Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets are creeping ever higher, lifting by the megabullish sentiment on Wall Street from Friday night with more record highs and new yearly highs the order of the day.

Chinese stocks have diverted in fortune again with the goosed Shanghai Composite lifting nearly 0.5% to almost start the week back above the 3100 points level, while the Hang Seng Index has sold off sharply after almost making a new session high, closing some 0.7% lower to 28848 points:

Japanese share markets are making a little headway with the TOPIX up 0.5% while the Nikkei 225 only managed a meagre 0.1% lift, closing at 24083 points. The USDJPY pair is going nowhere but remaining above the 110 handle and well above its previous 2019 highs:

The ASX200 is putting in another record high for a solid start to the trading week, closing 0.2% higher at 7079 points. A lower Aussie dollar continues to help although after the usual Monday morning gap, the Pacific Peso has strengthened a tiny bit, but still short of the 69 handle and nowhere near threatening a breakout:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are moderating going into the City open, although its probable we’ll see  yet another breakout to new highs, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still quite overbought although momentum is reverting:

The economic calendar starts the week with the release of the IMF world economic update but also watch out for a speech from ECB President Lagarde.

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Comments

  1. not long ago (doubt it was 12 months) when CSL traded at $200 I said to myself “Nick, if CSL hits $180 you should buy”. At one stage, from memory, they did fall under $200 but not sure how far below $200 and I remember I was really tempted. Anyway, today they closed $303.

  2. – Gold has gone back up to US$1561 at 6:00pm after falling back to US$1535 six days ago when Iran calmed down
    – Everything seems reasonably peaceful. Do we have a repo problem?

    • Repo problem has been “fixed” as FED is pumping $100bn every month. Now they say they are considering lending direct to Hedge Funds – if I understand this right broke hedge funds that is as no bank would lend them money.
      If I am right we are getting to peak stupid so gold goes up as hedge against uncontrolled printing. Everyone prints and everyone is cutting rates and no one can stop. All these money are finding its way into the stock markets and RE but lot of money goes into gold as some believe that we will not be able to print for ever and stock markets can’t go higher and higher forever. There is only so many shares broke companies can buy back with borrowed money.
      It is real fun to watch this show. Especially if you have bought lot of gold stocks few weeks ago. Market goes up and gold goes up. There has to be a signal there somewhere.
      Gold may fall again down to around $1500 but will be hard to keep it there as CBs can’t stop QE and cutting rates so my call for gold price is $1600 by Apr – all things equal.

      • – You are very close to Goldman who have had a call of US$1600 by end of March for a few months now.
        – On hedge funds, as you would know, they haven’t been going too well against index funds particularly the Macro ones.. So there could be a lot of cash being withdrawn from them right now. So how many are swimming naked?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      There was something on the wireless today about Straya not screening incoming because the WHO hasn’t recommended it yet.

      Safety first, Strayan style.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Straya does not do proactive, so when 30% of us are dead, buried and cremated is likely when the country may reluctantly think about the issue?

      • I guess it depends where that 30% comes from…. if it’s the oldbies, well, it’s G*d’s will, if it’s the unwashed class, well, they deserved it, because they didn’t wash nor did they pray enough. If it’s from the vibrants, well, who the fvck cares, there’s a whole lot more where those came from… it’s all good!

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      “quick quick panic panic everyone will die and house prices are crashing”.

      Meh. Typical sky is falling rubbish you get on here. The flu kills more people.

    • US has already started screening, I have no idea why we are not treating it the same as SARS.

      • Narapoia451MEMBER

        Well with SARs you only had a 98% chance of living, this one looks like 99%, so less of a fuss.

  3. Morrison’s fvckwittery never fails to plumb new loss. The NSW Minister and member of parliament who stayed and helped in his electorate while it burned being lectured by the cvnt who fvcked off on holidays while the nation burne that he has no idea what he’s talking about.

    “Prime Minister slaps down NSW Environment Minister over climate change comments”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/prime-minister-slaps-down-nsw-environment-minister-over-climate-change-comments-20200120-p53swj.html

        • On that note.
          Quite a few years ago a local street drunk started hassling my children( then aged 1 and 3 ) when we were walking down the street with them in a pusher.
          He was loud, drooled, spat, smelt, tried to kiss them , waved his fists at me and them – they were absolutely terrified.
          I asked him to desist and he didn’t.
          One day I saw him coming towards us again
          – I shoved the kids into the rather surprised hands of an acquaintance who owned the local nursery.
          – then I crossed the road, and explained to him in absolutely exquisite detail what was going to happen to him if he came near us again. (Through my work I had quite a close acquaintance who ran a locally well known squad of enforcers, and this acquaintance owed me a favour).
          Never had anymore trouble.
          The drunk used to cross the street when he saw me coming.
          Worth every bit of the five minute conversation.

        • Very effective.
          Didn’t have a car, was about 6 inches shorter and 20-25 kilos less than my opponent,and didn’t really want to attract the attention of the long arm of the law😊.

    • “Youngsters must not forget that they come here for a good life and indulging in such acts would only result in ruining their lives and careers because once they get a criminal record, they would not get a job and this might also have an impact on their visa status,”

      Nevermind that “indulging” in pedophilia causes extreme distress and problems to the victim and their families, communities and society. “Visa status” and their own self interest is the only concern for ALL Indians in Australia.

      https://www.sbs.com.au/language/english/indian-man-charged-for-allegedly-kissing-a-two-year-old-child

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Why is he not to be immediately deported after having his Cock and ball sacked removed?

  4. Sometimes I think Gotti is bi-polar. Cheering on Triggoscum in one article, the denigrating the RBA the next. Which is it Gotti?

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-should-stop-pretending-there-is-any-more-it-can-usefully-do-20200119-p53sp7.html

    Essentially, Australians buy and sell our houses among ourselves, bidding up the price of that little-changing stock of houses. Then we tell ourselves we’re all getting richer. Why is this anything other than damaging self-delusion? Why should the Reserve Bank be one of its chief promoters?

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Have you confused Gittins for Gotti?

      In any event, the RBA happy clappy angels of death will keep dropping rates to demolish savers and fixed interest income reliant retirees, as it is the only decent thing to do.