Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The bounce continues although its only a half inflated ball, with Japanese shares lagging and US futures slipping going into tonight’s session. This has all the hallmarks of a dead cat bounce and it must remembered that previous serious market corrections had big swings that were mistaken for recoveries. Gold is still struggling under $1600USD per ounce while the Aussie dollar moved marginally higher on the RBA’s cut this afternoon.

The Shanghai Composite is trying to get back above 3000 points, currently up nearly 1% after the lunch break to 2995 points while the Hang Seng Index is putting in a scratch session to be at 26279 points, gapping higher on the open but unable to hold on to these gains:

Japanese share markets took back all of yesterday’s bounce and then some as Yen buying dominated with the Nikkei 225 losing just over 1% to 21082 points. The USDJPY pair is the real proxy to watch as it remains unable to get back above the 108.40 level and remains stuck at the previous January lows:

The ASX200 gapped more than 1% higher on the open but slowly gave back some gains going into the afternoon, closing 0.7% higher at 6435 points. The RBA cut rates this afternnon, shooting its third to last bullet in the process, sending the depressed Australian dollar slightly higher to the mid 65 level, but not yet making a new session high. Still, this has the setup for a swing trade higher back up to the 66 handle at least:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are flatlining here going into the European session, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing an attempt to get back above ATR resistance at the 3080 point level, having breached and stayed above the previous psychologically important 3000 point level overnight – still smells dead cat to me:

The economic calendar includes the EZ wide CPI print for February plus a few US Federal Reserve member speeches, but a possible market moving event is the Super Tuesday Democratic primaries.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Yeah went to a Coles today in Brisbane…. toilet paper and tissues were down to the last few rolls/boxes.
      Canned food and instant noodles looked fine though did not notice how rice was.

      • we went last night to woolies and same thing.. everyone was buying toilet paper but not much food while we did the opposite. only explanation I have is all those mega mortgages must be making people sh1te themselves when they think the boss may say to them “4 weeks unpaid leave, we are shutting down”.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Surely it’s the gubmint sh!tting thenselves over unpaid leave. With so many poor and indebted living week to week four weeks would be economic carnage.

          Hello UBI.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        HEY everyone MIG is back, member to boot.
        Forget Corona this is more important.

        • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

          Found a few News Corpses papers lying around. That’ll be my toilet paper.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            I’d be most careful letting any Rupertarian rag near my tender sphinctre. There is no telling what you may get off it

            My cheeks deserve something cleaner than anything Innes Willox may have graced

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Probably more important to horde food, because as someone told me the other you can always wash your poo off in the shower while having pleasant thoughts as you do so thinking of MB’s depiction of happy clappy Scotty from Marketing with his poo hat on?

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Too late ….went to two big supermarkets in different centres on the north shore this avo ….stripped bare …….of toilet paper ….pasta …rice …..canned tomatoes ………and who woulda thought it ……spam …….somebody commented that the north shore folks can afford to stock up ……what about the poor people who live day to day ?
      I’d like to know what Reusa is doing in preparing for the apocalypse?

      .

      • Hastings Coles had been cleaned out of toilet paper this arvo. All the other usual stockpiling suspects quite low too so not just rich areas (Hastings has a significant low socio economic population)

      • Just a thought to folks here, might be time, if serious, to go to the larger wholesale distribution shops that sell to public.
        Yes , you might have to buy #10 size cans, and 20L cooking oil and toilet paper the size you see in public toilets, but thats where us Farm folks tend to buy…

          • Well young Popcord, my wife popped along a couple of weeks ago, and picked up 6 x #10 cans of chickpeas ( #10 can = 2.5kg )..She wasn’t sure what to do with them, but a young lass said she could put them in stews.At a sale cost of $3.95, a Farming missus couldn’t resist..Seen that you were into that type of food , so can’t hurt to do research on Big Shops as we call them

    • Nobody…and I mean nobody…likes the idea of wiping poo off their freckles with their bare fingers. Well, except for Muslims. If I’m informed correctly.

      In the greater scheme of things, anything that allows people to retain their dignity and the trappings of civilisation will have increased value in times of shortage. Toothpaste, soap, deodorant etc.

      Stock up now for future dignity. Or profit.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      When is the question going to be asked. How many fatalities does the government deem to be acceptable to keep the economy going? Somewhere between one and 500k?

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        Based on conservative figures of 25 million people in AU, 60% infection rate and 1% fatality rate you are looking at min 150,000, however fatality rates appear to be closer to 5% when health care is overwhelmed or poor so that number could jump to 550,000. It also appears to target older people more than younger people so the baby boomers could be obliterated.

