Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Well here with go again with more selling as the dead cat rolls over on Wall Street, knocking out the line of dead cat’s here in Asia (or is it just a flesh wound?) with stocks sold off across the board. Only the usual suspects like gold, yen and bonds are having any green on the board with record lows for bond yields and new yearly highs for gold.

The Shanghai Composite is down nearly 1% after the lunch break, currently hovering above 3040 points while the Hang Seng Index is off by more than 2% taking back its previous gains to be at 26193 points. This brings it nearly back to weekly support at the 26000 point level:

Japanese share markets are rolling over fast with more than 3% losses, hindered by a rapidly rising Yen with the Nikkei 225 about to close 3% lower at 20676 points. I’ve been saying for awhile that the USDJPY pair is the real proxy to watch and its falling fast as Yen is bought up quicker than Coles toilet paper – but by much smarter folks – now below the 106 handle:

The ASX200 is the winner today – only down 2.5% as bank stocks are hit hard while gold miners do a good trade, about to close at 6235 points while the Australian dollar is slowly hanging on here just below the 66 handle as momentum rolls over:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are rolling over going into the early European session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 forming a nice double bearish top and ready to reach the former lows in late February below the 2900 points level:

The economic calendar finishes the week wtih the big one – US unemplyoment or non-farm payrolls (NFP) that will set the course (maybe?) for risk taking for the rest of March. Well, at least til the next FOMC meeting.

Have a good weekend and for Dog’s sake, stop buying toilet paper! Just buy The Australian or Courier Mail or Daily Telegraph. Might be one ply, but proven to hold a lot of shit….

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Comments

  1. As requested I’m reporting back on the toe. I finally found out today (Medical practice had the wrong number so even though I called them daily I only just found out) that I have a BROKEN TOE!
    Yay! Super happy! Mum is super happy for me. Dad is the same. They made it past Tamworth Woolies without having a knife pulled on them but I don’t think they tried to buy TP.
    I’m all alone in my shut in glory. Work will pay out all my sick leave, then personal leave before moving onto annual leave so I’m getting my money before we go into shut down. Dr appointment on Tue morning. No wonder my ankle hurts after showering. I’m thinking I might shell out for a membership now that I’ve raided my first home saver account for Covid 19 emergency fund purposes. I could bug you all on more threads

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      You might just as well. I believe we only have days to live anyway. Death by lack of bog rolls. 😉

    • StomperMEMBER

      MAN UP – no need to take time off with a broken toe – I broke two last year and didn’t miss an hour of work.

      KIds today…….

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Gave Skip a run down on a WE about mine, they nearly amputated , broken, smashed the rest & degloved.stayed working for 3 hrs before hospital . Then carried on after that.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Well actually I’m a whimp when it comes to pain but for some reason maybe shock or nerves but big injuries don’t hurt and small pinpricks are hell. Same as when I broke my arm hang gliding the doctors didn’t believe it till the x rays came.

      • Unfortunately I have very strict fit for work requirements to meet and if something goes wrong at work we can end up in a coroner’s court and no one wants to explain why someone who was not fit for work was rostered on and how that May or may not have contributed to someone’s death, if the worst happened. In addition I unfortunately suffer from an auto immune disorder so I don’t exactly expect to have a very good chance at surviving Covid 19 despite being in a good age group. This broken toe gives me an excuse not to work for a few weeks, avoid intensive contact with the public and just enjoy life. I’m taking it as a blessing despite the painand discomfort

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Please note that we do not see “member” next to your name yet. Might is not “will”

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Your a good egg Pop.
      Welcome aboard.
      Like it or not your definitely one of us now.
      There is no escape.

  2. Well I’m officially funemployed after 11.5 years in the same company. Today was my last day. I feel relieved, and somewhat unshackled but also wondering what I’ll do next and if we are on the cusp on GFC 2.0 or not?

    • DominicMEMBER

      Just put your feet up for a couple of weeks and then think about it. 11.5yrs with one firm is a fair haul. Surely leaving drinks this arv / evening??

      • I’ve been with the same crew for 29 years in a variety of roles. The could reflect great loyalty, or perhaps lack of ambition. 11 years is a noob.

        • Loyalty. I’m kind of the same. I was very loyal to my employer and have never ripped the company off or rorted any benefits etc .. always spent company money like it was my own. Something that sadly a lot of employers don’t often reflect on.

          • DominicMEMBER

            I’m the same. My claim to fame is having a total of about 6 days of sick leave over a period of 20yrs. I’d go in to work, sick as a dog sometimes and grind my way through the day. Probably wasn’t appreciated by my colleagues but I always felt guilty not pitching up to work.

        • 29 years?!?!?!? Maaate, that’s just insane. I’ll admit working for one company from ’89 to ’07, but I owned the bluddy thing, so couldn’t exactly quit just because the boss gave me the sh!ts, otherwise I think my best run was 18 months…

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Whatever you do don’t lounge around too long like I’ve been doing, its so hard to snap out of it. Lucky you’ll have plenty to do with the cars and house. This will keep the mindset in gear for when a job presents.

      • Agree, I’ll do a bit of work on the car. May even join a friend down Warragul / Darnum way doing panel work on vintage cars for a month or 2. Try it out. Will not be paid much, but at least will cover the bills.

        In 2001 I didn’t get into the Uni course I wanted and I was told I could join as a part time student. So I did, but it meant my days were free. I didn’t find a job and ended up staying up late and waking up late. It was a hard cycle to break out of. I found myself feeling quite depressed. I’m sure a lot of people on Centrelink feel that way, just kind of useless and worthless. Not fun. Probably worst year of my life.

        • DominicMEMBER

          +1
          Centrelink is the ultimate double-edged sword. You get enough to just about survive but what you need more than anything is to feel valued, do something productive, give your life meaning etc. You can see why so many get swallowed by the Centrelink abyss eventually.

      • Go buy a rural property. The only problem is convincing your mates that you’ve had a change of career instead of “retired to the country.”

