Deloitte: Mortgage market to lift in 2020

Last week’s ABS housing finance data revealed a booming mortgage market, with year-on-year new mortgage commitments (excluding refinancings) surging by 14.0%:

Today, Deloitte released its 2020 Australian Mortgage Report, with lenders and brokers predicting a further 2%-3% increase in mortgage settlements in 2020:

In terms of new mortgage financing, or settlements, this totalled $316 billion over 2019 (an average of $26.4 billion per calendar month). This was a reduction of 7.5% compared to the prior period in 2018. However, this overall fall in 2019 was largely a story of two halves.

In the first six months to June 2019 settlement volumes were up to 20% lower than corresponding periods in 2018.

While in the second six months of 2019, settlement volumes returned to levels that were consistent with and slightly higher than comparable months in 2018…

Lenders and brokers surveyed by Deloitte now believe mortgage settlement growth will rise between 2% and 3% in 2020:

As regular readers know, new mortgage growth is the best single predictor to dwelling prices:

Thus, further growth in mortgage volumes indicates further growth in dwelling values.

Leith van Onselen
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