        • Hang on… with the exception of a few BB shut ins who we’d rather not see keel over… why are we worried about this virus?

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            It could affect house prices!

            (and slightly delay the governments return to surplus; #unthinkableasitmaybe)

  1. What are the odds on travel to/from Italy being banned soon after the Melbourne F1 Grand Prix?

    • Agree. They are happy with some half-hearted measures to appear to be doing something but it is usually a little tweak made a little tardily. Overall the flights are still pouring in.
      Our Chief Medical Officer is doing his bit by shrugging his shoulders and mumbling things about it being uncontainable.
      Once the virus is well established there won’t be any point with all these controls so it will be back to business as normal.

    • The Windy City

      God, I’m just starting to imagine that the oldies unshakeable faith in this ship of *fabulous politicians* might just be vulnerable. To dram the impossible dream. Now if only the ALP had creativity and could capitalise on a situation. Sigh.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I was blasted by family oldies yesterday when I said they’d been lying to us about the extent of the Wuhan Flu since day one. Nope, not that nice Scott Morrison.

        The power of franking credits runs deep.

        I was trying to save their lives too. They’ve all got their health problems so I advised they may want to avoid big gatherings of people they don’t know. Ungrateful sods.

        • The Windy City

          When they’ve decided not to attend a couple of funerals, maybe, just maybe, the red rusted cogs in their brains might grind around a couple of degrees.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          People perished in Budapest when the Nazis rolled in. Adult children begged their parents to go into hiding, but many refused. They couldn’t conceive the rumors were true. Six months later the war ended.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            I know that story! I’ve been to holocaust museums in Budapest. If my memory is correct the countryside had already been dealt with but the city dwellers just would not believe it until all of a violent sudden they did.

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          ScoVID-19 will possibly see the end of those to-die-for (no pun intended) excess franking credit “refunds” to zero BB taxpayers when the banks go belly up. See how your parents feel about that.

          • That’s not emergency stockpiling. That’s just what he needs any time he goes for a run to Engadine Maccas

    • Heard a bit of Albo’s speech against the govt and the sports rorts, lying (by pm 7 times in parliament) and general corruption… etc.

      Yet all I heard on channel 9 was how our pm put Albo down and Labor inept, nothing about what he said, only the Captain’s sure response. AA is having a go, just not getting any airtime, for the masses to know. But he’s still shite, which means you’re all on your own in this crisis, like us.

      Fuck, I’ve got to get some more beer, and dog food. Lovey can have 6 double rolls, I’ll stash the two I’ll need for a month out of sight. Not sharing

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        Resident shut-in Sweeper is going to be proven 100% correct: that Australian journalism was responsible for us being stuck with Scummo from marketing.

        • Absolutely, I personally saw first hand what it was like in QLD prior to the election. Every single news channel had it in for Labor and Shorten who could do and say nothing that was reported fairly. Scottie’s problems and lies were brushed aside or ignored and he was held on a pedestal. LNP were at around 5 to 1 on some of the bookies and they surprised everyone, including themselves

  2. Getting prototypes and parts trickling in from china for work. Things are starting to move again but slowly.
    Do you think the virus can hitch a ride on air freighted parts and components?
    Should we be getting things sprayed or disinfected before shipping?

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Retail bank depositors and the RBA happy clappies now both bent over covering for government fiscal freeze?

        • Yes China, whole town port in uproar on a FB group, whole thread was made to disappear…Was quite interested to see if true, hopped in the old rover and drove a couple of hours to check…Yes, Chinese boat..

    • Yes. Coronaviruses can last up to 9 days on surfaces (depends on what they are). Watch Chris Martenson on his peak prosperity channel on youtube, today’s video covers this exact topic along with what disinfectant you need. This is at least the 2nd time he has covered this in his daily update vids. https://www.peakprosperity.com/

      Somewhere in there he will have all the info you need.

  3. Arthur Schopenhauer

    To DPM:

    Yes. Spray them when you get them. Wear gloves and a mask unpacking them (so you don’t touch your face). 70% plus alcohol.

    Apparently it sticks around on surfaces.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Better still get your neighbour to do the unwrapping while you sit it out in albuquerque

  4. Any further on the US Gov buying equities last night.
    When will they need to disclose this if it did occur?

  5. Kinda over the opinion pieces from left wing woke feminazis who are blaming china restaurant closures on racism. Seems to me there are enough ethnic china in country to keep them a going financial concern without additional patronage but they are staying away as well are they not.

