Australian dollar blasts off on Trump mass murder strategy

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Chinese stocks to the moon as Australian dollar lifts

DXY was soft again last night:

The Australian dollar rallied against everything:

Everything rallied, actually:

Except bonds:

Stocks to the moon!

The Fed played its part. Charlie McElligott at Nomura decribes the robot’s reaction to QE infinity:

The Fed’s unprecedented “Bazooka” policy response escalation–where they are not just adding market liquidity-, short term lending- / financing- for corporates as well as USD funding access-; but now buying risk-assets / spread-product directly or via the new SPV—is engendering profit-taking in “long vol” monetization (over 30k UX1 futures sold yday across the VIX ETN / ETF complex), and gradually, resumption of “short vol” trades from systematic strategies; while today’s jarring “limit up” rally too will see the CTA Trend signal in Nasdaq futures return to “LONG”…

Monster “risk-on” overnight with Equities (OpEx “Gamma Release” nails the mkt inflection yet again), Commodities and Risk FX screaming higher…while USTs trade lower and Eq Vol is again HAMMERED for now the third-consecutive session

  • Meanwhile, the nature of the particulars in European Equities this morning are telling, as it is “Deep Cyclicals” / “Value” / “Leveraged Balance Sheet” / “High Beta” which are leading the charge higher today
  • Why?  Both on account of substantial covering of these astronomically-pressed “shorts” in these growth-sensitive sectors (obviously rational, per the certain economic shock due to the virus shutdown)…but also too that discretionary traders are looking to play some offense and tactically play “long” in the stuff which is most-sensitive to the forward benefits of the unprecedented double mon-pol and fiscal pol stimulus being unleashed in-response to the COVID pandemic

Despite the obvious conclusion that markets want Congress to deliver a massive fiscal stimulus package ASAP (just now getting bullish reports from CNBC on a “agreement” over one the of the big stumbling-blocks btwn Dems and Reps being “oversight”), do not dismiss what the Fed and other central banks are in the process of doing—which is not just acting as liquidity-, short-term lending- and USD funding- provider of last resort…but also now as the “chief risk-taker and CIO”.

There was the looming fiscal package as well.

I’ll not even try to tease out what triggered the lift in buying. It was just enough all up.

So, we might be into our first decent bear market rally since the crisis began.

Or not. The problem is that the virus is completely out of control in the US with both cases and deaths doubling every two days:

Within a week it will be 1k deaths per day. Within two, barring intensified shutdown, it will be 10k deaths per day:

Which makes the following at the FT insane:

There have been few politicians more loyal to Donald Trump than Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican senator who has been the president’s most prominent defender on everything from Supreme Court nominees to impeachment.

But on the most critical issue now facing the White House, Mr Graham has visibly broken from his president: whether to begin reopening the US economy despite international medical agreement that an extended lockdown is critical to stopping the coronavirus pandemic.

“Try running an economy with major hospitals overflowing, doctors and nurses forced to stop treating some because they can’t help all, and every moment of gut-wrenching medical chaos being played out in our living rooms, on TV, on social media, and shown all around the world,” Mr Graham wrote on Twitter.

“There is no functioning economy unless we control the virus.”

Because the private sector will shut down anyway.

Discussion of forex and the Australian dollar sure jars with the above. But that’s why we’re here so here it is. As the virus tears the heart out of the US economy, I put it to you that DXY will most likely rise as markets enter another panic. After all, it is very much a replay of the GFC at that point.

But, if the Wuhan flu is allowed to rip through the country in a mass murder virus strategy then it will burn out much quicker than elsewhere. The economy will rebound quicker as well, which may pose the risk of an Australian dollar rebound before too long. At least until it becomes clear that our own lockdown will have to persist over Winter, unless we also elect to mass murder our own.

Yeh, liberal democracy has seen better days.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. While on the topic:

    Singapore study finds SCHOOL CLOSURES NECESSARY in combating disease.

