Lord Jabba seeks secession from SloMo’s southern plague

The virus loves SloMo. Via News:

National cabinet meets again this morning to discuss further lockdown measures to fight the spread of coronavirus, with New South Wales prepared to bring in tougher rules as early as this weekend.

NSW’s Chief Medical Officer says it will take at least a week for experts to gauge the success of the current widespread shutdowns, but Premier Gladys Berejiklian says she’s ready to move ahead of the Commonwealth if required.

It comes after the number of NSW coronavirus cases jumped on Thursday to 1219, a rise of 190 on the previous day, while the national death toll rose by four in one day after three deaths in Victoria and one in Western Australia.

It’s required, also at News:

Australia could run out of ICU beds to treat coronavirus patients within 10 days, a new study has predicted.

The study published in the Medical Journal of Australia says our nation’s mortality rate from COVID-19 could reach that of Italy’s unless we take urgent measures to slow the rate of infection.

Anaesthetist Hamish Meares and Macquarie University biostatistician Michael Jones calculated that based on Australia’s ICU bed capacity of about 2200, hospitals would be overwhelmed once the number of infections hit 22,000.

22k is indeed 10 days away:

Jennifer Hewitt continues to make more sense than most:

The hope is that with travel drastically curbed, isolation restrictions in place and contact tracking increased, the rapidly escalating rate of the virus will soon slow down.

The alternative medical advice is that a much tougher lockdown is now required to have any hope of “flattening of the curve” despite the shocking economic impact. This is due in part to the initial failure of authorities to properly track and isolate tourists or returning travellers as potential carriers, including those with no symptoms. This would have required far more aggressive preparation and widespread testing from the beginning, even of asymptomatic people

Given such targeting and enforced quarantining did not happen and even modest improvements like routine temperature checking still don’t occur, Australia’s approach becomes a gamble that its medical advice will prove more right than wrong. Australians must hope there are not many more people undiagnosed and unknowingly spreading a virus already beyond the reach of “proportional” measures.

If the curve is flattened briefly by SloMo’s half-arsed measures it will be seasonally dependent. As we loosen the chokehold, the virus will erupt into Winter and the lockdown will come anyway. So, we will have only engineered the worst of both worlds with higher deaths and the most economic harm.

If the SloMo strategy of placating both the virus and economic interests fails, and the curve keeps steepening, then lockdown is upon us after the virus has taken hold and the shutdown will need to be longer and more severe into the colder months, only ensuring greater economic damage and number of deaths.

Conversely, if we lock down now and stamp it out (and to be honest it’s already too late) then test, test, test through the reopening in six weeks then both deaths and economic damage are minimised.

It’s basic logic, conspicuously missing.

To wit, Jabba Christensen has had enough of his thick-as-a-brick leader and wants to secede:

Who could blame him?

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. Breaking news: SloMo is backing a ‘science-based’ global response to the virus — so says SBS. Blow me down.

    Perhaps they misheard when he said: faith-based.

  2. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    Disintegration of the EZFKA into its constituent parts, or parts of parts, is inevitable if not today then tomorrow…. all it took was the Bat sniffles for our stronger and united states to close the borders on each other for the first time in history.

    Diversity does not lead to strength, it leads to dysfunction.

  3. Display NameMEMBER

    The number hospitalized almost doesnt matter as what ever the percentage is, it will swamp ICU capacity in Australia (or the UK) even if we do flatten the curve. Only if we do what Korea or Singapore has done will we get a controllable outcome. Unfortunately I dont think we have that option any more as we were far too slow to move in the first place. That is not so say we should not use more robust detection and isolation mechanisms because they will reduce the amount of triage required.

    • I’m sure we’ll adopt all the sensible policy positions… once we see them very clearly in our rear view mirror and have a good level of confidence that adopting them will look like “doing the right thing” but won’t alter our course.

      It is always thus. What’s that thing that Smart that guy says. The answers lie back in time, hey?

      • What is this back in time thing – was it flawse? Endless, at the end of posts. That’s not pejorative, by the way.

        “How can the Melbourne Football Club win the flag in 2021”
        “The answers lie back in time”
        “WTF? We need to get Norm Smith back? Or something else”
        “The answers like back in time”

        I’m dense, help me.

  4. Who is going to prosecute the case for an RC, after all this.

    End 2020. In the washout

    Hanson: “Royal Commission!”
    (Albodross won’t do it)
    Scrotumo: “Now is not the time to talk about a Royal Commission that would hold my government accountable for all the deaths”

    • I wouldn’t hold your breath on an expensive RC — taxpayer resources will be so depleted it would be nigh impossible.

      I propose a ‘budget’ RC — one that I’ll conduct free of charge. In fact, I already have the conclusion:

      The Gubmint fcked up — big time.

      Satisfied?

      • I don’t know. Might open some uncomfy commentary about NSW and the cruise ship imbroglio.

        Maybe Labor, when** they win the next election. Of course they should limit the terms to ensure it’s impossible for the RC to find anything other than Myopic Morrison was to blame.

        ** Not a foregone conclusion based on Albodross’s performance thus far

  5. The experts are all over the place, and the “won’t work in Australia” cries are out. Once again, we must be different.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-options-to-end-lockdown-explained/12090270

    I have serious ethical concerns about the least-flat-curve approach that this article seems to be implying the Aussie government is going for.

    Firstly, to follow this route and assume it’s going to remain under control is extremely risky. If we fail, the result will be much worse, more people will die, and the effects felt longer than a full lockdown. Secondly, this approach relies on herd immunity to be successful in the long-term. Do we know that will work? I can find no firm evidence that this is the case. Thirdly, how do we know what the long last effects are of this virus? If the case is serious enough, the lungs are left permanently scarred which is a long term impairment. Does our government think that’s a good idea to try?

    If we attempt a full lockdown and it isn’t as successful as we hope (probably the case as the trogs moved way too slow) then the outcome will still be short and more ethical and than the current approach, particularly if it runs out of control.

    Are there any other countries that have taken on this callous and damaging strategy? As far as I know it’s been considered elsewhere and then scrapped as a bad idea.

  6. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Our rate of increase has slowed in the past few days. So instead of doublings every 3 days, we are now doubling every 5 days. So 20k is now 15 days away instead of 10. 5 days may not sound like a lot, but people do recover in ICU, so the extra days will make a difference.

    If NSW pull the trigger and go ‘full Wuhan’ this weekend, we will avoid catastrophe. If we wait another week, it’ll be too late.

  7. Even if bat sniffles does not follow seasonal infection trends, normal flu season is going to see a panicked public flood the healthcare system and leave us vulnerable. Without fast accurate testing it will be carnage.

  8. happy valleyMEMBER

    Gladys is probably trying to limit the number of infections/deaths on her watch, whereas that’s not an issue for Scotty from Marketing as everything is the states’/territories’ responsibility and if they screw up, it’s all Labor’s fault anyway if they’re not already Labor governments?

    • Can’t remember the last time something was unconstitutional. It seems like everything a goer these days. I remember when you needed to be an sole Australian citizen and not under foreign influence to hold office. Jeez those were the days.

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