Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

It’s all engines ahead for risk as Chinese shares breakout, pushed along by a higher Aussie dollar and lower Yen as risk appetite comes back again here in Asia. Other safe havens like gold and Bitcoin are slipping while Japanese markets are closed for yet another holiday.

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.5% after the long lunch break with the PBOC Yuan fix not upsetting much, currently at 2905 points while the Hang Seng Index is the biggest mover, up 1.3% to 27591 points. Price held above the low moving average level at 27000 points and is now above the high moving average, pointing to a nice swing trade that will find resistance at 28000 points proper:

Another holiday in Japan means no move in Japanese shares but light trading in Yen is seeing itself against both USD and AUD, with the former pair breaking out slightly on the four hourly chart, almost hitting the 110 handle:

The ASX200 had a solid session as expected, lifting some 0.6% to 7055 points, despite a higher Australian dollar that continues to bounce off oversold levels and again breaches the 67 handle – but for how long:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up at least 0.5% with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a new record high is likely on the cards again tonight as all the other risk assets align to push it to the moon! Price has cleared above resistance and last week’s high at the 3340 point level, so here we go again:

The economic calendar is Euro focused, no wait – British focused and then continental Europe focused tonight – with a slew of British releases including 4Q GDP and industrial production, then two speeches from ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Mark Carney.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. China in lockdown, Sth Korea advising no travel to other major Asian countries, we’re on the brink of a pandemic, over a thousand deaths (who predicted this 8 weeks ago?) but, naturally, equities through roof!

    • Yeah. There might be people out there with an appetite for that sort of risk, but not me. I may end up bemoaning the potential gains that I didn’t make, but there’s a very good chance I could be giving thanks for a bullet dodged.

    • Australias Chief medical office has some words for this website in particular – the fear mongering is so over the top its absurd.

      From the UN / WHO – 80% of all cases present as mild cold. 15% as pneumonia. 3-4% require hospitalization, 1% intensive care.

      You are in FAR more danger from the Flu.

      The fatality rate so far is less than 2% – of those who have died well over 80% have been the old (over 60) – and almost all of them pre-existing conditions such as heart, lung cardiovascular conditions – in other words really sick people.

      For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

      The mortality rate for the Flu – is FAR higher. You have a 50% chance of dying from a broken hip after the age of 60 – literally 80 times more dangerous, a broken hip, than Coronavirus.

      The only possible argument people have had for the continued hysteria and fear mongering is that there is a poor reference between the time of infection and casualty rates (the recorded rates are by inference from a time when far less people were infected).

      The WHO announcement presents the Coronavirus as something which has been presenting as a common cold for many months and most likely we only became aware of it when someone actually died. Those infected could already be in the millions – therefore the death rate is possibly the lowest of almost any communicable illness.

      But yeah – pandemic. Boogie man – all that. Orrientalism / Occidentalism.

      • Not one bit interested in any racial angle. Obviously many using the virus to peddle racist filth tho.

        But there’s a 1 in 50 chance you die if you’re infected.

        You like those odds?

        I don’t.

        WHO, all of Asia, Europe and US taking drastic (never before seen in my lifetime) action against the spread of this virus.

        Nothing to see here you’re saying?


        • Read my post.

          The Sars and MERS outbreaks were respectively 5-10 times worse. The odds of you dying of the virus under the age of 60 are almost ZERO.

          Seriously – more people die of the flu – by a factor of several hundred thousand – than this virus.


          • So why isn’t the world (incl. the WHO) treating this virus like it’s less dangerous than the seasonal flu?


          • Harry …..could you please desist with these unsupported lies regarding the severity of the Coronavirus?

          • The Chinese doctor silenced for warning about it, who later died, was 34. Don’t want those odds, no matter how good they say they are

        • Pretty sure his China import business is suffering…. Everything he says is downplaying it and calling us all racists for not wanting to continue to let hundreds of thousands of potential spreaders into the country. The usual “it’s no worse than the flu” crap that business leaders sprout because they fear profits and their bonuses disappearing.

        • I am sure he knows. Essential for paid liars to know the truth to then produce lies flavoured with enough veneer of truth that they might be believed. The odd thing is that China has put in firm controls on movement internally but then complains when others externally mirror those controls beyond her borders. He needs to remember that the enemy is the virus. The front line medical staff in Hubei in particular are heroes, just like our firefighters.

      • Ah yes! I remember my grandfather caught a broken hip from someone he sat next to in a train once!!