    Tough combined measures key in virus fight: study

    Quarantining infected people, workplace distancing and school closures are most effective in combating the spread of the new coronavirus when implemented together, according to new research released looking at Singapore’s response to the killer disease.

    Researchers from the National University of Singapore saw a dramatic drop in projected cases when all three physical distancing measures were done at once.

    But they warned that if a large number of infected people in the community had no symptoms, or if infection rates were very high, the policies had a much reduced effect.

    Singapore has used a policy of testing and tracing of COVID-19 patients to limit the spread of the virus, without ordering a widespread lockdown of society and the economy.

    • The Australian government cares about the housing market. Nothing else. End of story.

      Kids are to be kept in schools so mum/dad can go get an income to pay the mortgage/rent.

      Real estate, construction, lending etc. is by and large THE Australian economy and the only meaningful thing the government has any control over. It cannot influence how much iron ore is dug up out of the ground, for example. It cannot influence the iron ore price or gold price either. Every action you see from the Sсum government can be traced to real estate.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        ScoMo just cancelled all open house and auction, which will decimate the real estate market. So maybe he is just crazy stupid.

        • I’m in two minds about the outcome of that, Ronin. But I have absolutely no doubt it that was a decision made on the basis of a bunch of factors that were well thought through on preventing a real estate market crash.

          The basis of public health was secondary, if anything, in that decision.

          • We shall see

            In non Mel/Syd markets (e.g. non auction) private treaty still rules and you can still do private inspections

            I can tell you this for a fact – people are still inspecting houses people are still buying and people are still listing/selling

            It might jar with your crashik narrative, but it is still happening

        • The first thought that came to my mind about it was that it’s like when the NYSE halts trading when at a certain percentage drop. Except this is pre-emptive. I.e. the government believes there will be a sell-off and house prices will crash. So, it significantly restricts trading activity for the time being.

        • Coup de Whiskey

          No – he’s just called a trading halt. This will stop prices falling through the floor.

        • This may just – possibly – make the housing market function more normally.

          Ie. to sell, properties will need to be advertised with a price. (Although I’m sure a lot of agents will put “by negotiation” and try to reel in a sucker, it will be a lot harder than under the high-pressure auction strategy).
          And only genuine buyers will bother going to home inspections (they will be private inspections), not neighbours, observers and nosey speculators.

          Sounds like how a housing market OUGHT to operate to me.

        • Actually it’s the opposite – Scummo has determined that if the property market is left to its own devices these next few months, there’s a danger it’ll crater. He’s thinking if he effectively shuts it down for 3 months – it’ll just pick up from where it left off when everything recovers, with the added benefit of improved sentiment — and same old untouched prices 😉

          Complete nonsense, of course, as the world will not be the same again — but logic works in strange ways ..

          • Correct. Stop the volume. Crash the prices. Should be fun to watch the parasite brokers go to the wall.

          • Report from Ballina RE agent last weekend – 13 auctions – not a single BID at any of them.

          • Jeez, flawse – an honest RE agent. Don’t see many of those around. I received a flyer in the mail box the other day from a Ray White agent bagging the other local agents — I thought I was looking at one of those election flyers!

      • MountainGuinMEMBER

        Even following the housing first narrative doesn’t work. Mum and dad can’t work to support a mortgage if the school crowds infect the kids and then infect the parents who infect the workplaces.

        • I’m pretty sure scomo isn’t smart enough to think that far ahead, anything beyond immediate effects and he’s out of his depth.
          Which is kind of terrifying given the circumstances.

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        My BIGGEST concern through all of this, is what happens to my daily smashed avo intake (at home), if the avocado supply chain is disrupted. Avocados do not freeze too well -i’ve tried.

        As we watch the Property Facade crumble, how am i going to effectively enjoy the carnage without my daily smashed avo fix?

        • I think you’ll be fine — went in to Coles y’day and while stocks of food were decimated, avos were plentiful.

          Hipsters have either suddenly perished — or gone to ground and eating baked beans instead (the horror!)

