Coronavirus: It is time to look at the data differently

About a month ago, I posted here about how to look at coronavirus statistics. At the time, it was all about early warning signs, ignoring China data and focussing on the rest of the world. That analysis worked well for highlighting the problem early and changing investment strategy in front of the herd. 

But that analysis is no longer relevant. It is time to work out what the next phase will be.

The disease is loose globally; there is very little chance of stopping it now. Iran and Italy are “exporting” cases at an exponential rate – far worse than China at a similar stage:

  Source of new Covid-19 cases

A quick data note. Almost all coronavirus statistics show where the disease is diagnosed. I focus on where it is caught.  

Key COVID-19 Questions

  1. Which data can be trusted? We are looking at South Korea, the Diamond Princess and Singapore as being the best indicators as they are the largest affected countries that have shown to be the most transparent. China, Iran and Italy all have significant question marks over data.
  2. Is winter an issue? The longer it goes without a meaningful coronavirus outbreak in a tropical country, the more we need to suspect a heat/light/humidity factor. This will have a substantial effect on how adverse the economic impact is.
  3. How fast is it spreading? The case numbers are still catching up from earlier undiagnosed cases which might make the spread seem faster than it really is. Clearly, there are outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran. Japan is questionable. Outbreaks appear likely in the US, Germany, France and Spain.  
  4. How deadly is it? If contained, our best estimate is in the 0.4% to 1.0% range if the outbreak. It is probably closer to 5% if not contained as in Wuhan and (likely) Iran. It is significantly more deadly for older people. 
  5. How long will it last? At a local level, prior epidemics suggest six weeks in an unconstrained environment (Iran?). In areas with quarantines and shutdowns much longer. At least 3-4 months, more likely double or triple that. 

Question 1: Can you trust the COVID-19 data?

Not from all countries.

The chart below illustrates just one of the many reasons why we are sceptical of Chinese data. South Korea now has more than 4x the cases per person than any province in China outside of Hubei:

Covid-19 cases per million

A month ago, we focussed on the difference between data from Hubei, the rest of China and the rest of the world. Our thesis was the Chinese data appeared to be manipulated, and so we would get much better information from the rest of the world. As more countries report data, the rest of world data is now also showing data quality issues. Iran, Italy and China have data issues.

 John Hopkins has a score for each country’s ability to deal with a virus outbreak. The chart below maps the part of the score that deals with a country’s ability to identify and report on diseases vs the number of cases. It should provide a rough guide as to how much trust to put in data from individual countries. Our experience has been that Singapore should be rated higher and Italy and the US lower: 

John Hopkins Virus Early Detection Reporting Score vs. Cases

To date, we have found the South Korea data to be of high quality and very transparent. Given the high case count plus the vast number of tests performed, South Korea is the best source of data we have to answer questions.

The Diamond Princess is another good source given we have a constrained sample size and patients in multiple countries. The main issue is the people are generally older and so are probably not representative of the broader society.

Singapore data and quality has also been excellent. Singapore is also testing heavily and is a major transport hub. We are using Singapore and Thailand as our reference data source for tropical countries.  

Question 2: Is winter an issue?

If Coronavirus rips through two-thirds of the world population (as reputable coronavirus experts have suggested is possible), then there will be a significant economic effect. If it is limited to countries in winter, then the outcome will be substantially less. We are yet to see a sustained outbreak in a tropical country.

At the moment our base case is coronavirus outbreaks will be mainly in colder countries. We don’t have a lot of conviction in this view as there may be cases that are not yet reported in a range of tropical countries. But the longer it goes without domestic outbreaks in tropical countries, the more our conviction will grow. 

We split cases into: 

  • Winter countries: Northern Hemisphere Countries currently in winter (including Vietnam as the domestic transmission cases are in the north)
  • Summer/Equatorial countries: Southern Hemisphere countries now in summer or Countries near the equator where temperatures are relatively high all year

You can see a stark difference between the cases:

Coronavirus cases by season

There are suggestions that UV-B radiation and vitamin D played a role in reducing deaths in the Spanish Flu pandemic. Other studies suggest humidity greatly reduces the aerosol transmission of viruses, but some suggest humidity increases the surface transmission. It is unknown how these affect COVID-19 – many experts warn against being too optimistic.

