UBS downgrades Aussie GDP

Via the excellent George Tharenou at UBS:

Q4 retail volumes bounce 0.5% (0.4% y/y), but reflects weak price pressure

Retail volumes in Q4-19 bounced 0.5% q/q (UBS 0.2%, mkt: 0.3%, pre: -0.1%). But, this reflects slower than expected prices (0.4%), indicating weaker inflation pressure than CPI. Indeed, retail volumes remain poor at 0.4% y/y (after -0.3%). Dec trade surplus eases to $5.2bn; Q4 net exports add only slightly to GDP
The Dec-19 trade surplus eased to a still high $5.2bn (UBS: $6.5bn, mkt: $5.5bn, pre: $5.5bn). Export values rose (1.4% m/m, 8.3% y/y), but imports rebounded (2.4%, 5.8%). Net exports volumes are likely to contribute only slightly to Q4 real GDP.

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