      • I was a Google Analytics specialist for the past 11.5 years. I may stay in that field or try something new. I haven’t decided yet. Got a couple of interviews lined up next week. But need a good month off to relax and recharge so will see how I go.

        • DominicMEMBER

          Serious question: the Google Analytics thing – is there a real art to it? It seems all very black box to me. Can the right person make a material difference or is it really just about paying up for exposure? Say, from the perspective of an online retail store ..

          • Very very few people actually understand Google Analytics. How it measures and what the metrics mean and how to actually make the best use out of it.

            I actually understand it at a very very deep level. Which is probably why I was paid so much. But using it correctly can absolutely make a difference to a business. But the tool like many others is only as good as the analyst and the person using it, plus if the set up is good. Garbage in and Garbage out.

            You can now export the data to BigQuery and join it with other datasets. This can be really powerful in the right hands. I think the future will be using machine learning to find trends and insights. Something very few are doing right now.

            All the big Tech companies get off on Big Data for a reason.

            Data Science is becoming a huge field and has massive salaries. $250k+.. hence I’ve been thinking of starting my own agency that delivers this kind of thing to business..

          • @Gav no disrespect but I reckon that sh!t is way overrated. Mostly it is about low hanging fruit which you don’t need particularly large datasets nor clever algorithms to detect. Anything else requires a level of statistical power which lacks useful probability and therefore is a waste of time.
            Happy to hear if I’m wrong, tell me.

          • @JohnR it depends you can certainly burn a lot of capital and time analysing data. It’s a bit like this blog you look at what the data is saying about the economy and make a decision on how you will respond and position your assets etc..

            It’s a bit the same with web analytics it can tell you the raw numbers but you need to decide how to make changes and respond to the data. A lot of people don’t respond to the data successfully. Another tool I supported for 10+ years is/was Google Optimise (A/B testing tools) which uses statistical data to help make decisions based on different designs or user experiences but it’s not without limits and again requires testing the right things and there are many pitfalls.

            Do I agree it’s a bit overrated? To an extent yes. But again depends on what you’re trying to do and if you’re willing to adjust your strategy based on the data.

            I saw a job role at EA which involved analysing mobile game data and making decisions on how to respond to the data and ensure max revenue via in game purchases / upgrades etc . I absolutely believe that it’s possible to tune an in-game experience using data in the same way you can tune an engine on a dyno. But some things are worth pursuing and some are not.

            Too often management who have no idea what they are doing focus on the wrong things…

            1 other thing I’ll add is that some Business has the volume of data to tune for small change, Facebook is addictive because they use data to make decisions on how they engage with their users. I’m almost certain Facebook has timed alerts that dribble feed updates to keep you on the page. Infinite scroll etc.

            Google search results colours of links and number of links are the results of experiments run across millions of searches. Something most companies don’t have access to is that volume of data.

          • @Gav thanks for the thoughtful reply. I suppose my view perhaps echoed in your post is that for complex problems you have to be first immersed in the data, and after that the data/statistical solutions can be applied.

        • DominicMEMBER

          Thanks for the rundown. There are heaps of people out there claiming they can do it but I always suspected few could deliver.

          I tried to get a guy from Northern Ireland (based here) to help me out with GA on my business – he came highly recommended by a mate of mine – but by the time I got in touch he’d moved up in the world and was working with some big accounts. Way out of my league. I’m sorry I wasn’t able to explore the true potential of the business but that’s life I guess.

          It sounds to me like you’ll have no trouble getting work or starting up on your own. Good people in this field are gold dust from what I can see.

          • I’ve been with the product since its launch in 2005. 1 thing I’ve learnt is that a lot of reports we provide are actually not that useful. The real power is in crunching the data and applying it to the goals of your business. (So more so bespoke solutions).

            If you need a hand with it, give me a shout. I have plenty of time at the moment and it’s always helpful for me to see where the gaps are for people when they first look at it. It’s certainly more complex now than when I started.

          • Trigger Finger

            Google Analytics or improved Google ranking – two extraordinarily different things.

            I have built a tool which targets ranking – its a combination of Hoot, Sales force, Word Press, Mail Chimp, plus media creating software – it basically lands people on the front page if their website is what it says it is – as in “I do accupuncture” – bang. Front page.

            It integrates everything with analytics to a basic level – but analyzing that data – back to you Gav.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            Gav, definitely start your own business, the rewards for someone clever in this country with cheap labour if ya want it are huge. Got a cousin started out on his own, big risk big debt, geo mapping with drones and is now rolling in it. If your young and smart start your own business, pretend your huge, be prepared to suck public service a$$, and you’ll make a shit load more then being employed

          • I used to work in the field of SEO but then progressed onto paid search campaigns because SEO can take ages for some small companies and paid search was instant. Then as a result of managing paid search clients wanted to analyse the performance and that was when I ended up going into Google Analytics. I haven’t done much SEO for clients now for 10+ years.

          • Thanks Gav. I’m actually in the process of winding my business down so have paused all my Google campaigns etc. I arrived at the conclusion that I’m in a market segment that cannot possibly succeed given the business size and scale I’d need to compete and so decided to not plough any more capital into it. It was a tough call but the right call.

            I have a mate who has a wildly successful business making colouring for plastic mouldings: everything from water tanks to food packaging to wheelie bins. But it’s a niche business. That’s when the penny dropped for me – the only small businesses that survive and prosper are those that those that operate in these niche areas – I was just another online retailer trying to undercut the big boys. Very profitable at first but eventually they catch up and crush you.

            Funnily enough I am having a lot of success moving stock through a platform called Catch of the Day – and am benefitting from their scale (and clever algorithms. I’m sure).

    • There has never been a better time to take on a mortgage and become unemployed.

      Ignore the others. Find a job whilst you still can. A permanent government job will be priceless over the next couple years. Not the time to be chasing a top dollar contract or temp role.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yep, the first thing I looked for after the failed first attempt at retirement. A gubmint job.

