Big Four banks delay rate cuts, go long virus cures

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Via JPM which says the hit will be 0.2% of GDP in Q1:

“Chinese visitors represent around 15 per cent of total short-term arrivals. Assuming Chinese arrivals are down by more than 75 per cent (similar to the SARS episode) for the next two months (the length of the ban on tour groups, for example), tourism industry data on the average spend of Chinese visitors suggests a drag of 0.1 percentage point of GDP in the first quarter.”

“We are downgrading 1Q GDP growth by 0.1 percentage point for both Australia and New Zealand, to incorporate the drag on services exports.”

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.