Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Most Asian stock markets slipped in trading today as the response to the cooler than expected US CPI print and a much higher Yuan, all in anticipation of the signing of the Phase 1 US/China trade deal takes risk off the table temporarily.

Chinese stocks are now struggling to absorbing the Yuan rise with the Shanghai Composite slipping below the 3100 points level, closing 0.4% lower at 3095 points, while the Hang Seng Index has fallen 0.6% to close at 28709 points. The daily chart shows some support as price remains elevated with solid momentum:

Japanese share markets fell back as well despite the Yen not rising significantly last night or during the session today, with the Nikkei 225 falling nearly 0.5% to 23916  points. The USDJPY pair has been unable to make any gains for awhile now, still above its 2019 highs but retracing slightly below the110 handle:

The ASX200 was the only market to advance in the region, again almost closing above the 7000 point level by lifting 0.4% to 6994 points. A steady and then slightly lower Aussie dollar has helped here where its still unable to exceed the 69 handle since the start of the trading week as this long swing trade reverts to the downside:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are suggesting a steady start to the Northern hemisphere session tonight, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing hesitation here just below the recent record highs:

The economic calendar has two major prints tonight, namely the latest German GDP and UK CPI releases, then the DOE oil inventory report.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • if these retail chains continue to go into administration at a rate of 1 per fortnight there will be trouble in paradise by mid March. The sentiment will go really pair shape and people’s wallets will just shut which in return will push few more retailers into administration. As we shut most of manufacturing down we will only be left with Mines and flipping houses.

    • Retail has been getting hammered for years now. I used to think each closure would cause unemployment to rise and house prices to fall. Now I’m like Jeans West? Did I ever shop there? No. That’s why it failed. Retail is all moving online. Regardless of how low the rates go it won’t help. Bricks and Mortar are dead. Online is and will keep killing it.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I did buy jeans there, but I go a long time between purchases.

        It’s fashion-snubbing tightarses like me that are destroying this once great shopping mall…sorry, country.

        • Bot doesn’t like l3sbians…..

          Did I tell you I bought a pair of those l3sbian sandals at the Kathmandu sale?

          I’m about to wear them for a trek to Marrickville Metro.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Do they like sensible shoes? There’s a tale from the northern areas of NSW, an area that has become a sensible shoe wearing lady mecca. Apparently there was a whole bunch of city type sensible shoe wearing ladies who moved into that area thinking they’d fit in, not realising that the sensible shoe wearing and short haired ladies already living there weren’t sensible shoe wearing ladies at all. No, they were the farmer’s wives. The CWA. Apart from the initial disappointment everyone gets along famously now.

            This is how stereotyping can change the world for the better. I think.

      • I drove through Fitzroy and Clifton Hill yesterday not having been there for many months. Brunswick St has AT LEAST every third shop vacant – not only that it looks only slightly better than a South African slum – sorry, but it is a total disgrace and City of Yarra should be ashamed.

        Clifton Hill was only marginally better – but still plenty of boarding up over windows.

        Brunswick st saw their biggest music store which had been an institution close down many years ago – it has been completely empty ever since.

        Really is a pathetic place – Below Johnson st is basically empty except a few pubs and TV installation store ??

      • Not really true. Pure Play Online retailers (only online stores) is about 2-3% of total retail sales.
        Not much. Its growing about 1% every 3-4 years.
        I just don’t think most people have any money left

    • Curious Planet: The science store, formerly known as Australian Geographic is set to close 63 stores.

      Napoleon Perdis: Beauty retailer entered voluntary administration, with stores closing across the country.

      Criniti’s Restaurant: Popular restaurant chain entered voluntary administration, with several of the 13 sites across the country set to close.

      Bardot: Women’s fashion retailer will shut vast majority of its stores over the coming months. 530 jobs will be lost.

      McWilliams Wines: Country’s sixth-largest wine company appointed voluntary administrators. Had been run by same family for more than 140 years.

      EB Games: Video game retailer closing at least 19 stores in ‘unprofitable’ locations across the nation.

      Red Rooster: Closed seven Queensland stores in October 2019, leaving 100 staff without jobs.

      Ed Harry: Menswear retailer went into voluntary administration and closed all 87 outlets across the country.

      Harris Scarfe: Australian department store placed into voluntary administration in mid-December.

      Karen Millen: British fashion giant closing all Aussie stores, leaving 80 people without work.

      Zanui: Popular furniture and homewares company entered voluntary administration.

      Muscle Coach: Leading fitness company put into voluntary administration after company racked up debts of almost $1 million.

      Dimmeys: Discount retailer closed its doors for good after 166 years of trading.

      • When the sh!t really hits the fan and some utter imbecile utters that phrase, it is going to take E-V-E-R-Y ounce of will to resist clenching my fist and striking them in the head like Fedor Emelianenko vs Mirko Cro Cop.