        • Bucket loads of avos at 2.5 pip.

          Take this opp to buy a variety suiting your climate and plant one. Bacon variety for cold climes

          Our trees are loaded. Northern Rivers avos look good. There’s supply.

          • Canberra almost impossible for avos but if I buy a house with a sunny courtyard I’m gonna give it a go in a pot, might have to move it indoors for winter.

          • there are a couple of cold climate varietals
            check out daleys nursery kyogle

            bacon as a starting point, in a north facing spot, wall behind it helps (courtyard for example)

  2. happy valleyMEMBER

    “unless we also elect to mass murder our own.”

    We’re always all the way with the USA.

    • Coup de Whiskey

      They’re deliberately following a “boomer doomer” strategy.

      Why did they let in in 31,000 Chinese students after ban?
      Why let 3 flights a week from Wuhan land in Sydney?
      Why let all those people off the cruise ship?

      Kill the boomers – lower pension liabilities. Retirees who leech off social services can be replaced by younger migrants.

      • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

        But he is also killing his own voter base by doing that.

        Unless he plans to replace them with the Chinese students (soon to be PR’s).

  3. happy valleyMEMBER

    How long before The Donald says he has never heard of or met a Lindsey Graham?

    • Lol

      It’s funny, but the Donald simply hates situations he can’t control — he’s blowing gaskets every day trying to figure out a ‘better way’ to deal with this. The election looms large.

  4. GunnamattaMEMBER

    I know it is stating the obvious, but Trump is certifiable.

    The downside is that he is the face in chief of a mindset and thought process which has been running the world for a generation or more.

    • Russian case numbers starting to pick up now…….this is how you inspire people to pull together

      https://www.rt.com/russia/483958-putin-hazmat-suit-hospital-coronavirus/

      Chinese recent experience shows that nations will need to control everyone and everything that comes into a country for an extended period until we see how this really breaks……no V-shaped recovery anywhere. Command and control economies everywhere.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/health/china-coronavirus-official-warns-resurgence-blames-foreigners

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        When is Scotty from Marketing going to do a Vlad and get up close and personal to his own brand ScoVID-19?

      • Looks like Vlad’s manning Russia’s next space launch …

        I think, after the bushfire debacle, Scotty’s steering clear of ‘citizen interactions’ — that said shaking the hands of the sick and dying would be a much easier task as they wouldn’t have the strength to resist.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      There are other example in history where a country’s leader condemn its population to unnecessary mass death through stupidity. Mao’s Great Leap Forward killed 30 million through starvation. Trump won’t beat that.

      • Love in the time of Corona

        Cannot be serious. It’s like his rubbishing the virus tweet that I thought would be relatively unpopular and had five times his normal number of likes. Well the virus doesn’t care what your politics are.

    • Point BreakMEMBER

      +100. I can’t stand him. Remember the UK’s top secret plan to install a psychopath as leader during the war? The logic being he/she could make strategic decision without empathy and the cost of human life. Seems the yanks beat them to it. If he can’t lose the election on the economy, he’ll probably start war.

      • hard to say at this stage but time may prove he saved more lives by letting virus go wild

        leaders of the other countries should be worried because now they will be able to be compared to something different

        • At last someone with some lateral thinking. Everyone on this faaarken site thinks the same. Why can’t they all be wrong? They can.
          Such a state of media induced panic only reinforces the notion most people cannot think for themselves and are easily manipulated. Trump will sheeet in the next election.

      • Settle down people. The is no right answer to this question there are only priorities. Trumps priority is the economy. If you old I assume your priority is your life. If that’s the case you need to stay home with no contact with people and look after your self while the rest of us get back to work.

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          Donald’s priorities are getting the US stockmarkets (his only KPI) back to the moon and getting re-elected, whatever it takes?