        My timing may have been a bit better than Gav’s though. He’s toast. Good isolation for the new bub but.

      • Friend of mine works in the Defence Force, has been there for 20+ years and said I should join. Never saw myself joining any kind of military or combat type organisations.

        • Trigger Finger

          Someone I know works in defense – works on government / military stuff with Raytheon who run Australias back bone – interesting that there is a full fiber network in Australia with most of it redundant and more than enough for everyone – except you know, its just for them….as always.

          • Way back in ’07 I sold my IT consultancy & went to work for a pommy multinational Defence/Security/Aerospace mob, on the assumption that security was the most secure employment for the future. The internal politics had me worn down inside of 18 months.
            Now I raise animals and sell them as chops and sausages at farmers markets for around three bucks an hour. Life is awesome…

      • Funny re: timing I joined my employer in Sept 2008 a month or so later the GFC hit. Some jobs got axed, I was lucky mine didn’t. Company did well even through the GFC. So I was fortunate whilst many Irish were not. I always thought about that event and how I didn’t want to be in the same predicament. Funny how life turns out.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          You bought a fckn house. In Australia.

          You never have to have a go at anything. Ever. Again. It’s a law.

          • You’re not having a go until you have a few IPs rented out to 10 vibrants at a time. Get off your arse Gav and have a real go, I’ll send you some thoughts and prayers.

            Reus!! Where ever you are come slap some sense into this kid, but don’t slap him with your hand.

          • TTW this is true, I shall wait 7 years and my $1m shall be worth $2m and I’ll be a multi-millionaire. How good is having gos?

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Don’t just sit around playing computer games.
      You need to set yourself some kind of goal.
      Like how many wanks you can pull off in one day.
      I achieved 11 in an 8 hour period, one day when home from School “sick”.
      The last few were quite painful but the sence of achievement you feel after achieving a difficult goal is well worth the effort.

  3. DominicMEMBER

    Well, that’s a relief because all I own is gold and bonds (TIPs)

    Gold is sniffing a huge global co-ordinated print-fest. On deck soon.

      • DominicMEMBER

        No idea – I’m about to find out. I shouldn’t be so lazy – I should look up the historical data and share it with you.

        But what I’m fairly confident of is the fact that there has never been a significant period in the modern era with deflation – maybe briefly during the GFC – that’s when the Fed [email protected] itself and turned on the printers.

        As for my inflation-linked bonds: I bought in 2014 and they have returned a total of c.50% over that period. Not outstanding but not too shabby. I should have invested in US stocks over that period – but it’s easy to say in hindsight.

        • To answer your previous question about Rothbard –

          Then there is the whole Mount Pelerin debacle and Friedman’s watering down of Austrian doctrine and fobbing it off to the public in form of monetarism and public choice theory.

          [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mont_Pelerin_Society]

          Despite its efforts to reach a broader audience, libertarianism is a marginal discourse and it probably always will be (political cults without real power are always marginal – because they’re so extreme that the majority will not accept them, but may have them imposed on them by the state). But it lingers around the internet, derailing many economic and political debates.

          Libertarians – and their Austrian brethren – since they are, at heart, metaphysicians and cultists, are often proselytizing rather than engaging in a discussion, even about the most mundane and non-theoretical of topics; such as, say, the structure of the modern banking system. Anything that calls into question any of their principles is quickly steamrolled over with either mounds of rhetoric or sophistical arguments. – snip

          https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/12/philip-pilkington-the-austrian-disease-poor-scholarship-a-priori-bias.html

          The word libertarian originally meant anarchist, or libertarian socialist, in the sense of someone who is wary of authority in general, whether coming from the state or from property rights arrangements. However, libertarian as used today more typically refers to right-libertarians like Robert Nozick, Ayn Rand, Milton Friedman, and Murray Rothbard. For a more complete discussion of the different uses of the word libertarian, Karl Widerquist has written a nice essay on the subject. – snip

          https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/01/journey-libertarian-future-response-reader-comments-2.html

          Hope it assists in removing your opinion on CT WRT to the topic and no you don’t have to be a gold bug to be Austrian.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Libertarians certainly produce voluminous writings, but for the layperson they pretty much all inevitably boil down to two things:
            * The most important (if not only) metric of “freedom” is (lack of) taxation; and
            * Me want, fvck you

            The former is why authoritarian or actively regulated countries can still get the libertarian tick of approval and the latter is why, well, fvck you.

          • DominicMEMBER

            Philip Pilkington writes multiple paragraphs which can be distilled to:
            – Rothbard said there’d be bank runs and ‘immediate’ hyperinflation (and there wasn’t) therefore all of Libertarianism and Austrian economics is a pile of crap.
            – He said something really, really nasty about a hero of mine, Polanyi, therefore he’s a cad and a charlatan.

            The guy is a towering intellect. But lap it all up, skip — it’s a free world 😉

            Btw, who is Philip Pilkington? Never heard of him and nor has anyone else. The MSM will discover him soon given the extraordinary credibility he clearly has. 😉

    • everyone knows I traded gold stocks for last 12 months. This is what I did today..
      I sold out of everything except for some ALK shares. My call is that there will be production interruptions that will cause many commodities to go up and gold will go doubly up. But, my expectations are for miner’s share to fall on the back of fear that miners will not be able to have full productions – which will be the case for few months/quarters. WHen that happens I am jumping in.
      If that does not happen and gold miners runaway then I am fckd fckn.

      • Problem with Jr gold miners is the industry is chocker with fraud, from numbers that make China blush too investor driven scams … old as the hills as they say …

      • GeordieMEMBER

        It’s always a good time to jump on an up trend as long as you’re prepared to get back out.

        Preserve your capital is the golden rule.

      • AbagnaleMEMBER

        Can always buy producers in equatorial regions to avoid that, never saw the value in ALK.

