See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
Where it stops nobody knows:
Related, the bond bash runs on as foreign funds liquidate and pull the cash:
XJO is folding under the pressure:
No end to the rout. Dalian is soft but no worse:
Big Iron is hilariously booming:
Big Oil is hilariously busting:
Big Gold just can’t get moving:
Big Banks are an indistinguishable blood clot:
Big Realty has nothing but downside as realty goes no bid:
Pain but not enough!
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)
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Its the best of times! Relations party at mine soon.
Sure is. Speaking of which – where’s Reus?
Hanging from the rafters in a sex act gone wrong.
It’s happened to all of us at some point.
Yep, it’s the embarrassment wot kills you.
It’s easily done ..
If the RBA don’t absolutely smash the market with QE, I honestly wonder if they will lose control of the AUD and bond rates.
AUD into 56s is a startling rate of decline, and has got to be some signals of a loss of faith in Australia as an entity. As I keep saying, why hold anything AUD?
How is that not some sort of disturbing Australian financial crisis?
And, from at least an Australian point of view, how is all of this, combined with flickerings of a loss-of-faith event, not early hyperinflation of the AUD?
Maybe I’m premature in saying the above…but as an AUD bear, who is making a killing of my USD positions (really just holding international buying power, I think), I reiterate that the rate of decline in the AUD is startling. It doesn’t just seem ‘risk-off’ – it seems ‘Australia-off’, dump everything Aussie in particular, as if it seems Aussies won’t be able to pay their bills soon…
+1
They have coughed up any semblance of trying to ‘manage’ this and are presumably toying with the idea of a last ditch attempt to regain control with the AUD circa 48. If they fail there dont look down
I’m holding stock in $USD which is also getting smashed by not as bad as $AUD.
you may be able to line wipe your mortgage soon
Won’t be able to? The way I see it we haven’t been able to for a long time and it’s all been held together through sh!tf#ckery and chicanery.
Maybe it’s just that the rest of the world have realised what absolute arsehats we’ve been.
Are you saying that QE is going to prop the AUD up? Serious question.
And I still don’t see how QE is going to help one bit other than to pump the money supply up — better off printing and sending cheques. That way every citizen who needs support gets some. I still haven’t had one person successfully explain to me how QE is going to help the average man in the street. Not one – which is no surprise seeing as no rational explanation exists. Rates are already at their lows. End of.
Maybe your expectations of QEs intent are skewif
(I know they actually aren’t)
Quantitative Easing is what pretentious people prefer to call money printing. I think it’s a self-esteem thing – makes the right people feel and sound more sophisticated.
Best mates father told me during the Great Depression the poor got nothing and the wealthy were looked after. QE will be used for the same purpose.
Welcome to the Great Depression.
A great deal of suffering and pain to come for our Australian family.
Very sad.
That about sums it up.
Again thinking aloud…
On another note: to AUD bears (like myself): it’s possible that the RBA will also choose to defend the AUD – or even peg it!? – so be careful!
I’m sure that any hint of it could cause a brutal reversal (even if only temporary).
They’ll let it fall and do its job of making Australia competitive.
John Hempton said on a Jolly Swagmen podcast that he privately had discussions with Guy Debelle about tolerable levels for the AUD and 0.25 was mentioned as a level they might start defending.
0.25! Those chumps are having a laugh. The economy will be decimated by then. And then what? Raise rates to defend?
What a fiasco. Sorry but wealth is measured by what your AUD buys in global markets. Not so long ago one A$ bought more than one US$ so 0.25c represents a devastating decline in real wealth. BHP selling iron ore for mega AUDs doesn’t benefit me personally in any way shape or form – even if the country’s accounts look prettier for it.
+1 Australia’s collective wealth has evaporated in the last 2 weeks. But don’t worry the Adults are in charge. I’m glad I didn’t hold my savings in $AUD for long.
MQG from $151 down to $79.5 in a month.
Looks like the “millionaire factory” might have caught a bad case of the corona.
CBA getting smashed, but it’s got some serious catching down to do. It’s 3 cousins are showing the way.
but Martin LOLkos
I’ll buy when it hits $10
Why are bond yields up when QE is coming at 2:30?
Possible front running? (likely, at least in part)
Could also be that the market has decided they don’t care anyway, and that Australia assets are worth spit…not true, but it’s increasingly the case – with every AUD drop, the case to hold anything AUD at all is getting poorer vs alternatives…
How is selling bonds “front running”?
