Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

It’s all guns blazing, bulls let loose in China shops – well, except China – as Asian stock markets are buoyed by the overnight lift on Wall Street with record highs and new yearly highs the order of the day.

Chinese stocks are still struggling to make gains despite the rest of the region with the Shanghai Composite lifting at the open but now squaring off going into the close, still below the 3100 points level, while the Hang Seng Index is also putting in a scratch session currently at 28870 points:

Japanese share markets are finally making headway with the Nikkei 225 up around 0.4% going into the close, currently at 24045 points. The USDJPY pair is pushing above the 110 handle and well above its previous 2019 highs:

The ASX200 is putting in another record high for a stellar finish to the trading week, currently up 0.5% going into the close at 7074 points. A lower Aussie dollar has helped where it has now dropped below the 69 handle as traders await both the fallout from the US/China trade deal and next month’s RBA meeting:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are suggesting yet another breakout to new highs, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 already overbought but still wanting to get moving, but I’m still wary of European bourses:

The economic calendar ends the week with two major releases, the EZ wide CPI print for December plus the latest Uni of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

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    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      Probably even less than 6.1 percent when you factor in the Chinese GDP bullsh!t exchange rate (3% Chinese = 1% Australian)

    • Bad.
      First no one believes those numbers and everyone I know tells me things are bad in China. This comes from people that have families there and in different parts of the country. As Chinese economy keeps slowing down demand for our products will fall as well.
      On top of that China agreed to buy stuff from US that they traditionally buy from us. Yes we will sell that stuff elsewhere but at lower prices. Also, as Chinese demand slows it will create overcapacity of many raw materials and will put even more pressure on price of Iron Ore, Coal etc..
      Any new stimulus from China will be controlled in a way that very little capital will escape into our RE. Also, any stimulus will be directed at high end industries where China wants to be in the future. Doubt they will continue to build empty cities.

      If I am wrong and China stimulates like it’s 2016 same amount of money and same way then it is very good for us.

    • America is sorta packing up to pan America in the near future, China’s future is all about the Silk Road and how that works with the E.U. so most of it is akin to watching tectonic plates moving.

      OZ near future will all be environmentally driven, at home, and how that translates to global market conditions. Who knows … could be a test bed for new approaches … sorta like the opposite of what the neoliberal tests did during the Howard years.

      • Its the same both ways Jacob, the U.S. blew how many bubbles up too the GFC and then proceeded to gift the largest wealth transfer to the top in modernity. Do you even remember all the pre and post GFC corruption and now Trump is banging on about the U.S. does not do socialism [?????], you know the democratic sort and not the revolution thingy ….

      • I would say heaps better than traditional housing, my only concern would be the polymer matrix used to incorporate the basalt solids. Per se the weakest place in traditional housing is the garage door to sustained winds, as well, roofing aerodynamics.

        The Astra build is 800SF, but they do have the Evo at 1000SF, which has a lower profile.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          “my only concern would be the polymer matrix used to incorporate the basalt solids.”


          • LOL NO … that would be the house in Pasadena that just through the front door had a 3 story octagonal room, in Besser Block, which was done in a basalt tinted cement and embedded with obsidian. The owner was a mad Northern Native American art collector, a Totem pole went in the center and smaller objects went into recesses with down lighting.

            Lmmao don’t get me started on the entry way toilet in Pacific Palisades done in Italian green marble, floors, walls 49″ up, and one piece sink. Heck had to angle grind the original poop pipe to fit an elbow in just to get the throne to be plum between walls. So there is me and my builder mate with goggles and masks on in a confined space, next thing you know a bloke pops in and asks about all the noise. Fk’en Bill Cosby from across the road decided to crash the party so he could have a sticky beak, cigar and all … had I known …

          • Lmmao blokes that’s just the tip of the ice burg … where have all you been … the surrounds of the “thousand screams” of the burbs.

            FFS I grew up taking the big Atlantic ships to England, then across the channel, Grandfather would pick up Benz at factory and then tour Germany and France. On passage to home the car would be transported by sea and then rail whilst everyone else flew back. Yet a cosmopolitan Jew married to a German Lutheran [don’t piss her off] from high end Chicago relocated to Arizona. Thing is in that day a reasonable amount of civic duty was forthcoming, responsibility of wealth and successes, crap I remember deals on a hand shake.