      • DominicMEMBER

        Just be careful with the declining gold production meme — it applies to commodities only and gold ain’t one of those. Nearly all the gold that has ever been mined by humans still exists and is (largely) available for sale into the market i.e. there is c. 195,000 tonnes of gold available as supply (with varying immediacy). It should be analyzed as a currency, not a commodity. Commodities are consumed, gold is not.

      • Bold move.

        I’ve also recently sold all my gold, and will watch the market for a few weeks, before deciding to either get back in again, or be glad that I sold close to the peak (perhaps).

        • well I may miss a massive wave (on Au stocks) but if my assumption is right and we do see production disruptions share rices of all miners will fall a lot. this will be the moment to get in and double or triple your money inside 6-12 months – if you are in the right stocks. I already have a list of Au, Au/Cu, Ni and Zn stocks. Just waiting to see if couple of miners announce mine closures due to covid-19.

  4. I’m gonna buy another gun. CZ-75 SP-02 Shadow 2 is the current favourite. Any other shooters among the shutins got any thoughts?

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Don’t change your name like Niko did, one gun abreviation is enough.
      Wouldn’t be that hard to make one.

      • Actually, Boom, making guns is hard. Two hardest things are boring a straight barrel, then rifling it. A small number of people in any country usually take care of all work. Check it on the interwebs.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Just alluding to something I did in 70s many many years ago, but didn’t do the rifling as used that part from another, the rest wasn’t that hard.

    • Class H ? I only have some rifles for the livestock, but love going to my regular shop, and looking..

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Being on friendly terms with your neighbors is more useful. Someone might have to spoon soup into your mouth…

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I’m gonna get the hippy university greenie lecturer over the road to do it. The open borders and let’s not be racialist to students one. I’m the handy neighbourhood bloke who does blokey things for her.

        She can return the favour and wander over to risk her life to feed the Bogans. Seems only fitting.

        That’s if she’s not dead. She always looks kinda frail.

    • Looks nice & ergo, good long dovetail for balancing….. I played with an older model & it handled nice, but I’ve always grouped better with a Python – fwiw.

    • DominicMEMBER

      I presume you need to be a member of a gun club to own a weapon (outside of farming)?

      • HEAVILY Policed & Scrutineered to the point of hardly being worth it, but, as it has to be in today’s fubar world.

      • Hi Dom, nephew just got his licence.From filling out the first form, to attending the training day, took roughly 12 months.
        Joining a gun club, in my mind ( If not on the land ) is definitely a great idea.A lot of folks in different age groups that are more than keen to share advice.I pop into my local a couple of times a year when I can.Very good for the new members to understand about the safety aspect and good to see such a variety of guns up close, to gather pros and cons of each model.

        • Safety course in shop
          License app
          Permit to acquire
          First firearm
          Took me maybe a month

          Nsw

          I’m on land though so had PP genuine reason needed letter from accountant stating I was PP

          Nsw registry very helpful

        • DominicMEMBER

          12 months – that’s hardcore. I could be mincemeat in that time. I’ve availed myself of 2 dry powder fire extinguishers, a few cricket bats and a pick-axe in the meanwhile. My issue is that I’d need to do all this under cover as the missus would likely take exception. I only really want to protect my property and my chilluns at the end of the day – what a pallaver

          • Not sure how one would go about it or that one would even want to but black market guns are flourishing right now. Here in SE Qld I’ve been astounded by the quantity and quality of firearms being seized in drug raids lately. The most astounding part is how small time and stupid these dealers are, must be easy if these simpletons are doing it. If someone really wanted an apocalypse piece it appears pretty easy to get…..

          • I am most definitely not involved in any form of law enforcement lol. Just love me some local crime news and have been genuinely surprised by the amount of guns in the news lately. Especially the quality handguns and rifles, we’re not seeing the dodgy old revolvers and sawn off single shot lithgow .22s and and .410s we were seeing 15 years ago. A lot of these very low level dealers are getting pinched with glocks, very new bolt action rifles and decent shotguns.

      • Incorrect
        As I said to you last week – and this is NSW perspective

        Option 1 – you’re on land and can get a primary producer genuine reason. If small acreage cat A only – need larger acreage for cat b (centrefire / more dangerouser)
        Option 2 – neighbour or friend gives your RHVC genuine reason
        Option 3 – join sporting shooters plus hunting – my brother in metro Melb goes deer hunting with centrefire brownings and is getting a 303 ….

        Got an ex Melb mate in metro act with an extraordinary amount of firepower

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          When I was a little kid, 1950s, found a 303 near Swanbourn rifle range much to the dismay of the folks so I hid it in the backyard but couldn’t find it again.

        • Yep, I’m metro and I would need to have a very good reason to own a firearm – even if we do get some fck off big snakes on the property. I think a gun club is my only real option tbh. I’m not really a fan of guns but have fired a few over the years. I just want some protection as I think society is about to suffer a serious ‘adjustment’ that could lead to a spike in crime. For a time at least.

          • Dom. Unless you sleep with it under your pillow (obviously illegal) you won’t have time to get it all out! Even if it is under your pillow you’ll be too overwhelmed to match an already ultra adrenalined raider & probably shoot your missus – they’re harder to use than the movies suggest, & then there’s your adrenaline spike on a sleep addled mind/body…… Probably better for the 2 of you to practice & get familiar/confident with a few home utensils if you’re concerned. Consider house layout…. better if they don’t even know you’re even there! Run, hide, shield, barrier, snare, slash or stab. As much as I can’t stand it, watch Home Alone through a martial/medieval lens…. a good way to bring it into the family consciousness & start the talk? ….. Never forget – “Till you get punched in the mouf….” Keep your composure….

    • Are you cat C or D – I think you’re in AcT ?

      My mate just got a very nice lee Enfield 303

      What about something creedmore related

      I’m tempted toward a LA of some sort but would need to got cat B. Wife still thinks there will never be need even for a pea shooter 410 (I do want an O/U 12G) not to mention the 22 WMR savage that kind of just appeared in the safe

      • The 410 will hit as hard as a 12gauge with the same size shot, just a fair bit less lead – up close it won’t matter. LSW is talking Pistols/Cat H – Club, Security, Police only afaik. .22WMR is good enough for small, or medium close in farm work too.

