Coronavirus Dan cheers as grand prix imports drop like flies

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Via Domain:

Three Formula One personnel are in self-isolation and being tested for coronavirus, as the Australian Grand Prix Corporation denied suggestions it lobbied the federal government to hold off on an Italy travel ban to allow the Ferrari team into Australia.

Officials from the Haas and McLaren Formula One teams confirmed that members of their crews had gone into self-isolation on Wednesday after showing symptoms of the virus.

The Australian Grand Prix and Ferrari narrowly escaped an unprecedented travel ban on Italy, allowing the $60 million race and more than 300,000 spectators to file into Melbourne despite growing coronavirus fears.

News of the crew members going into self-isolation came hours after local hero Daniel Ricciardo cancelled a planned sponsor and media appearance for Renault because organisers did not want him to be exposed to a crowd of people in an enclosed space.

Clearly there are no restrictions on the team’s movements.

Congratualtions to Coronavirus Dan who has just turned Melbourne into Spanish Flu Philadelphia.

We noted that, in some cases, outcomes appear to have correlated with the quality and timing of the public health response. The contrast of mortality outcomes between Philadelphia and St. Louis is particularly striking (Fig. 1). The first cases of disease among civilians in Philadelphia were reported on September 17, 1918, but authorities downplayed their significance and allowed large public gatherings, notably a city-wide parade on September 28, 1918, to continue. School closures, bans on public gatherings, and other social distancing interventions were not implemented until October 3, when disease spread had already begun to overwhelm local medical and public health resources. In contrast, the first cases of disease among civilians in St. Louis were reported on October 5, and authorities moved rapidly to introduce a broad series of measures designed to promote social distancing, implementing these on October 7. The difference in response times between the two cities (≈14 days, when measured from the first reported cases) represents approximately three to five doubling times for an influenza epidemic. The costs of this delay appear to have been significant; by the time Philadelphia responded, it faced an epidemic considerably larger than the epidemic St. Louis faced. Philadelphia ultimately experienced a peak weekly excess pneumonia and influenza (P&I) death rate of 257/100,000 and a cumulative excess P&I death rate (CEPID) during the period September 8–December 28, 1918 (the study period) of 719/100,000. St. Louis, on the other hand, experienced a peak P&I death rate, while NPIs were in place, of 31/100,000 and had a CEPID during the study period of 347/100,000. Consistent with the predictions of modeling, the effect of the NPIs in St. Louis appear to have had a less-pronounced effect on CEPID than on peak death rates, and death rates were observed to climb after the NPIs were lifted in mid-November (79).

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Brace for a Melbourne virus explosion into April.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.