 

Question 3: How fast is COVID-19 spreading?

The best indicator for this is the number of days that it takes for COVID-19 cases or deaths to double. The virus looks out of control in South Korea, Italy and Iran. Japan could go either way. 

 Days taken for Coronavirus cases outside China to double to double

France, Germany, Spain and the US all look like the countries to watch:

Number of days for Covid-19 cases and deaths in China to double

The other significant factor spreading COVID-19 is cases “exported” by Italy and Iran (chart at the top of this post). Both countries are throwing off a huge number of cases which are being diagnosed in other countries. This is highly suggestive of much larger infections in both countries. It also increases the risk that other countries will see outbreaks. 

The statistics coming out of South Korea (which is doing the most testing) are suggesting it is significantly more infectious than the World Health Organisation initially thought. The key is stopping the spread in the early stages – which most countries have not done.

Total Covid-19 cases caught outside of China

The average incubation period of COVID-19 probably less than a week (but could be as much as 24 days). Add 3-4 days before diagnosis. So, you would expect measures like quarantines and travel restrictions to take around ten days before showing up in statistics. 

It is important to note that exponential growth means that by the time measures take place, the cases will have doubled twice. Which means if you wait too long, there may be nothing you can do.  

Question 4: How deadly is COVID-19?

There are a lot of different takes on the Coronavirus mortality rate. Our best estimate is that it is in the 0.4% to 1.0% range if the outbreak is contained and hospitals are not over-run. It is probably closer to 5% if not contained. It is significantly more deadly for older people.

So, the key to controlling the disease is to ensure that hospitals are not over-run. China was very aggressive in pursuing this. Europe and the US appear not to be.

Next, dividing the number of deaths by the number of cases during the early stages of an outbreak is very misleading. People who were diagnosed today with the disease are still alive, but they still might die from the virus in the coming days.

A better way is to compare the current deaths to the number of cases from “x” days ago. We still don’t know how many days we should be looking back. The stats so far suggest that the median days from the first symptom to death is 14. But with a broad range from 6 to 41. And, we don’t know how long on average after the first symptom a person would take to become a case.

The below charts show the death rate if the right period to look back is 4, 8 or 12 days. 

I am most focussed on South Korea and the cruise ship. South Korea is finding more cases because they are looking harder than anyone else and so have a more complete data set.
The cruise ship is interesting as it has a fixed population. But people on the ship were generally older, and older people are more likely to die, I believe the death rates will be over-stated.

Worldwide Covid-19 mortality rate

I am no longer convinced the China data means much. However, it is possible that whatever “adjustments” are being made to case numbers are also being made to deaths which might mean the mortality rates for China are OK.

  China Covid-19 mortality rate using different lag periods

Hubei province Coronavirus mortality rate using different lag periods

Question 5: How long will it last?

This is educated guesswork. The key factor is if epidemics get out of control, then they can be over relatively quickly in a single location: six weeks to two months (with a lot of deaths). However, if quarantines and shutdowns manage to slow the disease, the epidemic can last for considerably longer. Three months would probably be the best that could be expected. More likely to be multiples of that.

Because there are multiple locations across multiple countries, it is likely to last considerably longer, and there may be multiple waves. 

We note the economic trade-off:

  1. Humanitarian. The bigger the shutdowns, the greater the preventative measures, the fewer people will die.
  2. Economic. The bigger the shutdowns, the greater the preventative measures, the more significant the economic impact will be.

We would expect markets to start pricing in recovery when developed market cases peak, but note that the economic effects will last longer. 

Here are some sample epidemics showing the effect at a city, country and global level:  

1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic: Comparing death rates in individual cities

1918 Spanish Flu epidemic death rates per city

2014 West Africa Ebola cases

Source: Wikipedia

Probable SARS cases from 2002-2003

Source: WHO

 Other Coronavirus posts:

Data sources

This is a list of some of the main data sources we use:

https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/updated-coronavirus-statistics-cases-deaths-mortality-rate/  This has daily updates to the above charts. The charts here are more analytical

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Probably the best source of the latest COVID-19 statistics

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-effects-of-the-coronavirus/ Good source of fast-moving China economic stats.