          • I would argue Trumps priority is to keep the USA suprmemcey and keep jobs going. If the Trump haters could just get there head around that they may see why Trump does what he does and maybe even be able to pridiction his movements going forwforword. Wow then you might make some money from that.Unfortuantley most trump haters cant get past their hate to try and understand

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          You think an economy can function with people dropping dead on the street? A lot of restaurant are empty before the quarantine is in place.

          • People dropping dead on the streets. Wow. Nice visual there. I think most will be dropping dead in their beds or in hospital. And yes i do think it can run with panicked people like you buying endless amounts of toilet paper there will be jobs for all. Relax Ronnie. The only people who die will be the ones who have contact with other people.
            Do you know the alternative. It a complete lockdown. Lasting the winter. Then when its all finished no arrivals travel to or from overseas for the next year then every time there is a virus scare in this country another lock down. I recon that will be four to five times a year for the next decade. I dont chose that. Do you.

        • Please go and look at the ages of the cases.
          And comorbidities.
          And the % of pop with comorbidities.

        • good one Col … nice to see there are people on here who can actually see beyond prejudices and cliches …

          another one for you … what are you’all out there going to do when the ‘underprivileged’, and others with the Progressives’ sense of entitlement, start calling in what they think they are entitled to???

          A few deaths from the virus is what everyone needs to see happen to bring home the reality of ignoring the degradation of our health facilities, overloading our infrastructure with the population ponzi and on it goes.

          Everyone has sat back and enjoyed the ephemeral bounty of globalisation and either ignored or willingly supported the idea of China being the world’s factory – now we reap the whirlwind.

          The economic reset is beginning. The ride will be rough but we, collectively, deserve it ….

  5. The Fed promises to print about $100billion a day this week, not for hospital beds, hazmat suits, medicine, or food deliveries for the sick and elderly… but to buy a candy jar full of assorted financial markets trinkets!

    In days past (long past), Americans would have rioted on this outrageous news. They may have dragged members of congress and the Fed into the street and killed them. Today, they just stand there and do nothing, while they are decimated by the invading Corona army. This is the biggest sign yet (in a long line of such signs) that the American empire is doomed.

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_032420.html

    • Oh the irony! The second amendment is there to allow the people to protect themselves from wayward governments, and here we are with Americans shooting each other in the name of democracy and their constitutional rights, while their government rapes them!

  6. He gambled his 2nd term yesterday. Come Easter, the US daily death count and the populations reaction to it means he will lose.

        • You have some mates here you know. There are plenty of bigots too but just disregard them and have fun with them, They take themselves very seriously..

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Yep – like ScoMo, only his chosen ones will survive and therefore be able to vote?

        • Possibly. Look at the largest areas for those testing positive in the US. NYC, California and Washington State, all heavily blue states. Then add to the fact that the US doesn’t have compulsory voting, therefore it is the older generations who are more likely to vote, if all the elderly in these states are dead, it might help him.

          Ultimately though, he’s never going to turn those states and the electoral college system will mean he has to win the swing states – Florida (might get help there with oldies gone), Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Minnesota.

    • As I stated yesterday, I bet last week was the bottom when gold/silver peaked at 126.43 for the first time in the entire written history of Homo Sapiens.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” he said. “In China they nipped it in the bud in the nick of time. In the U.S. we might have, or we might not have. We just don’t know.”

      They most certainly have not. Minimal bud-nipping til’ recently. The flywheel has a bit to unwind unfortunately.

      With stimulus thrown in to energise the bounce, the dislocation in market participants expectations makes for excellent, if not macabre, trading.

    • So either no-one in China has corona virus now, or everyone is now immune because they all got it. The chances of either one seems pretty low.

  7. Ajaydee73MEMBER

    And when unemployment is 50% and crime is through the roof how many people will die from the economic effects? It could be millions.