            So what agency screwed everything up and why …. sigh …

        • Its corn based in this case, albeit I think the basalt would be a deterrent, its early days and that can be sorted. That said I support traditional housing at this juncture for various economic reasons, you would be fully aware of, yet we need to dial up the next Gen to transition too. Really don’t want anyone to go through a messy transtion – see history.

      • You know if I was to pop a few 100K on something it would be like this, after doing a discovery, then might even go 500K large, not half the other human and planet destroying stuff some seek yield on.

      • On preexisting structures I think that is a necessity, although new builds is another thing all together, need to transition away from the inherent weaknesses of past building in a new environmental setting.

  1. Scott From Marketing just knocked on my door – a guy offering discounted solar panels funded by Fed Gov.

          • I’m renting at less than half the median in my area and putting up a fence with my own labour …. chortle ….

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Rented for a while as was transitioning between ..HOMES ….not houses …not property ladders ….. not units of housing market …but ….HOMES ……used to love the look on the faces of the keen bright young thing real estate agents who would door knock offering a free market appraisal…….

            Sorry mate …I’m the Tennant …you need to contact the landlord ……

            Look changes to condescension …….bordering on disgust…..

            One has to reflect with sadness how fast one of the once most promising societies in the world has disintegrated …….

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Don’t waste opportunity!

            I’ll gently guide them into an outline of the sheer f#ckwittery that is Straya’s housing market. Gently though so as not to scare them off too early in the game. Watch the conflicting emotions rush across their faces as they try to get a handle on the obviously insane owner who for some unknown reason won’t put down his fat Jack Russell, a beast that may well be insane too because it never stops staring at their left eye. Only ever the left. Sometimes you see a tic develop. Fascinating. Anyhow, they have to deal with the insane man because it could mean a fat cheque in the future. It destroys their confidence because they can’t start their well rehearsed spiel.

            Make them uncomfortable for at least 15 minutes before letting on, just to ruin their shallow little day.

          • FMD….imagine being looked down on by a real estate agent. This implies that a renter is the second lowest form of life in Australia, even counting politicians, financial advisers, bank executives, catholic priests and paedophiles(but I repeat myself).

            As a renter, I’m now suffering considerable emotional distress. I know this, because I experienced an emotion previously. It was hate, but anyway, where do I seek compensation for this distress?

    • A migrant who works to bring in more migrants? Him and his fat ugly wife can fcuk right off.

    • I’ll have to retweet this with multiple accounts, hopefully get a few more vibrants onto an Air Canada flight.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          I do wonder though how many dodgy loans and blocks of dirt at Tarneit are they running away from.

          Ungrateful aspirationals always have at least one or the other.

          • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

            I employed an Indian 5 years ago for just general factory duties, he turned up most days for 6 months then disappears. A few weeks later the debt collectors start calling, this guy left the country with every buy now pay later device he could get his hands on. Only thing that made me happy about it was that he was gone and he fked over Gerry Harvey as well 😆

          • I’ve known a few Aussies who have done that when leaving the UK. I even met a Brit who did it. When I asked him why he said he isn’t planning on going back. He was also believed that all is forgiven after 7 years.

            That’s one of the things I don’t get about all of the “this group is dodgy” griping on here. For almost everyone if them I can think of the same scam, or acts of rudeness and selfishness, been done by dodgy Australians. The execution may be a tad different but it’s just the same turd rolled in different glitter. Corruption. Check. Poor manners and rudeness. Check. General dodginess. Check. Kids hanging out in gangs and causing trouble. Check. (Perhaps I’ve just resided in rougher parts of this great brown land than others.) I still think that immigration should be lowered to the historical average but the picking on groups just leaves me scratching my head.

          • That’s one of the things I don’t get about all of the “this group is dodgy” griping on here.

            It’s about “culture”, you see.

            Some “cultures” are superior to others, so when people from that “culture” are antisocial, it’s because they as an individual are a dick.

            Some “cultures” are inferior, so when people from that “culture” are antisocial, it’s because they as a group are all dicks.

