Coronavirus cases still exploding in China

Latest update:

At 04:00 on February 4th, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 3887 newly confirmed cases (3156 cases in Hubei Province), and 431 new severe cases (377 cases in Hubei Province). There were an increase of 65 death cases (65 cases in Hubei Province), 262 newly cured cases (125 cases in Hubei Province), and 3,971 suspected cases (1957 cases in Hubei Province).

As of 24:00 on February 4, the National Health and Health Commission has received a total of 24,324 confirmed cases (one reduction in Hainan Province) of confirmed cases, and 3,219 of the severe cases with cumulative deaths. There were 490 cases, and 892 cases were cured and discharged (1 case each in Hainan Province and Hubei Province). There are 23260 suspected cases.

At present, a total of 252,154 close contacts have been tracked, 18,457 medical observations have been lifted that day, and 185,555 people are currently receiving medical observations.

A total of 39 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan: 18 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1 death), 10 in the Macao Special Administrative Region, and 11 in Taiwan.

Total numbers for Hubei are exploding while rest of China is simmering:

New cases may suggest rest of China is making headway but it’s too early to tell given the Wuhan explosion clearly happened earlier and much more aggressively than the offical data suggests:

Mortality rates are all over the place. If we use periods of days to try to adjust lagging deaths to new cases, Hubei death rates are terrible:

But rest of China shows the opposite picture:

Rest of world took a turn for the worse with Japan surging but nmost of those are still Chinese travellers, not local cases:

Australia slipped one place in medal tally:

In conclusion, Hubei is clearly out of control. The jury is still out on the rest of China. Rest of world is at risk. It’s still probably a nasty mortality rate.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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  1. Interesting video form doctor white a lot of detail on American case, mentions dry cough & that no upper respiratory track symptoms fur a long time but virus was in lower area
    Dr John Campbell
    published today the 5th

  2. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I’d be panicking if I was of Chinamen blood but thankfully I have the more superior northern European blood so there’s no use being a nutter about this.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        “It is well known that CD4 cells are essential to human immunity and are the direct targets of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus or HIV. HIV attaches to CD4 cells, enters and infects them. The virus then turns each infected CD4 cell into a factory creating more HIV virus until eventually all CD4 cells are destroyed. People infected with HIV lose their immunity or defense system which is like a country losing the function of its army….

        Although low white blood cell counts are common in viral infections, it is surprising that 63 percent of all infected patients and 85 percent of those admitted to the ICU had lymphopenia with lymphocyte counts <1·0 × 109/L. In a study on SARS published March 2004 by C.M. Chu et. al. in the journal Thorax, the mean lymphocyte count was often reported as normal.

        On Jan. 22, 2020, two clinical guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of Wuhan 2019-nCoV were posted on China websites. One is “Quick Guide for the Diagnosis and Treatment of New Coronavirus Pneumonia” authored by the expert group of Tongji Hospital, and the other is “Instructions for Handling 2019 New Coronavirus” from the Wuhan Union Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology. The first guideline clearly points out a “progressive lymphocyte reduction” while the second guideline highlights “the importance of monitoring the absolute value of lymphocytes.”

        So one of the recommended diagnostic tools for nCov19 is to monitor your white blood cell count… just like for AIDs, but a symptom ALLEGEDLY not found in any other Corona virus.

  3. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    This Twitter account of a Chinese Journalist is worth following:

    It is a disturbing video – allegedly shot at a crematorium. Pausing the play function I counted about 20 bodies, lined up on trollies in their sealed yellow plastic body bags… 20 bodies would amount to 5% of the total official body count… for the past 2 months…. at one location, on one day, in one shot… there are apparently 7 crematoriums in Wuhan city alone.
    Me thinks the death toll is significantly understated.

    Also apparently Chinese authorities are going around and sealing people suspected of having the virus into their apartments:

    All good though, everything is under control.

    • The party is threatening such citizen reporters with death for ‘endangering’ state security because they expose the lies.

    • PolarBearMEMBER

      Wow this is scary. Also this article on BBC is foreboding.
      A woman whose extended family is mostly infected and whose uncle died outside of a hospital because there was no bed for him. Said there’s many families like hers. It sounds like the numbers in that Lancet modeling would be closer to the true number of infections in Wuhan. It was 75000 on 24 January. With exponential growth it’s over 100,000 now and over 2000 deaths just in Wuhan. Highly transmissible and deadly.

    • I saw a similar video about a week ago when the fatalities were supposed to be around 200. This bloke went to a hospital and made a recording on his phone. I think there were 5 bodies in bags in a truck outside, and 3 more inside, including one old guy who had just died in a gurney with his son wailing by his bed. The number of dead was definitely 8. So just walk into a hospital at random and see 4% of all reported fatalities just like that, with 5 of them in an untidy pile in the back of a truck.

      I’ve also seen anecdata from people in China saying that people are dying before they can make it to the front of the queue at the hospital to be tested to see if they have the bug, bodies are going from hospital to crematorium with no record keeping etc.

      I’d be willing to bet a lot of money that the number of dead people in China is at least an order of magnitude more than is currently reported.

      • Hangzhou has just gone into quarantine.
        Hangzhou is not only a city of 10 million people, it is next to Shanghai!
        I think if things get out of control in Shanghai then the party will start to quarantine the entire country.

  4. Nasty overnight spike in cases in Japan, Thailand, Singapore and Korea.

    If this is going to get out of control, this is how it will start with clusters appearing in neighbouring cities.

  5. arthritic kneeMEMBER

    Heard from a Chinese mate living in Shanghai. All areas colour coded on the map and different rules apply. 2 of the three entrances to their apartment have been physically locked (watch the cladding!) and the government has a man on the remaining door. Have to sign in / out if you go anywhere, must wear a mask. Movement discouraged in general. If anyone in your building tests positive you go into full lock down and the gov will bring food. All this in a city with supposedly only around 230 cases and a single death and a population not dissimilar to Australia.

    • It seems to be under control in Shanghai and Beijing due to these measures. The actual point of the exercise is to prevent people from Hubei from entering their building.

      • No it isn’t. Not at this point. It is to slow the virus by preventing local transmission and making it easier to identify and quarantine the sick. Things have gone a looong way past this being a Hubei issue.

      • Hangzhou which is a city of 10 million people right next to Shanghai has just gonw into a Wuhan style quarantine. If Hangzhou has had to do this then the virus in the Shanghai area is not under control.

    • Regrettably these are exactly the kind of measures that are required to break the chain of transmission in such cases. Expect we will need to see initial quarantine times of at least 2x the incubation period (i.e. 28 days) to put a reliable dent in the propagation of this disease.

    • arthritic kneeMEMBER

      With a quoted mortality rate of 2% (ish) I’m not sure I understand how a recovery to death ratio of over 2:1 is in anyway surprising or proves anything.

    • The WHO is an example of what happens when united front tactics are used to infiltrate and co-opt an Organisation to carry out the will of the CCP.

      The WHO is no more than a mouthpiece for the CCP on this issue.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        amazing to see the WHO acting in such a compromised way – chyna has them by the nuts somehow

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Logically yes. Those who are infected and recovers gets to leave, while those not infected is quatrantined until they’re infected or no one is infected for 14 days. Everyone on the ship will doing their best to get infected ASAP.