    • yep, there needs to be a balance on the risk reward spectrum across both the economy and the likely death rate.
      This is a war type situation it seems, at least for the next 8 weeks!.
      Then we are likely heading back to some normality

      • Eeryone 70 and over together with anyone susceptible have an ankle bracelet or some tracking device. You are at home till we tell you you aren’t. Delivery services for groceries and pharmaceuticals will be provided. If you need to go to hospital ring this number 811. If you n are found outside n your home there is an immediate fine of $20K and you will receive no more medical services of any kind.
        Let the rest of the community get on with their lives and keep this basket case of an economy sort of running.
        BTW I’m 71. This would heavily impinge on my hopes of attending Reusa’s parties but….

    • blindjusticeMEMBER

      Tasmania had the highest median age of all the states and territories (42 years), followed by South Australia (40 years). The Northern Territory had the lowest median age (33 years), followed by the Australian Capital Territory (35 years).
      All Australia: Between 30 June 2018 and 30 June 2019 the median age remained steady at 37 years.
      https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/1CD2B1952AFC5E7ACA257298000F2E76?OpenDocument

      Australia is no spring chicken. Potential for a huge cultural change as a result as the dynamics of the population changes too.

      • Send all the boomers to Tasmania? Then they can have their own country. liberals can go with them?

    • Stop the panic. If you want to live stay home with no contact with others. It’s not as if the Germans are coming. I’m off to work cos I wouldn’t have it any other way.

    • I was thinking when does the east surrendered. With no access to our universities and no ability to steal technology do you think the east will suddenly learn how to innovate themselves?

  8. blockrockin beat

    All the negativity on here! Here’s another take – the US President has access to much better info than you do. Maybe he now knows with a high degree of confidence that HCQ and Azithromycin in combination is an effective treatment against the Chinese virus. In these times, countries and leaders need not wait years for mass trials to be completed. Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good and all that. Right now there is a critical shortage of both drugs but the supply response is coming. The supply response is ramping up https://t.co/s9s5VH5Utu?amp=1

    https://www.novartis.com/news/media-releases/novartis-commits-donate-130-million-doses-hydroxychloroquine-support-global-covid-19-pandemic-response

    Maybe there is a plan to let Americans return to work by Easter in a staggered approach once sufficient supply of both is available and can be taken prophilactically to avoid infection (young returns to work first whilst older still quarantined until safe). I suspect the market has behaved as such not so much because to stimulus measures but because it perceives this to be a potentially realistic path to restarting the economy! I for one am hopeful!

    • Hope is not a strategy.The history of using these sort of agents in the past has not been good.You don’t think the Italians are throwing everything at this?Remember the northern Italians have high quality health care.Trumps track record also is not good.The people that may be in the know(is the doctors)are not saying the same thing as Trump

    • Hope so but Trump is not a reliable source so even if he has access to info that this drug might be good, he’d exaggerate it and lose all the nuance of the position.

    • Seriously? Do you have a stake in Novartis?

      You said ‘Maybe he now knows with a high degree of confidence that HCQ and Azithromycin in combination is an effective treatment against the Chinese virus.’

      The Novartis statement: ‘Hydroxychloroquine and a related drug, chloroquine, are currently under evaluation in clinical trials for the treatment of COVID-19.

      Novartis Sandoz division will pursue appropriate regulatory authorizations and, upon approval, will work with stakeholders to determine how best to get this medicine to the patients who need it’

      read the disclaimer for more lols

      • There’s a lot of empire defending going on and these medicos (mainly GP’s that I’ve seen) are basically saying “we don’t give a ra if people are dying. There are plenty of infectious disease blokes saying ‘get on with it…what’s to lose?’

        Despite the extremist dogmatic desire to kill anyone older than 50 that evilly runs through this blog perhaps Trump actually does give a RA and is willing to jump a few puddles in the process.
        In actuality again we have lawyers killing people. Everyone is scared of the lawyers It’s their game and they make up all the rules.

        • I don’t understand how there is an extremist view at MB to kill everyone over 50, when they are actually advocating total shutdown, to predominantly protect people over 50?

          Are you supposing, despite evidence to the contrary, that MB want old people to die?

          I don’t understand.