        If you want a centrefire, join a club or genuine reason. Intended use should guide what you buy (eg .223 is plenty for spotlighting distances, but too light for Deer). Most of these different calibres are a bit like the tackle shop where they’re there to sucker the fishermen’s money, not to catch fish. So many very similar & just subject to marketing. Most are as tight as each other out of the box now & usually tight enough for hunting on factory loads. But some carry kinetics better, & some hold the wind better if you’re after reach & some aren’t nice on your shoulder. Target work is another level of understanding, time, energy, money….. Consistency! fwiw.

  5. Had a meeting with some Mac Bank folk today – after introductions I went to shake hands – “sorry new company policy – can’t shake your hand”. They’ve also banned all global travel and have restricted the amount of employees who can attend a meeting together.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Hey… what was your thinking *yesterday* about why you thought ASX might end up with a sub-6 handle?

      As of 1030 this morning I could see that happening, but not last night. And I was looking hard… (for four days as it happens).

      Anyway, great call. I don’t think anyone will begrudge you a duece of points. Mig 1 – RoW 0.

      +5999.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Ta. Me too.

          Was 100% in Bonds until the day before the Fed cut 50bps out of cycle. Sad day. Happy previous couple of weeks though.

          Had thought yields were gonna bounce, even after that. Was very wrong. But hey, VIX at 47! 🙌

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Classic weasel words. “Notional Bushfire Recovery Fund”.

      Notional.

      Such a deliberately crafted lie, effortlessly delivered in the middle of a national disaster.

      What a paltering chunt.

      • The Lotional Bushfire Recovery Fund… it puts the funding in the basket or else it gets the hose again…

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Indeed. Almost as good as:
        “Future fund” and
        “Efficiency dividend”.

        Almost. But not quite.

        Actually if these ASX ructions keep going, they’re going to have to come up with a new name for “Super” as well! 💷💶💴😨

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Are you really going to make me google. Really? paltering. On a Friday… fckn.

        OK then. 👍

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          To talk or act insincerely; equivocate; deal crookedly.

          ‘Inwardly he had a profound suspicion that the tall man was paltering with the truth.’ – Norman Lindsay 1913

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            I did already. No need to rub it in. Unless it’s lotion. That’s ok. 😀

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      If anyone gets Teh Virus then reading Scummo’s daily diary is a must-do. Infecting him should be a national aim. Look at the fat slob, he’d be dead in a week.

      #CoughOnScummo

    • Saw that yesterday. Hopefully as reliable as v-tec.

      I wouldn’t mind if they made it possible on older motors too like the HKS Vcam for RB26 gives it variable valve timing.

      • Elegant in it’s simplicity for what it does, but more moving parts than Vtec….. Time will tell. Our old motors are falling behind bit by bit 🙁 But Boost still trumps a lot of it, well for power at least 🙂

        • Modern computers are a big factor. It’s now quite common to have 1000hp rb26s roaming the streets but in the 90s. 500-600hp was a lot and not always reliable either.

          I saw a 1JZ Chaser today drive by me in South Melbourne with a bit of turbo flutter. Sounded good. 90s JDM is the best!

          But I still love my old Nissan L-series. If money were no object is install a twin cam O.S Giken head…
          https://youtu.be/gv-PKw9k2XY

    • Excellent teacher. Did seem like a big effort for a few percent differences, but i guess Hyundai are thinking about the fleet rather than the individual user.

      • Yeah, but he’s also talking peak for numbers, torque band will be higher, more tractable in a wider rev range – making a small motor feel a bit bigger.

      • Cam timing and lift can make huge difference to engine performance. The problem in the past was that tuning for top end often caused poor fuel consumption and horrible low down drivability, this variable timing gives best of both worlds, it may seem incremental but couple it with new technology and electronic control and engines are becoming far more efficient and powerful for the same displacement.

        But.. still the biggest issue is conversion of fuel into mechanical movement. Only 30% of fuel burnt goes to turning wheels (in the best engines) and the rest is lost via heat/friction and noise.

  6. Benjamin Netanyahu encourages ‘Namaste’ greeting in place of handshakes during coronavirus outbreak

    https://www.newsweek.com/benjamin-netanyahu-encourages-namaste-greeting-place-handshakes-during-coronavirus-outbreak-1490622

    India’s namaste is ready to make a world comeback due to coronavirus

    Namaste is in, handshakes and hugs are out. German Chancellor Angela Merkel learnt that when her Interior Minister Horst Seehofer refused to shake hands with her.

    Trump even called handshake a ‘barbaric’ practice.

    https://theprint.in/opinion/pov/indias-namaste-is-ready-to-make-a-world-comeback-due-to-coronavirus/375121/

    17 March 2017

    Trump refuses to shake Angela Merkel’s hand

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      This is one of those child-proof thingys right? Typically I struggle with those.
      Might have to get one of the

    • Neighbors getting it on when the houses are half a meter apart will certainly not require one… though if they’re fatties you may choose not to watch, unless you’re into BBW

  7. Trigger Finger

    NBN is going to collapse when people start being forced to stay at home both working and binging on games and netflix – no chance it can hold up – absolutely ZERO – imagine the country without internet….this is gunna be great.

    ….

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      If this thing lasts longer than 2 weeks, netflix is going to lose a lot of subs.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Remember how people were saying before the Federal election in May last year that Labor would end up being grateful that they snapped defeat from the jaws of victory?

      For Labor, it will surely now be somewhat (ironically) satisfying to see Scotty from Marketing, Josh Rainbowberg, Angus, Matthias and the rest of the LNP crew having to deal with, among other things, the SHTF in the tourism, education and mining sectors and with Malcolm’s better, sooner, cheaper NBN.

      At least, the LNP can comfort themselves that they are just doing their gods’ work (whomever they may be).

