Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Markets took a sudden dive on risk today here in Asia on the back of the Chinese virus news with Yen safe haven buying exarcebating the fear. Stock markets are all at bubble like highs so it won’t take much to push over the whole edifice. Gold gained on the fear trade while the Aussie dollar was relatively stable as the big mover was offshore trading in Yuan, which leapt over 300 pips:

Chinese stocks have suffered the most, understandably with the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 1.5% going into the close to sharply retrace below the 3100 points level, while the Hang Seng Index has sold off even further, following through on yesterdays bearish engulfing candle, closing some 2.2% lower to 28125 points:

Japanese share markets fell back in line with the buying of Yen with the Nikkei 225 falling nearly 1% to 23865 points. The USDJPY pair has finally moved but its going down as safe haven Yen buying pushed it below the 110 handle but not yet below its previous 2019 highs:

The ASX200 was the best in the region, losing only 0.2% to finish at 7066 points. The Aussie dollar made new session lows but recovered later in the afternoon to be just above the mid 68’s, still way short of the 69 handle and nowhere near threatening a breakout:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures have taken a dive in line with the risk off mood in Asia, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing a possible return to the 3300 point level:

The economic calendar continues with the German ZEW survey plus Governor Carney talking amongst the policy wonks at Davos.

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Comments

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Colin’s reply to Reusa today had me remembering an amusing story,

      ColinMEMBER
      January 21, 2020 at 10:50 am

      Reusa Snubbed by the Missy Brahmins…. never thought I’d see the day.

      ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER
      January 21, 2020 at 3:35 pm

      Makes me think of a plumbing Job I was doing for a James Ruse (NSWs #1 selective High School) Teacher years ago.
      We were talking about the very few Australian Born students that attended this School now days.
      He said all the East Asian students were very respectful to him as a teacher but how the Indian students generally were not.
      He related this funny anecdote to me about how one group Indian students walking down the corridor wouldn’t step out of his way (a regular occurrence according to him) and one of them slammed shoulders with him.
      After both cursed, this teacher , an Anglo fellow I should add, turned and said loudly “Sudra” (calling the boy the lowest cast of Indian)
      “NO!” the Indian student said angrily, hitting his own Chest a couple of times, “Brahmin” he said indicating his High Hindu cast ranking.
      The Geography teacher then gently taped his own chest a few times, looked the boy in the eyes, and replied,….”White”.
      “Holly Sh!t”, I said laughing, “what happened next? did they report you?”, I asked.
      “No way”, he said, “they live and breath all that class sh!t,… and White trumps Brahmin!”
      We both laugh again and I say “Jeez ya a bold cvnt mate”.
      He clearly accepted this as very High praise.
      I got back to fixing his Kitchen sink.

  1. I can’t see why any Murdoch journalist should be allowed to
    comment on the ABC. It just gives them underserved respectability.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Whats going on with all the ABC coverage of the intensely boring and irrelevant coverage of all this Harry and Megan Shyte!
      Its been their lead story across most of their platforms for Days!
      Why?

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Keeps them from having to cover local politics …..which is sinking in a sea of corruption ……

      • Two reasons:
        1. It’s low risk; they aren’t going to get threats of budget cuts like they would if they reported on LNP corruption or the malignancy of Murdochism
        2. It appeals to the trivial progressive v conservative schism *within* the ruling class.
        Privileged progressives have always loved the republican cause. Every time Keating was in trouble in the polls in the early 90s he would bring up the Republic non issue. A few of the soft headed journalists clapped their hands uncontrollably and served as a temporary distraction to what was happening in the economy.
        And why shouldn’t a struggling young couple who have built their wealth all by themselves be allowed to leave the austerity of British royalty move to California and eke out a living through barefoot speeches at google, deals with Disney and other demands as come with being influencers.

        I don’t care at all about the republic distraction. Actually would prefer a hereditary Monarch to some libertarian billionaire influencer as President. Constitutional monarchies tend to be more egalitarian. Monarchy is the flipside of meritocracy, and meritocracy is just HS to justify neoliberalism.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          I’m surprised 😮 the Queen didn’t demote him to King Harry of Australia 🇦🇺. That would be a banishment.

          Queen Megan has got quite an Aussie ring. I reckon we’d all win.

    • Murdoch through his patsy copy boys hate the ABC firstly because the ABC consistently rates as a more trusted source of news and current affairs than News Corp. Secondly and foremost, Murdoch hates publicly funded news agencies as, apparently, they wreck the private provider business model. I’ll put it another way; if Murdoch provided a service that was worth subscribing to then he wouldn’t be concerned with the ABC. In stead, his crap business model has seen his newspapers and pay TV service loose subscribers and money hand over fist. Fvck you Murdoch.

  2. So glad to see Morrison hasn’t learnt much from the bush fires that early intervention is key to containing a disaster. Now we have coronavirus. A medical version of a natural disaster in the brewing that requires early intervention and federal / state coordination.