          • Then you need to read some of the posts. The coarse language and ugliness directed at Boomers is rife. MB has this big anti-Boomer programne running which sets this ugly s..t in motion. Not only is it ugly – it is wrong and MB seems economically clueless. All the troubles are blamed on ‘Boomers’ which is BS! Total absolute BS. The economic basket case of an economy has destroyed many boomers who ran productive businesses. The people who cheer this crap on are the money who want an even more extreme version of the stupidity.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      If the US have enough test kits that can return results within the hour, then re-opening is possible. Everyone going to work will get tests themselves in the morning, and anyone positive will isolate themselves. Returning to work without enough test kit is going to push the number of infected to 200 million, with 10 to 20 million death.

      • DingwallMEMBER

        Testing is a huge key …. this morning the speaker after the idiot Trump has provided some positivity re. testing.

        • Amazing!! trump didn’t have a clue what the bloke was about to say????? That’s what all the self adulating clowns in here are saying.

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        Agree with this. Meanwhile Richard Wilkins has had his third test but critical workers are still being rejected for their first test because they aren’t meeting strict criteria. I think at this stage it’s surely more important to identify if high-value workers have it at all so they can continue doing their job than that Wilko gets back to his two minute gig once a week incoherently fangirling for the celeb of the week.

      • I agree. But, a system like that is not going to be up and running within 4 weeks. It will be more like 8-12 weeks. Trump is raising false hope of an early “release” and people are going to be pretty bummed out when they are finally told the true situation. Plus, even if covid19 turns out to be statistically similar to the flu (as some people claim), footage of the Javits Centre bursting at the seems with ventilated patients will be pretty unnerving for many viewers.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/kudlow-says-trump-wants-economy-open-but-won-t-ignore-doctors?srnd=premium

      Access to better info? Possibly he is listening to the voices in his head. He is a friggin idiot

      “This cure is worse than the problem,” Trump said. “In my opinion, more people are going to die if we allow this to continue.”

      Apparently he also said “suicides from economic downturn would exceed virus deaths”

      “I hope and pray our president knows something I don’t know,” West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, a Republican and staunch Trump supporter, said at a news conference.

      Also the idiot is talking live …… he is just gushing vague crap BUT the next speakers are saying better things about testing

      • Interesting to note cure worse than problem appeared on Fox, and now Trump parroting

        Roger is still dictating the narrative!

      • No delusions in South Korea and China where they used that drug. Look at the curve in South Korea

  9. DingwallMEMBER

    While Scumbag is ensuring his “health experts” don’t do what they would like to do (which is to try and save as many people as possible) to keep what he thinks is the economy rolling on, the country is still hugely divided with lots thinking the same while others rage. I wonder looking back how many will think “well I kept my work going and bought another investment property ……… but (insert a random selection of family members including out to second cousins and friends and colleagues and neighbours) are no longer with us”.

  10. Trump cars more about his re-election and the economy and not about listening to experts as he is an a grade narcissist. He doesn’t listen.

    Good to know moms and pops were buying the Dow Jones propaganda index….sif

  11. Why anyone would want to hold a short position when Trump was jump about to launch massive stimulus is beyond me.
    The end of the quarter wasn’t going to help either.
    Swampy you are a genius.

  12. Totally incredible. USA had 10000 new cases just yesterday! Spain 4500. And they are thinking of opening it back up. Is this latest Trump narrative to keep the masses calm? I have seen footage of the National Guard rolling through town. Trains carrying armoured vehicles….

