Macro Afternoon

By in Australian Dollar, Australian Shares

| 370 comments

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Another day of stupidity on local stocks, with the ASX200 selling off because ScoMo had some choice words for the unwashed hoarders, while other stock markets lifted across the region. Nevertheless, US futures are down going into the European open with the USD retreating against the majors, except gold which is looking wobbly after several sessions of epic volatility. The PBOC weakened Yuan substantially today with a much higher fix at 7.0328 from yesterdays near 7 level.

The Shanghai Composite has gapped higher at the open and is currently up 1.3% going into the close, currently at 2798 points while the Hang Seng Index is putting in a scratch session after starting lower in the day, currently at 23281 points with the daily chart still quite weak:

Japanese share markets continue to lift with the Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 17100 points with the USDJPY pair pulling back slightly after almost reaching last week’s peak nearer the 108 handle as a small double top pattern forms here on the four hourly chart:

The ASX200 is still keeping everyone on edge with a near 5% drop after rallying over 6% previously. This remains nuts and doesn’t help confidence one bit, with the market struggling to clear the 5000 point area, just scraping in at 5048. The Australian dollar had another tight trading range and is currently just over the 60 handle after failing its bullish falling wedge pattern yesterday on the four hourly chart:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are pulling back again, down 2% so far with the four hourly S&P futures chart at a critical juncture here, ready to break back below the 2400 point level for yet another new low: it aint over!

The economic calendar is relatively quiet tonight with Canadian CPI the only event of note as local traders gear up for tomorrow RBA emergency meeting and numberwang labour force print.

Oh and a word to the wise. Stop reading news.com.au, The Australian and other Murdoch toilet paper substitute when trying to stay up to date on the coronavirus.

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Comments

  1. Counterfiat

    In Germany they are preparing for a potential lockdown situation by stockpiling sausages inside large pieces of luggage.

    It’s really a wurst case scenario…

  3. Arrow2MEMBER

    “The PBOC weakened Yuan substantially today with a much higher fix at 7.0328 from yesterdays near 7 level.“

    Cranky CCP is cranky because trump calls it Chinese virus…

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          Pfft – can you tell The Donald that he may have won a (trade) battle, but at this stage it looks like China is going to win the (huge everything) war?

          • DPM

            Everyone wondered just how bad could a trump presidency be?
            Its just been one long escalation of destabilisation.
            – Peace deal with NK up in smoke
            – Iran deal torn to shreds
            – Climate agreement is toast
            – Trade war at full blows
            – Syria a minefield
            – Stock market a bloodbath
            – Virus running wild

          • GavinMEMBER

            @DPM but aside from that it’s really shook up the establishment. So there is always that.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Id prefer to see Trump win the presidency again rather than that establishment toadying sycophant Joe Biden.
            If Sanders doesn’t get the nomination then fcvk the DNC and fcvk America.

          • triageMEMBER

            …. and that’s why your lot so often finish second … making a virtue out of failure. Biden might deliver 40% of what you’d accept whilst Trump would likely deliver 20% but yeah keep wishing for a virtuous 20%. At least Rich4 knows he is engaged in sophistry.

          • Jigga

            Shudder, wouldn’t have that creepy/touchy Biden around any of my female relatives, especially the grand daughters…Just NQR

    • DominicMEMBER

      I’ll keep an open mind on that fix – I suspect it may be more due to real downward pressure.

      Slowly but surely – don’t spook the horses etc.

      • Arrow2MEMBER

        I think so too. But they have held it so steady for so long, I doubt there is a coincidence in timing that they waited for a bit of tension before they started it off!

    • Eggplant Wizard

      Delightful. I keep flip flopping between thinking this will blow over relatively quickly and markets will snap right back and we’ll all be chuckling about what an over reaction this was by July, and thinking that this is the Big One, hard reset, panic stations etc.

      • Jigga

        It is the GD MK2, best we all prepare based on that.
        Get your seeds, buy chooks, get some rabbit hatches goin…time to be squeamish ends..You all can do this..

    • GeordieMEMBER

      “Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.”

      And their best case control outcome?

