Jobs weak but…

But not weak enough for RBA’s meeting, I suspect. Via ABS:


  • Employment increased by 28,900 to 12,981,600 people. Full-time employment decreased by 300 to 8,834,700 people and part-time employment increased by 29,200 to 4,146,900 people.
  • Unemployment decreased by 12,900 to 693,100 people.
  • Unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 5.1%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 66.0%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 8.2 million hours to 1,791.1 million hours.


  • The monthly trend underemployment rate remained steady at 8.3%. The monthly underutilisation rate remained steady at 13.5%.
  • The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate remained steady at 8.3%. The monthly underutilisation rate decreased by 0.1 pts to 13.4%.

Weak given the rubbish jump in part time jobs but not terrible given the lift in hours worked.

It is line ball but probably favours RBA hold for next meeting.

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  1. so Jan jobs will be -40k. All those part time jobs that lasted 1 week and were cut due to bush fires and end of Christmas.

    • Just saw that bounce
      Market is still slightly short AUD and short EURO,
      Could we see a quick sell off in DXY push AUD and Euro up to clear the shorts
      Before the next leg down in AUD
      Think we need to, to see 50s

      And if RBA doesn’t cut AUD gets pushed up and bonds sell off again , dow keeps coming off ASX will get hammered

      How’s the rise in ASX last 2 weeks, was 6680 around 2 weeks ago

      I can’t remember ASX rising that fast especially after already being up 25% in 12 months

      If this all lines up and turns it’s going to get very nasty

      • I think the wake up call for AUD will be next month with the next employment numbers and all shopping centres reporting massive retail space vacancies.
        Now time for the show: Watch Josh and Scumo now talking how great job they are doing.

        • Ok well that matches up with my timing, I said the other day I wouldn’t be surprised to get one more bounce in AUD, before down, I don’t say with much conviction but nothing seems to make much sense, let’s keep an eye on it but interested to see what jobs numbers come next
          I’m switching the news off if I have to watch scomo gloating

    • I’m about to convert a couple hundred $USD to $AUD. I think I’ll do it before RBA meeting. I think they’re gonna HODL for now. So want to convert while $AUD is subdued. Got my settlement on the house at end of Feb. So don’t have more time to wait it out.

      • RBA will hold unless some bad news come
        based on ABS going full steam fake news I doubt government will allow any bad news going out
        I think HOLD at 80% probability so AUD a bit down
        if you are exchanging few hundred dollars why would you care …