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ If you want to be bombarded with every breaking news story, this is the place

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia  Faster than worldometers for Chinese data, but slower on rest of the world data. I don’t think China cases matter anymore.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports I’m less enamoured of the WHO data now than I was at the start of the crisis. They are providing less information now than they were two weeks ago, and it sometimes contradicts country-level data.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 The prettiest pictures, but one of the slower sites to update. I don’t find the charts that useful.

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Damien Klassen is Head of Investments at the Macrobusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.

The information on this blog contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd – AFSL 515796.

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Comments

  1. I can tell you that health is expecting significantly increased critical care demand (i.e. perhaps 200% of normal & with the possibility that some care will need to be rationed) for a period of 10-12 weeks. May be longer than that of course (even China has not yet had 12 weeks experience), but that is the thinking at present.

    Note that this period then runs into the start of winter which is usually the peak demand.

    There appears to be no plan for the following factors likely to affect availability of health services
    Staff getting sick themselves – a major risk (we already have some staff who are either sick, or in quarantine because they worked with someone who was sick, so this does not bode well at this very early stage)
    Casually employed staff who decide not to work
    Schools closing and staff having to take time off work to look after their own families

      • Can convert halls, sports stadiums etc into low level care facilities. We saw that at Wuhan.

        But not high level care centres. You need too much equipment and.Infrastructure, and you can’t suddenly get enough ventilators and monitors. All made overseas and every country will be trying to buy.
        Can use ventilators in some operating theatres as surgery likely to be curtailed.
        Suppliers will have limited stock in country and this can be purchased.
        There is some stuff stored away for such an eventuality, but only so much. It is extremely expensive and you can’t have an unlimited stockpile.
        There is some capacity in private hospitals. Government can access this.
        Military and AUSMAT (disaster teams) have a limited amount which can be utilised.

        So lots of places where you can drag a bit of stuff from. But would still expect shortfalls.

        • macrofishMEMBER

          Park HMAS Canberra in Sydney Harbour, HMAS in port phillip bay. Two floating hospitals

        • We’ve got 5,000 person workers camp and an unused detention centre if needed.

          Here in the NT, one of the biggest concerns is it getting out into the indigenous communities.

      • Really hard to know. Like trying to pick the outcome of a football game in the first 30 seconds.

        The only country that really knows how this works is China. There is more than enough reason not to trust China’s data. Everyone talks about how Wuhan’s health system got overwhelmed and that is why the mortality was so high. BUT, the Wuhan mortality was incredibly high from the outset
        https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200122-sitrep-2-2019-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=4d5bcbca_2
        21 January 270 cases in Wuhan. 6 dead. 12 critical.
        270 total cases did not overwhelm a city of 11 million. So the mortality in Wuhan was always high compared to the reported mortality outside Hubei province.
        Iran – who knows
        Korea looks more optimistic with 0.6% fatality rate. But a lot of their cases came from that sect, and so probably young – middle aged adults rather than a representative cross section of society.

        We are seeing rapid exponential growth pretty much everywhere. Transmission is likely to only burn out when about 50-60% population have been infected and immune. Perhaps 2-3% fatality rate. So maybe 1.5 – 2% total population – mostly older than 60.

        That is pretty close to worst case – which is certainly possible but not definite.

        However note that even the stuff the government is releasing to the media is taking about increasing capacity at mortuaries and alternative arrangements if mortuaries overwhelmed. After cases exploded in Italy, there was a deliberate decision to forewarn people what this could look like.
        https://www.smh.com.au/national/states-pandemic-playbooks-reveal-plan-to-combat-covid-19-20200226-p544nv.html
        “Police would run security for the state’s medical stockpile and manage “mass fatalities” if mortuaries exceed their capacity, the NSW pandemic report states.”

        We will do better if we can slow down spread and stop hospitals being completely overwhelmed (as certainly did later on in Wuhan). 50mm of rain in a week is a wet week. 50mm rain in an afternoon causes flash flooding and damage.

        How well can we lock down our cities compared to China? Do you think an infected Iranian could walk into a supermarket in China?

  2. Same question I asked yesterday. What are the chances of Australia banning travelers from Italy soon after the Melbourne F1 Grand Prix?

    I note that Vietnam insisting on a 14 day quarantine for travelers from Italy, effectively cancelling the Vietnamese F1 Grand Prix on April 5. Meanwhile in Australia….$$$

    • BrentonMEMBER

      This thing is in like 60 countries now. We’d have to shut down all international travel at this point.

