• Investor sentiment has collapsed on the back of the coronavirus, oil shock, recession, and surging debt default risk.
• March FMS sends BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (flagship sentiment index) from 2.5 to 1.7, triggering first contrarian “buy signal” for risk assets since Aug’19 (link).
• FMS sentiment close to 2008/9 GFC bear extremes in terms of cash & corporate leverage, but GFC saw deeper despair on global growth & equity allocations.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