  8. Wow, us 3m just shot up 30% while 10y yield collapses. Might have inverted the curve again. Crazy movements

  9. happy valleyMEMBER

    Presumably, the US Treasury and Fed’s PPT will be putting in some hard yards overnight?

  10. The Traveling Wilbur

    Fun fact: (for anyone playing at home)

    We just surpassed the last ASX reset, the one starting Aug 2018. Over 800 points down and counting.

    • Poor Fellow My Country

      Next Friday’s prefix s gonna be a 5.

      This thing’s going down faster than an 02 tank in the Apollo 13 service module

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        That’s assuming the ASX is still open for trading and not closed due to coronavirus outbreak.

        • China PlateMEMBER

          Now there’s a thought
          Close the asx to preserve profits
          Let the F1 fly to well preserve profits

  11. Turns out Brisbane people are racialist and don’t make risotto. My woolies rice section was completely pilfered except for a full shelf of arborio rice. Really hope quarantine happens so I can show off all my delicious risotto while all the uncultured swine eat their boring steamed rice.

    Pasta section only moderately depleted, tinned food fully stocked, same with jars of pasta sce, curry sce, etc. so people only buying rice and bog roll. Meanwhile I’m loading up on fresh fruit in the delusion that eating it all now will make up for years of kfc and alcoholism and make me fit enough overnight to survive the pandemicpocalypse…..

  12. DoctorDisgustingMEMBER

    I’m curious to hear the MB brains trust take on the ethics of panic buying. Last weekend I did a big shop of basics and advised my family to do the same (no stockpiling, just picking up a bit extra), not because I think this is the end times, but to avoid the inconvenience of the shops running out in the event of mass hysteria. Bog roll madness has vindicated that advice.

    I’m predicting the next and more serious panic will be about pharmaceuticals so went to the pharmacy today to get a few extra scripts. The pharmacist said a lot of other people were doing the same and they were struggling to restock.

    Now the thing is I know my rational (in my view) behaviour is fueling the risk of a supply shortage as much as anyone going on like a pork chop. And I am worried about vulnerable people who might not have the option and are more at risk of missing out. But at this stage I feel like the spread of panic buying is inevitable and don’t want to be the one who misses out. So am I just as selfish as the dunny roll hoarders?

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “I am worried about vulnerable people who might not have the option and are more at risk of missing out.”

      Thats why im hording all these tins of Baked beans.
      So that I may assist these vulnerable people by selling my cans of BB to them at only a small profit,…of say,…not more than,…500%.
      Its this kind of caring and Solidarity that keeps communities thriving and together in troubled times.

    • I think a bit of stocking up is prudent. Hoarding 100+ bog rolls really starts to get you into selfish cvnt territory IMO. I am doing TAFE at the moment and one of my very young classmates and I were talking about the virus. She is of course house sharing with mates and on Austudy and telling me she has about $60 a fortnight to stock up on bulk food items. Problem is, every bastard is stocking up on these staples now so when it comes around to her getting her payment, the shelves may be empty. I imagine this scenario plays out with a lot of pensioners too.
      Moral of the story I guess is, stock up, but have some thought for others less able to do it on a whim, because they might have to wait a fortnight and the timing might just mean they miss out on sh!t they really need.

    • Those with endocrine issues might want to ensure supply

      Wife seeing endo wed I said make sure you get scripts for 6m supply

    • IMO it is a good thing people are panicking now whilst supermarkets are still able to restock. The problem is with those hoarding for profit or Armageddon. I could forgive the latter but those hoarding for profit deserve their tyres slashed.

      Medicine was always going to be a problem. You can only look after your own.

      • I plan on giving myself the best chance of doing that. Finished stocking up on everything I need that makes me semi human last week. I’ll use every single mineral and vitamin and pain killer I bought, plus some I couldn’t get (why was codeine made prescription?)

        • Very upset about the codeine. Had a surgical tooth extraction last week and the bloody dentist said panadol would be fine and didn’t write me a script. Yes, he was right, I didn’t “need” codeine but I might have been a bit more functional if I had it!!!!! I only ever mildly overused codeine and mostly just used it for the odd worse than normal pain and hate that it’s now prescription only.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            I only ever mildly abused ice and only ever used it for the occasional 8 day bender.

    • Fun fact: people who spell remuneration as renumeration also have problems with abdominable … and pacific instead of specific

    • Fuk off with your idpol nonsense thanks

      Female politicians are equally despicable

      And a heavily cut video posted by the “victim” proves absolutely nothing

      Hang both of them

    • Funny how all the bleeding left journos only seem to be worried about Chinese restaurants. Never mind the multitude of other businesses that will go to the brink during this pandemic. It’s all about saving Chinese restaurants for some bizzare reason.

      The funniest part of it is that these restaurants get the vast majority of their business from CHINESE people. The tourist trade dropping of is a major factor, but it’s the other large factor is the local CHINESE people avoiding them. I guess it’s only us white guys that never eat there are racist because we aren’t going there now to help a business that couldn’t have given a sh!t about our patronage just two months ago. Go figure.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        The majority of people who frequented the now empty restaurants in Box Hill were Chinese. You’d think they might know a thing or two about what’s happening back ‘home’.

      • Yep, ABC radio were shedding tears for the Brissy Chinese stalwarts this morning — this obsession with the perceived ‘downtrodden minorities’ is wearing me down. Nothing else matters but the virtue. Where’s the farckin substance?

    • Pity Golden Century is one of the better restaurants around. Sad to see it go, but hell no, I’m not stepping in there. Can’t risk an infected chef sneezing on my lobster fried rice.

      • I used to eat there regularly. Duck San Chow Bau, Pippies in XO sauce, Salt and Pepper Mudcrab and Ginger and shallow lobster were the best but they charge like wounded bulls.
        I don’t have too much sympathy for those sorts of restaurants as the workers are all fresh off the boat, paid in cash and the business wouldn’t be declaring all their takings.