    Virus out break in China, couple of people dead, a few people sick. Government; yeh, be careful cvnts.

    Virus spreads, goes international. More people dead, hundreds sick in China, confirmed cases in Japan, Korea and Thailand. US Government reacts with body temp scanners at international airports, many countries follow suit. WHO dither, so does Morrison. Government Chief Medical Offer says all’s good, minimal chance of infection.

    Virus geographic heat map growing. Morrison reacts by installing a body scanner in Sydney as they have direct flights to Wuhan. That’ll fix it, we’re all safe now. First coronavirus case reported in Brisbane. Patient travelled to Wuhan via another port. Fvck. That wasn’t suppose to happen. Government CMO still reckons it’s all good.

    Cases now being reported in Beijing and Shanghai. Morrison issues a travel warning for Wuhan. We’re in safe hands apparently. CMO says all direct flights from Wuhan to Sydney are now being screened and other preventative measures in place on these flights. Um, what about those people arriving through other ports? How are they being screened? What are the broader boarder biosecurity measures in place to buffer (prevention is another matter) an infectious disease to provide time to prepare for a potential outbreak.

    The island fortress mentality in a lot of aspects is yet to catch up with the mass movement of people and so is a responsive Government.

    • Depends on a number of factors really.
      Overall I like a lot about the place, but unless you’re earning good money it’s probably not a great place to be. It’s an incredible place on the 1 hand, but homeless and unaffordable housing is a big issue.

      California is very liberal (blue democrat) so they won’t like you wearing a MAGA hat. Are you planning to move there?

        • I first visited in 2008, thought it was a fantastic place. (I also had much more liberal views and was all for immigration at the time) It’s slowly become worse and worse for those who are “low skilled”. Housing affordability is worse than Sydney in my opinion but aggregate data shows Sydney is worse. But I think the problem is some tech wages are so high in SFO that house prices are almost justified.

          Culturally the place has a lot of offer. I really like its history and bohemian roots which are in places if you look hard enough, but slowly being shoved out. I know quite a few people who live there and it’s always a struggle with long commutes, high rents or unaffordable housing.

          Also the company I work for over there, people work really long hours, it’s like they devote their lives to the company. And I just can’t do it myself anymore, I want my life back and I don’t enjoy the work as much as I used to. So I haven’t wanted to live and work there, had an opportunity a while ago, but the missus needed a green card, so I decided against the idea and went back to Australia instead.

          I find myself more and more misaligned with some Liberal views these days and the place definitely has an echo-chamber feel to it. So I would find it immensely frustrating having to keep my mouth shut all the time.

          Last week when I was there with some work colleagues (another who lives in Detroit) we walked into a Boba tea place in Palo Alto and I said to her, man this place feels like it’s another planet. She looks at me laughs and says, I know what you mean, I couldn’t live here either.

          I watched a documentary on the flight over for a film called “General Magic”
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTdyb-RWNKo
          It reminded me of all the things i loved about San Francisco, there is a real opportunity for those who want to dig in a give it a crack, but it feels very cut throat and it all moves so fast I find myself struggling to keep up.

          • JohnR…

            Its simple in the U.S. if you have enough money everything seems good, if not your one event away from being on the bottom.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Skip nailed it. It’s an incredible place if you have a lot of money, or if you have a lot of talent in the hot field of the day. There are a lot of smart and eccentric thinkers there, and the ambition of the enterprises makes Oz feel very Donald Horne.
            But a balanced family life, not unless you’re (very) wealthy.

    • Beautiful seattle is soon to become another SF hellhole now all the tech compies are moving their offices.

      Ironic, because “its so we can pay lower salaries because it’s not SF” – soon to make another city stupidly expensive and unaffordable for the locals.

  3. I’m sure god is looking forward to punching fvck through these cvnts:

    “Man abused by Christian Brothers deserves lower payout due to poor upbringing, lawyer says”

    In an open letter, delivered on the eve of a WA trial, the Christian Brothers have admitted several brothers sexually abused child migrant John Thomas Lawrence for years from the age of nine in two Perth boys’ homes.

    But a lawyer for the organisation has argued he deserves a lower compensation payout than what his lawyers have sought because his poor upbringing meant he had a low earning capacity, regardless of the abuse.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-21/letter-admits-christian-brothers-sexual-abuse-on-eve-of-trial/11887018

    Put that cvnt lawyer and his clients at the wrong end of a mortar range then wait a couple of hours, dropping a few short or ling here and there.

    • and depending on the judge these cvnts might be with a chance to win. not going to read this as I will not be able to sleep later.. will be raging all night.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      This is my baseball bat. There are many others like it, but this one is mine. My baseball bat is my best friend…

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Why can’t serial killers focus all their passions and talents on cvnts like that Lawyer.

      We’d all live them then.