More evidence has emerged that Black Friday dampened Christmas retail sales, with NAB’s Cashless Retail Sales Index recording an annual rise in November followed by a decline in December:
Our data mapping suggests that the ABS retail trade measure will fall 0.1% m/m in December. The ABS printed a 0.9% gain in November, while we forecast 0.6% (revised to 0.5%).
The strong November print (and our expectation of a weak December figure) is likely a result of the relatively new and ever-expanding Black Friday sales bringing forward Christmas spending into November. This change in spending is yet to be fully incorporated in the ABS seasonal factors. Household goods, department stores and clothing and footwear all saw strong November prints but are (based on our forecasts) likely to fall in December, consistent with Christmas spending brought forward.
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Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