      • Look at the first chart. Right now the highest risks are from Iran and Italy. Iran banned. Italy yet to be banned.

        Ferrari stated if some of their team cannot attend Australia they would be forced to withdraw from the GP. FIA stated they would probably have to cancel the Grand Prix.

        • BrentonMEMBER

          It is rife in France, Germany and Spain too (they’ve gone exponential the last couple of days).

          Never mind the US. They have been doing the whole don’t test, don’t know thing. But deaths are rising at an alarming rate, which means the headline figures are… unlikely.

          • The don’t test don’t know thing in the US is over as the corruption at the CDC has been exposed. Reported cases there will explode over coming weeks. The psychology of this will be bad.

        • DominicMEMBER

          Freddy, this ‘thing’ is rife in Ferrari country – I can’t believe they haven’t called it. Ferrari’s base is not far from … Milan. Where the main outbreak is centred. WTF! Money talks, b#llsh#t walks. They’ll cancel – just a matter of time.

  3. BrentonMEMBER

    So weather will cut short the Northern Hemisphere pandemic, but ensure another (larger?) wave come September/October; current level of spread unlikely to confer herd immunity.

    Australia:
    Sean Bean Winter Is Coming.gif

  4. Great article DK, thanks.

    Very good point about Korea looking harder than anyone else. Contrast with Australia: we have the case of the guy who went to the supermarket before starting his “self quarantine”. Our useless authorities told anyone who was at the supermarket to report in “if they feel unwell”. Morons. That could take 7-14 days, during which they could infect a lot of people.

    Korea would have tracked them down, and you know, TESTED THEM.

    • BrentonMEMBER

      Haha, yeah it’s an absolute clusterfark.

      And how about that Chinese data.
      SK reporting 100 per 1,000,000. Even the famously transparent ayatollah’s are reporting 30 per 1,000,000. But heroic China can only summon a paltry 10 per 1,000,000. Are we supposed to believe it is 10x more contagious in SK? Is it the fine tasting BBQ beef causing all their problems? Or has K-Pop struck again?

    • I’ll bet two bob that letting it run free is exactly what the cvnt Scummo is planning on. No point having closed borders if it’s already loose in the community. Gotta keep those Uni’s open.

      I can’t wait for them to be the ground zero and having to close anyway inflicting WAY more damage on them than if they acted like responsible organisations. But no, we are so far down the neolib rabbit hole these absolute scum sucking fvcking greedy cvnts don’t look any further than thier next bonus period. I truly hope someone manages to get up a class action against all the Uni’s that blatently skirted the border ban by giving virus carriers money to party in third countries so they could come here and infect peoples gramma’s.

    • DominicMEMBER

      I feel unwell but I can’t, for the life of me, tell whether it’s because I’m hungover or genuinely … er … unwell. Better call work and book 14 days off. ;). Goodonya coronavirus!

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Thanks for putting this together DK.

    Australia belongs in this line:
    “Outbreaks appear likely in the US, Germany, France and Spain.”

  6. EconomistMEMBER

    Keep in mind that the majority of cases outside China/Korea/Iran/Italy involve travelers. Travelers are younger than average. That could skew the death rate lower outside China, until the virus has a chance to establish itself in the local population.

    • Damien KlassenMEMBER

      My first thought was that you are right… my second was that you are wrong. My gut says its probably birfurcated but I don’t know. i.e. lots of young and lots of old, not much in between. Maybe someone has access to stats to show otherwise?

      • DominicMEMBER

        There was that young doctor in Wuhan (in his ’30s I think) who broke ranks to announce the problem to the world and then was reprimanded by the State, who eventually succumbed to the virus. Was it the sheer exposure to the virus that did for him or was he vulnerable from a health perspective? His case chills me to the bone.

        https://www.epsilontheory.com/dont-test-dont-tell/

        • He had insufficient protective clothing and would have been exposed to a massive viral load while being grossly overworked and fatigued. He also may well have been a smoker. Most other 31 year olds will be more fortunate.

  7. Cycling spring classics season about to begin followed by Grand Tours

    Lot of interaction on buses (teams) and crowds. Starting Milan San Remo, France, Belgium, Netherlands for the big dogs.