      • I’m saying there are enough of them to patronise the restaurant if they wanted to to keep them in business. Obviously they are not the only ones that go to Chinese restaurants. But even they gave stayed away en mass so why is it racialist and not a calculated decision.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        I just left a chinese establishment in chatswood and yeah all chinese
        Even the plates were chinese

    • bzunicaMEMBER

      The problem is that it is a small portion of ‘the woke’ who are saying this. The people who mainly go to Chinese restaurants are, well, Chinese. Are they being racist for not going to Chinese restaurants? I think they could find a reason why they are…

    • Poor Fellow My Country

      Kinda over the opinion pieces from left wing woke feminazis who are blaming [everything and anything] on racism

    • It’s not racist if you are consistent on your approach. I’ve been avoiding Chinese restaurants since Jan. Recently added korean and Italian restaurants. Japanese operated by real Japanese (not those Korean fakes) are okay as Japanese are generally considerate of other’s well being and won’t work or would wear a mask when they are sick to prevent infecting others. Not sure if I have ever seen an Iranian restaurant, so it’s a non issue.

    • Sobering. Basically when the hospial is full of WuFlu cases dont have a heart attack or anything else.
      Have activated my Coronavirus Response Action Plan but its not much better than the acronym.

  6. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Brad Hazzard looks a little shocked at having to do his job, concentrating for extended periods of time, like + 3 minutes

  7. TailorTrashMEMBER

    I love the smell of batflue in the mornings …………smells like ………..wake up straya …..
    ( sad thing is it won’t make an iota of difference……….the last gasp of many will be ….” what is my house worth “ ……..getitintaya straya ! )

  8. Well well WELL. Just stopped by the local Woolies for a top up. Virtually no toilet paper, rice , pasta in the shop. Empty shelves.

    Word, like the virus, is spreading.

      • Coolo. This is unprecedented.

        I started stockpiling gradually 6 months ago as a resumption of prior practice that had been disrupted by divorce, house moves and life. Got a bit of an eyeroll from the woman. This evening, when I sent her pics of empty shelves she replied “Glad we got ahead of the game”. 🙂

        • Nice one. Yep. My wife was a bit impressed too.

          My food stocks are very solid, thought I had forgotten the toilet paper but turns out we have 18 rolls in the laundry, that’s just our usual stock not really an extra pile! I don’t think Australia is likely to run out of toilet paper actually, but I get that people might not want to go to the shops for it within a few weeks…

          • On the bright side, if you don’t have food, there ain’t going to be a lot of ‘refuse’ coming out the other end… 😛

    • Similar at mine, Rice plundered though Basmati still available. Pasta and UHT Milk gawn. May have to go Mad Max and retrieve aged parents – goddamn grey nomads.

  9. GENERIC

    NEW DELHI: The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has restricted export of 13 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), including paracetamol, certain vitamins and antibiotics, and formulations made from it, effective immediately, as the coronavirus outbreak in China is seen hitting supply.

    The trade watchdog’s restriction means that companies planning to export these products will have to secure a no-objection certificate from the government.

    https://www.livemint.com/news/india/dgft-restricts-export-of-13-apis-as-coronavirus-outbreak-in-china-mars-supply-11583221245855.html

    • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

      The world will be an interesting place if others start to implement similar bans on strategic products over the next 3-6 months.

      Wonder if toilet paper counts.

      • Time to step back and use the old grey cells, if you think buying flour might be a problem, buy a wheat grinder that sort of hypothesis…

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            A bidet is no good if the sewage system blocks up and the water supply gets shut off due to Sydney water workers all being in isolation.
            Best to have a few good shovels on hand.
            As for a toilet paper substitute, collect a lot of straight sticks from under the local gum trees.
            Don’t reuse these sticks, just throw them into the hole alongside your Number 2 and throw in some sawdust.
            Although said sticks could be dried in the sun and used as kindling for starting a cooking fire.

    • Thanks for posting. I thought that would happenat some stage. Glad I told the olds to stay buying all their meds a couple of weeks ago. I got my scripts yesterday and one lot filed yesterday. I might get the rest filled tomorrow

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Ah – the irrefutable benefits of globalisation on display again but on the other hand, just proving also that self-interest will always win the day.

  10. bzunicaMEMBER

    Scomo on 7:30. No questions answered. A more obtuse f…wit you won’t be able to find. I certainly trust him in these tough days

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      You have to admit that he is probably by far the best at obfuscation that Straya has ever had? And the smirk is a joy to see?

      I left the interview totally reassured that Straya is in the safest of hands and that the ABC should be shut down for impertinence.

    • He’s praying that Trump is right:

      “It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear,” Trump said

    • You know you’re in hell when you actually consider that Abbott was a good PM compared to the shītfvcker in charge now…

      • bzunicaMEMBER

        I’m almost thinking – “Malcolm all is forgiven if you remove this oxygen thief!”