  13. China used locational and other data from hundreds of millions of smartphones to contain the spread of Covid-19, according to Chinese sources familiar with the program.

    In addition to draconian quarantine procedures, which kept more than 150 million Chinese in place at the February peak of the coronavirus epidemic, China used sophisticated computational methods on a scale never attempted in the West.

    With more than 80,000 cases registered, China reported only 126 new cases yesterday, compared to 851 in South Korea and 835 in Iran, out of a total of 1,969 new cases worldwide. Chinese sources emphasize that the artificial intelligence initiative supplemented basic public health measures, which centered on quarantines and aggressive efforts to convince Chinese citizens to change their behavior.

    Chinese government algorithms can estimate the probability that a given neighborhood or even an individual has exposure to Covid-19 by matching the location of smartphones to known locations of infected individuals or groups. The authorities use this information to use limited medical resources more efficiently by, for example, directing tests for the virus to high-risk subjects identified by the artificial intelligence algorithm.

    All smartphones with enabled GPS give telecom providers a precise record of the user’s itinerary. Smartphone users in the United States and Europe can access their own data, but privacy laws prevent the government from collecting this data. China has no such privacy constraints, and telecom providers have used locational data for years for advertising.

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/china-suppressed-covid-19-with-ai-and-big-data/

    • Great propaganda. Big brother saves your life! Learn to love him!

      Pity the Chinese virus stats are garbage.

    • Damn privacy laws not keeping us safe! Surrender your liberties. Big Brother knows what’s best for you!

      Forgot to mention. Thingy..

      • I seem to remember technoglibertarians telling us meta data and increased electronic devices would fix everything … remember Gates had a big part in EULA et al … oops and code is proprietary so there is that little property issue …

        • After quitting my job I’m seriously considering installing every privacy measure possible to prevent tracking of my data and usage. I’ve seen what can be inferred via meta data alone. This Chinese example could be used to round you up for the wrong political beliefs like in the 1930s but far easier thanks to technology now.

  14. The Traveling Wilbur

    Oh. Sweeeet.

    Bunnamagoo. 2014.

    Do yourselves a favour.
    Second bottle, a week apart. Both awesome. Chunts.
    Don’t say you weren’t told.

    • Unless it’s at dans most won’t bother, we’re all sheeple like that no matter how much we deny it.

      To this point – stop raving about wines I can’t get at dans you horrible beast!!!!

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You’re one of the very few lucky chunts mate. Charm Sushi. Edward St. $24.99 a bottle. Smooth as a $60.00 bottle and then some. Better than Hardys at $50 plus. But you do have to like your Cab Savs on the not-rough-trade-doesn’t-bite-your-face-off side. Also, leave open to breathe.

        • hmmmmm me in city wearing hazmat suit buying wine

          edit: Now I see where you’re talking about, might try a sneaky midday dash tomorrow lathered in hand sanitiser sans hazmat

    • 2014 Bunnamagoo Estate Cabernet Shiraz Merlot – $288.00!!

      I’m mixing in the wrong circles.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Just the Cab Sav. Unfortunately.

        I bought six. The nice Korean gentleman behind the counter was visibly bemused.

  15. Who dares to guess what happens to US markets tonight?
    my call:
    DOW to fall between 800 and 1100 points and gold to top $1700usd. 10Y to set a record.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Looks like Europe ain’t too confident. I wonder if those 54 thousand Iranian criminals have reached there yet?

    • At some point the jackasses piling into the 10yr are going to wake up and realise they’re in the wrong asset. Let’s consider the risk reward:

      – cash paying small overnight return (risk free)
      – 10yr Treasury paying 0.85% (substantial capital risk as a result of duration)

      If you understand risk in any way shape or form being in the 10yr Treasury right now is suicide (unless you’re a swing trader). At some point folks in the 10yr are going to get burned v. badly.

          • here from 3 days ago but I did say this many times before. Even though i was not very clear as my second sentence was meant for commodities prices but I did not specify that.

            NikoMEMBER
            March 3, 2020 at 2:39 pm

            my take is all commodities will rally at some point as CBs cut rates and govs world over start to introduce fiscal. However, I now do expect to first see much bigger market falls before any of the above happens – as long as covid19 keep spreading at this rate.

        • You very rarely sell at the top. The 10yr is at extremes now. The downside is potentially large.

  16. This whole article made me laugh. A lot. Probably good fodder for a full MB post tomorrow too.

    https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/chinas-proposed-immigration-changes-spark-xenophobic-backlash-online/


    The latest proposed changes to China’s immigration system are designed to attract a limited number of experts, specialists, and high-income individuals who can contribute significantly to China. Yet Chinese internet users are not showing any signs of support. There were more than 70,000 comments under the original Ministry of Justice Weibo post, which later got censored because of the backlash. The ministry closed down comments on the post announcing the legislative proposal for granting permanent resident status to foreign nationals.

    According to an Initium News report, the majority of people in Chinese society believe that foreign nationals have been granted privileges and special status that they do not deserve. Some critics point out the unequal treatment between local Chinese and foreign nationals, accusing the Chinese government of opening up immigration while still having population planning policies to restrict the number of children Chinese nationals can have.

    It is also important to note the prevalence of hatred and racism among the voices speaking against China’s plan to attract foreign talents. From questioning the loyalties of individuals from a different race to propagating stereotypes about other ethnic groups, many internet users seem to be opposing the Chinese government’s immigration proposals not because of the potential impacts of the policies, but rather because of racial biases and prejudices.

    Funny old world

    • If I were an elderly person and suffering the elderly fella’s ‘drought’ I’d turn round to the missus and say: “We’re done for, let’s go out with a bang!” Obviously the cooking sherry could assist in all this.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      The passenger assassin doesn’t seem very assassiny. Work experience kid?