      “Overall, our results suggest that population-wide social distancing applied to the population as a whole would have the largest impact; and in combination with other interventions – notably home isolation of cases and school and university closure – has the potential to suppress transmission below the threshold of R=1 required to rapidly reduce case incidence. A minimum policy for effective suppression is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and
      university closure.”

      So glad we made that move today or many Australians may well die*! All hail Plaguelord Scummo!

      (* all will be saved if enough people pray for hope)

  5. migtronixMEMBER

    4 handle its all over mate, just own it. Melbourne CBD was at a virtual stand still and overheard lots of conversations about working from home. Many many many of these places will not be geared to wfh, with adequate vpn routers etc, much less the culture of things like daily standup.

    Its going to be a disaster. The 3 handle is coming…

  7. happy valleyMEMBER

    “Stop reading news.com.au, The Australian and other Murdoch toilet paper substitute when trying to stay up to date on the coronavirus.”

    Are Rupert’s gophers saying that the virus is just like climate change – ie fake news?

  8. happy valleyMEMBER

    “Stop reading news.com.au, The Australian and other Murdoch toilet paper substitute when trying to stay up to date on the coronavirus.”

    Are Rupert’s gophers saying that the virus is just like climate change – ie fake news?

    • LSWCHPMEMBER

      My love and respect for all things Chinese has absolutely skyrocketed over the last few weeks. Facing the prospect of parents and friends dying, my own death, economic catastrophe, financial losses, job loss, social disorder and everything else all at the same time in the last few years of my career is really making me appreciate their culture in a new light.

      Yes. Thanks China, for this blessing.

          • skippy

            moral bankruptcy?

            LOOLOLOL – we have the Creators choice as PM with his ideological friends in administration … whats not to like … morals … LMMAO

        • Itchy Balm

          Mig – don’t say that – this is why we get banned remember.

          “Echo chamber good – intelligence bad.”

          Not even a word of a lie – there is an article on the front page about how China sorting themselves out and helping Italy is proof they are evil.

          One one step away from “This is a weaponized Chinese Bio-weapon”.

      • yeborskyMEMBER

        The Indian Myna equivalent in people.
        I never made a point of watching them but the odd time I saw the sort of Customs/Border Protection shows on the box, the authorities were always confiscating the most appalling, disgusting crap from them as they entered Oz. And this muck, apparently, was food. That “Patient A” in Wuhan was tucking into a bat’s guts doesn’t come as a surprise. Dog help us.

        My own home area is gradually shutting down and I know so many people in small business who are genuinely fearful of the future and have every right to feel that way. But we know blame will never be justly apportioned.

      • GavinMEMBER

        Well if you believe that the Pangolin may be a carrier. It’s just further evidence that the illegal trade in animals that China facilitates and participates in must be out to an end. China must change its ways or be forced to.

        • desmodromicMEMBER

          Exactly. It is no accident that new emerging diseases originate wherever pigs, people, poultry and wildlife are in close quarters. Apart from vast numbers of wildlife killed, it is a global hazard to humans.

      • Bogroll

        @lwphc

        What happened, cuck? Only yesterday you were gloating how healthy and wealthy you are. Now you’re concerned about dying and being financially impaired?

  10. Ortega

    In Vienna at the moment, surreal situation, entire city in lockdown, only one person per family allowed out for essentials. But…. calm. Supermarket isles are fully stocked. There is plenty of toilet paper. There is no panic.

    I don’t think Australia will cope well when the lockdown begins, judging by what I just read on ABC

    Morrison ruling out national lockdown now will make things much, much worse for Australia later as winter sets in.

    There’s an imbecile rapture cultist running the country.

    And he will condemn TENS OF THOUSANDS AT LEAST to DEATH

  12. Arrow2MEMBER

    Interesting that Aussie bonds are still selling off despite the RBA announcement scheduled for tomorrow which should drive yields down.

    Either means
    – RBA has lost all credibility and market does not believe it will act, or
    – No one wants to own Australia, or
    – players really are desperate for liquidity

    Or all of the above 😱

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      The major reason I sold out of bonds (the day before the Fed cut 50 basis points, bstards) was because it was obvious QE was coming to the world and this time Australia soon. And I’m too dumb to know what will happen to AGB in the short term when QE starts. That’s thanks to reading the some of the VERY informed comments on this blog. Way smarter than me, and differing opinions about what scenarios are most likely to play out. So…. eeeeek!

