Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse:
We have updated our proprietary wage inflation tracker for the latest partial indicators – and the results suggest that we should look forward to 2% annualized wage inflation in the coming quarters – well short of the RBA’s desired 2.5% annualized.
Key components of our wage tracker include:
- Male full-time equivalent employment as a share of the “active” labour force – a measure of slack in the labour market.
- Labour cost inflation, as reported in the NAB business survey.
- Enterprise Bargaining Agreement (EBA) wage claims.