The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has released dwelling start forecasts, which forecasts a modest rebound in 2021:
“The number of homes that commenced construction in Australia fell from 225,061 in 2018 to just 174,770 in 2019. This is the sharpest contraction experienced by the industry, with only the exception of the contraction caused by the introduction of the GST. The slowdown in home building is a significant reason why the national economy slowed to a stall.
“Despite this whopping contraction, we believe that the cycle had just about run its course and the overall housing market reached a turning point at the end of 2019, buoyed by interest rate cuts and house price growth.
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Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