    • It used to be a way for them to carjack you. Bump into your car & when you get out, you had a whole carload of trouble coming for your keys……

    • haven’t read the article but I’ve been thinking about BBBs for last few months now.. If we enter some turbulence like now most of the BBBs will be moving into CCCs and I am not sure there is enough bid in the Junk market to support them – not at current rates so IRs will go up in the Junk world. There will be mass defaults so FED will need to bail these corporations and this why gold get lot of bidding now.
      Is this right?

    • Yep, this is the real story. Balance sheets have been levered up to the max, which means that the flip-side is a huge wave of capital raising is coming OR a total wipe out of the capital base. Either way this is extremely ugly for stocks. I don’t get why investors can’t see this — oh, that’s right mom ‘n pop have entrusted their money to passive tracker funds, effectively removing professionals from the decision making process. Do these retards actually understand what they’ve done? Obviously not – and they’ll die poor as a result. So much blood will be spilt in the coming years. How do you go long suicide? Coffin manufacturers?

    • As they say, never let a good crisis go to waste. Bad / controversial news is always snuck out under cover of darkness. Pollies never change.

  17. The Traveling Wilbur

    Looks like you can’t spell DAX without crapping oneself. Required reading. (only a lazy 3.5%),(down)

  18. The Traveling Wilbur

    And… the VIX is at 47+. Again.

    Whocoodanode. (no, not futures VIX; actual VIX. on a Friday. Before US markets open)

    Could not possibly imagine what happens next. It would be unpossible to do so.

    • ew are going to Mudgee tomorrow so I can’t stay up for long but it feels this one will be one to remember. 10Y says it all.

    • Spend the night drinking heavily and wishing you’d had the guts to short the fck out of the ASX. I know I will.

      • Engaged in the first of those but didn’t manage the latter. The volatility is too great right now – the average Joe would get cleaned up. Even the pros. This is unprecedented.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Totally! But it has to be too early for the shorts. The water is still being sucked out for the Tsunami.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I’m going to spend the rest of the night drinking and reflecting on my restraint in forgoing the ‘obvious bounce’ markets were having this week. And then I’m buying some pillow covers. Suggest you do the same.

        (covers optional for you)

    • Circuit breakers may be in action by the end of the session. Investors finally waking up to the fact that:
      – the Fed can’t solve the problem
      – most countries have little or no defence against it.

      Tick, tock …

    • I’m HODLing for next few years. I had about $68k in S&P500 2 weeks ago. Probably down to $60k now. But not gonna worry. If it halves I’ll hold. Eventually it will bounce back up within a course of years. Good thing about having low debt, you can ride it out, not panic sell…

      • Ok I checked down to $58k so I’ve lost $10k. But have I really lost anything? A couple of months before it had gone up by $10k.. so money for nothing or easy come easy go.

          • Wonder how those kids who were advised to turbo charge their savings by margin lending are doing right now? Must be some sweaty palms.

        • Had only recently invested a similar amount, which truth be told is only a couple of months earnings and money that I’m not afraid to lose. Not sure if I have the normal attitude as a share investor – most people I know check things daily, but since investing have probably only logged in a couple of times. Then again, most people seem a lot more stressed out in general. If suppose if I was one of those FIRE types trying to live off their investments it’d probably be a different story.

          • I held a lot of stock over a long period. I only started to check the price regularly around the time I was looking to buy a house OR when I made an offer on a house because I wanted to know what I could offer and how much I would need to borrow.

            But otherwise I’d just leave it for long term growth to do it’s thing. Less stressful that way.

  19. China PlateMEMBER

    Almost 250 comments and no mig as yet
    Bring on the weekend links this is going to be one for the ages

  20. Bank holiday? Because ncov19…
    Never waste a crisis.
    Sorry – reply intended for wilbs above.

    • Bank holidays, stock markets shut, schools shut, work places shut – it’s all on the table.

      Get cash and get stocked up with food. Fill your vehicles up and some jerry cans. The lady at Coles said tonight that every shipment of TP that had come in had gone within half an hour – that’s insane. They are limiting customers to 4 ‘packs’ each, which is ridiculous as Woolies are limiting to one. They literally have people loitering around the shop waiting for the TP deliveries.

      • Dom, have you thought about taking 3-6 months off either long service, accrued leave etc, and getting a holiday rental in a little country town..? Less crime, less worry, just being able to concentrate on the family and breathe…Rents in.little known country places with populations under 200 ppl, have rents you would laugh at..or that might sway you to snatch a break..

        • I have, but thought of coming back after 6 mths to 15 people squatting in your house has put me off the idea !

        • On and off. The missus and I very nearly bought in the hinterland ages ago and then the reality of schooling the kids, snakes, maintaining the land, being so distant from friends etc all became too real. I love the idea but it remains a romantic notion for now.

    • Investors realising that, just maybe risk assets are a little over-valued? Perhaps they’ll take care over whose advice they listen to in future. Can’t wait for property to implode and for all the hard luck stories to appear on Current Affair – But we thought it was guaranteed riches!

      Fck the popcorn – I’ll be toasting it all with hard liquor.

      Watch the money printers fire up in earnest soon – we’re already doing $100bn per month right now. That’s going to increase by orders of magnitude. Gold at $1,915? Lol. That number will be in the rear-view mirror long before 2020 is out.

      • When they give out helicopter money I’ll pay off the debt just to annoy ScoMo and Josh..

        • The look on their respective faces will be worth it. Two children out of their respective depths. The crisis of a life-time descends and those tards are in charge – batten down the hatches, I say.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Its a better way to bail out the banks,…than just bailing them out with you still owing then.

  21. I just saw a lawyer attempt to choke out another lawyer. Going outside sometimes has its benefits.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Sorry, without a referencing link, doesn’t count.
      And please consider your shutin card surrendered for census purposes (which is still ongoing btw).

      Were either of them hot?

      • Earlier this evening we lost a hardy degenerate due to a motorcycle accident. His go-,pro was in the band practice room we were getting messed up in. It’s a wild, wild night.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Didn’t see this one until now. Sorry for your loss mate.

          I can only imagine (go pro)! Really. In fact I’m not even sure I can do that.