    • I am perplexed by this as well. Figures seem to show that Italy and Spain are out of control, but Germany is containing it. Trump is gambling that New York will be more like Germany. I used to think so as well, but now I think it might be more like Spain. Germany’s case numbers include a lot of mild cases, whereas New York has only been testing people who are sick enough to consider hospitalisation. I can’t understand why the California numbers are so low. Maybe they are hardly doing any tests, or they are not testing the right people? In any case, does this look like a “Trump Pump & Dump”? i.e. talk up the market for a couple of days to give your rich friends a chance to unload, but then in 2 weeks, when the hospitals are full, the market will go even lower?
      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
      PS: I just clicked the button to switch my super from “Balanced” to “Conservative Balanced”. (my wife asked me to do this 2 weeks ago, but I was not smart enough to take her advice; now I’m doing it)

    • BurbWatcher, at least Trump’s stimulus package is finalised (or nearly finalised), and if you wait until next week, you won’t have to worry about fund managers manipulation of the market (end of the quarter window dressing).

    • ASX futures up 8%??

      Darth Sidious thinks the bottom is in

      So, GEAR or BBOZ today I suppose

      Or like Dom says, just sit and watch

      I took a very small position in BBUS yesterday.
      Maybe the same again in BBOZ today.
      *very, very small

      • Swampy, you are a genius.
        Do you still feel bad about selling out of BBOZ on Thursday?

        • I can’t decide if you are pulling my leg, as I am far, far from being a genius.

          No, I don’t.

          • Swampy, I’m not pulling your leg.
            I think that I can recall that you had some regret selling BBOZ .
            I commented that I thought you might be the smart one, as I was concerned about Trump’s looming stimulus package and the end of the quarter window dressing by fund managers.
            A few members had the opposite view.
            Whatever price you sold BBOZ on Thursday, I would assume the price would open much lower today.

          • Materially lower.

            But I took a small stake in BBUS yday – I think the US is in trouble – but I will probably be (badly) wrong.

            Play money, as always

      • Just sit and watch is a sensible strategy.

        If you do not have any debt then you can afford to take a punt? I couldn’t resist at these valuations. Talk about an offer one cannot refuse.

  13. “So what if we lose 300 million people,” Mao replied to Khrushchev. “Our women will make it up in a generation……”

  14. Given the state of USA’s health system, I wonder how many will change their minds about a universal healthcare system after this.. saw a story that someone went through hospital there and wound up with a bill in the $thousands

    • THAT is the reason the US will probably run into trouble. However not sure a universal health care system will solve their problems. To be rational the UK has the NHS. They are in a whole mess lf more trouble than the US.
      About a year ago my grand-daughter, in Sydney, had a badly fractured thumb. She sat in the hospital for two days before she got to see anyone. Then is was come back after the weekend, on Tuesday, to get any treatment for it. So how is this going to work?
      That said, I have been tested and I cannot help but express gratitude to the care and attention I have received here.

  15. This virus cares not for the economy or Trump or lack of logic or preparation for it. It just does what it does best. Re+opening the economy is a terrible idea. So I guess Trump will go with it.

  16. I’m also now thinking of India. Modi has ordered stay at home. How does such a chaotic and densely populated country not face a complete humanitarian disaster ? This thing appears incredibly contagious. How does social distancing work there? Wow, thats a scary thought….

    • Indonesia is not looking good either.

      I am depply concerned about places like India and Indo, where people choose between the their health and utter poverty.

      I’ve already seen videos of people in Indonesia dying in the streets…

      • Can we get passers by to hold up current newspapers so we can tell the difference between dead people on the street before and during the virus?

    • We just have to get used to the spectre of constant death for the next couple years.

      The world failed to contain the virus. We’re just delaying the inevitable with these shutdowns.

  17. The western world had their chance to emulate the response of Taiwan and South Korea but blew it. Blood of millions on the hands of western governments now.

    At this point I think herd immunity is worth the punt for the US.

    If you don’t want to get infected you lock yourself down for the next 3-6 months.

    It’s their only chance to maintain superpower status.

    Total lockdowns won’t work longer than one month especially in the US where there is no safety net.

    Bellies will start growling in a few weeks. People will simply decide to reopen small businesses, people will look for any work they can get no matter the virus risks.

    People will take their chances with the virus because it’s worse to be hungry than a 0.4% chance of dying.

    There are worse things than dying and that’s being hungry and homeless.