Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks have found some resilience going into the end of the week after the late rally on Wall Street overnight saw a moderation of fear that has encapsulated markets over the Chinese coronavirus. Yen and gold buying has moderated while trading in offshore Yuan has also tempered slightly. Oil prices are likely to fall further as Japan bans travel to China and pilots in the US effectively ban travel from the continental US to the Middle Kingdom.

The Hang Seng Index has been able to stave off another selloff, lifting ever so slightly going into the close, currently up 0.2% to 26507 points, still keeping prices somewhere near the December level, wiping out all of the Xmas rally:

Japanese share markets rebounded despite some poor economic releases locally, with a selloff in Yen helping along, as the Nikkei 225 closed 1% higher to 23212 points, but still keeping it near its October lows. The USDJPY pair has put on a nice swing since the close of Wall Street overnight, now just back above the 109 handle going into the City open but looking unlikely to finish the week with a new session high:

The ASX200 is putting in a scratch session to finish the week, closing only 0.1% higher to 7016 points. The Australian dollar should have helped here by continuing its own deflation into the low 67’s against USD, still in a dominant downtrend going into the RBA meeting:

Eurostoxx futures are up to claw back the pre-Wall Street losses, but the S&P futures are steady as the four hourly chart of the S&P500 shows the market nearly ready to have a crack at the 3300 point level:

The economic calendar finsihes the week with three inmportant releases, namely EZ wide CPI, Canadian GDP and US core personal expenditure for December. Stay safe and have a great weekend!

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Comments

    • I was going to start ‘dry February’ today but I think a delay is in order — I’ll do it next year instead.

        • +1, perhaps this weekend links could include popular zombie / post apocalyptic film links. 12 Monkeys was suggested earlier today.

          • Naw …. A Boy And His Dog | 1975 Sci Fi | Full Movie

            At parts, this movie gets so strange you can’t do anything but laugh at it, which is definitely not a bad thing! A Boy and His Dog is not something that will ever be universally popular, but it is a great movie for late nights and all nerds. A classic piece of science fiction.

            The movie that inspired the Fallout video games! A post-apocalyptic tale based on a novella by Harlan Ellison. A boy communicates telepathically with his dog as they scavenge for food and sex, and they stumble into an underground society where the old society is preserved.

            The daughter of one of the leaders of the community seduces and lures him below, where the citizens have become unable to reproduce because of being underground so long. They use him for impregnation purposes, and then plan to be rid of him.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_L0I8uISoI

            Do have a gander at Harlan Ellison’s works ….

      • So was I. But the Mrs is singing in a band tonight so I’m gonna have to have a couple as I watch on

    • Same here, I quit my job, but still working and finishing up and today I need a drink more than anything…

        • Especially when you have managers determined to make you feel like shyte on your way out… The reason I am quitting is because the writing is on the wall and has been for 2+ years. They have too much headcount and they are making it harder and harder each year, so they are actively managing folks out. I’ve escaped the guillotine a few times, but they are working harder and harder to undermine me. Really being ramped up now, constant nitpicking etc..Typical American company, set huge ambitious targets (over Christmas / New Year period) and expect deliverables by end of January. Set up for failure.

          But I no longer need the big salary, just a job that pays the bills.. but it can really mess with your self confidence in yourself and your own abilities.

          • Just do a job… and finish…. what are they going to do? Fire you? Hire you back on an expensive contract?

            Fvck them!

          • Yeah I know mate, but after 11.5 years at the same place, I still for some reason care and wanted to leave on good terms. But there is a toxic workplace culture that has crept in, in the last few years and it’s really killed the vibe (as the lawyer from The Castle said). 🙂 It’s the vibe, it’s marbo.

            I’ve realised i’m a work-a-holic though and for some reason I’ve thought if I just work harder harder harder I’ll be fine, but it’s burnt me out bad. I need a funemployment period after this.

          • BTDTGTTS … Cut yourself some slack this time and fvck off on time just this once fer Christ’s sake… they won’t raise you a statue, nor will they write a ballad about you. They really don’t care. If they did, they would’ve tried to not let you leave.

            Missus is more important… twice as important now…

            Pull the plug. Shut it down. Flick a match. Go!