            Unfortunately, you are inescapably tied for life to your “culture”, so if you choose the wrong one, well, that’s just your own fault.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        My guess is they can’t get the oldies over for free medical treatment.

        Geez, that article really, really sucks.

        • Jumping jack flash

          I guess it depends on which debt-soaked country blinks first. It does look like Australia is it this time. Canada and most of the developed world isnt much better off than we are. The same recipe for instant riches using enormous debt piles attached to houses was followed by most countries on earth. Makes sense. Why mess with perfection?

    • “most importantly you can easily sponsor your family members”

      Code for getting other tax payers to sponsor your family members.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      They’re representative of pretty much every Indian I’ve had to deal with, it’s their culture, and don’t ever forget it, never evAR will I employ another Indian as long as I live, it’s like their only goal in life once their employed is to Fk you over

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Many years ago I remember being at a hotel counter where one of my Indian colleagues in a multinational company handed over 6 suits for dry cleaning on the company tab ……it was a 3 day conference ……nuff said…

      • Use to sell furniture and whitegoods many years ago (and no, I’m not Craig FatBelly) and of all the customers Indians were the worst. Everyone drove a bargain, no issues with that considering the cost price for that $1200 lounge suite was about $300 – that’s why Harvey Fvckwit can have 50% sales and still make good coin but I digress.

        The Asians, in fact everyone liked to barter but knew when the point was reached but Indians were in a league of their own to the point the floor staff avoided them, fvck the sale. Had one cvnt argue from more discount when I got the sh1ts and said “you own a shop in X suburb. How about I come into your shop and we do a deal?” Cvnt said “you’re stealing the food from my children’s mouth” Seriously, WTF? Politely told the cvnt to fvck off and don’t want his business.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Migration agent and education agent …… those are the sort of skills this country needs ……..WTF are you doing Straya ?…….to lose such skills to Canada is a fcuking disgrace …….shame Straya …shame …….

    • Flammable Cladding

      “I am extremely frustrated. I have done everything ever suggested to me and yet there is no hope in sight of getting the permanent residency. My cousin went to Canada as a truck driver two years ago and he already has a PR. So tell me if I don’t deserve any better?

      Ah yes ‘i deserve’, the chorus of the vibrants!



    Given this, I wonder whether companies are being counterproductive in trying to maximise their profits. If companies are profitable and invest to grow their profits then the RBA won’t cut rates and thus the company share price will rise less than if the management kept the thing on life support. This new paradigm will require reconsideration of concerns like whether China buys our exports, it may be preferable for the creation of shareholder value if they didn’t.

    • Crap half of all this started with LBOs and fattened C-corp cows al la Munger E.g. any mid or large cap Corp with cash reserves were just big targets, hence the original stock buy backs to drain cash holdings aka savings.

      Me personally, from having watched it in real time, would suggest the amount of stimulants involved since WWII and how success is won in retrospect – latter day observations could be something about blow and happy endings.

      I mean … I know personally some BSD that were shaving an aquatic mammal that lives in waterways at the crack of dawn in a hallway only to punch out because they had a court appearance or board room meeting.

      Not to mention all the white collars investing in criminal stuff for yield multiplexers and the middlemen that hived off risk, then some are befuddled about why the money [tm] is never accountable.

    • Come on man the Fed is quasi monetarist, still trickle down and supportive of equity asset prices above all things because of corporatism and the geopolitical frackus, the rub is the original supporting caste was envisioned as owning the “rights” in perpetuity to it all … it did not work out as planed because some did not play by their rules … because they break them at every corner if it means more market share, profit, or accent in the great scheme of things.

    • A few commentators reckon it is more to do with foreign pension funds. e.g. keep your money in EU and you get low yields in a depreciating currency, or move into USD and you get higher yield in an appreciating currency. It works brilliantly until it doesn’t…

  3. Where is everyone?

    I’m listening to Allman brothers unless someone can recommend something else not too aggressive but quite harmonically complex (in a guitar context).

  4. harold and snappy – ALK made some really good gains today. If you would have bought few weeks ago, when I told you to do so you would have collected nice profits today – if you would have sold today that is.