      So, being smart enough at least to know if I’m not sure that I should get out, I did. Hurt for a few days, and then bang, this wierdness. It has to settle down eventually; unless every major insto decides to wait until QE policy is 100% locked in. And buys then. If that QE policy looks centred on AGB purchases that is (as per JCB for the last, what, decade?). Who knows?

      I certainly don’t!

      • GavinMEMBER

        I can empathize with that. Part of the reason I went balls deep in Aussie RE was that I really didn’t know what was gonna happen when rates went to 0 again and QE started. I was thinking go long Gold, Bonds, Stocks, $USD etc.. or even BTC but so far everything but property is falling. I am sure property will fall and the fall in $,AUD means I probably should have stayed long $USD but I really don’t know what happens next.. and that was what I was worried about. Still am infact.

        • desmodromicMEMBER

          Same reasoning here Gav. In January I used USD to fund the deposit on a house that will probably lose value over the next 5-10 years. Nonetheless I have a place to live. The USD would be worth $10K+ more at todays exchange rate.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Is there something about “asset prices to the moon!” which was unclear?

          That much I had no doubt about. Nor that housing would be one of those assets. Of course by that logic… 😉

          That said, it’s possible we’ll be paid to pay our mortgages soon, especially if housing tanks, one way or another. Possibly more than one way!

          #australiawinning

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      My money for the RBA announcement tomorrow is this:-

      25bps trimmed – which the the global capital market will see as an excuse to snigger
      some small calibre QE with a target of flattening the curve
      Some vaguely negative words about the economy, and a slight twist of warning about the global backdrop, and a hail Mary tossed from the melee begging for a fiscal splurge.

      the AUD will bounced to circa 63 or so briefly, on the widespread perception the RBA doesnt have any idea of how to implement anything remotely QE like, and then slide inexorably back into the mid 50 as more and more analysis surface pointing out just how utterly reamed the Ozeconomy actually is.

      But if by chance they get the QE part remotely right, then I think we can look forward to low 50s tomorrow eve.

      • Arrow2MEMBER

        100%

        Now looking at the lessons of history:
        – they won’t get it right
        – the AUD may thus get reamed as the market realises nothing can save us
        – or maybe it won’t
        – and in any case the AUD will do something violent three times the size because of something else entirely, like the Fed / hedge funds / DXY, thus reminding us we are but a cork in the ocean and actually have no control over anything.

  13. Luke Hulm

    “Oh and a word to the wise. Stop reading news.com.au, The Australian and other Murdoch toilet paper substitute when trying to stay up to date on the coronavirus.”
    “Another day of stupidity on local stocks, with the ASX200 selling off because ScoMo had some choice words for the unwashed hoarders”

    Careful your own bias is showing. Murdoch press is no better nor worse than any other choice these days.. not so much that it is a paragon of virtue but because there are now ZERO good news sources in the nation with the ABC abandoning loyalty and honesty in its reporting to spruik for marxism, big Australia, globalism and anti-Whitism and other leftist mediums to do the same.

    ..at last that is why I am here. If there were decent reporting elsewhere there would be no need for this news service.

  15. China PlateMEMBER

    Geez i’m out of breath
    I just come from the “Australian dollar destroyed to seventeen year low” thread.
    Over 160 comments. Man this volatility is great

    • DPM

      I wish!!! They should have raised with the US a long time ago.
      Would have avoided a housing bubble which would have deflated by now and given some room to cut.

    • DominicMEMBER

      It’s not a popular view – but it’s the right one.

      All this fiscal and monetary stimulus will not end well. And we’ve only seen a bazooka or two so far – wait until the tanks start rolling. In case you haven’t seen it: Damien Boey’s latest article asks whether the fiat money system may be on borrowed time. That says it all.

