Magellan: There is no viruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu……..

Nobody can take away from the astonishing success of Hamish Douglass. But we all make mistakes and this was a doozy last weekend, at the AFR:

Magellan’s house view is that there is an 80 per cent probability rates stay low for the rest of this cycle, and central banks will be prepared to let inflation run a bit before considering rate hikes.

“It’s very hard to get rates off the floor,” he says. “Because if we try and get off the floor where we are at the moment, we know it’s going to have major effects on asset price and ultimately economic effects.”

“Markets actually look fairly valued in the current interest rate environment. And if there are further cuts, markets have got further to run.

Because this:

The founder of Magellan Financial Group, who spoke to AFR Weekend before he took the stage in front of 2500 Magellan investors at an event in Melbourne, said he had been impressed with the Chinese government’s response to the crisis.

“Could you imagine if something like this actually broke out in the United States?” Douglass said.

“I wouldn’t call this the black swan pandemic event. But at some stage in our lifetime, we are going to have a black swan pandemic, or a black swan cyber or a terrorist event in the world that has incredibly profound economic and social consequences.”

There is no viruuuuuuuuuuuuu…………..

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. Sorry to hijack but I’ve been wondering, and MB has both a broad range of experts and some influence.

    Idea: possible usage of high-rise carparks as rapidly converted isolation wards.

    The way I figure it, if we have to pull a China and build mega hospitals in a week, we’re screwed.
    But if we do some planning now, one or more high-rise car-parks could be rapidly converted.
    The structure is good, so that’s solved. The structure is mostly open and semi-blank slate, so routing infrastructure won’t be too hard.
    The problem would be narrowed down to: water, toilets, oxygen, walls, HVAC, HEPA.

    It wouldn’t be elegant, but what’s the thoughts here?
    Worth passing on to the experts for preliminary consideration?

      • Can see that being doable for the people who are fine but isolated.

        Not so much for those who need oxygen and medics nearby at all times.

      • I think the plan is to ignore the threat, have the football games anyway, everybody gets infected, then keep them in the stadium until they die or get better, its the circle of life. Well life here anyway.

    • If we needed to build a hospital in a hurry it would take 2yrs to get the planning permission and 3 to do the environmental impact assessment.

    • Quaint idea. Better would be to utilise the spare capacity in the tonnes of earth moving equipment for mass graves.

      • There’s plenty of grass on the roof of parliament house. A mass grave above the policitians may be just the thing to make them behave less like a pack of cvnts.

        • Mine too. We don’t do planning.

          Planning is what dirty communists do. We rely on the invisible hand (and also magic sky-friend).

    • Interesting but I know both directly and indirectly buckets of people you are sick with a sore throat and flu like symptoms, a lot of people have taken time of work, it’s obviously rifling it’s way around the country as we speak… don’t test there’s no problem and it’s well before are flu season.

      Might end up being a none starter for a lot of people, unfortunately people over 60 with existing problems, and there will be a number are at greater risk as we know.

    • Why convert car parks or toxify stadiums (this will drive away future footy crowds after C virA$$ wreaks Armageddon) when we have surplus of empty high rise. For eg Opal Tower NSW & Dockland Melbs

    • How do you keep people warm in the middle of winter?

      If SHTF there will be plenty of vacant shopping centres and office buildings to choose from.

  2. heard interesting piece on LNL yesterday saying lower risk of a “black swan” cyber event – planes taken down, power/water shut down etc etc – as low level cyber is happening every single day (state and private actors)

  3. The Iranian HEALTH Minister has it …

    and now the Iranian Vice President ..

    You couldn’t make this up. I can think of a whole heap of people here I’d like to see contract it (in Canberra, mainly but a few of the property parasites too).

    • Iranian Ambassador to the Vatican just died from it. Let’s be honest, it is tearing through Iran at present.

      Keeping the mosques open was a big no no. When virulent disease meets cultural practice that is effectively designed for disease transmission. Churches, sporting events, schools etc should be banned immediately. Instead Iran encourages religious fervor in these challenging times. Kneel down in close proximity to a room full of men and kiss that ground…. yikes!

    • The real test for Scummo from marketing will be how many forced handshakes he performs in the next few months.

  4. I reckon Hamish Douglass is right on this one.

    Something serious is very much going down. But its not what is seems like. The likelihood that this all starts in China (big enemy of US state, friend of US deep state), then hits Korea (big US deep state presence, their intel agency is called the KCIA for dogs sake), then Iran (good evidence Iran’s mullahs are backed by US deep state) and Italy (the US deep states human trafficking hub in western Europe).

    Yeah. Something is up. Now clearly, much is sitting in the conspiracy basket. But here is the thing about conspiracy theories, (a) they are almost always correct about things not adding up, (b) they are almost always wrong about what is actually going down.

    Yeah – my suspicion is Hamish Douglass knows stuff from people he trusts, but no hard evidence, so cannot come out and say what he suspects.

    • Resident Evil…The T Virus…. nutters would say truth in plain sight. Either way it’s a fear spreading (rocky) Horror Show for global masses. Masking (no pun intended) economic roadbumps for global & local economies alike $$

      • All I can tell you is Hamish Douglass and the boys at Magellan are not stupid. Once interviewed with a few PM’s there, it was like an execution position from memory.

        Did not work out as they wanted a buy side bloke, but the entire interview the conversation was about a blog Victor Shih was running (this is years ago). It was pretty close to fringe blog at the time, but had solid insight into the inner workings of the CCP. The blog was a fave of the PMs there, and this was before Magellan got big (at their old office, not current location).

        Just saying, these guys have a pretty solid pulse on what is going on, in so far as someone outside military intelligence does anyway.

    • I think the Iran bit is where it all falls down – the Iranians are good allies of both the Ruskies and the Chinese, unless I’m missing something. If that’s all fake then they’ve done a great job of faking it.

  5. David, you seem to have completely lost the plot or is this meant to be tongue in cheek. Your lightweight crack pales compared to the deep research and carefully thought through position of the Magellan team.

    • “pales compared to the deep research and carefully thought through position of the Magellan team”

      Good one. You know that said the same thing about Long Term Capital Management. Geniuses the lot of them.

    • Denise, Magellan are just another common garden mutual fund manager that will get rolled in a bear market. Unless managers have a mandate to go to 100% cash then forget about it. Even then, would they dare? They are not as sophisticated as you (and they) like to think.

  6. Gold miners are down although gold prices (and ETF) are up.

    Wonder if market is factoring in future logistic / operational issues for miners to get stuff out of the ground, while stuff already in vaults is stable.

    • thinking same. this is going on for 2 days now. sooner or later governments world over will have to announce stimulus to boost economic activity – once they work out how to control the virus. This is when gold will start its big move.

    • Don’t over think it, this is perfectly normal — gold mining stocks ran up with the broader market and are trading back down with the same. If you haven’t taken profits at this point and you have spare cash, then prepare to buy back in over the next couple of months. Just don’t catch a falling knife. Stand back and watch the spectacle – go surfing. Whatever.