    Then you’ve got Tour de Suisse, Dauphine, TDF, Giro, the sportifs – Maratona, Marmotte, L’Etape, Haute Routes, sportifs of the Ronde/Flanders and Roubaix.

    Lot of Italians/French etc heading to north of France/Belgium and everyone to the Giro. Haven’t checked Giro route to see if in the north much. One mitigating factor for the Giro in the north may be cold/snow. Same deal if we see snow/rain at the classics. May keep some people away.

    TDF big stages with big crowds on the hills:
    Pau stage: Peyresourde, Bales
    Alpes – Grand Colombier
    Madeleine
    Roselend, Flumet
    Marie Blanque

    Then you’ve got starts and finishes and sprint stages

    I’d be super nervous about hilly stages.

    Also the sportifs, lot of people coughing, spluttering on the climbs.

    The Flanders/Roubaix (and similar) sportifs see people jam packed especially on the bergs where it’s wall to wall with the back markers walking….lot of people in close proximity, heavy breathing

    Lots and lots of people moving around and interacting

    Of course, nice and hot and sunny so vitamin D levels increased (if that’s a mitigating factor).

    • For perspective TDF normally gets several
      Million roadside spectators

      If we were on the alpe dhuez we’re talking several
      Hundred thousand people in one place same day

    • BubbleyMEMBER

      I’d be more concerned with all the people crammed into the Louvre in Paris or the Cistern chapel in Rome.
      A bus tour or Captains Cruise though Europe will spread it before the cycling comps start.

      And on a side note, an older friend of mine just declined a free trip to PNG because he
      A. Couldn’t get insurance
      B. Is in a high risk group (old)
      C. Says that most of the store owners are Chinese who do a lot of fly in, fly out.
      D. PNG has a very poor health system and is unlikely to do even the most basic airport screening
      He’s worked and lived in Papua off and on for decades and has lived the sort of life people write books about. If he’s not going, the risk is real.

      • We can all agree to be concerned with all teh events

        Cancel the TDF?! Sacre Bleu !

      • DominicMEMBER

        Sensible guy. Mind you, even in good times there are plenty of reasons not to go to PNG. A mate of mine, who was over there for a golf pro-am had to take cover on the 9th tee as a bank robbery played out just across the road. The goodies and the baddies were pretty liberal with the discharging of firearms and bullets whizzed about their head as they took cover – in bunkers etc, frankly wherever. He swore it was his last pro-am over there.

  8. Poor Fellow My Country

    Quality of data is paramount. There are many more cases than being published.

    India just fessed up to 15 new cases in the last 8 hours. I bet that’s only some of it.

    • From a friend in Germany…”My friend has flu symptoms since over 7 days and feels really bad but the doc won’t test for coronavirus because if it is positive he will have to close down”.
      I’ve heard the same thing for Japan.

      • Interesting. And then we have the “don’t test, don’t report” stance of the US under Dumpty’s instructions and the Chinese outright lying and it’s the recipe for a panic. Which is what’s happening…

      • DominicMEMBER

        This ‘policy’ is going on everywhere, let’s face it.

        The numbers are about to esplode!

  9. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    I wonder if ventilators will be allocated to Australian citizens ahead of 80 year old vibrants awaiting residency with full access to Medicare?

    “Full access” answered my own question I guess.

    Straya about to learn what LNP and Labor have done to us.

    • unless i missed something the LNP uber managers have been running the show for the past 7 plus years loading up Australia with another 1,000,000 every 30 months

  10. A factor to consider regarding Korea is that many cases are linked to that cult. These cults are often made up of young and middle aged adults with fewer elderly, and this may be one reason why the Korean fatality rate and number of serious cases are both very low (approx 0.6%).

    This is the opposite problem of the cruise ship data.

  11. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Imagine if Labor won the election?

    We could potentially have another million migrant elderly parents by now.

      • BubbleyMEMBER

        Useless trivia – during the Spanish flu of 1918, there was a shortage of coffins.

        Hmmm maybe not so useless info… could be an Investment opportunity, coffins White Lady etc?

  12. Question 5: How long will it last? : so if ramp up in USA starts now and China settling, with winter onset, when is it time for the mb fund to start rebalancing and thinning out Aussie Bonds when? Peak (global) covid in June 2020 (with lagging economic impacts) but then arguably Aussie’s coping a full load at this time based on your analysis?

