Brickworks: Housing crash SloMo’s fault

Some wisdom today from the Brickworks CEO:

Lindsay Partridge said preventing a big blowout in the jobless rate well beyond 10 per cent was crucial to housing and construction for the later part of 2020 and beyond.

But it was the jobless rate that could bring much harder times for the economy and a deeper malaise. He said after the 1987 stockmarket crash demand for property had been strong because buyers felt more comfortable with a bricks and mortar dwelling which would still be standing, rather than shares which had been stripped of value.

He said the New Zealand approach of a country-wide shutdown of all but essential services appeared to be the way to go, with the ”middle path’ taken by Prime Minister Scott Morrison a bigger threat to the economy if staged and partial restrictions were in place for six or nine months.

Yep, as we suggested. If so, we’d now be opening back up! There is no middle path with Wuhan flu. It’s all-in because all paths lead there anyway.

Sadly, Mr Partridge spoiled it with the usual spruik:

…The construction industry employs 1.2 million. “There’s no reason to shut down the construction industry,” he said.

But hey, we can forgive that. Construction sites are also about to close as states go around SloMo.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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  1. WA premier mark mgowans performance has impressed me. Stopped possible and confirmed infected cruise ships from docking at Fremantle. calls on them to leave our waters as no Australians on board. Cleared rotto island to house infected and other Aussies on another cruise ship forcing mandatory quarantine not this volunteer isolation rubbish. Still providing strict isolated escort for medical emergency if required. Making arrangements to escort foreign nationals straight to the airport to leave the country. Liasing with federal government to provide resources to prevent cruise ships approach to Fremantle harbour if they try to dock. That’s the way you do it.

    • Only slight stain is schools remain open. All other states are now closed or closing (QLD as of Monday).

    • He is finding his stride on some fronts but he has been very slow to get there and the schools situation has been a real problem. My wife is a primary teacher (not working thankfully due to a littlun at home) and they have been put in an impossible position. You simply cannot enforce social distancing with small kids, and the schools’ sanitary provisions are woeful.
      Also the absurdly strict testing criteria means they do not really have a handle on community spread. I know of a number of stories of people who’ve a very high likelihood of exposure – and symptoms – who are not getting a test. And then lack of PPE in hospitals also an issue. Been following AMA WA Presidnet Andrew Miller’s Twitter feed and he has been an exceptional voice in regards the need to get onto things early.
      Sense is starting to prevail so hopefully we will get on top of it now…

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        When everything is over, we will discover what ScoMo have threatened the state with to keep the schools open. I don’t think any of the states wants to keep schools open at all, with Glady in NSW shouting on TV saying “don’t go to school”.

      • innocent bystanderMEMBER

        well, they don’t have supplies of PPE
        nor enough test kits.
        but can’t say that cause … politician.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      But, but he’s Labor and everything is their fault – just ask Scotty and the rest of the LNP.

    • Better than NSW, but not up to China standards. Large risk is the number of infected travelers coming back by plane. We need some tougher enforcement on the quarantining of all arrivals.

  2. mate who works on large construction sites in Sydney is spewing.. had to take train most of the time. He predicts everyone at work to get infected in the next 4 weeks unless business shuts. Many are contractors with large mortgages and he knows most will not self isolate if they feel any symptoms as they simply can’t afford.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      yes I have similar interactions with employees and other business operators, people cannot stop cos of the mortgage, I got employees shytting themselves and one employee saying he has to either work 5 days or be sacked to get a mortgage holiday from the bank. there are growing calls for a shutdown of 6 weeks, this will decimate most people

    • Display NameMEMBER

      This is what happens when you do not have a buffer. Min 6 months cash sitting around. I always did and only used a bit of it once, and was glad to, This is going to get a lot messier.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Most people don’t have a 6-month buffer the government had better provide one or home invasions will start becoming a daily occurrence

    • Just spent an hour on real estate websites doing some research – basically put your search onto “map view” and go to sea side towns like Inverloch, Venus Bay, Point Lonsdale – some are showing up as about 20%+ of the entire town as listed for sale.

      Never seen a deluge like it.

      I would know perhaps 50 families with holiday houses – every single one of them relies to some degree on AirBnB, Stayz is way more popular, to pay the mortgage.

      Anyone who does not lose their job – and has a second mortgage which relies on these things to fund them is about to get completely wiped out. Not sure if many have considered this.

      The mortgage holidays are not going to be offered to people who have not lost their jobs – but things have suddenly become a bit tight.

      Tsunami coming.

  3. we’d now be opening back up!

    Please don’t start that – its an absolutely, completely and utterly absurd proposition. It really is.

  4. Construction sites are also about to close as states go around SloMo.

    Don’t underestimate the power of the CFMEU in Qld. They and the master builders are on a unity ticket to keep the tools up.

  5. Important point … post GFC the Irish had a impossible time getting skilled trades back which was a huge drag on the recovery – so much for boom bust economic musings.

    • Yes but in Ireland they all went home to Eastern Europe. Here the government will pay them to stay and flights are grinding to a stop.

      • Nah – there are lots of amazing documentaries on the Irish diaspora from the crash – the Irish kids all left – it wasn’t just the Polish.

        It really screwed them over.

        And we are talking about post Covid – flights will resume and there will be mass emigration. There is absolutely nothing worse than being in a foreign country during a downturn – its 100% baked in – people will leave, not only that the only people coming will be the bottom of the barrel economic refugees now hitting Europe.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          I worked with a shyte load of Irishmen and women at Cloudbreak 2011 to 2014.
          They all had 2008-9 horror stories of financial ruin.
          It was the only reason any of them were in NW Western Australian

        • Had social association with a couple that moved to Ireland pre GFC in the child protection services industry, lets say things got considerably worse post GFC, too the point they came back to Australia or be permanently PTSD’ed by it all.

          These were well educated and experienced educators with exposure to some of Brisbane’s lower socioeconomic regions.

      • Well I think the run up to the tiger economy was to fast in the first place and had upper bound risk baked in, which then acerbated the down draft. Gotta remember all the bond shenanigans [Hudson-esque] which also distorted distribution vectors in putting a floor under the broader economy, thus adding to the flight of skilled labour.