That’d be the market cogitating on the possibility that whatever the RBA does, it wont be enough
“the bond bash runs on as foreign funds liquidate and pull the cash”
QE in the lucky country doesn’t matter to foreign funds in desperate need of cash
+1
Cos we’re expecting QE to be QFailure
Or should that be “cue failure”?
Nah I’m sure it will work this time lol.
geez 56.5, its dropping fast.
I just terminated a small term deposit. I explained to the woman what I was going to do with it (Perth Mint, to top up what I just bought today) and she said a lot of people were going to buy Westpac shares. I kept my mouth shut.
have been slow to get portions of my dosh out of the bank, if i terminate an account can i get all of it either transferred or cashed out straight away?
Asura. Depending on the amount, you could simply ask for cash. Alternatively, for larger amounts, banks offer a rapid electronic transfer facililty to other Australian banks for a fee of $35. Has to be done over the counter with 100 points of ID. I did this just this week on $100k and it was in the other bank account within 2 hrs.
have roughly 16k rotting in an old bendigo account, unfortunately as i don’t go out or travel i haven’t bothered to keep my ID’s up to date. guess ill just go in and ask what my options are. Cheers!
Driving license plus a card with a PIN should be enough to do the electronic thing. I think $16k might be too much for a cash withdrawal. You can always ask for a bank cheque made out to yourself for the full amount. Then drive to the other bank and deposit it. Will take about three days to clear
You should have given her a Cackling witch like laughter and got her questioning her assumptions,
https://youtu.be/orYcAiFqknU
that’s interesting. had heard that some banks weren’t allowing TD terminations.
holy crapola oil shares
Don’t catch that falling knife — wait a bit
getting itchy fingers Dom
i’m with you Swampy they are on my watch list
Well then, dip your toe in – but don’t go FULL RETARD!
look at it drop with scummo talking on something! fckn shut the fckn up scummo!!
Will I get sent to Christmas Island for proposing that this might indicate that Australia’s fundamentals are f*cking sh*t? Or does that only happen if I don’t blame Labor for them?
into the 55’s !! i’ve never seen it drop so fast !!
scummo addressed the nation. i think he mentioned the aud and who knows where it could go.
it can go off the cliff!
holy shyte i just refreshed the page and had to second guess myself, what the hell was that?
Meh,…wasn’t it in the low 50s in the early 2000s?
Back when we made And exported a lot more value added stuff?
Lets get it down into the 30s!
The Boomers will list their houses in USD, as usual they’ll be fine.
My local bullion merchant has shut down temporarily due to overwhelming demand.
Another version of ‘dump AUD’!
Crikey, it might be ‘on’…
Is that brisvegas bullion? I ordered and paid for some shiny stuff a few days back but they aren’t providing any pickup times.
That’s the one
Even happened to the Perth mint in 08
It’ll happen again too. Get in now or join the line.
jeebus. i went big in USD/YANK a month ago and i’m almost scared looking at thesse green numbers. too good to be true and i’ve got no idea what could come.
Yeah, aside from a systemic loss-of-faith in Australia Inc (which would be catastrophic), there’s got to be massive snap-back coming IF – IF! – the RBA absolutely back the bond market with an enormous QE bazooka…
If not, how is the AUD not going to dump, dump, dump, and bond yields rise??
Surely it’s all too quick the the big boys and girls are setting things up for major trades, ala pump and dump / dump and pump???!
WOOF! On Yank today.
55s AUD….surely that’s too fast, and something is wrong…
Maybe Global investors have been watching our PM and his Parties performance on the Telly and have decided,…those Guys are Farked!
My manager bought more Afterpay shares yesterday, he was also holding energy stocks he purchased two months ago.
He has no idea
bcnich. That is all I have to say. Those who know will know
Da
Amen.
*paging bcnich*
I have a proposal for a new Australian National Anthem. The Great Warren Zevon.
“My Shit’s Fucked Up” Veey appropriate I think.
https://youtu.be/LbhYqV17CoQ
Or maybe this one https://youtu.be/kZx_TokIHdI
Love Warren Zevon
I was driving around with my 19 year old son the other day, and he pulled out his phone and started his Spotify playlist. First cab off the rank was “Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner”. My kids have spent most of their time in my car listening to my fairly eclectic music collection, so they’re now Zevon fans too. I feel like I raised them well. 🙂
Desperadoes Under The Eaves is more fitting