      • Literally 1 min ago:

        “With 99% of 2019 nCoV cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world”-
        @DrTedros WHO

        It’s not like the flu, champ.

      • Just now:

        “Publications, patents and profits are not what matters most now.

        What matters most is stopping the #2019nCoV outbreak, and saving lives.

        With your support, that is what we can do together”-
        @DrTedros -WHO

        …. said nobody, ever, about the seasonal flu.

      • Harry Jones. What is your vested interest here? You are persistent, vocal and you distort or misquote statistics to support your argument again and again. If it wasn’t so persistent I could put it down to innocent incompetence with statistical method. But you don’t let up. Wrong wrong and wrong again.

        I am not a coronavirus alarmist. I really don’t know yet what it’s going to end up being. But you are fundamentally incorrect in your grasp of possibilities and probabilities to go on like you do. Vested interests is the most likely explanation.

        I think you are Harry Triguboff

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          It’s Leo sayer from a month ago, it will have a new name next week, paid chyna united front shill, probably lowest form of life imaginable, let’s say equal to an Australian RE agent

      • So SARS and MERS are worse because of the fatality rate. But that doesn’t apply to nCov having a much higher fatality rate than the seasonal flu?

        How many countries were shut down last year due to the seasonal flu?

      • Anybody who invokes racism in an argument is a grub and should be dismissed immediately.

        Invoking racism these days is the go-to refuge for all manner of liars, hustlers, thieves, charlatans and life’s failures. Not to mention the intellectual pygmies that infest the ‘progressive’ Left.

      • Todays AFR … “Wake up and consider this virus as public enemy number one,” WHO chief Tetros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters.

      • Well yes, yes they do in the early stages. The transmission rate estimated to be 2.5 creates a neat exponential curve. Now if you were questioning the recent (official figures) variations from the curve, then you would have some sort of case. Still not a good one. What we observe is confusion and an overwhelmed system. But deaths should still be on the curve for a couple more days.

    • I read an article the other day which mentioned that, despite record low unemployment in the UK, poverty was, in fact, on the rise. The author of the piece offered several reasons, the only one of any relevance being stagnant wages.

      Now then, we are told by economists and various ‘experts’ that inflation is awfully ‘low’. A set of circumstances in which unemployment is at all time lows AND poverty is on the increase pretty much proves the ‘low inflation’ claim to total bulsh*t and the complete opposite must be true.

      Honestly, anyone who swallows the claim of ‘low inflation’ is not very bright at all. Ya don’t need an economic ‘model’ to figure this out.

      • – Gold has gone up against fiat US$ by 8.5% since the year 2000
        – Fiat US$ has declined by 93% against gold since Nixon took the US$ off the gold standard in 1971
        – Aussies struggle with rising living costs and stagnant wages:
        – Why does the manipulated media and the rigged government stats. state there is no inflation?

        • Yep, although I’m very undecided as to whether this is a case of rampant mendacity on the part of the authorities or just common ignorance.

          Either way, it puzzles me immensely that in talking about the economy there is this constant obsession with inflation – managing it to a precise number (2%!) is the holy grail, it seems. I never once heard any commentator or ‘expert’ suggest that it would be nice if there were a bit of real deflation — considering that anyone on stagnant / low wages would be better off as their earnings would stretch a bit further.

          But no, it’s all about inflation and inflating the value of assets – even if the poor and asset poor are being shafted in the process. Inflating assets also, of course, creates more collateral for more loans i.e. a nice ponzi / house of cards if ever there was (which must surely be due to topple fairly soon).

          • The 2% IR targeting has been likened to Milton’s quasi gold standard back in the day, but then some did quantify it with the term “Natural” ….

  2. If I understand the situation, the biggest single group of virus victims outside China is on that cruise boat and they were all infected by one original patient.

    If that’s the actual situation from a tightly controlled and contained environment that can’t be lied about then it makes me wonder about the credibility of the infection numbers from other places in the world like India, Indonesia and Africa. And Australia.

    • I think a lot of places are not looking very hard in an attempt not to disturb the $$$$. Problems are therefore below the surface to arise later.
      the only jurisdiction looking hard is Singapore.

          • No apparently it needs 24 days because Chinese scientists now say they think the incubation period is 1-24 days not 1-14 days. So all those 14 day quarantines are ineffective. Hahaha (of the ghoulish type)

            But yeah I’m sure it’ll take 18 months for it to impact housing here in Straya cos we are bullet proof and the lucky country and are are different somehow.