  1. Long time viewer, first time commenter. Thanks for all the efforts.
    It was a lovely intro email, i’m just wondering about this bit

    “With every post on our website, you’ll be invited to comment.

    That’s right, we value your honesty, your feedback and your wisdom. Hence, this long-winded email.

    Don’t be shy about adding your two cents and calling it as you see it! You know that we won’t be holding back!.

    Yours faithfully,

    David Llewellyn-Smith”

    Is there any kind of caveat to this? I have a lot of two centses.

    • Be careful at prosaic turns of phrase: some unexpectedly trigger ModerationBot and your post ends up ‘up for moderation’. It’s very rarely a “personal” thing, more likely an automated filter system will tag your post as inappropriate.

      Tune your sarcasm detector to the max then break the button off.

      There’s more, but others should have a go.

    • I was once on a forum where the admin had the Voltaire “defend your right” quote as a their signature. Admin ended up threatening bans and physical harm. I asked if Voltaire was a schizo.

    • Ah I see – Gordon Horticulture. We have a salt of the Earth member called Ermington Plumbing.

      ermo, meet gordo.

    • Overall I’ve found the MB mods to be pretty sensible. If you’re making a genuine attempt to contribute to the discussion and not being a total dweeb I don’t expect you will have a problem. The main reason I frequent this site is for the opinions; both the ones with which I agree and the ones I don’t.

      • To be fair, they only get upset if you are right and they disagree with your position in same way.:)

      • got that – Andy NgoVerified account

        Editor-at-large – @TPostMillennial. Help bring the violent antifa members that beat & robbed me to justice

        Just wanted to see T justify the claim, Sanders is to the l right of Eisenhower, but left to Clinton and Obama. Today’s show seems to indicate Warren is in the Hillary – Obama circle now – VP for Biden?

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      So some nobody stoner talking shyte is indicative of what we can expect from a “Socialist” President Sanders.

      For the record the Bolshevism, Leninism and Stalinism of the USSR and it’s Gulags were a RIGHT wing deviation of left Marxism.
      The core tenant of Socialism is workers control over decision making and production yet the workers councils and elected soviets were immediately dismantled by Lenin as soon as he gained state power.
      This was a Right wing action.
      The USSR was, like Nazi Germany and China today, a Right wing military dictatorship, in spite of whatever they chose to call themselves.
      The capitalist West was happy to play along with these incorrect ”they are Socialists” narratives because it served to limit people’s democratic demands and power at home.

      If you truly believe the gulags of USSR were a product of Socialism and ”left wing ideology”, like Jordan Peterson, then maybe you guys have been manipulated, beguiled and indoctrinated by one of the largest and most persistent pieces of “Fake news” of all Time

      Ask yourself every now and then if what you know to be “True”,….really is true.

      • That may provide a pointer to the answer to the question “How do you know when the left has gone too far?” As in: when it facilitates power being handed to the far right.

      • So some nobody stoner talking shyte is indicative of what we can expect from a “Socialist” President Sanders.

        It’s also Project Veritas, who have a long history of both a) goading people into saying something that can easily be taken out of context and then b) presenting it out of context.

  2. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Listened to this clip posted in H&Hs “ScoMo the psychopath” thread, on the way to a job at bloody Mortdale!, this morning.

    Our whole “Democratic system” is Just so FKen grubby!

    January 15, 2020 at 7:57 am
    Dastyari explaining how Morrison used him to undermine a fellow liberal. Everyone needs to see this.

    • Social Darwinism aka Survival of the Fittest … where the right has always been and the rest have followed … because Markets … Die.

    • Reusa probably wiped a tear from his eye listening to how beautiful ScoMo robbed the other candidate here.

    • he would never have been re-elected without journalism.
      And I’m yet to see any contrition from the people who put him there. ie. Murdoch .

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Ace Gutters at Mortdale has a great plumbing supplies with good parking and service and the area seems nice enough.
        I would get an account there if the place wasn’t an hours drive from my place (more on the way home!).
        The reason I work for myself is to be close to home.
        That’s why I call it Ermington Plumbing.
        Quite a few people criticised this company name saying a lot of people in Sydney don’t even know where Ermington is.
        My reply always was,
        Well if they don’t know where Ermo is, then it is Highly Fken unlikely they live close enough to me for me to want to do their fking job.
        But I’ve had quite a few regulars move away and I don’t like knocking back replete/referral jobs,…so every now and then I go to fking Mortdale or Fking Windsor or The Fking mountains or worst of all the Fking inner west!

        I draw the line at the fking city and eastern eastern suburbs though.
        I’ve done my fair share of working Fking there!
        Never again!

  3. Geez, I read this page after watching GoT S8e3. The hopelessly endless fight to end all fights in Winterfel, & this seems just as grim…… Where’s our Aria Stark?