UBS downgrades Aussie GDP

Via the excellent George Tharenou at UBS:

Q4 retail volumes bounce 0.5% (0.4% y/y), but reflects weak price pressure

Retail volumes in Q4-19 bounced 0.5% q/q (UBS 0.2%, mkt: 0.3%, pre: -0.1%). But, this reflects slower than expected prices (0.4%), indicating weaker inflation pressure than CPI. Indeed, retail volumes remain poor at 0.4% y/y (after -0.3%). Dec trade surplus eases to $5.2bn; Q4 net exports add only slightly to GDP
The Dec-19 trade surplus eased to a still high $5.2bn (UBS: $6.5bn, mkt: $5.5bn, pre: $5.5bn). Export values rose (1.4% m/m, 8.3% y/y), but imports rebounded (2.4%, 5.8%). Net exports volumes are likely to contribute only slightly to Q4 real GDP.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.