      • DPM

        That’s throwing out the baby with the bath water.
        We all know what needs to be done:
        – reinstate Glass–Steagall
        – Ban corporate buybacks
        – Automatic wind down CB balance sheets with no exception
        – Aim is to tighten credit in an orderly fashion and get back to fundamentals

        • DominicMEMBER

          All sensible suggestions – but every one of those would be resisted by the powers that be. All these things are designed to serve the elites and the super-wealthy. It’s a symbiotic relationship: the pollies do the bidding of the super-rich and the super-rich give pollies a cut of the spoils. That’s the way the world works.

          Added to which implementing those suggestions is not going to help the man in the street these next few months.

      • Ortega

        Couple of weeks ago, on here, don’t know where it was, It’s there. Rates will go up.
        Said this is the return of the ‘real’. Bad news is bad news again.

        Either rates go higher or there’s a ‘fiatsco’.

        And if you consider the whole thing carefully, it is possible, as we get the daily drip-drip of calamity in the news, that the machine itself breaks, wether rates rise or not.

        Also said beware of true black swans. We are in a prolonged period of stress/fragility. There are people/states/orgs etc out there who view this period as ‘ideal’. Utterly Appalling.

        There is chaos under the heavens….

    • BoomToBustMEMBER

      I’ve said the same thing a few times in here and to others around me, most people think I’m bat $h1t crazy. So far I guess they are right!

    • GavinMEMBER

      I agree provided events transpire to create massive inflation. But right now we are looking at drop in demand, which means lower prices because of less customers. We are looking at high deflation in my opinion.

      • Ortega

        Absolutely. And here’s the thing, we’ll get deflation, then hyper-inflation.

        1) Pandemic signals return of the Real to market dynamics
        2) Like wars, this pandemic will end. Past end to great wars led to euphoria, inflation.
        3) Vaccine, (or rolling vaccines if seasonal) is coming for Covid-19
        4) Current bazooka/ helicopter/ funny money will be hoarded, not spent, until that moment.
        5) that moment is coming. Will be inflationary.
        6) Interest rates Up. Up. Up.

    • Even StevenMEMBER

      No, rates are not going higher. There is nothing to stop central banks and governments embarking on a big program of printing / wealth redistribution.

      Hyperinflation is avoidable.

  17. innocent bystander

    Another day of stupidity on local stocks, with the ASX200 selling off because ScoMo had some choice words for the unwashed hoarders, while other stock markets lifted across the region.

    or maybe we are starting to look at fundamentals?

    The ASX200 is still keeping everyone on edge with a near 5% drop after rallying over 6% previously. This remains nuts and doesn’t help confidence one bit, with the market struggling to clear the 5000 point area, just scraping in at 5048

    well, who do we blame such volatility/swings on?

    • NikoMEMBER

      it’s safe, as long as there are no more than 100 in one room. Gyms, Pubs etc.. all stay open. Schools too.
      When we get to 2k infected this number will be reduced to 50 then to 25 etc.. Chunts are trying to avoid stimulus and they probably still hoping to deliver surplus.
      But yeah.. few Lebs fighting over Toilet Paper is all is wrong with the country.

      He is not going to shut until we get to Italy. And he is making sure we have our Italy moment. There is shortage of testing kits which means Scumo was really fiddling when covid19 started spreading in Japan, S Korea and Singapore. Drs are saying the 100k new test kits are nowhere near enough to meet the requirements of the current situation.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        In NSW, only about 3000 test are conducted reach day. The big problem is unless you’re a Federal politician or Tom Hanks, you need to wait a long time for the result.

        • NikoMEMBER

          I tried to find the clip but not winning. yesterday I watched short clip from Perth Gp who’s got symptoms and she is refused a test because she hasn’t traveled overseas. Week later rules changed and if you are medical practitioner overseas travel does not apply but they did not gave her a test because she did not have fever anymore but still showing other symptoms.
          She is self isolating and not going to work for over 2 weeks now in order to prevent infecting her patients.

    • NikoMEMBER

      just to add it seems majority of Australians realised they are dealing with a lunatic in Scumo and stopped listening. It looks lot of people started to self isolate as streets, shopping centres, CBDs are now empty.

    • Freddy

      I have little doubt that they are waiting for the School/Uni hols on April 9. Perhaps 1-2 weeks earlier if they intend to lock down for more than two weeks.

