Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

The rumblings of fear are being heard across equity markets here in Asia with more safe haven buying in gold and bonds pushing stocks down across the region. Offshore Yuan is trading another handle higher at over 7.04 while the Aussie dollar has been pummeled to an 11 year low and briefly touched the 65 level against USD.

The Shanghai Composite is the odd one out, currently up 0.5% to 3044 points while the Hang Seng Index is down 0.7% to 27408 points as it struggles to hold on to short term support:

Japanese share markets are not lifting in line with the selloff in Yen, with the Nikkei 225 down to 23468 points. The USDJPY pair is steadying right on the 112 handle, capping off a big week, but looks extremely overextended here:

The ASX200 is currently 0.25% lower at 7142 points, still holding on above the 7100 barrier. The Australian dollar continues its big falls, now dicing with the 66 handle as it produces an eleven year low :

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are falling alongside the dour mood here in Asia, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price testing ATR support again at the 3360 point level that must hold or the bearish rising wedge pattern will be fulfilled:

The economic calendar finsihes the week with a slew of preliminary PMI data across Europe, then the actual European CPI print for Janaury, then another lot of PMI data from the ‘States. Have a good weekend!

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Comments

  1. “The Shanghai Composite is the odd one out, currently up 0.5%”

    Ah, so that’s what they mean by ‘command economy’.

  2. Migration vs the economy. Can we avoid a recession? Can’t believe how vibrant things are becoming, the pace is extraordinary.

  3. Greens leader Adam Bandt has called for school fees to be scrapped for public schools as families face costs of up to $5000 a year for ‘free’ education.

    books, stationery, uniforms, school camps – these are all little costs that all add up.

    Mr Bandt said he saw no reason why all these costs should not be covered by the federal government, given that it spends $12.6 billion on private schools and just $8.3 billion on public schools that teach two out of every three students.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/02/20/greens-adam-bandt-school-fees/

    Much better than his “green new deal” (import more vibrants)

    • What about the vibrant primary school ‘stoodents’ and their marvelous parents, carers and otherwise extended family?

      • As much as I am against insane immigration levels and barriers to entry for various groups of migrants to public services, education should be provided to all children, especially primary and middle. I see an argument towards pay-to-play scheme for years 11-12, when the students can get into vocational, etc. But potentially withholding education from children, whose parents cannot pay for it because they are migrants and don’t have a job is a punishment of the children for the sins of the adults.

        • This may come as a surprise to you but student visas are now awarded for primary school students too… how vibrant is that?

        • State Government poised to charge parents on 457 visas up to $6100 per child for public education.

          I completely agree with this law. Charge them for the overcrowding they cause.

    • I don’t see how people blow $5k on public education — is that over the entire school career? We chip in a bit here and there but I don’t imagine it comes to $5k. $200 a year – maybe $350 with stationery.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Great initative. The “welcome to country” is divisive and political and in many cases offensive. Was it last year or the one before that I listened to a guy state on the morning of the Sydney Cricket Test at the SCG that I was a guest in the country. This at one of the most sacred gathering places in modern Australian culture, the SCG in January, where all Australians are welcome to attend and feel included and this blokes tries to tells me Im a guest in his land. If I dont belong at the SCG test, I dont belong anywhere. I switched the TV off and never watched a moment of that Test. Lots of examples like this.

        • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

          I gave an example above, you could offer more on your views. Nevertheless to elaborate, Australia has to find a common culture and identity to thrive and for all citizens to feel they belong so we can be strong and cohensive as a society, not just exist as an economic zone and be exposed to continued breakdown of society and community. One of the enemies of a cohensive society is for tribalism between ethnic groups with no common values or care for each other and even worse, is for a particular group saying we were here first, no one else is legitimate or belongs. When someone stands up in public and tells you that you’re just a guest i.e. not a citizen in your own country then that’s offensive. When the media promotes this stuff, then its dangerous. If indigenous people want reconciliation then reconcile, but everything I see publicly is political statements seeking special priveleges and rights and separate identity.

          • Welcome to country doesn’t say you’re a guest nor that you’re not a citizen (irony alert given the Constitution and its treatment of First Nation people). It recognises the first inhabitants here, as well as the rest.

            I don’t suffer white guilt, work in an area with a strong, positive Aboriginal culture, and I personally have no issue with WTC nor acknowledgements.

            I get what you’re saying but I think WTC is the least of our issues, TBH

  4. Great news everyone! The Sustainable Australia Party has done extensive research into their absolutely abysmal performances since they decided to drop their focus from lowering immigration.

    After blaming the usual suspects for why nobody votes for them (mass media, evil lefties etc) they have decided to rebrand and are now NIMBY and anti-corruption. Good grief could they be any more useless? Lower Immigration Now!

    • fascinating Col – thanks for posting. Be great to see how long before graphene widely used for general applications. Might even make me rethink electric cars …..