          • A few American firms have bought up local engineering firms here in Brissy and the culture changed dramatically. One of my mates is nearing retirement and they’ve spared him, so far, but he’s seen half his team fired in the past 6 months.

            A good news story though: another mate of mine in a specialist area of engineering (runways and airport assets) was managed out by his new American bosses and his job given to his junior side-kick. My mate just went freelance and has won contract after contract (at the expense of his old firm). It’s all about contacts/relationships and the junior guy just didn’t cut the mustard when it came to winning the business. Bet they wish they hadn’t been so hasty! Fck ’em.

            It’s rare to hear good news stories like that but I’m sure glad of this one especially given how this fella had been treated.

          • That is a good news story Dominic and thanks for sharing. I have a lot of allies in the company which has allowed me to stay this long, but after a while you get tired of fighting and I just want to go somewhere I’m better appreciated.

          • Yep and it’s those damn Scientologists that have really given me a damn hard time lately. Keep hassling me about getting clear.

            I’ll be happy to say who I work for once I’ve left. Not long now.

          • Gav – word of advice: let those sleeping dogs lie. Don’t name names unless you’ve got nothing else to lose. Let the morons to their own devices and close that chapter. You never know when this sh…tuff comes back at you. No one needs to know any details. You’ve already dropped more than enough hints to figure out.

      • Changing jobs and where you live…one of those is big, both at the same time can really get to you. All the best.

        • In the past I’ve viewed it as a positive, when left for Ireland, no job, no house, no prospects just hope. It all went fine. When I returned to Sydney I had the same job so it was easier, but now the mortgage is very manageable and the missus is able to move from Sydney to Melbourne and stay in the role, so we will have at least 1 income for a while. But she’s now up the duff, so I have about 3 months to find something new. I will be fine if I can find a job for $70-$80k p/year which with my industry and experience will be easy, but I am questioning if I don’t change career now. :).. Life eh..

          • Gav, There is a magnet on my fridge that I got in Ireland and it says “Feck it sure it will be grand” and I think this will be the case for your good self and missus n Bub,
            Enjoy reading your comments, you’re a young man with your head screwed on, Cheers

  1. Flights to Melbourne today include:

    CZ643 from Guangzhou
    CZ3073 Shenzhen
    JD461 Qingdao
    CZ321 Guangzhou
    MU737 Shanghai
    MF803 Xiamen
    GS7945 Chongqing
    CA165 Beijing
    CZ343 Guangzhou

    2000+ people. Sleep tight!

  2. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Hey, what happened to ‘resilience and adaptation’? The pandademic is a perfect fit for big scientify words.

    I’ve not heard those words for days now. They were too hard, weren’t they?

  3. Wellie it looks like some day traders are desperate for some volatility to pay the bills …. can’t earn a living … gotta be a wolf on its own …. so all kills [tm] are theirs … chortle … then some lament society … weird thingy … lool … shorting it to prosperity ….

  4. Qualitative Easing

    Right, CVNTs, own up who was on a Melbourne Tram yesterday. It was obviously one of you.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/this-is-racism-chinese-australians-say-they-ve-faced-increased-hostility-since-the-coronavirus-outbreak-began

    Pan, a 27-year-old Australian citizen with Chinese-Malaysian heritage, said she was left feeling unsafe following an incident she experienced on a Melbourne tram.

    “I was sitting on the tram when a white man came and sat next to me. He started talking about how Chinese people are spreading the coronavirus everywhere,”

    Don’t you know that it’s just racialist to talk like that!!

      • HadronCollision

        I mean , it’s a fact the guy was white , wasn’t it?

        Maybe should should have just “man”

        • That’s the thing about those pushing identity politics, it’s always about being in a certain class or group. Never just some bloke on the train was saying the problem is Chinese are spreading this new virus.

    • Oh dear! The precious little soul, got bruised, di’n’t ‘e? Let the Crime Minister administer 50cc of thoughts and prayers…. Stat!