  21. Pfh007MEMBER

    The globalist / neoliberal theory of open borders and free movement of people has taken a thumping over the last few months as a tiny parasitic life form spreads rapidly to every corner of the globe.

    Is there really any alternative to rolling back our global anthropocentric ideological obsession and the approaches to regulation it shapes?

    If a failure of infection control on this scale occurred in agriculture would we tolerate it or just shrug our shoulders and accept that as a reasonable price to pay of living a globalist cosmopolitan jet set lifestyle?

    Perhaps we should be more respectful of nature’s cruel beauty and accept that quarantine processes are not some historic anachronism but unavoidable and a critical protection from the spread of disease and other things that are harmful. Perhaps we should accept that there are some important reasons to question whether bigger and more interconnected is always better.

    Countries should be free to live as they choose but if it involves greater risks of generating deadly pathogens (either from badly maintained research laboratories or just choice of food or animal husbandry practices) perhaps the quarantine procedures and regulations relating to the movement of people from those countries should reflect that.

    We don’t have a great track record at learning from mistakes if the lessons conflict with the grand plans of those who are sure they know best.

    Stay safe peeps!

    • LSWCHPMEMBER

      Anyone who comes to Australia in future after spending even one day in China should have to undergo 30 days of isolation. No exceptions, for ever.

      That’s just the start. Next, lets think about Chinese products…

    • LeMon3MEMBER

      there was an infection control failure of this scale in agriculture just last year. It’s one of the reasons I don’t raise pigs any more. It’s called african swine fever. Luckily, pigs don’t fly 😉

    • skippy

      “The globalist / neoliberal theory of open borders and free movement of people has taken a thumping over the last few months as a tiny parasitic life form spreads rapidly to every corner of the globe.”

      Umm no … the correct terminology is spreading free markets and democracy as advanced by those like the Chicago school [something you have had a past affiliation with pft] …

      It must be uncomfortable to abandon ones faith [tm] and do the whole convert thingy so one can survive a ruff patch and reclaim faith once the darkness is past … I mean as long as your getting eyeballs on your camps narrative … someone has to be in control right – ????

      Sound money “Science” of it AMI lolololololol …

      • Pfh007MEMBER

        Skippy,

        Sounds like a fever is building.

        Better get it looked at.

        Hey how are the family’s banking interests holding up? You getting a bailout?

  23. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    I have a question:
    How come there is a limit DOWN automatic stabilizer on the DOW Jones, but there is no Limit UP stabiliser?

    Also, does the ASX have one?

  24. LSWCHPMEMBER

    340 point drop on the ASX today. Once upon a time…like a month ago…that would’ve mad me shit the bed. Now? Business as Usual. Just another day on the market. Amazing how quickly we can adapt to changed circumstances.

  26. skippy

    Unless this shut in mob understands MMT properly its going to be a dogs breakfast …. I mean its not like Mosler made 200M on a bet that rating agencies were rubbish or anything …

    • Ortega

      When players start coming down with the virus, what then?

      Gobsmacking idiocy by the AFL.

      Season suspended till further notice. Bite the bullet.

      All EU sports in lockdown.

    • Wing Nut

      Using CoVid and a team lockdown to dump ya missus is a total dog act but didn’t stop this rising star.

      Young AFL player delivers bad news to girlfriend
      By David Prestipino (SMH)

      Fremantle youngster Bailey Banfield has revealed the tough call he made to his girlfriend this week.

      “After training I made the call to my girlfriend Julia and told her that, based on current advice, I may not see her for potentially a few weeks as we went into isolation as a club,” Banfield told the club’s website.

      “She has to live her life and she’s just started a new job in the city and has to catch public transport into work.

      “The concern was that any interactions with people or potentially contaminated surfaces would cancel out my self-isolation. It would be a risk for the whole club.

      “With Julia’s new job, continuing to see her was not an option.”

      The Dockers have not asked players to do this but has informed them that “every interaction is a risk” after Fremantle forward Rory Lobb earlier detailed his living arrangements with his partner on Perth radio.

        • skippy

          I get that Mig but its complicated after some decades … you know productivity and wages followed by bad underwriting [groan] – crap some have the thumb on the detonator and will use it like MAD.