        • Agreed, although for the infection to exponentiate up in a new country you might make it a few extra weeks. Very nervous about lack of cases in South and South East Asia. WHO boss saying the same kind of thing but very politely. We are getting a true read from that cruise ship and even confined to cabin we are seeing it spread. Bit of a worry.

      • It’d be a safe bet. All TPTB desperately want to avoid scaring the horses.

        In Marvin’s immortal words, Believe half of what you see son, and none of what you hear.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Excellent. Best thing they could do with their non operational Public Service cohort.

            Any of them happen to be showing symptoms of anything, or is this just common-sense finally riding in?

          • From a medical POV
            -GPs now can test for WuFlu
            -Hospitals directing non-unwell patients to special area for testing, they’re sent home to self isolate for 14 days
            -Current test takes ~24hrs to come back, unclear what the sensitivity/specificity as its developed quickly

          • TTW. QLD’s non-operational public service cohort is far larger than 1,000. While many of these are unquestionably alive it is only insomuch as they have a detectable pulse. Those without a pulse are put on indefinite stress leave, usually until retirement.

      • I find it difficult to believe too. I’m sure they aren’t massaging the numbers but if Asia and Europe are having as many community transmission cases among people who haven’t traveled to China you would imagine the same would hold true here to an extent. Perhaps some racial profiling is occurring wrt who is getting tested? Who knows. But Chinese scientists now say the incubation period is up to 24 days so maybe we just need to wait a bit.

        • Actually – Africa is doing really well at zero cases in spite of a lot of Chinese travel
          But – the first testing kits only arrived on the continent on 06-Feb-20!
          So we are miles behind with accurate stats.

          • That’s likely to be the case in Indonesia as well. They also didn’t have testing kits until a few days ago.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            I hear there’s an understanding in the academic community that the same rationale applies to why no observable IQ has been detected in Australia yet.

    • Spraying the streets with disinfectant!

      Umm… ok…

      Sounds monumentally ineffective given the virus can protect itself and reproduce safely inside … you know… people. And is mostly spread by those people. But it sounds like the kind of thing you’d do if you wanted to GIVE THE IMPRESSION you were doing everything possible.

        • Yes, I realise that. (I posted the aerosol article yesterday).

          My question is – even if spraying is effective in eliminating it from the air (which is not at all certain) – then how long is the air “safe” for, if there are people with the virus still around, and breathing nice fresh bits of virus out with every breath? Like, an hour? Two hours? Ten seconds?

          Sounds like the kind of bullsh!t you’d do to convince rubes to come out and get back to work in the factories.

          See you in 28 days!

          • See reports about cool dry air being the most favorable, recommendations of opening windows in hot or humid conditions.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Two hours. Serious.

            People are starting to post about “up to 24 days” – I blame you! LOL.

            But yeah, I’m starting to think China knows how persistent this thing COULD be, (because they made it?) and are therefore doing some wierd stuff they know people will chalk up to media-savyness, for actual good reason(s). I’d put the odds of that round 30%. If any province in lockdown stays there for more than 10 more days, make that 100%. We will know soon, either way.

    • WHO has announced that in 80% of cases the virus presents as nothing more than a common cold – therefore the reality is that there are probably already millions infected – on that note the death toll which, currently less than 2% of which 80% are over 60 and almost all of them with heart, lung cardio-vascular problems, makes it one of the most non-life threatening of any flu like disease which emerges annually every year for which we get a flu shot.

      In fact it is far less dangerous.

      Keep up the fear mongering though – suits you. Its in your DNA – not even joking, its a fact. So basically its not your fault.

  3. Arthur Schopenhauer

    If there is an outbreak in Australia and a general slow down across Asia, will it stop the Banks reverting to pre-Hayne behaviours?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I’m assuming Scummo and the Hungarian will instruct them to throw all standards out the window.

      • They already have and APRA has announced that it is no longer focusing on lending standards. The ‘system’ is acting to save itself.

    • Thinking of silver linings…most bank executives are unfit older men…a prime risk group for infection. If we’re really, really lucky the whole lot of them will catch this bug and fcuking die horribly, drowning slowly in their own foul phlegm, choking and wheezing as their eyes bug out of their swollen red faces and their tongues protrude….

      Somebody stop me…What a happy thought!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Resilience and adaptation!!