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      It’s funny, the citizens of every country in the world have wanted a reason to boot Chinese tourists and students and now finally it’s a valid reason to keep the locusts out, japan Singapore Taiwan, lol they’re onto it

    • I’m Asian myself and avoid people speaking mandarin with a mainland Chinese accent in public places like the plague. It’s not racist, it’s self preservation. Non-Asians probably have difficulty distinguishing one group from another. No offense taken for them avoiding Asians in general. If you want to blame someone, blame the Chinese government. Blame those Chinese tourists who show total disregard for others’ well being for travelling all over the place despite being sick. It’s them tainting the image of all Asians in the eyes of non-Asians.

      • And a fair slab of blame to ScoWuh as well for doing sweet FA. Handing out pamphlets while other nations are quarantining people is down right fvcking negligent. The blunders just keep flowing. Hope you don’t cop too much sh1t.

      • And re-reading that article, what really irks me is how that [presumably Chinese] doctor took offense from a patient not shaking her hands. Well, when there is a respiratory virus going around, physical hand contact with other people is probably the last thing you want to do. So instead of agreeing to the “joke” and reinforcing the importance of avoiding physical contact and frequent hand washing, like a sensible doctor offering sound public health advice, she took offense as if it was a personal attack.

      • Non-Asians probably have difficulty distinguishing one group from another.

        It’s less about them having difficulty and more about them thinking there isn’t anything to distinguish.

    • Cloud at scale is a genuine game changer for vendors and commercial IT buyers. The commercial success of AWS and Microsoft Azure attest to that.

      You’re also correct in that “cloud” is also a badge for justifying insane valuations and guaranteed-to-fail business models. Just like “.com” and “web 2.0”.

      • Also good for proofs of concept and trials

        I work in eHealth so on premise trials /pocs don’t cut the mustard usually

        At scale /BAU, it depends

        • The old pacific peso era. Back when we exported stuff, relied on international tourism and didn’t import as many consumer essentials. Because we still made stuff.

          Good times.

          • Lmmao … all those industries were on deaths door after lack of capital investment to modernize, because they were being looted by both its administrators and investors. Even after having huge government concessions under the auspices of keeping labour employed.

            I could not even move my successful business from the US down here because the conditions were so behind the times, everything needed a complete demolition and a complete rebuild and I saw absolutely no inclination on the near horizon for that to happen.

            So instead I went back to Corp and was bemused to see most of the upper C-suite in the CBD pubs and water holes at 12 noon sinking piss on Fridays, then on top of all that Oz is at the tail end of all logistical routes, hence why most of our markets is centered around digital capitalism – because it negates the physical realities.

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    “But the 79-year-old said: “There is no need for more evidence to prove something that has already been proven and that does not meet the United States Constitution’s high bar for an impeachable offence.”
    He added: “The question then is not whether the president did it, but whether the United States Senate or the American people should decide what to do about what he did. I believe that the Constitution provides that the people should make that decision in the presidential election that begins in Iowa on Monday.”

    Sometimes old men can have wisdom ………..( ……I know…..I know ….boomers and all that …..)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51320848

    • Especially when the UK, whose banking sector remains a staggering >450% of GDP, comparable to its level pre crisis, is really quite an astonishing take.

      Then some around here bang on about economics …. wow ….

    • I was just thinking that if he was PM Dutton would be using the coronavirus as an opportunity to go authoritarian. For our own good, of course. Maybe we’ll see if I finally get to be right about something.

    • Have you seen who works in his office? Michael West has reported on it previously. The worst of the worst, with direct connections to the most evil companies and individuals. Smoco’s office would have asked a favour from one of their allies to produce the matrix, and would have formed part of voter research. Don’t know who does research for them though.

      • Crosby Textor. Michael West did a piece on the movement of Crosby consultants into FT roles for Scummo as part of the investigation into the sports rorts.

    • Wow, that’s gobsmacking. Channel 10 still exists.

      Maybe the leaking of that email was a shot across scummo’s bow. As in, there’s plenty more where that came from so if you even think of scapegoating the sheila we the Nats will dump on you.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Nah – just an otherwise quiet news day (who cares about a minor virus doing the rounds; bushfires approaching the national capital; Qantas thinking about announcing some very attractive flight deals to and from China), so they had to come up with something to fill the news bulletin?