          What can I say Mig … Mandelbrot had this sorted … as well Born … yet some persisted …

          The best I can offer is your mind is a precious thing … have a care what you put in it and what it clings too …

        • skippy

          I mean come on if wages had tracked productivity none of this would have happened, same goes for floor to C-suite ratios, but yeah Mungers LBOs et al …

  30. L

    https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/shopping/young-girl-trampled-in-panic-buying-stampede-at-a-coles-supermarket-c-751176

    A 13-year-old girl has been trampled by shoppers in what has been described as a toilet paper stampede at a Coles supermarket in Perth’s south. Hayley arrived at the Baldivis store with mum Emma Zache – who is wheelchair-bound following ankle surgery – and brother Tyler about 7.50am on Tuesday to buy toilet paper and other essentials.

    “She was pushed to the ground and then stood on by adults who had no care in the world for a child on the floor.
    “People were walking over her while she was crying on the ground just to get what they wanted.”

  31. Ortega

    NEW YORK is being prepared for a “SHELTER IN PLACE ORDER”

    But in Oz, the AFL is still thinking about the season starting tomorrow.

    And Scummo has his hands in the air, singing, praising the giant spaghetti monster.

    FMD.

  33. CanuckDownUnder

    Proverbial is hitting the fan at the spouse’s lab. New fresh off the plane PhD student flew in on the weekend. Lab head decided he should come straight into work and forgo the 14 day self-isolation since he got in before it became mandatory. Has developed symptoms overnight and gone for testing, being a pleb results on Friday.

    Children’s school is still pretending like everything is normal but son’s class had 8 away yesterday, 9 today so that’s 1/3 of students pulled out already. I assume gov will try and hold off shutting things down until school holidays.

    • innocent bystander

      or the census dates for the Uni’s.

      Each subject of study offered at the University will have a census date. The census date is the last date you can withdraw from a subject without being financially liable

      • Timmeh

        Exactly this. We need someone to start a we-chat sh!tstorm telling the chinese cash cows they aren’t just going to be milked, they will then be turned into mince meat.

  34. SwampyMEMBER

    In a case of incredibly poor timing , this EDM from velocity frequent flyer – get 1000 FF points when you something something blah blah [Ed: my brevity] with anodyne home loan company

  35. nyleta

    They don’t seem to have a rationing system ready to go……what was the plan if we went to war ? I think I have had the virus for about 10 days but good luck getting a test in Brisbane unless you are gagging for breath. The bit I haven’t seen mentioned is the effect on the heart….in my case at least the mild case of the runs seems to be associated with changes in the heart rate.

  38. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Got test results. Negative. ‘Unknown viral infection’. (Wuflu 2 😀)

    They will test again if my symptoms dramatically change for the worse.

    A tennis teammate has had the same symptoms over the same time. He’s getting tested tomorrow. Works in Health.

    Half think great. Half thinking of all the people who tested multiple times before testing positive.

    Going to wait for my teammates result before venturing out.

    Fckn.

  39. TrooDohMEMBER

    Australia set for virus explosion

    Australia is on track to see an explosion of coronavirus cases similar to that being experienced in Europe, as the case count climbs to 560.

    An additional 57 cases in NSW were confirmed today, and 27 new cases in Victoria. Queensland’s case count rose to 94, up from 78. Western Australia now has 35 COVID-19 cases, South Australia has 32, the ACT now has three cases. Tasmania has seven cases and the NT has one case.

    The head of the biosecurity program at the University of NSW’s Kirby Institute, Raina MacIntyre, said the doubling time of the epidemic was now three to four days. That was cause for concern, she said.

    “We’re very much on the upward part of the curve. We can expect there to be a lot more cases tomorrow and even more cases the day after.

    “The doubling time is now faster, which means we’re very much on that sharp upward trajectory of the epidemic curve.

    “Early on, it was more like 6 days, now it’s looking more like 3 or 4 days. That means things are going to get a lot worse a lot faster.”

    Professor MacIntyre said the impact of social distancing measures announced by the federal government would not been seen for another couple of weeks, and it was only then that we would know whether we were successful in beginning to flatten the curve in case number growth.

    “We’re probably where Italy 20 days ago,” she said. “Whether we get as bad as Italy depends on how we handle the response from here on and how much we manage to reduce contact between people with the measures we’re undertaking.

