From the Loon:
International Economic Conditions
Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting the International Monetary Fund’s forecast for global growth to pick up in 2020 and 2021. The easing in trade tensions between the United States and China, and ongoing stimulus delivered by central banks, had supported a modest improvement in the growth outlook for a number of economies. Global manufacturing and trade indicators, notably export orders, had continued to show signs of stabilising in late 2019. Inflation had remained low and below most central banks’ targets. Members also discussed the coronavirus outbreak, which was a new source of uncertainty regarding the global outlook.
In China, a range of activity indicators had picked up in the December quarter, which suggested that targeted fiscal and monetary easing had been working to stabilise economic conditions. In east Asia, the growth outlook had been supported by signs of a turnaround in the global electronics cycle and more stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies in some economies in the region. On the other hand, the outlook for output growth in India had been revised lower given the broad-based slowing in economic activity there.
