with more of the same Liberal/Labor sellouts

      • Pretty sure politicians are all in the high risk category. The virus will yield a 50% success rate with them.

    • Perhaps this will inject some pep in ScroteMo’s step – his voter base stands to be wiped out!

  17. Car manufacturers in USA and Europe are going to convert themselves to manufacturer ventilators for CoronaVirus patients. A pity our idiotic government didn’t appreciate the national security element of car manufacturing.

  18. arthritic kneeMEMBER

    Saw that the Bolt Report was on Poor Man’s Telly – delayed broadcast. Thought I would have a look.
    First impressions: This shit is awesome. These clowns are so funny.
    10 minutes later: We are screwed. If these clowns represent Australia (or worse our current ruling political party) we are Italy 2.0.
    “There’s only 6 dead” – Great argument. Like there wasn’t a time in China / Italy where there were only 6 deaths.
    Morons.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Yeah. They come accross as hopelessly out of the their depth – making up stuff on the fly and weeks too late. All those lazy years of lying and blagging their way during the good times isn’t worth shite in a real crisis. I cringe for this country. We are in deep trouble.

    • As time goes on those predicted numbers will be more and more divergent compared to official numbers simply because they won’t be testing enough people to get accurate figures.

    • https://mobile.twitter.com/SasshaPetrova/status/1227852590496374784

      “ Extending this #coronavirus travel ban is nuts. The cost to the economy is going to far exceed whatever harm we’re avoiding. We’re among a handful of nations who have banned everyone from mainland China. It’s hysterical policy.”

      And retweeted by certain higher ed spruikers. It is worth considering the extent to which the commercial interests of our universities led to actions that compromised the initial response to the virus.

  19. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Watching the ScoMo government is like watching a train wreck in slow motion,

    In the morning, Foreign Mnister Marise Payne says “border will not be closed”
    In the afternoon, ScoMo closes the border.

    I expect a similar turnaround when the number of cases hit 1000 on school closure. It’s going to happen anyway, so why the delay? Even BoJo has closed the school in UK now when he belatedly realize letting a few million people die is not good public policy.

    A lot of people is pissed off at the Chinese right now for the virus. The overseas Chinese community were the first to call for blocking all traveller from China, because they know how serious it is, and if it spreads, they will eventually get blamed. Blocking off the Chinese worked very well, and when you look at Italy, the number of cases remained at 3 until the 21st of Feburary, and then it simply exploded. What happened is that everyone is too focus on it being a ‘Chinese virus’, they didn’t bother to test non-Asian for it. One asymptomatic super-spreader who was never in China (suspect to have been infected in Germany) was all it took to create the pandemic. If there is a moral to the story, it’s that the virus are not racist : and the initial report about how Asian is more susceptible to being infect proved to be very, very wrong.

    When Italy asked for help, China is the only country to send them supplies and personal. It is a blatant public relation exercise, but it also illustrates an important fact : right now, the only country with the spare capacity to help the rest of the world is China. When Wuhan went into quarantine and other provinces went into lockdown, there is a shortage of certain goods (e.g. instant noodle) yet the supermarkets remains well stocked in the essentials.That prevented public panic, which is in contrast to the rest of the world. The neo-liberal model of dismantling the nation state in favour of corporation have this fallacy : businesses loves shortages. We can laugh at people hoarding toilet paper, but when it spread to staples like potatoes, bread, milk and eggs, it is not funny anymore. One way or another, the virus will be over in a year’s time. It may however change people’s perception of government, and they may decide the ‘Chinese authoritarian model’ is preferable to a ‘democracy’ where you can’t buy milk in the supermarket.

    • It’s certainly exposed the higher education sector as the compromised shameless commercial opportunists they have become.

    • Well fvck you could be right.

      But are you gonna vote for it? And for who.

      I think it won’t happen in ‘straya.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Thats a false binary.
      We are not a real Democracy we are rulef by a Neoliberal coporate Plutocracy that through decades of legislation written in their favour, dominance of the Economic narrative through narrow billionaire media ownership has our system, in reality, more like the top down Authoritarian system of the Chinese than a Meaningful system of Democracy.
      Because of the Democratic history of our Wedtern culture we are subjected to the greatest degrees of indoctrination, propaganda and obfuscation humanity has ever seen.
      Most people just cant or don’t want to see it.
      Maybe subconsciously thats tha of fear of the power behind it.
      https://youtu.be/EuwmWnphqII

    • Yeeeaaaahhh okkk..
      “may decide the ‘Chinese authoritarian model’ is preferable to a ‘democracy’ where you can’t buy milk in the supermarket.”
      That will never happen ESPECIALLY now..
      This authoritarianism in the Chinese model was responsible for not regulating or auditing or monitoring the Wuhan wet market where the whole thing started. This same chinese supression model stopped early intervention of the disease because they wanted to control the narrative over actually caring for people’s lives.
      I will never forget this is the CCPs fault in the first place and their model is inconsistent with transparency and truth. Like that dead doctor said.. a healthy society cannot have just one voice.

    • They’ve shown good judgement in being aware, considerate & bunkering early – Cudos! But one way the Chinese could help perceptions of themselves was by Not being Daigou to start with. They’re now doing it with other items as well – daily busloads to raid Goulburns supermarkets – they can’t blame their government for their own pushy elbows out, me first behavior. I’ve seen it down here too where there’s only a dozen in an old white town, cue jumping & giving the bog roll security a pestering hard time when everyone else is just giving each other their turn. Althhough the telly shows more of a free for all in the cities.

      If this is what Communism turns us into – they can keep it!