    “We’re looking like the countries in Europe that are experiencing quite severe surge in cases. It means that the epidemic is getting bigger very fast.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-australia-live-updates-aussies-ordered-home-new-restrictions-in-bars/news-story/13fd59d3b5d3f74e46f986bf1302e066

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      If we shut down by the end of the week Australia still have a chance.

      If we don’t, then we’ll shut down anyway in April with 10k infected, then it’ll spread to over 100k with 10k death.

      • Popcod

        It’s not going to happen. My place of employment is a very large aquatic and recreation centre, and it looks like the board tonight has made a decision to remain open even though the way they interpreted the 100 person restrictions was for the whole building, not individual rooms. Under normal circumstances we’d have 50 employees in the building. Anyway based on the fb post of reduced opening hours we are staying open. I’m not sure if that is only for vulnerable or special needs groups but to me it sounds like the council and the board have decided it is their duty to keep thecentre open. I think people just can’t grasp that the Italian or Chinese possibility is actually very real. Afterall they probably believe the case numbers to be accurate and don’t understand exponential growth. I’m supposed to be returning to work March 30. I’ll know more tomorrow but argh I had hoped they would see the way of sense and prudence. If the case doubling rate holds true at 3 days we should have 8500 confirmed cases on March 29. I wonder if that’s enough to scare some sense into people? However with reduced operating hours my young uni student colleagues will be fighting each other for my 20 hours of shifts of I don’t want to work based on posts begging to pick up covers

    • bzunicaMEMBER

      This is scaremongering 101. Belgium is trying to make young people take it seriously so they got a doctor to say he has seen some scary scans. No numbers attached so could have been as low as 1.

      • ApproachingZero

        “several seriously ill young patients”
        “an increasing number of people between the ages of 30 and 50 have presented with severe symptoms”
        Clearly not one.

  43. CharlieM

    ROME – “The vast majority of people infected with Covid-19, between 50 and 75%, are completely asymptomatic but represent a formidable source of contagion”. The Professor of Clinical Immunology of the University of Florence Sergio Romagnani writes this at the top of the Tuscany Region, in anticipation of a strong increase in cases also in the Region, on the basis of the study on the inhabitants of Vo ‘Euganeo where the 3000 inhabitants of the country are been subjected to swab. The immunologist explains that the data provided by the study carried out on all the inhabitants of Vo ‘Euganeo highlight two very important information: “the percentage of infected people, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases above all, but not only, among young people; and the isolation of asymptomatics is essential to be able to control the spread of the virus and the severity of the disease “. For Romagnani, what is now crucial in the battle against the virus is “trying to flush out asymptomatic people who are already infected because nobody fears or isolates them. This is particularly true for categories such as doctors and nurses who frequently develop an infection. asymptomatic by continuing to spread the infection between them and their patients. ” And again: “It is being decided not to swab doctors and nurses again unless they develop symptoms. But in light of the results of Vo ‘study, this decision can be extremely dangerous; hospitals risk becoming areas of high prevalence of infected in which no infected is isolated “. In Vo ‘- Romagnani points out – with the isolation of infected subjects, the total number of patients fell from 88 to 7 (at least 10 times less) within 7-10 days. The isolation of the infected (symptomatic or non-symptomatic) was not only able to protect other people from contagion, but also appeared to protect against the serious evolution of the disease in infected subjects because the cure rate in infected patients, if isolated, was in 60% of cases equal to only 8 days.

    https://www.repubblica.it/salute/medicina-e-ricerca/2020/03/16/news/coronavirus_studio_il_50-75_dei_casi_a_vo_sono_asintomatici_e_molto_contagiosi-251474302/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I251454518-C12-P3-S2.4-T1&fbclid=IwAR0ffRDvT33GUCfzYeMoSrH3zoaPjGFPJe2pKEZbo5qvc-gfuwvIM9PAkOE&refresh_ce

    • Bat Eater

      That’s what it is. China’s gift to the world. Due to either appalling hygiene (cutting up vermin at the Wuhan wet market) or escaped the Wuhan lab.

      China’s crime against humanity.

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