Goldman: Australian economy to shrink 6% on Wuhan flu

Fresh from Goldman Sachs, The Australian economy is forecast to shrink 6% in 2020 and unemployment spike to 8.5% with a lot more underemployed:

“As more people work from home, higher spending on food and utilities will provide a modest offset, but investment activity and exports are also likely to contract.”

“There has been a severe deterioration in the outlook for the Australian economy over the past week as the COVID-19 outbreak has intensiﬁed. Looking ahead, the global experience suggests social-distancing and broader containment measures will intensify further over the coming weeks.”

If we shrink 6% then the only way unemployment will not be 15% is that it is hidden in 25% underemployment.

Going to an auction this weekend?

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.