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        I remember 2 years ago making comments like i’m going to have to leave the country if scummo becomes PM. There is no argument that he is a hideous man that should never have been allowed into such a position

        • To be fair the last few showing how it’s done weren’t that good a role model! Is Kevin still talking like he has marbles in his mouth shyting all over the place about Chinywa, what about Julia (actually in hindsight she might be more useful?), what about the Rabbit?, & of course Turnbubbles the MB hero! He worked out well didn’t he? ScoVid has a bit of way to go. But he seems to have put his skates on. Down hill from here. So we know ScomVid is a dead skiier so who is going to replace him? Albo…? Please help me. Who else? OZ is bereft of talent.

  11. CORONAVIRUS … AS THE SPREAD ACCELERATES …

    Up to 1 million people could be tested for coronavirus in the US by the end of the week, health officials say … CNN

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-updates-tuesday/index.html

    (CNN)Up to a million people could be tested for coronavirus by the end of week, the FDA said Monday, as cases across the US rose to more than 100 and health officials warned that the number will keep climbing.

    Cases of the virus have now been reported in 12 states — the majority of them in California and Washington state, where six people have died.
    About a quarter of the current cases were likely transmitted through US communities, officials have said, meaning they were not travel-related. … VIEW & EREAD MORE via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    WHO chief warns ‘we are in uncharted territory’ as number of coronavirus cases worldwide passes 90,000 … CNN

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/asia/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-intl-hnk/index.html

  12. How much longer will borders remain open ? …

    Coronavirus: (New Zealand) PM did not rule out trans-Tasman travel restrictions as first person-to-person transmission in Australia … Colette Devlin … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/119967958/coronavirus-pm-did-not-rule-out-transtasman-travel-restrictions-as-first-persontoperson-transmission-in-australia
    .
    .
    What happened today … David Chaston … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/news/103886/review-things-you-need-know-you-go-home-tuesday-kāinga-ora-changes-rates-car-sales-uplog

    … extract …

    … CORONAVIRUS IMPACTS NO LONGER AN INSURABLE TRAVEL EVENT

    Insurance agents are reporting that insurance companies now deem coronavirus to be a ‘known event’ globally. Travel insurance purchased after 2 March no longer covers losses or additional costs associated with Covid-19; for example, Medical costs, Cancellation/Delay, Loss of deposits etc. anywhere in the world. Travel insurance still offers cover for other unforeseen events as outlined in individual policies – such as a broken leg, lost baggage or the impacts of a significant weather event.

  13. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Sometime in the early 60’s I remember reading
    On the Beach by Nevil Shute

    Today as I look at empty supermarket shelves
    there is an eerie feeling that I’m living in his great novel….
    ….in it everyone died …..in this only some of us will die …for those who do …might as well be everyone ..,,..

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      and that church – it was St Mary’s in Geetroit

      If they try and collect people from the beach at Barwon Heads there’d be a few babyboomer property developers getting saved

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Gotta love it dontcha ……..the innocent straya
        of Shute …. to the greedy self absorbed place it veered off into ……sad it happened in one lifetime

  14. Canberra shutins …

    The Committee Meeting is at 7.30pm tomorrow at The Meating Room pub in Weston ACT.

    Be there or be a regular dodecahedron.

    • Maybe it’s the beer talking, but shouldn’t other shut-ins do the same in other places!? TTW??

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You’d only be disappointed but if you can get skippy to come I’ll turn up and lurk at a bar-counter somewhere. Unless the conversation about

        Honey, you know all those loons you complain constantly about me commenting with? One of them wants to meet up for beer…

        Which one? Please tell me it’s not nnn!

        doesn’t go well. 😨

  15. Looking forward to when a major city (or even a small town) tries to enact quarantine procedures and ScoMo sends in the virus army to kick some heads and keep the roads open.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      I’m getting an inkling of a mutual obligation work for the dole scheme here…..

    • Know IdeaMEMBER

      As far as I can tell, one only becomes and remains a billionaire in China if the party allows you to be. And what the party giveth with the right hand it can also take away with the left.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I wonder if our two superpowers will farm out the manufacturer, deployment and control of their nuclear armed ICBMs to these private companies?

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        true …..fish n chips is my go to there

        ….but those sweet and sour places will be fine as they are well integrated as part of the landscape …..it’s the new boom places in Chatswood ,Eastwood and Epping that are in trouble ……..such a shame if it were racism to blame for their demise …..

    • “She said one woman who panic-bought two shopping trolleys worth of toilet paper later died of hunger. “She forgot to buy food unfortunately. But at least in her final moments she was able to wipe herself with 700 linear metres of quality 3 ply”.” – LOL