The Aussie dollar is still firm this morning after a brief hiccup:
The bond bid is back bigly:
XJO is trying hard not to fall:
Big Iron is mostly off
Big Gas should be at new lows because oil is:
Big Gold yawn:
Big Banks are trying:
Big Realty too:
Because you can’t talk down zero real estate listings.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)
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Macro Afternoon
A solid start to risk taking here in Asia
Macro Morning
By Chris Becker Friday night saw a
Macro Afternoon
A somewhat mixed day here in Asia with
Premier whips landlords
Six weeks ago, billionaire Solomon Lew told
How is the market positive..? Fundamentals will be on the canvass for first qtr results. COVID numbers are only going north in Oz. US is in dire situation, along with Europe. ASX should have a 3 handle.
Agreed. Why hold equities?
I think it’s mainly traders playing.
Superfunds?What are they doing as cash comes into their coffers?
Yep. They are still trying to figure out what the result of stimulus and QE will be. They have forgotten that the virus doesn’t care. The actual really real bad news has not hit yet.
I don’t just mean deaths continuing to increase – I’m not sure traders even notice or care! So let’s talk their language. I mean big companies going bankrupt. Big defaults on corporate bonds. It’s coming and it ain’t priced.
Unless the RBA just buys it all. Which they could well do.
Where else does trillions of new broad money go ?
Buying distressed corporate bonds at full value?
And what does the former holder of the sold bonds do with his new money ?
Front-run even more distressed bonds.
Markets are looking into the future on this and the future says this is bad but isn’t the plague, yet, we are getting money printing as though it is the plague. So let’s put this money into assets, like always. This is why they say markets go up 6 months before the recovery happens, because mass money printing without the end of the world means inflation.
Another possibility: having factored in old new headlines, there is no new, really bad, news headlines, so UP equities go!
They really do have a tendency to go up, unless they have a new reason to go down – right?
From Ross McEwan at NAB “While it is hard to predict exactly how sharp the decline will be, it is clear we are heading towards a deep recession.”
ASX up.
Another quote:
“In the last five days NAB took more calls than we would normally take in an entire year from customers seeking financial support to stay afloat.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/financial-services/quick-250k-loans-part-of-our-response-to-crisis/news-story/5050760e01198c164d2b090b8e1e3967
And they’re the lightweights.
As at last Friday the number of customers asking for mortgage pause;
WBC – 44,000
CBA – 27,000
ANZ – 25,000
NAB – 14,500 (both mortgage and business)
Nasty stuff.
If DLS is right about oil, even if only half right, high yield spreads are going to blow out and that normally hits stonks.
Unless central banks have a magic wand this could get much worse.
Is there something about WBC’s book that makes the numbers look like that? Hmmmm, I wonder
Sh!ts getting more real…….. though not sure why botox work is even still going on. Via SMH
No more botox or fillers from midnight
By Kate Aubusson
The Cosmetic Physicians College of Australasia has directed its members to stop administering all anti-wrinkle injections from midnight tonight to reduce the risk of spreading coronavirus.
The college warned that some members of the public might seek out botox injections or dermal fillers from “back yarders” – non-medical practitioners – in unsafe circumstances.
“Such conduct represents a significant health hazard in any circumstance.,” the CPCA said. “This is now particularly accentuated during the course of this highly contagious pandemic.
On a good note, perhaps we will see less of the horrendous “duck-bill” look that some men and woman think looks gorgeous
By the end of the week the All ords will be close to having a 3 in front of it.
From a market perspective, this is the plague. Just traders playing with each other at the moment each trying to NOT be the most Effed
Saving this comment for posterity and future use
Excellent. I’ve saved all your comments for the same reason.
You are no more than a troll.
lol
im a troll
we’re going to be at a 5 handle in a few minutes, in case you haven’t been looking
I’ve taken my profits for now
Now up 2%!
2.6% now…. ASX is loving things.
Lol. Markets can see the world will pretty much be over this doomsday narrative in a couple of months and with all the stimulus that has been thrown around and still coming,the lows of this cycle are well and truly in. Please save this comment and compare against goldstandard’s above. One of us will look like a tool and I don’t think it’s gonna be me!
ASX just rabidly grinding higher………. Are we getting good news stories throughout the day? Up 4.3% …. exuberant!
Big bids after 4pm…. 7% up wtf …….. it’s all good …. buy buy buy……meanwhile commodities getting booted….. it’s all about healthcare and banks.
I know, I thought I got a good fill on my latest BEAR order at a few minutes to the close and then whoomp, up a few more points!
Its all because of the $130 billion new round of stimulus…because that alone will save the economy apparently.
You can see this will repeat again in the coming days. Insiders are selling to rubes. This happens in every major downturn that’s only half way done…
I am waiting for the next leg of the roller coaster.