      “If China’s lockdown has not worked, there is another unpalatable truth to face: that the coronavirus might not be possible to contain. Then the world will have to switch tracks: instead of trying to contain the virus, it will have to work to mitigate its effects.”

      Scummo knew!

      • Actually it was announced today that in 80% of cases people present with mild flu symptoms (world health org) – the reality is that most people would not know they had it, and it is more than likely it has been in circulation for many months prior to the initial death.

        Basically – its one of the least dangerous Flu’s that emerges each flu season – in – like – decades.

        But yes – its from China – so set the pitchforks on fire – totally not racist.


        • Yep up to 400M Chinese quarantined/domestic travel restricted just for funzies.
          Best let your mate Xi know everything is fine and they can remove quarantines coz its the least dangerous flu – in – like – decades

        • Yeah Harry. You’re right! It’s a flu, not a Coronavirus at all! All the medical people are wrong and your CCP astroturfer talking points are super correct!

        • So it’s simultaneously super safe and harmless, and also worth locking down cities for… oh until that starts costing them money and social stability!

          If they’re suddenly saying it’s so benign, China must be pretty desperate for others to open their borders.

        • ‘Harry’, do you ever feel like you don’t belong? If so, you’re not hostage here – it’s a free world (at the moment), unlike in China, of course, where Papa Xi is watching over his subjects 24/7. I’m sure there’s a blog for you out there. Somewhere.

          And a word of advice: invoking ‘racism’ in an argument you’re losing (or in any argument, for that matter) is the act of a grub — an intellectual pygmy. Just saying.

          You sound like you’re 16yrs old and very impressionable. Most members on this blog are much older and generally don’t appreciate being ‘schooled’ by one so freshly minted as you. But there’s hope for you yet – I used to know f*ck all about anything once, and now I have a few years under my belt I know a bit more. And you will too, I’m sure.

          • Dominic,

            Harry is the ‘philosopher’ and has been hanging around MB for years. The style and tone is unmistakable.

            Harry is just the latest 2 week trial period alias.

            I just surprised the stealth death ray hypersonic missiles have not yet been deployed.

          • The giveaway is the “…it is clear you have absolutely no idea….” stuff. The “philosopher” rolled that out with similar energy.

            Whenever the topic is China it is guaranteed the philosopher will appear with a new alias every few weeks.

            For what it is worth I think there is a bit of hysteria about China and a lot of it is underserved as China is doing exactly what a smart country should do if given half a chance. No one made us give them access to western markets and freedom to deploy a stock standard mercantalist development strategy for 30 years.

            However the “philosopher” just goes over the top.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            The new name every couple of weeks has been very educational though. I’ve enjoyed the googling and learning about these things that I probably should have known.

  4. Its an unbelievable downpour here, my wife keeps looking through the window.
    I think I better let her in,
    Then Mrs just found out I replaced our bed with a trampoline.
    She hit the roof
    like a spitball.

  5. Today, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the issuance of four long-term orders authorizing the export of domestically produced liquefied natural gas (LNG) from four proposed LNG export projects

    The United States is now in its fourth consecutive year as a net exporter of natural gas, and has quickly become one of the top global exporters of LNG. To date, the United States has exported LNG to 37 countries and is on track for its export capacity to nearly double in the next 5 years.

    Moar LNG!


    Coronavirus mortality rate outside Hubei about 0.2% (close to influenza) – Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hseing Loong … VIDEO 1.30 minutes from start …

    PM Lee Hsien Loong on the 2019-nCoV situation in Singapore on 8 February 2020

    Some experts see coronavirus outbreak as a wake-up call … VIDEO… CNA

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        See, when I linked the story I was wondering why it didn’t make me angry like the koala massacre, more just depressed me in a we’re all doomed type way. Couldn’t come up with a reason beyond there were no penguins on the family farm.

        • I live 10 minutes down the road from what used to be the largest grey headed flying fox colony in the southern hemisphere. There used to be a quarter millions individuals at it’s peak, about six years ago. My sister visited at Chrissie, so I took her for a squiz. There wouldn’t be a thousand left. That really makes me sad…

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            There’s a colony of those little tigers at a golf course I occasionally have a round at. Quite like watching them while waiting for the green to clear on one of the par threes. Stink like a bastard but I find them very calming.

            This watching everything die thing is getting tedious. Scummo says they need to be resilient and adapt though so it’s probably the fault of the animals for not doing what he says.

