Via The Guardian:
Australian tourism bosses have warned that hotels could be forced out of business if the coronavirus outbreak continues to severely restrict visitor numbers.
Hotels in Cairns and the Gold Coast – both destinations supported by large numbers of visitors from China, South Korea and Japan – are advertising rooms at half the normal tariff this week. Heavy discounts are also on offer in major cities, though city markets are better insulated from the loss of an estimated 150,000 Chinese tourists who would otherwise be in Australia.
The chief executive of Tourism Accommodation Australia, Michael Johnson, said: “It would be fair to say we’re currently in this hole, but we don’t know how deep this hole is. I would say there’s certainly hotels and properties in locations that are suffering that may find themselves [facing closure] because the funds just aren’t available.
“Cash-flow is king. There are hotels in bushfire-affected areas that have been losing money for four months in a row.”
Johnson said that even though Sydney was trading relatively well, the city was probably 10% down in terms of both occupancy and average room rates in February. Regional destinations were at greater risk.
In Cairns, the tourism industry estimates losses could total $100m by the end of the month. The worst-case scenario is also the loss of about 1,800 local jobs.
Of all Australian destinations, Cairns and far north Queensland face a unique risk. The area is heavily reliant on the usual stream of Asian visitors coming to see the Great Barrier Reef and the tropical rainforests. Because Cairns is remote, it cannot pivot as quickly or easily to attract more domestic travellers.
The chief executive of Tropical North Queensland Tourism, Mark Olsen, said the industry had “never faced a tougher time” in Cairns and the reef. “There will be long-term effects. Even coming in to 2020 … we’ve seen a significant reduction in our air-seat capacity [and] the bushfire crisis driving down visitation from long-haul markets.”
The news is not good. Sadly, the timing of seasons means that as the virus dissapears in the northern hemisphere it will burgeon in the local winter, preventing any tourism recovery until deep spring:
Australian tourism does indeed face ruin. I expect it to come south to the major capitals in due course.
That means retail as well given tourism accounts for 10% of that:
Tourism is estimated to make up just over 10% of #retail spending in Australia, so reduced movement into and within Australia is likely to substantially impact the retail sector. Dining out is likely to be hit hardest. @Adelaide__T @DavidPlank12 #ausecon #austourism #ausbiz pic.twitter.com/wkRd9Xl6QJ
— ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) March 4, 2020