  6. EU GDP looking unhealthy: https://www.investing.com/news/economy/euro-zone-gdp-falls-short-of-expectations-inflation-picks-up-2072709

    “The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said gross domestic product in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 0.1% quarter-on-quarter for a 1.0% year-on-year gain.

    Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2% quarterly and a 1.1% annual increase.”

    Mix in some coronavirus and presto, a very easy recession. France (-0.1%) and Italy (-0.3%) also had negative quarters.

  7. ha
    Prof Shaban said if you don’t clean your hands properly and then rub your eye, mouth or nose, this can actually pass on the infection, even if you have a mask on.
    “Masks are not the great answer people think they are,” he said.
    However, people who are sick should wear a mask when they go to the doctor to limit the droplets being released into the air when they sneeze or cough.
    Prof Shaban said the best thing to do to avoid infection is to wash your hands regularly, use an alcohol based rub afterwards and avoid large crowds where individuals may be unwell.
    The Coopers green was delicious as well.

      • I recently tried the limited edition coopers – can’t recall the name of the brew but it was 7.5% and getting close to $90 a case. 3 beers and I was falling off the stool. The ladies were real impressed I could tell..

      • You’ve definitely got a point, but it’s no light beer. For authenticity, should be taken from long necks.

  8. Well this is concerning:
    Jonathan Yu, a doctor at a university hospital in Wuhan, is on the front lines, testing patients for the coronavirus. Accurately spotting the virus isn’t easy and can take several attempts, he said.

    “A patient may be found as negative for the first or second test, and then found to be positive the third time,” said Yu. “It is like fishing in a pond: You did not catch a fish once, but that does not mean the pond does not have fish.”

    Another doctor in the city who declined to be identified said her hospital was facing shortages of testing kits to confirm that people have the disease, as well as lacking in spare beds and respirators for patients.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/china-virus-cases-surging-3-000-may-be-undercounting-infections?srnd=premium-asia

    • China can only produce 2000 test kits a day. It also doesn’t have the bed numbers to look after all those who do fall ill. So, it is likely that they aren’t identifying all the cases and the only thing that will keep the death rate low outside of China is it not growing to the point where it puts a strain on the hospitals.

      This has the potential to get really nasty.

      • Yep the bit that also really concerned me was that it can take 3 tests to successfully test for the virus! How many may have been turned away to infect others having one negative test. Also not sure how the testing compares to what is done in more developed countries but if its the same it should be concerning for other countries who have been claiming a whole bunch of people tested negative when they may in fact be a carrier.

      • And Singapore increasingly has a reputation as a China [email protected] So where does that put us? Probably at about the same level as Hong Kong and Macau — a semi-autonomous region of the PRC.

      • Front page of the DT tomorrow is calling out qantas and the Fed Govt for allowing the flights to continue.

        When the DT turns on you, you know you’re up Scummo creek without a paddle

          • People are oblivious to this. I have told my brothers and some close friends to stock pile a few kgs of rice as insurance against empty supermarkets. You should see the strange looks. It is such an unlikely scenario for them they are unwilling to even spend $20 to protect their families from starving.

          • Freddy I grabbed boxes of p2 Monday
            Told brothers in series of texts to do same (they’re in Melb and I’m northern nsw)
            They cracked jokes
            Finally managed to convince youngest to head to bunnings 40 mins from his joint -sold out (“you didn’t ring ahead?”), he managed to get some from total tools

            I also stocked up on lentils chickpeas uht soy milk (waves at dom) today, rice flour oil sugar tomorrow

            Olaf will think crazy, I would rather be looking at it than for it

            Some other non food stuffs too ,

            It will unlikely come to that so no harm done – we eat that stuff, but just in case ….

          • If shtf I reckon we’d be under something resembling martial law within a couple weeks of supermarkets becoming empty. I am happy to stock only 1-2 months as insurance against some form of order taking a little longer than expected.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            There’s also the small problem that most of our fuel is shipped from Singapore. What if it’s in lockdow? We’d have to dig into the Australias reserve stores, safe in fvcking Louisiana.

            Feckless pricks our leaders. How many system failure points can they create?

            No diesel, no stocked supermarket shelves.

          • Not much farmland in Singapore. A big difference between shutting the borders to civilians and shutting the borders to trade.