  7. Pffft no worries just ask Harry !

    What’s that, 4 billion infected and say 40M dead?

    No worries though because seasonal flu

    • From the link:
      “Minister Cormann declined to release the report on behalf of the Coalition during a brief Senate appearance on Monday.

      ‘Disclosure of the document subject to the motion is not in the public interest, as it would reveal, and therefore harm, cabinet deliberations,’ he said.”

      I know I’m not the sharpest spork in the draw but it strikes me that having an understanding of how the government deliberates and comes to decisions is in the public’s interest. How else are we to judge their suitability to continue come the next election.

      • “How else are we to judge their suitability to continue come the next election.”

        Answer: you’re not meant to judge them … and in a few years you won’t be able to criticise them publicly either. Wait and see.

    • She puts on a good show but history suggests she’ll roll over with relatively little resistance when the chips are down.

  8. Issue is no one trusts chin a.
    And chin a data Full stop
    Without trust, what are logical normal people supposed to do?

  9. The Traveling Wilbur

    Oh, for goodness sake. Chyna does not care what Macro Biz says about NoCV. Seriously.

    Harry is more likely to be Miiig.
    Or skippy. Given the blatant comment copy and paste reposting. 😁

    • Does anyone care what anyone here says. Maybe if these comments are discovered in 1000 years time and there is no other material from this epoch then they will form a picture of the world in 2020. Not a very accurate one. Especially in regard to spelling and grammar. Apart from that it’s just a bunch of grumpy old grumps grumping it up about how the world doesn’t happen to be how they believe it should be by yelling across each other.
      It’s basically the internet version of MAFS.

      • Not quite, people on MAFS are selected from many hopeful applicants, presumably only the true car crashes get picked. People here have no quality control, as evidenced by Harry and his seasonal flu stats wrong by 100 times.

        • I could see the experts putting haroldus and jacob together. Their honeymoon destination would be Tamworth where they get a 3 hour long personalised tour of the city and surrounds by the Hon. Barnaby Joyce. Barnaby always ducking off to take phone calls from Gina. Jacob constantly hassling Barnaby about the UBI. Haroldus being the inner city latte sipping cultural marxist that he is struggling to be at one with life out of Sydney. That would make for great television.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        If these comments are discovered in a thousand years time and there’s no other material from this epoch available… that’ll be a real shame for historians.

        They’ll have missed observing the longest and largest run-up in house prices in the entirety of Australian history.

        • Blasphemer! The house prices will still be going up in 1,000 years time. Even if it all was to collapse the reverence for the holiest of holies will not break. The great oracle shall pass out house prices and no one shall question why they must continue to rise even though the gods long ago forsake the lands upon which the many temples of overhanging eaves were built.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Well yeah, but there’s been enough talk of the 1890 Melbourne debacle on these pages for them to get a hint that something big happened just 18 months before the great awakening.

          Historians will put together the hints like a paleontologist puts together dinosaur bones…the final model being a severly retarded dinosaur that they’ll say went extinct simply because it kept on running into solid objects.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Close. Right data, wrong conclusion.

            They’ll conclude that as it was clear no one wanted to buy a house, and that there was no one building houses because no one would build them if no one wanted to buy them, that all non-first Australian residents died from exposure brought on by sub-standard maintenance of the rental properties everyone else was forced to live in. Possibly escalated by NoCV.

            So banging head against where walls once were maybe?

    • Information TTW, which has held up well, over some years IMO.

      Not sure what it is your attempting convey expect your emotions about reality not conforming to some cookie cutter opinion based on the “good old days”.

    • Just spent the night at a fundraiser. Never before have I seen so many Indians; it’s like Australia has been invaded. Did they integrate, barely. Am i a racist now? I don’t know, but if crowding out is an economic theory, it’s population policy here.

  10. Just going to put it out there: old mate the philosopher is Bob Carr, or someone that works/ed in his office for a long time.

    • Far too concise and on point to be Mr. Carr. They also don’t refer to themselves enough to be an ex politician.

  11. I’m actually a little sympathetic towards the big C. There is no way that they wouldn’t have copped criticism about their handling of this. This doesn’t mean that they aren’t beyond criticism where it is due. Yet they were always going to be accused by going in too late by some, too hard by others and everything other take on it that has popped up.

  12. blindjusticeMEMBER

    False negative results from Coronavirus tests are probably simply because our bodies dont produce many antibodies for it………