ASX bath of blood runneth over again

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The Australian dollar is still trading below 60 cents:

Bonds are bid after the opening yield spike:

XJO is off a breezy 4%:

As Big Iron sells:

Big Oil has been annihilated:

Big Gold is hanging in. It’s now buy the dip:

Big Banks are…I’m out of adjectives?:

Big Realty is starting to burn:

More bloodshed ahead.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


    • this will fix it…

      Credit extended to primary dealers under facility may be collateralized by a broad range of investment-grade debt securities, including commercial paper and municipal bonds, and a broad range of equity securities.

      This means that as of this moment, equities – which are worth zero in a worst case scenario – are eligible collateral for Fed liquidity.

      dealers can now buy stocks at what are still massively overinflated valuations thanks to trillions in central bank liquidity, knowing they can then turn around and pledge them to the Fed at a collateral value that is determined after several rounds of single malt between the fund and some NY Mellon back-office lackey who will write down pretty much anything in exchange for a free dinner, and even if the stocks crashes the Fed will still assign whatever value BNY Mellon decides it is “worth”, basically giving the dealers not only a costless purchase but also a free put option!


        • If you watch anything today, this is it. From Real Vision


          Imagine being furnished with generational wealth under one condition – you must choose only one asset allocation for your portfolio and stick with it for 100 years. Where would you even start? Chris Cole, CIO and founder of Artemis Capital Management, returns to Real Vision to answer that very question. He sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence to discuss the optimal portfolio construction for the long run, regardless of market condition. With uncertainty everywhere despite all-highs in the market, Cole discusses how to navigate Charlie Munger’s “death of the efficient frontier.” He explains the allegory of the Hawk and Serpent and breaks down the construction of his 100-year portfolio. Cole and Booth provide viewers with the tools to traverse the “incremental death of alpha,” and markets that are increasingly subject to the amplified volatility of increasingly passive investments.

  1. What is big realty going to do re: listings
    We just signed (with open eyes) with McGrath – pay marketing up front, centralised everything, systemised everything, no negotiation on the marketing upfront (I like the flexi comms though), world apart from our local Elders and Hookers.

    Think Mcgrath might find they need to rethink their marketing up front etc – then again I do have to say their marketing is a cut above others.

        • innocent bystander

          in a rising market marketing costs can be neg’d to be on successful sale only.
          in this market they want everything they can get, sale or no sale.

      • Reverse Transcriptase

        Indeed. That has always been the deal. Why do you think DomainFax has been doing the bidding of RE agents since, well … Federation, by censoring every negative sentiment (including valid failed auction results) ????

    • I have had three entirely unconnected real estate agents call me this morning to ask me if I am still in the market for a house.

      This is unprecedented. Real estate agents actually doing work! And I presume open homes will cease shortly so they need to chase leads one by one.

      Of course they all say the market is fine and very robust.

      If I was a seller I would want to rush.

      • Fortunately, we are able to pull the pin if needed.

        Opens: we will have sanitiser (because I am un-Australian and hoarded weeks ago, even though somehere thought that was paranoid!) and he’ll tell people to minimise touching door handles etc. We have isopropyl (also hoarded weeks ago by this unStrayan legizen) we can run around and cover off door handles etc

        Rural area anyway so not MelSyd #s. Usually 2-4 parties.

        Can also nick off from property for 1-2 hrs and let him do a run of privates to minimise risk/assuage concern

        Will report back. Not as exciting as Gavin’s odyssey

      • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

        3 different agents called me last werk. Im not in the market just got on their database some time in the past from stickybeaking an open home. Signs of tough times.

  2. What about Afterpay? Surely they are about to go tits up. 85% of their receivables would come from the younger generation in casual work, about to bite it. Surely defaults would be skyrocketing. Share price has been absolutely hammered, still room to fall further. Enjoying that one.

  3. All the so called fintechs r in big doo doo. In realty nearly all are simply junk consumer credit, with the decision on whether to lend in the hands of algorithms that have not seen a recession, let alone a depression. Their customer base, as chgsyd wrote, is wildly disproportionately those in the gig economy, where unemployment will bite hardest. I expect very few fintechs to be with us by Christmas

    • I wonder if Macquarie has already backed the truck up to low cost Gov guaranteed funding so they can make out like bandits chasing deals around the world.
      Just like they did after the GFC. They epitomise the worst part of banking.

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