      • oh man.. today I read the funniest comments overall. Here and at the Scomo letting Chinese students in article.

        anyway the poo sank under 66c right now.

      • Nah, Gav’s on the case for us selling out of USD and buying a house. He must have been the last capitulating bear! 😀

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          You know, we’re really no better than the Chinamens. Here we are happy to sacrifice a popular member of this socially hampered outfit for financial gain.

          Betcha the dishevelled marsupial would have something to say about that.

        • I have been trying to capitulate for five months now, it’s just the houses are all sh!t. Come on you sunspots!

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Honestly. You and Gav… does no one else listen to bc?

            Go away sunspots is more like it… minimum solar activity brings on the apocalypse. Allegedly. Or am I misreading your desired outcome here?

          • I hadn’t realised it was so scientific 😉 “Sunspots” is just shorthand for “apocalypse bizarrely yet irresistibly correlated with something to do with the sun”.

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Who else is starting to get the feeling that something just doesn’t add up about this virus thingy?! I’ve consumed relations acid and it’s really farkn with my interpretations on this issue. There’s an evil presence for sure, quite possibly one of the horsemen!

  6. Japan about to hit century, seating at 97 infections. If Japan and South Korea start to shut down it’s all over in a week. Even though I feel tonight’s the night. Looking at gold, aud and base metals..

    • In unbelievable news, when I was a kid I was slightly nerdy and made both those models, and the ME109 in desert camouflage, plus multiple Panzers etc etc.

      Then I grew up and discovered alcohol, and from that point everything was different. In no way am I a shutin nerd now.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Spitfires, Tigermoths and P51s.

      No nerds here though. Never built any land-based rubbish. All paper and balsawood too. None of this glue some plastic bits together rubbish some por chunts fell into.

      • blacktwin997MEMBER

        Huh, let us know when you’ve constructed a Spitfire using only human skulls and fingernail clippings.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Pfft!!!,,,,only good for 480 km/h
          I actually had a dorky model of this plane as a kid. (With Australian markings)

          https://youtu.be/EPsujZ6994g

          Double row 18 cylinders, good for over 700km/h (faster in a dive)
          One of my 3 favourite single engined warbirds.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawker_Sea_Fury

          The type was operated by two frontline squadrons of the Royal Australian Navy, 805 Squadron and 808 Squadron; a third squadron that flew the Sea Fury, 850 Squadron, was also briefly active. Two Australian aircraft carriers, HMAS Sydney and HMAS Vengeance, employed Sea Furies in their air wings. The Sea Fury was used by Australia during the Korean War, flying from carriers based along the Korean coast in support of friendly ground forces. The Sea Fury would be operated by Australian forces between 1948 and 1962.”

          • You win tonight’s geek war.
            BTW, I agree the Sea Fury was the coolest flying machine ever. The modified versions still flown at Reno are occasionally the fastest piston powered aircraft on the planet (they take turns with a P-51)

          • Interestingly enough the P-47 Jug was responsible for more damage to the enemy than any other fighter, but sex sells, ask Rusa.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            It was a weighty warbird at twice the weight of a spitfire.
            But it could take a Shyte load of hits and had 8 X .50 calibre machine guns!
            Its one of my other favorites.

            The Pratt & Whitney R-2800 Double Wasp radials were a beautiful engines and helped to make the Hellcats and Vought F4U Corsairs equally formidable.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_P-47_Thunderbolt

            I just cant get that excited about inline and V configuration aircraft engines.

            How much of a masterpiece were thise Wright R-3350 Duplex-Cyclone engins used in the B29s

            55L displacement with up to 3700hp each!
            Designed in the 40s!

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wright_R-3350_Duplex-Cyclone

          • Hey, Ermo, I like the story of the Beaufighter. We apparently built heaps of em. Do you know if there is one flying in Australia?

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Peter, There’s been one under restoration for a while but when she gets in the air who knows.

          • I have read that Australia had the 5th largest airforce in the world at the end of WW2
            Coming of a base of 0 in 1939.
            Perhaps there is a lesson in that.

          • Grandfather from tallangatta flew spitfires pacific theatre
            Trying to remember the other ones I think he had a few runs in hurricanes and obviously wirraways

            He said whatever they had before the spitfires were useless against the zeros but once the spitfires came

            Heady times and some gnarly stories

  7. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Like, in all of human existence, how cool would it be if we are the ones living in actual end times?!

  8. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I was just having relations with a bought Chinamen lady who had a major coughing fit and not from me. Should I be concerned or should I be confident in my superior genetic makeup?

  9. Jevons ghostMEMBER

    Calling Ermo et al. Cessnock air show 2020.
    Should be good value for hairflix types. Plenty of WW2 stuff – and more! Wear your genuine synthetic Sidcot so Reusa can pick you out/up/whatever.