    • BubbleyMEMBER

      It’s coming toward the end of the northern winter. April is spring.

      I’d be more worried about Australia in June.

      SPANISH flu ran for 2 years, so it’s likely to come in waves.

      • Yes, sorry that wasn’t very clear. Thanks for the reply. I guess there is kind of a natural ramp in terms of infection spread to new populations and a ‘brake while still accelerating’ which is the winter. I cannot see it stopping it outright even in the north and some will pass on into northern spring and keep going.

        Then the Southern Hemisphere is cooling simultaneously contributing to numbers including Aus.

        And then add the lag times for first order economic impacts – multipliers after first pressures like ICU beds going short, health workers sick and general realisation of break down of just in time supply chains (little redundancy) – it is all too much I guess.

        I’m going to check websites of a few of the names here: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-virus-peak-analysis-idUSKBN2002NA

        I guess in summary our winter peak with first order impacts might match the zenith lagging economic impacts globally (ex-Aust). Like the patient getting sick first gets the best outcome as the system isn’t busted yet, coming later you get sick and a bunch of second order impacts on top of just the virus – bad news.

        • Your last paragraph could work both ways. If you get sick early, you get that best health care vs get sick latter and get treated by an overloaded potentially broken system.
          Or …glass half full version
          Get sick later and get treated by system that is very efficient and experienced at dealing with covid19 due to its “in the trenches training”

          I maybe hopelessly optimistic with the second one.

  13. I have recently been traveling in both China and Europe. In China, buying an inter-city train ticket is dependent on the social credit system, so it is easy for the authorities to restrict travel from one province to another, even based on your place of residence, where you have recently traveled, or other factors. In Europe, authorities can warn people not to travel, but there are no mechanisms in place for them to really stop it.

      • Meh, the Covid cat is well and truly out of the bag and running free. In my opinion (and I’m not a medical professional) it seems pointless to shut the airports etc when this highly transmissible strain of the flu is already in every European country and America’s president has declared it a hoax (what a moron) The CDC in the US has been neutered and not doing the one job it was created for.

        It’s not if, but when we all get it. Best thing to do now is stay healthy, work on keeping your body fit so your immune system can fight it off, because there is a very high chance you will get it.

        The only thing that scares me about COVID19 is if transmutes or morphs into something worse. Then we’ve got a real problem.

  14. Given the data showing higher risk for the elderly, possible that the outcome for each country will vary depending on how they take care of their old people. In Australia and the US at least it seems the old people tend to end up in nursing homes and retirement villages where they are all grouped together and cared for by paid workers who care for many multiples of patients each day. They can’t not continue this shared caring work because if they don’t show up for work, those elderly people don’t get food, don’t get showers, some don’t get out of bed. So quarantine in these places seems all but impossible on a large scale. Compare this to other countries, I don’t know about China (maybe someone has info on this?) but would assume that their elderly tend to remain in the own homes, be taken care of by their own family. In which case, effective isolation of the elderly would still be possible.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Good point and good timing. Because:
      An age care worker in Sydney has been tested positive for the virus. Whatasurprise!

  15. They quickly worked out that you could get a much lower death rate by taking the undiagnosed corpses straight from the hospital to the blast furnace without recording anything.

    • They don’t even get to the hospital. They are confined to their homes die there and are never fiagnosed or recorded as a case or a death.

  16. The China Virus (Ximatosis) 🇨🇳🦠

    🔻Up to 1.6 million now infected in China.
    Over 50,000 (40,000 or more being Chinese) are infected outside of China, 6 million fled Wuhan, then incredibly over 8 million then fled China.

    Morrison/ Dutton helped over 170,000 get in to infect Australia and our corrupted education industry helped another 35,000 infect other countries in 2 week stopovers to then sneak into Australia.

    🔻But the Infected are contagious for up to 24 days. (study by Zhong Nan-Shan published on February 9) now thought to be up to 29 days.
    👉🏾 A 5 week, not a 2 week quarantine period was needed. Morrison/Dutton and the idiot health officer knew that nearly a month ago but lied & did nothing..

