CS: Australian GDP to be weak

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse:

We now have all the partial indicators we can get our hands on to now-cast 4Q real GDP, covering between 52-90% of GDP. The most recent data points included:

Net exports: the contribution to growth was weaker-than-expected, at only 0.1% compared with the Consensus forecast of 0.2% based on monthly partials.

Government spending: the contribution to growth was rather soft, with consumption only rising by 0.7% over the quarter, and investment falling by 0.4%.

Our running tally for quarterly growth, sits between 0.2-0.3%%, depending on how far one wishes to extrapolate retail sales trends to the entire consumption basket. This sits below the Consensus forecast of 0.4% quarterly growth.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.