    🔻The China Virus is persistent & infectious on many object surfaces for up to 9 days.
    👉🏾That’s the end of airfreight – all shipping goods inside and packaging will need full decontamination & the air carrier or ships disinfecting. Again nothing done.

    🔻The China Virus is spread and can infect via ingestion (food, water), formite (infected surfaces), via the eyes, mouth & nose into the lungs (airborne microbes) or via blood, sweat, human excretions & sexual transmission.

    👉🏾All the human emissions or bodily contact points. Billions of microscopic virus particles that are highly persistent coming off the infected, on any object or surface & the very air itself a contagion vector.

    Again no public education. Just the ABC bleating stay calm it’s just a flu..

    The Virus tests fail.
    Tests of known infected showed that the test kits has failure rates of over 90%.
    It appears rectal swabs may be the only way to properly test an infected.

    See the study below on this.

    Ximatosis or the 🇨🇳China Virus🦠 will spread first in Australia via the Chinese enclaves.

    Now we have 1.45 million Chinese mainland born in Australia – with 1.3 million compressed into vast Sydney and Melbourne Wuhan like fetid slum enclaves.

    But only 306,000 of these 1.4 million Chinese mainland born communists in Australia are actually Australian citizens!

    The other 1.1 million Chinese are all PR (340,000) & TR (490,000) or long stay visitors (270,000).
    On Chinese sole passports.
    Not Australians citizens.

    👉🏻Why should Australia provide any health care & support to a Chinese National on a PR, TR or TV?

    Most of the Chinese PR or TR / TV in Australia are ‘Hukou internal illegals’ Chinese lowlife who enter Australia fraudulently ($2k or 10,000 RMB buys an Australian PR in Guangzhou) or on a pretext TR & TV visa.

    Old useless unskilled Chinese peasantry, vice workers, petty criminals & social misfits being cleansed out of the Chinese tier 1 cities and dumped in Australia to be our burden.

    The Chinese Nationals living here have been a long standing economic and societal threat to Australia.

    In times of crisis – Australian citizens need to come first.
    The 1.1 million Chinese Nationals on a PR, TR & TV are now health care time bomb as the disease spreads thru their slum enclaves.

    They should have their PR, TR, TV etc revoked & be deported back to be China’s responsibility.
    Once again
    Chinese Nationals. Not Australian citizen.
    Deport the lot as preparation for the 🇨🇳Ximatosis🦠 pandemic about to hit.

    -/-

    February 21st 2020 China CDC.
    Fecal-oral transmission.

    The China Virus (corona virus or Covid-19) has many routes of transmission, which can partially explain” its rapid spread, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report Saturday.

    The agency recommends strengthening all border protection, sanitation and other hygiene measures to prevent fecal-oral and formite transmission.

    These include to only drink boiled water, avoiding eating raw food, implementing separate meal systems, frequent hand-washing, disinfecting toilets, and preventing water and food contamination from patients’ solid & urine or sanitary waste.

    “The virus can be transmitted through fecal-oral route,” the Chinese CDC said.

    “This means that stool or urine or bodily excretions will contaminate the air, objects and enter via touch or ingestion of food, water” aa well as airborne aerosol microbes entering the mouth or eyes, or when inhaled, they said.

    Virus testing – up to 90% rates of failure.

    Repeated testing of known infected virus carriers showed a failure rate of up to 90% with many being either asymptomatic or
    showing negative 7 or 8 times.
    (Sea Princess)

    Rectal swabs have been far more effective in detecting the pneumonia-causing virus in patients, when many of these conventional oral tests show false negatives, doctors at the Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital in central China said in a study.

    The novel SARS-like coronavirus is found in oral and anal swabs, and blood — indicating that infected patients shed the pathogen through respiratory, fecal-oral or body fluid routes, the authors said.

  17. Anyone know a listed company capable of quickly retooling for putting rectal swab attachments on e-passport gates?

  18. Hmmm… yes sophisticated AI driven height and depth perception might be beyond the local engineers with catastrophic results. Surely we can still at least make a simple heated probe somewhere in this country as a short term workaround?! Aussie tourist numbers down, Japanese up!

  19. unfortunately given aus lack of preparation and lock downs etc i suspect we are closer to Iran/ Italy than Singapore / HK etc. I know this flies in the face of what the experts in Aus claiming. hope they are right and I am wrong and have lots of canned food to eat over next six months